Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 2 Percent from December The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.98 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 147 million boxes (6.62 million tons), is down 2 percent from the December forecast but up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), down 3 percent from the December forecast but up 4 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 74.0 million boxes (3.33 million tons), is down 1 percent from the December forecast but up 6 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Sizes for both Valencia and early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are expected to be larger than average, however size measurements for both were down from the December forecast. Little rainfall was received in Florida's citrus growing region during December. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.56 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 3 percent from the December forecast, and down 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.44 gallons per box, down 5 percent from last season's yield of 1.52 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.70 gallons per box, 2 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on January 12, 2012. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Karis T. Gutter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted January 1, 2012...................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2010 and 2011.................. 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)...................... 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)............................ 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)........................ 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units).............................. 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)........................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)............................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary............................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary........................................................................ 13 Crop Comments........................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.............................................................................. 15 Information Contacts................................................................................. 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted January 1, 2012 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California .................: 48,000 44,000 1,920 1,760 Florida ....................: 70,300 73,000 3,164 3,285 Texas ......................: 1,700 1,292 72 55 : United States ..............: 120,000 118,292 5,156 5,100 : Valencia : California .................: 13,500 13,500 540 540 Florida ....................: 70,000 74,000 3,150 3,330 Texas ......................: 249 334 11 14 : United States ..............: 83,749 87,834 3,701 3,884 : All : California .................: 61,500 57,500 2,460 2,300 Florida ....................: 140,300 147,000 6,314 6,615 Texas ......................: 1,949 1,626 83 69 : United States ..............: 203,749 206,126 8,857 8,984 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,850 5,200 249 221 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,900 14,000 591 595 : All : California .................: 4,100 3,300 164 132 Florida ....................: 19,750 19,200 840 816 Texas ......................: 6,300 4,977 252 199 : United States ..............: 30,150 27,477 1,256 1,147 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 300 200 12 8 California 3/ ................: 9,900 10,300 396 412 Florida ......................: 4,650 4,400 221 209 : United States ................: 14,850 14,900 629 629 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 2,500 700 100 28 California ...................: 21,000 19,500 840 780 : United States ................: 23,500 20,200 940 808 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,100 52 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2010 and 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 192 187 1,200 1,385 Arizona .......: 60 40 365 250 Arkansas ......: 340 380 2,050 1,550 California ....: 432 160 1,850 1,640 Colorado ......: 650 450 2,000 1,800 Connecticut ...: 14 12 45 55 Delaware ......: 4 3 19 13 Florida .......: 40 45 477 400 Georgia .......: 210 188 1,360 800 Idaho .........: 775 280 2,300 2,000 : Illinois ......: 310 320 1,310 980 Indiana .......: 198 225 1,200 1,300 Iowa ..........: 420 610 3,050 2,750 Kansas ........: 1,200 1,000 4,500 3,900 Kentucky ......: 1,006 799 4,392 3,840 Louisiana .....: 60 110 700 540 Maine .........: 34 23 120 133 Maryland ......: 60 65 310 360 Massachusetts .: 9 10 63 71 Michigan ......: 330 420 2,000 1,500 : Minnesota .....: 630 810 3,700 3,800 Mississippi ...: 90 137 1,175 1,486 Missouri ......: 1,250 1,325 6,500 5,450 Montana .......: 720 1,300 5,500 4,900 Nebraska ......: 1,000 1,335 4,700 4,275 Nevada ........: 310 46 819 830 New Hampshire .: 7 6 40 49 New Jersey ....: 46 17 110 81 New Mexico ....: 125 100 520 575 New York ......: 400 273 1,744 1,800 : North Carolina : 296 253 1,157 1,175 North Dakota ..: 1,310 1,250 5,370 6,100 Ohio ..........: 350 390 1,790 1,778 Oklahoma ......: 650 1,200 4,550 2,800 Oregon ........: 420 280 2,100 2,200 Pennsylvania ..: 680 340 1,950 1,950 Rhode Island ..: 2 1 8 8 South Carolina : 130 110 490 400 South Dakota ..: 2,190 1,850 7,850 8,400 Tennessee .....: 678 746 2,985 3,101 : Texas .........: 1,100 2,500 9,500 3,800 Utah ..........: 245 144 1,050 1,420 Vermont .......: 50 48 180 215 Virginia ......: 350 402 1,660 2,500 Washington ....: 280 350 1,607 1,460 West Virginia .: 125 190 790 953 Wisconsin .....: 753 1,122 3,278 2,653 Wyoming .......: 400 365 1,700 1,300 : United States .: 20,931 22,217 102,134 90,726 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,559 2,239 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 91,921 83,981 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,928 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 55,633 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,213 All other ....................: (NA) 36,420 Oats ...........................: 2,496 939 Proso millet ...................: 370 338 Rice ...........................: 2,689 2,618 Rye ............................: 1,266 242 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,481 3,929 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 224 Wheat, all .....................: 54,409 45,705 Winter .......................: 40,646 41,947 32,314 Durum ........................: 1,369 1,312 Other spring .................: 12,394 12,079 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,071.5 1,043.