Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released March 10, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 2 Percent from February The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.84 million tons, up 2 percent from the February 1 forecast and 8 percent above the 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million tons), is up 3 percent from the February 1 forecast and 6 percent above last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), up 6 percent from February and 2 percent higher than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. In Florida, fruit size is projected to be below average while droppage is projected to be above average. The forecast for Texas is carried forward from February. The California Valencia orange forecast is 13.0 million boxes (520,000 tons), down 7 percent from the previous forecast. This brings California's all orange forecast to 59.5 million boxes (2.38 million tons), down 2 percent from the February 1 forecast. Objective survey measurements taken during January and February indicated that fruit set per tree was down compared with last year, while measured average fruit size was smaller than the previous year. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season's yield of 1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.62 gallons per box, 1 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on March 10, 2011. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Karis T. Gutter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2009 and 2010..... 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted March 1, 2011........................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)...................... 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)............................ 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)........................ 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units).............................. 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)........................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)............................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature.................................................................... 12 February Weather Summary............................................................................. 13 February Agricultural Summary........................................................................ 13 Crop Comments........................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.............................................................................. 15 Information Contacts................................................................................. 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2009 and 2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 : 2009 : 2010 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 370.0 375.0 35.9 32.7 13,283 12,263 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 20.3 15.7 65.6 76.3 1,332 1,198 Louisiana 2/ .................: 390.0 390.0 32.2 29.0 12,558 11,310 Texas 2/ .....................: 36.7 49.0 36.0 33.0 1,321 1,617 : United States ................: 817.0 829.7 34.9 31.8 28,494 26,388 : For seed : Florida ......................: 17.0 19.0 38.6 37.3 656 709 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 1.9 1.5 26.3 30.0 50 45 Louisiana 2/ .................: 35.0 30.0 32.2 29.0 1,127 870 Texas 2/ .....................: 3.0 3.0 35.0 33.0 105 99 : United States ................: 56.9 53.5 34.1 32.2 1,938 1,723 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 387.0 394.0 36.0 32.9 13,939 12,972 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 22.2 17.2 62.3 72.3 1,382 1,243 Louisiana 2/ .................: 425.0 420.0 32.2 29.0 13,685 12,180 Texas 2/ .....................: 39.7 52.0 35.9 33.0 1,426 1,716 : United States ................: 873.9 883.2 34.8 31.8 30,432 28,111 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2010 Summary" released January 12, 2011. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted March 1, 2011 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and navel 2/ : California 3/ ..............: 42,500 46,500 1,594 1,860 Florida ....................: 68,600 70,000 3,087 3,150 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,360 1,360 58 58 : United States ..............: 112,460 117,860 4,739 5,068 : Valencia : California .................: 14,000 13,000 525 520 Florida ....................: 65,000 72,000 2,925 3,240 Texas 3/ ...................: 275 280 12 12 : United States ..............: 79,275 85,280 3,462 3,772 : All : California .................: 56,500 59,500 2,119 2,380 Florida ....................: 133,600 142,000 6,012 6,390 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,635 1,640 70 70 : United States ..............: 191,735 203,140 8,201 8,840 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 6,000 5,600 255 238 : Colored : Florida ....................: 14,300 14,000 608 595 : All : California 3/ ..............: 4,200 3,500 141 140 Florida ....................: 20,300 19,600 863 833 Texas 3/ ...................: 5,600 5,700 224 228 : United States ..............: 30,100 28,800 1,228 1,201 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ 4/ ................: 350 300 13 12 California 3/ 4/ .............: 9,900 9,600 371 384 Florida ......................: 4,450 4,400 211 209 : United States ................: 14,700 14,300 595 605 : Lemons 3/ : Arizona ......................: 2,200 2,500 84 100 California ...................: 20,500 21,000 779 840 : United States ................: 22,700 23,500 863 940 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 900 1,100 41 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80 (67 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-85, Texas-80; lemons-80 (76 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-95. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,872 2,465 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 88,192 81,446 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,567 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 59,862 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,956 All other ....................: (NA) 39,906 Oats ...........................: 3,138 1,263 Proso millet ...................: 390 363 Rice ...........................: 3,636 3,615 Rye ............................: 1,211 265 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,404 4,808 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 273 Wheat, all .....................: 53,603 47,637 Winter .......................: 37,335 40,990 31,749 Durum ........................: 2,570 2,529 Other spring .................: 13,698 13,359 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,448.8 1,431.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 421 418 Mustard seed ...................: 50.5 48.1 Peanuts ........................: 1,288.0 1,255.