Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 8, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 1 Percent from March The United States all orange forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 8.91 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and 8 percent above the revised 2009-2010 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 142 million boxes (6.39 million tons), is unchanged from the March 1 forecast but 6 percent above last season's revised final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 70.0 million boxes (3.15 million tons), unchanged from March but 2 percent higher than last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 72.0 million boxes (3.24 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from the revised 2009-2010 crop. In Florida, fruit size is projected to be below average while droppage is projected to be above average. The California all orange forecast is 61.0 million boxes (2.44 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California navel orange forecast is 48.0 million boxes (1.92 million tons), up 3 percent from the March 1 forecast and up 13 percent from last season. The California Valencia orange forecast is 13.0 million boxes (520,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 13 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Harvest of navel oranges continued during March, while Valencia orange harvest got underway. The Texas orange forecast, at 1.77 million boxes (75,000 tons), is up 8 percent from the previous forecast and up 8 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2010-2011 season is 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and up 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.56 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.52 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season's yield of 1.51 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.65 gallons per box, 1 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 8, 2011. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Karis T. Gutter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted April 1, 2011............................................................................................... 4 Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2010 and Forecasted April 1, 2011................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)............................. 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units)................................... 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)............................... 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units)..................................... 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units).................................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units).................................... 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation............................................................................. 12 Departure from Normal Temperature........................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary....................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary.................................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................... 14 Statistical Methodology..................................................................................... 16 Information Contacts........................................................................................ 17 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2009-2010 and Forecasted April 1, 2011 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 : 2009-2010 : 2010-2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and navel 2/ : California .................: 42,500 48,000 1,594 1,920 Florida ....................: 68,600 70,000 3,087 3,150 Texas ......................: 1,360 1,480 58 63 : United States ..............: 112,460 119,480 4,739 5,133 : Valencia : California .................: 15,000 13,000 563 520 Florida ....................: 65,100 72,000 2,930 3,240 Texas ......................: 275 285 12 12 : United States ..............: 80,375 85,285 3,505 3,772 : All : California .................: 57,500 61,000 2,157 2,440 Florida ....................: 133,700 142,000 6,017 6,390 Texas ......................: 1,635 1,765 70 75 : United States ..............: 192,835 204,765 8,244 8,905 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 6,000 5,600 255 238 : Colored : Florida ....................: 14,300 14,000 608 595 : All : California .................: 4,500 3,500 151 140 Florida ....................: 20,300 19,600 863 833 Texas ......................: 5,600 5,900 224 236 : United States ..............: 30,400 29,000 1,238 1,209 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 350 300 13 12 California 3/ ................: 9,900 9,600 371 384 Florida ......................: 4,450 4,500 211 214 : United States ................: 14,700 14,400 595 610 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 2,200 2,500 84 100 California ...................: 21,000 21,000 798 840 : United States ................: 23,200 23,500 882 940 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 900 1,150 41 52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80 (67 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-85, Texas-80; lemons-80 (76 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), tangelos-90; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80 (75 prior to the 2010-2011 crop year), Florida-95. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2010 and Forecasted April 1, 2011 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal group : Area planted : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production and State :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 acres ---------- ---- cwt ---- --- 1,000 cwt --- : Spring : Arizona ............: 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 280 300 1,036 1,140 California .........: 27.1 28.5 27.0 28.5 405 380 10,935 10,830 Florida ............: 33.2 35.4 31.8 33.7 250 256 7,950 8,618 Hastings area ....: 21.5 22.4 20.3 21.2 250 265 5,075 5,618 Other areas ......: 11.7 13.0 11.5 12.5 250 240 2,875 3,000 North Carolina .....: 16.0 17.0 15.0 16.0 195 220 2,925 3,520 Texas ..............: 8.8 7.9 8.4 7.5 235 230 1,974 1,725 : United States ......: 88.8 92.6 85.9 89.5 289 289 24,820 25,833 : Summer : Colorado ...........: 4.0 3.8 370 1,406 Delaware ...........: 1.6 1.6 275 440 Illinois ...........: 5.8 5.6 350 1,960 Kansas .............: 4.5 4.4 335 1,474 Maryland ...........: 2.1 2.1 340 714 Missouri ...........: 7.3 7.2 300 2,160 New Jersey .........: 1.9 1.7 230 391 Texas ..............: 6.0 5.5 390 2,145 Virginia ...........: 5.8 5.6 170 952 : United States ......: 39.0 37.5 310 11,642 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,872 2,952 2,465 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 88,192 92,178 81,446 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,567 Hay, all .......................: (NA) (NA) 59,862 58,973 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,956 All other ....................: (NA) 39,906 Oats ...........................: 3,138 2,839 1,263 Proso millet ...................: 390 363 Rice ...........................: 3,636 3,018 3,615 Rye ............................: 1,211 265 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,404 5,645 4,808 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 273 Wheat, all .....................: 53,603 58,021 47,637 Winter .......................: 37,335 41,229 31,749 Durum ........................: 2,570 2,365 2,529 Other spring .................: 13,698 14,427 13,359 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,448.8 1,611.8 1,431.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 421 420 418 Mustard seed ...................: 50.5 48.1 Peanuts ........................: 1,288.0 1,237.0 1,255.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.3 2.2 Safflower ......................: 175.0 167.7 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,404 76,609 76,616 Sunflower ......................: 1,951.5 1,805.0 1,873.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 10,973.2 12,565.5 10,706.7 Upland .......................: 10,769.0 12,313.0 10,505.0 American Pima ................: 204.2 252.5 201.7 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,171.4 1,187.1 1,155.7 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 883.2 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 337.5 336.5 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 31.2 20.0 17.9 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,911.4 1,303.5 1,842.7 Dry edible peas ................: 756.0 586.0 711.4 Lentils ........................: 658.0 710.0 634.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.3 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 71.3 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,021.5 1,004.7 Spring .......................: 88.8 92.6 85.9 89.5 Summer .......................: 39.0 37.5 Fall .........................: 893.7 881.3 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 18.6 Sweet potatoes .................: 119.8 126.7 116.9 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 ------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 73.1 180,268 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 152.8 12,446,865 Corn for silage ....................tons: 19.3 107,314 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 145,556 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 67,903 All other ........................tons: 1.95 77,653 Oats ............................bushels: 64.3 81,190 Proso millet ....................bushels: 31.8 11,535 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 6,725 243,104 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 7,431 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 71.8 345,395 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 12.5 3,420 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.4 2,208,391 Winter ........................bushels: 46.8 1,485,236 Durum .........................bushels: 42.4 107,180 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.1 615,975 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,713 2,450,947 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 6,191.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 21.7 9,056 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 870 41,861 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,311 4,155,600 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,891 4,160 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,320 221,335 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 43.5 3,329,341 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,460 2,735,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 821 18,314.5 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 814 17,817.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,184 497.5 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 27.6 31,945 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 31.8 28,111 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,133 719,786 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,666 237 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,726 31,801 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,999 14,221 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,365 8,657 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 580 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,250 7,900 Hops .............................pounds: 2,093 65,492.