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 178 173 Mustard seed ...................: 23.2 21.8 Peanuts ........................: 1,140.6 1,097.6 Rapeseed .......................: 1.5 1.3 Safflower ......................: 130.7 127.3 Soybeans for beans .............: 74,976 73,636 Sunflower ......................: 1,543.0 1,457.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 14,732.4 9,747.9 Upland .......................: 14,426.0 9,444.0 American Pima ................: 306.4 303.9 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,232.8 1,213.1 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 873.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 324.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 18.0 12.3 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,205.9 1,155.9 Dry edible peas ................: 362.0 342.8 Lentils ........................: 428.0 411.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 29.8 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 74.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,098.9 1,076.7 Spring .......................: 93.3 91.5 Summer .......................: 48.2 46.0 Fall .........................: 957.4 939.2 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 17.3 Sweet potatoes .................: 134.2 130.3 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 69.6 155,780 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 147.2 12,358,412 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.4 108,926 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.36 131,144 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 65,332 All other ........................tons: 1.81 65,812 Oats ............................bushels: 57.1 53,649 Proso millet ....................bushels: 27.1 9,149 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 7,067 185,009 Rye .............................bushels: 26.1 6,326 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 54.6 214,443 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.3 2,298 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 1,999,347 Winter ........................bushels: 46.2 1,493,677 Durum .........................bushels: 38.5 50,482 Other spring ..................bushels: 37.7 455,188 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,475 1,538,010 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,267.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 16.1 2,791 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 718 15,644 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,313 3,636,320 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,177 2,830 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,333 169,671 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 41.5 3,056,032 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,398 2,038,275 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 772 15,673.7 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 754 14,828.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,336 845.7 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 23.7 28,789 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 32.4 28,279 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,850 601,029 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,463 180 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,716 19,833 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,641 5,625 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,151 4,732 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 509 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,320 8,300 Hops .............................pounds: 2,175 64,781.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,570 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 397 427,406 Spring ............................cwt: 279 25,573 Summer ............................cwt: 282 12,960 Fall ..............................cwt: 414 388,873 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 2,286 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 208 27,041 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 4,100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,035,600 906,100 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:37,199,510 33,986,270 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,399,000 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 22,514,120 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 7,775,310 All other ....................: (NA) 14,738,810 Oats ...........................: 1,010,110 380,000 Proso millet ...................: 149,740 136,790 Rice ...........................: 1,088,210 1,059,480 Rye ............................: 512,340 97,930 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,218,110 1,590,030 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 90,650 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,018,780 18,496,360 Winter .......................:16,449,030 16,975,530 13,077,150 Durum ........................: 554,020 530,950 Other spring .................: 5,015,730 4,888,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 433,630 422,090 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 70,010 Mustard seed ...................: 9,390 8,820 Peanuts ........................: 461,590 444,190 Rapeseed .......................: 610 530 Safflower ......................: 52,890 51,520 Soybeans for beans .............:30,342,040 29,799,750 Sunflower ......................: 624,440 589,960 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,962,050 3,944,880 Upland .......................: 5,838,060 3,821,890 American Pima ................: 124,000 122,990 Sugarbeets .....................: 498,900 490,930 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 353,290 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 131,460 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,280 4,980 Dry edible beans ...............: 488,020 467,780 Dry edible peas ................: 146,500 138,730 Lentils ........................: 173,210 166,330 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,050 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 29,950 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 444,710 435,730 Spring .......................: 37,760 37,030 Summer .......................: 19,510 18,620 Fall .........................: 387,450 380,080 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,000 Sweet potatoes .................: 54,310 52,730 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.74 3,391,710 Corn for grain .................: 9.24 313,918,120 Corn for silage ................: 41.19 98,816,000 Hay, all 1/ ....................: 5.28 118,971,840 Alfalfa ......................: 7.62 59,268,190 All other ....................: 4.05 59,703,640 Oats ...........................: 2.05 778,710 Proso millet ...................: 1.52 207,500 Rice ...........................: 7.92 8,391,870 Rye ............................: 1.64 160,690 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.43 5,447,100 Sorghum for silage .............: 23.00 2,084,710 Wheat, all 1/ ..................: 2.94 54,413,310 Winter .......................: 3.11 40,651,230 Durum ........................: 2.59 1,373,890 Other spring .................: 2.53 12,388,190 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.65 697,630 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 4,778,140 Flaxseed .......................: 1.01 70,890 Mustard seed ...................: 0.80 7,100 Peanuts ........................: 3.71 1,649,410 Rapeseed .......................: 2.44 1,280 Safflower ......................: 1.49 76,960 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.79 83,171,560 Sunflower ......................: 1.57 924,550 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 1/ .................: 0.87 3,412,550 Upland .......................: 0.84 3,228,420 American Pima ................: 1.50 184,130 Sugarbeets .....................: 53.20 26,116,940 Sugarcane ......................: 72.61 25,654,280 Tobacco ........................: 2.07 272,620 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.64 8,160 Dry edible beans ...............: 1.92 899,610 Dry edible peas ................: 1.84 255,150 Lentils ........................: 1.29 214,640 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 23,090 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.48 3,760 Hops ...........................: 2.44 29,380 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 2,980 Potatoes, all 1/ ...............: 44.49 19,386,810 Spring .......................: 31.33 1,159,970 Summer .......................: 31.58 587,860 Fall .........................: 46.41 17,638,980 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.15 1,040 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.26 1,226,560 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :--------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .........................tons: 1,256 1,147 Lemons .............................tons: 940 808 Oranges ............................tons: 8,857 8,984 Tangelos (Florida) .................tons: 52 50 Tangerines and mandarins ...........tons: 629 629 : Noncitrus : Apples .....................1,000 pounds: 9,429.9 Apricots ...........................tons: 59.2 Bananas (Hawaii) .................pounds: Grapes .............................tons: 7,088.4 Olives (California) ................tons: 65.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .................pounds: Peaches ............................tons: 1,129.1 Pears ..............................tons: 888.3 Prunes, dried (California) .........tons: 122.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) t: 13.1 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ....pounds: 1,950,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .......tons: 41 Pecans, in-shell .................pounds: 251,700 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .....tons: 485 Maple syrup .....................gallons: 2,794 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :--------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................: 1,139,420 1,040,540 Lemons .................................: 852,750 733,010 Oranges ................................: 8,034,940 8,150,150 Tangelos (Florida) .....................: 47,170 45,360 Tangerines and mandarins ...............: 570,620 570,620 : Noncitrus : Apples .................................: 4,277,330 Apricots ...............................: 53,680 Bananas (Hawaii) .......................: Grapes .................................: 6,430,520 Olives (California) ....................: 58,970 Papayas (Hawaii) .......................: Peaches ................................: 1,024,340 Pears ..................................: 805,850 Prunes, dried (California) .............: 110,680 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .: 11,840 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ..........: 793,790 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........: 37,190 Pecans, in-shell .......................: 114,170 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........: 439,980 Maple syrup ............................: 13,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. December Weather Summary During December, mostly dry weather prevailed from the Pacific Coast into the north central United States. In California and neighboring areas, extremely dry conditions stunted pasture growth and raised concerns about sub-par spring and summer runoff from meager mountain snow packs. On the northern Plains, mild, dry weather left winter wheat exposed to potential weather extremes. In contrast, widespread precipitation boosted high-elevation snow packs and benefited winter wheat and