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.3 2.2 Safflower ......................: 175.0 167.7 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,404 76,616 Sunflower ......................: 1,951.5 1,873.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 10,973.2 10,706.7 Upland .......................: 10,769.0 10,505.0 American Pima ................: 204.2 201.7 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,171.4 1,155.7 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 883.2 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 337.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 31.2 17.9 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,911.4 1,842.7 Dry edible peas ................: 756.0 711.4 Lentils ........................: 658.0 634.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.3 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 71.3 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,020.6 1,004.3 Spring .......................: 88.8 85.9 Summer .......................: 38.1 37.1 Fall .........................: 893.7 881.3 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 18.6 Sweet potatoes .................: 119.8 116.9 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 73.1 180,268 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 152.8 12,446,865 Corn for silage ....................tons: 19.3 107,314 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 145,556 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 67,903 All other ........................tons: 1.95 77,653 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 81,190 Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.8 11,535 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 6,725 243,104 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 7,431 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 71.8 345,395 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 12.5 3,420 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.4 2,208,391 Winter ........................bushels: 46.8 1,485,236 Durum .........................bushels: 42.4 107,180 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.1 615,975 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,713 2,450,947 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,191.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.7 9,056 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 870 41,861 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,311 4,155,600 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,891 4,160 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,320 221,335 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 43.5 3,329,341 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,460 2,735,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 821 18,314.5 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 814 17,817.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,184 497.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.6 31,945 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 31.8 28,111 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,133 719,786 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,666 237 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,726 31,801 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,999 14,221 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,365 8,657 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 580 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,250 7,900 Hops .............................pounds: 2,093 65,492.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,363 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 395 397,077 Spring ............................cwt: 289 24,820 Summer ............................cwt: 311 11,530 Fall ..............................cwt: 409 360,727 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 125 2,318 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 204 23,845 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,162,270 997,560 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:35,690,420 32,960,380 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,252,910 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 24,225,550 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 8,075,990 All other ....................: (NA) 16,149,560 Oats ...........................: 1,269,920 511,120 Proso millet ...................: 157,830 146,900 Rice ...........................: 1,471,450 1,462,950 Rye ............................: 490,080 107,240 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,186,940 1,945,750 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 110,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:21,692,600 19,278,220 Winter .......................:15,109,100 16,588,240 12,848,500 Durum ........................: 1,040,050 1,023,460 Other spring .................: 5,543,440 5,406,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 586,310 579,110 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 170,370 169,160 Mustard seed ...................: 20,440 19,470 Peanuts ........................: 521,240 507,890 Rapeseed .......................: 930 890 Safflower ......................: 70,820 67,870 Soybeans for beans .............:31,324,620 31,005,730 Sunflower ......................: 789,750 758,310 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,440,740 4,332,890 Upland .......................: 4,358,110 4,251,270 American Pima ................: 82,640 81,630 Sugarbeets .....................: 474,050 467,700 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 357,420 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 136,560 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 12,630 7,240 Dry edible beans ...............: 773,520 745,720 Dry edible peas ................: 305,950 287,900 Lentils ........................: 266,290 256,570 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,660 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 28,850 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 413,030 406,430 Spring .......................: 35,940 34,760 Summer .......................: 15,420 15,010 Fall .........................: 361,670 356,650 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,530 Sweet potatoes .................: 48,480 47,310 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.93 3,924,870 Corn for grain .........................: 9.59 316,164,930 Corn for silage ........................: 43.21 97,353,620 Hay, all 1/ ............................: 5.45 132,046,180 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.63 61,600,570 All other ............................: 4.36 70,445,620 Oats ...................................: 2.31 1,178,470 Proso millet ...........................: 1.78 261,610 Rice ...................................: 7.54 11,027,010 Rye ....................................: 1.76 188,760 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.51 8,773,440 Sorghum for silage .....................: 28.08 3,102,570 Wheat, all 1/ ..........................: 3.12 60,102,550 Winter ...............................: 3.15 40,421,500 Durum ................................: 2.85 2,916,960 Other spring .........................: 3.10 16,764,090 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.92 1,111,730 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,616,380 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.36 230,030 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.98 18,990 Peanuts ................................: 3.71 1,884,950 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.12 1,890 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 100,400 Soybeans for beans .....................: 2.92 90,609,810 Sunflower ..............................: 1.64 1,240,830 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ .........................: 0.92 3,987,510 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,879,190 American Pima ........................: 1.33 108,320 Sugarbeets .............................: 61.96 28,980,020 Sugarcane ..............................: 71.35 25,501,870 Tobacco ................................: 2.39 326,490 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.48 10,750 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.93 1,442,470 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.24 645,050 Lentils ................................: 1.53 392,670 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 26,310 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: 1.41 3,580 Hops ...................................: 2.35 29,710 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, all 1/ .......................: 44.32 18,011,110 Spring ...............................: 32.39 1,125,820 Summer ...............................: 34.83 522,990 Fall .................................: 45.88 16,362,300 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 1,050 Sweet potatoes .........................: 22.86 1,081,590 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 1,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................tons: 1,228 1,201 Lemons .................................tons: 863 940 Oranges ................................tons: 8,201 8,840 Tangelos (Florida) .....................tons: 41 50 Tangerines and mandarins ...............tons: 595 605 : Noncitrus : Apples ...............................pounds: 9,286.6 Apricots ...............................tons: 65.5 Bananas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 20,900 Grapes .................................tons: 6,856.8 Olives (California) ....................tons: 190.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 27,500 Peaches ................................tons: 1,151.3 Pears ..................................tons: 807.6 Prunes, dried (California) .............tons: 125.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .tons: 12.3 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ........pounds: 1,650,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........tons: 27 Pecans, in-shell .....................pounds: 259,660 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........tons: 510 Maple syrup .........................gallons: 1,955 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ...............................: 1,114,020 1,089,530 Lemons ...................................: 782,900 852,750 Oranges ..................................: 7,439,820 8,019,510 Tangelos (Florida) .......................: 37,190 45,360 Tangerines and mandarins .................: 539,770 548,850 : Noncitrus : Apples ...................................: 4,212,330 Apricots .................................: 59,400 Bananas (Hawaii) .........................: 9,480 Grapes ...................................: 6,220,360 Olives (California) ......................: 172,370 Papayas (Hawaii) .........................: 12,470 Peaches ..................................: 1,044,440 Pears ....................................: 732,640 Prunes, dried (California) ...............: 113,400 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ...: 11,160 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ............: 748,430 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .............: 24,490 Pecans, in-shell .........................: 117,780 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...........: 462,660 Maple syrup ..............................: 9,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. February Weather Summary Many parts of the country experienced opposite weather regimes during the first and second halves of the month. For example, the West turned cool and wet in mid-February, following an extended period of mild, dry weather. Variable weather conditions also affected the Plains, where two severe cold outbreaks were followed by record-breaking warmth. Of particular concern was winter wheat on the central and southern High Plains, which - in addition to the February temperature swings - has been adversely affected by drought. From November 28 to February 27, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition increased from 26 to 56 percent in Texas, 8 to 42 percent in Oklahoma, and 25 to 40 percent in Kansas. In contrast, snow continued to accumulate across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, increasing the likelihood of spring flooding. Flooding was a more immediate concern in the central and eastern Corn Belt, where melting snow and late-February downpours pushed many creeks and rivers out of their banks. Elsewhere, parts of the Mid-South and Southeast experienced some February drought relief, but drought continued to expand and intensify in southern Florida and the western and central Gulf Coast States. February Agricultural Summary Despite an early-month storm system that delivered subfreezing temperatures, snow, and ice to areas as far south as Florida, above average temperatures and mostly sunny skies blanketed much of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic Coast during February. Elsewhere, below average temperatures prevailed throughout much of the country from the Great Plains westward. Specifically, monthly recordings dipped to 10 degrees or more below normal in the northern Rocky Mountains. While much of the United States was relatively dry during the month, areas of the Rocky Mountains, Great Plains, Corn Belt, and Ohio Valley received precipitation totaling 200 percent or more above normal. Row crop producers in many areas of the country were afforded ample time throughout much of the month to ready farm equipment and fields for spring planting. In California, garbanzo beans and safflower were being planted as the month began, while corn and sorghum fields in several regions of Texas were planted