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,363 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 395 397,189 Spring ............................cwt: 289 289 24,820 25,833 Summer ............................cwt: 310 11,642 Fall ..............................cwt: 409 360,727 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 125 2,318 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 204 23,845 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,900 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,162,270 1,194,640 997,560 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:35,690,420 37,303,510 32,960,380 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,252,910 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 24,225,550 23,865,780 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 8,075,990 All other ....................: (NA) 16,149,560 Oats ...........................: 1,269,920 1,148,910 511,120 Proso millet ...................: 157,830 146,900 Rice ...........................: 1,471,450 1,221,350 1,462,950 Rye ............................: 490,080 107,240 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,186,940 2,284,480 1,945,750 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 110,480 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:21,692,600 23,480,520 19,278,220 Winter .......................:15,109,100 16,684,960 12,848,500 Durum ........................: 1,040,050 957,090 1,023,460 Other spring .................: 5,543,440 5,838,460 5,406,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 586,310 652,280 579,110 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 170,370 169,970 169,160 Mustard seed ...................: 20,440 19,470 Peanuts ........................: 521,240 500,600 507,890 Rapeseed .......................: 930 890 Safflower ......................: 70,820 67,870 Soybeans for beans .............:31,324,620 31,002,900 31,005,730 Sunflower ......................: 789,750 730,470 758,310 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,440,740 5,085,130 4,332,890 Upland .......................: 4,358,110 4,982,950 4,251,270 American Pima ................: 82,640 102,180 81,630 Sugarbeets .....................: 474,050 480,410 467,700 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 357,420 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 136,560 136,180 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 12,630 8,090 7,240 Dry edible beans ...............: 773,520 527,510 745,720 Dry edible peas ................: 305,950 237,150 287,900 Lentils ........................: 266,290 287,330 256,570 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,660 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 28,850 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 413,390 406,590 Spring .......................: 35,940 37,470 34,760 36,220 Summer .......................: 15,780 15,180 Fall .........................: 361,670 356,650 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,530 Sweet potatoes .................: 48,480 51,270 47,310 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 190 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.93 3,924,870 Corn for grain .........................: 9.59 316,164,930 Corn for silage ........................: 43.21 97,353,620 Hay, all 1/ ............................: 5.45 132,046,180 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.63 61,600,570 All other ............................: 4.36 70,445,620 Oats ...................................: 2.31 1,178,470 Proso millet ...........................: 1.78 261,610 Rice ...................................: 7.54 11,027,010 Rye ....................................: 1.76 188,760 Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.51 8,773,440 Sorghum for silage .....................: 28.08 3,102,570 Wheat, all 1/ ..........................: 3.12 60,102,550 Winter ...............................: 3.15 40,421,500 Durum ................................: 2.85 2,916,960 Other spring .........................: 3.10 16,764,090 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 1.92 1,111,730 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 5,616,380 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.36 230,030 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.98 18,990 Peanuts ................................: 3.71 1,884,950 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.12 1,890 Safflower ..............................: 1.48 100,400 Soybeans for beans .....................: 2.92 90,609,810 Sunflower ..............................: 1.64 1,240,830 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ .........................: 0.92 3,987,510 Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,879,190 American Pima ........................: 1.33 108,320 Sugarbeets .............................: 61.96 28,980,020 Sugarcane ..............................: 71.35 25,501,870 Tobacco ................................: 2.39 326,490 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...................: 1.48 10,750 Dry edible beans .......................: 1.93 1,442,470 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.24 645,050 Lentils ................................: 1.53 392,670 Wrinkled seed peas .....................: (NA) 26,310 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ........................: 1.41 3,580 Hops ...................................: 2.35 29,710 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 2,890 Potatoes, all 1/ .......................: 44.31 18,016,190 Spring ...............................: 32.39 32.35 1,125,820 1,171,770 Summer ...............................: 34.80 528,070 Fall .................................: 45.88 16,362,300 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 1,050 Sweet potatoes .........................: 22.86 1,081,590 Taro (Hawaii) ..........................: (NA) 1,770 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................tons: 1,238 1,209 Lemons .................................tons: 882 940 Oranges ................................tons: 8,244 8,905 Tangelos (Florida) .....................tons: 41 52 Tangerines and mandarins ...............tons: 595 610 : Noncitrus : Apples ...............................pounds: 9,286.6 Apricots ...............................tons: 65.5 Bananas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 20,900 Grapes .................................tons: 6,856.8 Olives (California) ....................tons: 190.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .....................pounds: 27,500 Peaches ................................tons: 1,151.3 Pears ..................................tons: 807.6 Prunes, dried (California) .............tons: 125.