drought-damaged pastures and rangeland from Arizona to the southern half of the Plains. Wetness also extended into parts of the Midwest, where producers in the eastern Corn Belt continued to wait for fields to freeze before being able to proceed with final corn harvest efforts. Elsewhere, highly variable conditions existed across the Southeast, ranging from wet weather in the Mid-South to dryness in the southern Atlantic region and along the central Gulf Coast. December Agricultural Summary Temperatures from the northern Rocky Mountains to the Southeast and along the Atlantic Coast were well above average during December, giving producers in many areas additional time to complete late-season fieldwork. Most notably, portions of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota recorded temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal. Elsewhere, fruit and vegetable producers across much of California ran freeze protection late in the month as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s in major producing areas. Precipitation was well above normal for much of the Corn Belt, Four Corners region, southern Great Plains, and Ohio Valley during the month. In Ohio, topsoil moisture levels were reported as 86 percent surplus on December 11, leaving producers with corn or soybeans still in the fields waiting until the ground froze to continue harvesting their crops. Late-season row crop harvesting continued in many southern States throughout December, but was mostly complete as the month ended. In Arizona, small grain producers were busy seeding barley and Durum wheat, with nearly half and over one-quarter of the crops in the ground, respectively. Fruit and vegetable producers in the major producing States harvested and shipped a variety of crops throughout the month, with replanting ongoing as conditions allowed. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.15 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from last season's final utilization. White grapefruit size in Florida is projected to be below average with above average droppage. Colored grapefruit size is projected to be below average with above average droppage. Lemons: The forecast for the 2011-2012 United States lemon crop is 808,000 tons, down 3 percent from the October 1 forecast and down 14 percent from the previous season's final utilization. Arizona's lemon crop is down 72 percent from last season due to damage from a major freeze in southern Arizona last winter. Harvest continued in California's desert region as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Fruit size and droppage are higher than average for the tangelo crop. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 629,000 tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but unchanged from the 2010-2011 crop. In Florida, the reduced production forecast is primarily due to Honey tangerine sizes, which are expected to be below average with higher than average droppage. California growers saw favorable weather during harvest. In Arizona, the freeze that significantly affected the State's lemon crop did not have as severe of an impact on the tangerines. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported temperatures ranging from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s. Sparse rainfall brought dry conditions back to the citrus region this month. Harvesting of early oranges (Navels and Hamlins), white and colored grapefruit, Fallglo and Sunburst tangerines, and Nova Tangelos continued. Production practices included lime application and irrigation as needed. California citrus: Growers ran freeze protection several nights as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s. Harvest of Satsuma mandarins as well as Owari and Clementine tangerines continued with growers about 50 percent complete in Tulare County. Navel orange harvest continued with reports of improved internal maturity. Cara Cara orange and lemon harvests continued. Oro Blanco and Melogold grapefruit harvests neared completion. Pummelo harvest was underway. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Asian pear and Fuyu and Hachiya persimmon harvests were completed in December. Pineapple quince, fig, and apple harvests continued. Kiwi and Early Wonderful and Wonderful pomegranate harvests finished. Table and wine grape harvests were also completed. Grapevines are dormant and pruning has begun. Heavy frost finished defoliating trees and vines, making pruning easier. Olive harvest finished in the Southern San Joaquin Valley. The harvest of walnuts was complete. Finished walnut groves were being irrigated, pruned, and sprayed. Almond stockpiles were hulled. The pistachio harvest was over. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on farms December 1, 2011 totaled 90.7 million tons, down 11 percent from a year ago. This is the lowest December 1 stocks on hand for the United States since 1988. Disappearance from May 1, 2011-Decmeber 1, 2011 totaled 62.6 million tons, compared with 64.4 million tons for the same period a year ago. Compared with last year, hay stocks decreased across much of the Nation's midsection. In most cases, these decreases were attributed to an unusually dry year that negatively impacted hay production, as well as pasture and rangeland. Many producers began feeding livestock early to help offset the lack of available feedstuffs. Stocks on hand were the lowest since 1985 in Oklahoma and Texas, two States that were hit hardest by this year's prolonged drought. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent regardless if you exclude the 3 abnormal production years (1 freeze season and 2 hurricane seasons). This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.7 percent regardless of whether abnormal seasons are excluded. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 298,000 tons (301,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 13,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Oats, Rye, Wheat......................................... (202) 720-8068 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Receive NASS Updates" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377- 8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.