toward month's end. Sugarcane producers in Florida and Texas spent much of the month wrapping up the harvest of their 2010 crop. A lack of available soil moisture left producers in portions of Kansas and Texas, the two largest winter wheat-producing States, concerned about crop condition and development as spring approached. Similarly, a strong winter storm delivered subfreezing temperatures and ice to areas of the Blacklands, Cross Timbers, Plains, and Trans-Pecos regions of Texas, negatively impacting many oat and wheat fields. Elsewhere, many winter wheat fields in Washington were reported in good condition despite concerns of potential mold and stripe rust outbreaks. As subfreezing temperatures plunged southward in early February, vegetable producers in southern Texas ran irrigation systems to help prevent crop damage while continuing to harvest their cabbage and citrus crops. In Florida, citrus producers harvested grapefruit, as well as early and midseason oranges throughout the month. Orchard maintenance activities were ongoing and included irrigation, hedging and topping of trees, and lime applications. Bee colonies were moved into almond orchards in California as seedbed preparations were made for spring vegetable crops. As the month ended, producers in California made bloom sprays to almond orchards, while budding and early bloom was evident on many peach and plum trees. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2010 is estimated at 28.1 million tons, of which 26.4 million tons will be utilized for sugar and 1.72 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up fractionally from the previous forecast but down 8 percent from 2009. Producers expect to harvest 883,200 acres for sugar and seed for the 2010 crop year, up 1,000 acres from February and 9,300 acres from the previous year. Expected yield is forecast at 31.8 tons per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3.0 tons from 2009. Production in Florida is estimated at 13.0 million tons, up marginally from February but down 7 percent from last year. Hard freezes in late December and January negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the Everglades region of Florida, leaving portions of some seed cane fields unsalvageable, reducing yields in others, and ultimately leading to a shorter harvest period this year. Warmer temperatures following the rapid harvest of freeze-damaged cane led to some fermentation in cane stocks. As a result, sugar and seed yield in Florida is estimated at 32.9 tons per acre, unchanged from February but down 3.1 tons from 2009. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. Grapefruit: The 2010-2011 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.20 million tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but down 2 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 19.6 million boxes (833,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes (238,000 tons), down 7 percent from the 2009-2010 season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 2 percent below last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the February 1 forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), up 11 percent from the February 1 forecast and up 22 percent from last season's final utilization. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 605,000 tons, unchanged from the February 1 forecast but up 2 percent from the previous season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.40 million boxes (209,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 1 percent from the previous season. Arizona and California tangerine and mandarin production forecasts are carried forward from the February 1 forecast. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, temperatures were predominantly in the 70s during the month. Weather stations reported lows in the 30s to the 50s and highs in the 80 degree range. Drought conditions worsened during February, with light rainfall having little effect on improving soil moisture. Citrus growers reported harvest of Murcott tangerines continued, while harvesting of the Sunburst variety neared completion. The harvest of Navel oranges was winding down, while that of Valencia oranges began. Grapefruit and early and midseason oranges continued to be picked on schedule. Nearly all of the processing plants are open. Early and midseason oranges and grapefruit made up the majority of fruit going to the plants. Heavy irrigation and harvesting dominated the grove activities during the month. California citrus: The navel orange, mandarin, lemon, pummelo, and grapefruit harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley, but wet conditions slowed the pace and increased fruit decay. The navel orange growers accelerated harvest in order to limit fruit losses due to rind breakdown. Lemons and grapefruit were also picked in the desert region, with lemons being picked in the coastal regions as well. Freezing temperatures were recorded during February in the desert region. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Budding in peach and plum trees continued as blooming started in early variety trees. Pruning, spraying, and planting in orchards and vineyards were conducted as conditions allowed. Netting was placed on some stone fruit trees to protect new blossoms from birds. Good bud growth was reported in early season blueberry fields with bees being used for pollination. The almond bloom was underway with most farmers getting ready for bloom spray. No significant damage to the trees was reported at this time as a result of cool temperatures late in the month. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast. Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 2.1 percent. However, if you exclude the 4 abnormal production seasons (2 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 2.1 percent, or 2.0 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.6 percent, or 3.4 percent when excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 191,000 tons (192,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 503,000 tons (18,000 tons to 503,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 9 times and above 11 times (below 8 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the March 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats................................................ (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed........................ (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................................... (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops....................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Sarah Speedy - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ........... (202) 720-9085 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits................ (202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... 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