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .tons: 12.3 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ........pounds: 1,650,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........tons: 27 Pecans, in-shell .....................pounds: 259,660 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........tons: 510 Maple syrup .........................gallons: 1,955 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2010 and 2011 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2011 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2010-2011 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ...............................: 1,123,090 1,096,790 Lemons ...................................: 800,140 852,750 Oranges ..................................: 7,478,830 8,078,480 Tangelos (Florida) .......................: 37,190 47,170 Tangerines and mandarins .................: 539,770 553,380 : Noncitrus : Apples ...................................: 4,212,330 Apricots .................................: 59,400 Bananas (Hawaii) .........................: 9,480 Grapes ...................................: 6,220,360 Olives (California) ......................: 172,370 Papayas (Hawaii) .........................: 12,470 Peaches ..................................: 1,044,440 Pears ....................................: 732,640 Prunes, dried (California) ...............: 113,400 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ...: 11,160 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ............: 748,430 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .............: 24,490 Pecans, in-shell .........................: 117,780 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ...........: 462,660 Maple syrup ..............................: 9,770 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. March Weather Summary During March, warm, dry weather across the southern Plains and the Southwest adversely affected already drought-stressed pastures and winter grains. From November 28 to April 3, the portion of the winter wheat crop rated in very poor to poor condition climbed from 26 to 61 percent in Texas; 8 to 53 percent in Oklahoma; and 25 to 34 percent in Kansas. In contrast, cold weather dominated the Nation's Northern Tier, particularly on the northern Plains. Monthly temperatures ranged from more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal on the northern Plains to more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in parts of the Southwest. By month's end, winter wheat in the northern Plains had begun to break dormancy, with 70 percent of Montana's wheat crop rated in good to excellent condition on April 3. As the month progressed, flooding generally shifted from the Ohio Valley (and parts of the Northeast) into the upper Midwest. In the latter region, the mid- to late-month combination of precipitation and melting snow led to significant flooding, especially in eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, March rainfall provided drought relief in parts of the Southeast. Heavy precipitation fell from the central Gulf Coast into the Appalachians, as well as the Northeast. Late-month rain eased drought in parts of Florida, with downpours affecting central portions of the peninsula. Elsewhere, a series of exceptional, late-season storms hammered northern and central California and the Northwest, while drought continued to expand and intensify across Arizona and New Mexico. The average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack peaked at 48 inches (165 percent of normal) in late March, up from 22 inches in mid-February. March Agricultural Summary The arrival of March brought seasonable temperatures to much of the Nation. In contrast, portions of the northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountains experienced temperatures more than 10 degrees below average. While precipitation was above average along both coasts and in isolated locations across the Northern Tier, many areas in the center of the country accumulated less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall totals during the month. As the month began and when weather conditions allowed, row crop producers in many regions of the United States were completing tillage operations, irrigating fields, and performing routine equipment maintenance in preparation for spring planting. In portions of the South, some corn, cotton, and sorghum acreage was already in the ground. By mid-month, a prolonged lack of rainfall coupled with inadequate soil moisture availability delayed planting activities across southern Texas and left emerged corn in the Coastal Bend in need of additional precipitation to further normal crop development. Elsewhere, rice producers in California were busy working on drainage ditches to help eliminate excess water from their fields following steady rainfall during the first half of March. By month's end, corn, cotton, rice, and sorghum planting was underway in several States. While small grain fields in California were growing well with adequate to abundant available soil moisture at the start of the month, persistently dry conditions on the central and southern Great Plains left many winter wheat fields in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas in very poor or poor condition at month's end. In Kansas, the largest winter wheat-producing State, jointing was evident in a small number fields by March 13. Producers in the High Plains of Texas treated some fields for brown wheat mites, Russian wheat aphids, and winter grain mites as portions of the crop in the Low Plains were negatively impacted by soil erosion and strong winds. In Oklahoma, some small grain fields were appraised for insurance purposes while producers were considering grazing others. Elsewhere, as the month ended, dairy operations in Georgia were harvesting some small grain fields for silage. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The 2010-2011 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.21 million tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast but down 2 percent from the 2009-2010 crop. Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 19.6 million boxes (833,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season. The Florida all white grapefruit forecast is 5.60 million boxes (238,000 tons), down 7 percent from the 2009-2010 season. The colored grapefruit forecast, at 14.0 million boxes (595,000 tons), is 2 percent below last season. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 610,000 tons, up 1 percent from the March 1 forecast and up 3 percent from the previous season. Florida's tangerine crop is forecast at 4.50 million boxes (214,000 tons), up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 1 percent from the previous season. Lemons: The forecast for the 2010-2011 United States lemon crop is 940,000 tons, unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 7 percent from the 2009-2010 final utilization. California production is forecast at 840,000 tons (21.0 million boxes), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last season's revised utilized production. Harvest ended in the Desert Region while picking continued in the San Joaquin Valley. Lemon production in Arizona is forecast at 100,000 tons (2.50 million boxes), unchanged from the January 1 forecast but up 19 percent from last season. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.15 million boxes (52,000 tons), up 5 percent from the March 1 forecast and up 28 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, temperatures were predominantly in the 80s during the month. Weather stations reported lows from the 30s to the 50s, with highs reaching the 90 degree range. Drought conditions worsened during March, with light rainfall having little effect on improving soil moisture. The citrus bloom was heavy and widespread with reports of a good fruit set. Citrus growers reported harvest of early and midseason oranges neared completion. Grapefruit continued to be picked on schedule. Nearly all of the processing plants are open. Valencia oranges and grapefruit made up the majority of fruit going to the plants. Heavy irrigation and harvesting dominated the grove activities during the month. Arizona citrus: Lemon and tangerine harvest finished in March. Texas citrus: Dry conditions persisted throughout the growing region in March. Harvest of navel and Valencia oranges and grapefruit continued with excellent fruit quality being reported. California citrus: The navel orange, mandarin, and lemon harvests continued in the San Joaquin Valley, along with early varieties of Valencia oranges. Lemons and grapefruit continued to be picked in the Desert Region, while lemons were picked in the Coastal Region as well. Harvest of navel oranges finished early to limit fruit losses due to rind breakdown. Nurseries in Tulare County shipped citrus plants across the State. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Stone fruit and cherry bloom was underway with most farmers performing bloom spray applications. Early grape varieties showed bud break and strawberry plants showed good growth in the San Joaquin Valley. Pre-emergent herbicides were applied in grape vineyards along with ongoing pruning. Fertilizers and herbicides application continued in orchards across the State. Irrigation water was applied to almond orchards across the Central Valley to limit the effects of freezing temperatures on almond buds. Blooming continued in the San Joaquin Valley while it was finished in the Sacramento Valley. Sprays were applied in almond orchards along with pruning as weather allowed. Pruning and spraying in pistachio and walnut orchards continued as well when field conditions allowed. Planting of new nut trees was ongoing. Spring potatoes: Production for 2011 is forecast at 25.8 million cwt, up 4 percent from 2010. Area for harvest is forecast at 89,500 acres, up 4 percent from last year. The average yield forecast, at 289 cwt per acre, is unchanged from 2010. Florida's production is forecast at 8.62 million cwt, up 8 percent from last year. Unfavorable weather conditions caused some freeze damage in the other areas growing region. However, Hastings area growers expect a good crop. California's spring potato production is forecast at 10.8 million cwt, down 1 percent from the previous year due to cool, wet growing conditions. North Carolina growers are expected to produce 3.52 million cwt of spring potatoes, up 20 percent from 2010. As of March 27, 2011, crop condition was rated as mostly good by the growers. Production in Arizona is forecast at 1.14 million, up 10 percent from 2010, while Texas growers expect production to total 1.73 million cwt, down 13 percent from last year. Summer potatoes: The final estimate of 2010 summer potato production is 11.6 million cwt, up 1 percent from the preliminary estimate in the January Crop Production 2010 Summary. Harvested area covered 37,500 acres, up 1 percent from the preliminary 2010 estimate. The revised acreage yield of 310 cwt per acre is down 1 cwt form the 2010 preliminary estimate. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for nearly 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which, when combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 1.7 percent regardless of including or excluding the 4 abnormal production seasons (2 freeze seasons and 2 hurricane seasons). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.9 percent, or 3.0 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 146,000 tons (154,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 7,000 tons to 368,000 tons (7,000 tons to 368,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times (below 5 times and above 11 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Hay, Oats................................................ (202) 690-3234 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed........................ (202) 720-9526 Nick Schauer - Wheat, Rye............................................... (202) 720-8068 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops....................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Tropical Fruits................ (202) 720-5412 Tierra Mobley - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ......... (202) 720-4285 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mints, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Kim Ritchie - Hops...................................................... (360) 709-2400 Sarah Speedy - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ........... (202) 720-9085 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. 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