Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 9, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from January The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.94 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 146 million boxes (6.57 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), unchanged from the January forecast but up 4 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 73.0 million boxes (3.29 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Sizes for Valencia oranges in Florida are expected to be smaller than average. California and Texas forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the January forecast and up 3 percent from last season's final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.54 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season's yield of 1.52 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.73 gallons per box, 4 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 9, 2012. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Karis T. Gutter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2010 and 2011..... 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted February 1, 2012..................................................................................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)...................... 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)............................ 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)........................ 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units).............................. 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)........................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)............................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature.................................................................... 12 January Weather Summary.............................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary......................................................................... 13 Crop Comments........................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.............................................................................. 15 Information Contacts................................................................................. 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2010 and 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 : 2010 : 2011 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 374.0 379.0 32.7 35.5 12,230 13,455 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 15.5 15.5 77.1 82.0 1,195 1,271 Louisiana 2/ .................: 390.0 385.0 27.8 28.0 10,842 10,780 Texas 2/ .....................: 45.8 47.0 30.5 33.5 1,396 1,575 : United States ................: 825.3 826.5 31.1 32.8 25,663 27,081 : For seed : Florida ......................: 18.0 18.0 41.2 41.5 742 747 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 1.9 1.5 26.3 30.0 50 45 Louisiana 2/ .................: 30.0 25.0 27.8 28.0 834 700 Texas 2/ .....................: 2.3 2.0 31.0 35.5 71 71 : United States ................: 52.2 46.5 32.5 33.6 1,697 1,563 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 392.0 397.0 33.1 35.8 12,972 14,202 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 17.4 17.0 71.6 77.4 1,245 1,316 Louisiana 2/ .................: 420.0 410.0 27.8 28.0 11,676 11,480 Texas 2/ .....................: 48.1 49.0 30.5 33.6 1,467 1,646 : United States ................: 877.5 873.0 31.2 32.8 27,360 28,644 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2011 Summary" released January 2012. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted February 1, 2012 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California 3/ ..............: 48,000 44,000 1,920 1,760 Florida ....................: 70,300 73,000 3,164 3,285 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,700 1,292 72 55 : United States ..............: 120,000 118,292 5,156 5,100 : Valencia : California 3/ ..............: 13,500 13,500 540 540 Florida ....................: 70,000 73,000 3,150 3,285 Texas 3/ ...................: 249 334 11 14 : United States ..............: 83,749 86,834 3,701 3,839 : All : California 3/ ..............: 61,500 57,500 2,460 2,300 Florida ....................: 140,300 146,000 6,314 6,570 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,949 1,626 83 69 : United States ..............: 203,749 205,126 8,857 8,939 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,850 5,200 249 221 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,900 13,500 591 574 : All : California 3/ ..............: 4,100 3,300 164 132 Florida ....................: 19,750 18,700 840 795 Texas 3/ ...................: 6,300 4,977 252 199 : United States ..............: 30,150 26,977 1,256 1,126 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ 4/ ................: 300 200 12 8 California 3/ 4/ .............: 9,900 10,300 396 412 Florida ......................: 4,650 4,300 221 204 : United States ................: 14,850 14,800 629 624 : Lemons 3/ : Arizona ......................: 2,500 700 100 28 California ...................: 21,000 19,500 840 780 : United States ................: 23,500 20,200 940 808 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,100 52 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,559 2,239 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 91,921 83,981 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,928 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 55,633 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,213 All other ....................: (NA) 36,420 Oats ...........................: 2,496 939 Proso millet ...................: 370 338 Rice ...........................: 2,689 2,618 Rye ............................: 1,266 242 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,481 3,929 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 224 Wheat, all .....................: 54,409 45,705 Winter .......................: 40,646 41,947 32,314 Durum ........................: 1,369 1,312 Other spring .................: 12,394 12,079 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,071.5 1,043.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 178 173 Mustard seed ...................: 23.2 21.8 Peanuts ........................: 1,140.6 1,097.6 Rapeseed .......................: 1.5 1.3 Safflower ......................: 130.7 127.3 Soybeans for beans .............: 74,976 73,636 Sunflower ......................: 1,543.0 1,457.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 14,732.4 9,747.9 Upland .......................: 14,426.0 9,444.0 American Pima ................: 306.4 303.9 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,232.8 1,213.1 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 873.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 324.8 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 18.0 12.3 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,205.9 1,155.9 Dry edible peas ................: 362.0 342.8 Lentils ........................: 428.0 411.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 29.8 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 74.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,098.9 1,076.7 Spring .......................: 93.3 91.5 Summer .......................: 48.2 46.0 Fall .........................: 957.4 939.2 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 17.3 Sweet potatoes .................: 134.2 130.3 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 69.6 155,780 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 147.2 12,358,412 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.4 108,926 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.36 131,144 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 65,332 All other ........................tons: 1.81 65,812 Oats ............................bushels: 57.1 53,649 Proso millet ....................bushels: 27.1 9,149 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 7,067 185,009 Rye .............................bushels: 26.1 6,326 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 54.6 214,443 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.3 2,298 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 1,999,347 Winter ........................bushels: 46.2 1,493,677 Durum .........................bushels: 38.5 50,482 Other spring ..................bushels: 37.7 455,188 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,475 1,538,010 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,267.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 16.1 2,791 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 718 15,644 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,313 3,636,320 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,177 2,830 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,333 169,671 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 41.5 3,056,032 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,398 2,038,275 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 772 15,673.7 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 754 14,828.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,336 845.7 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 23.7 28,789 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 32.8 28,644 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,850 601,029 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,463 180 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,716 19,833 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,641 5,625 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,151 4,732 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 509 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,320 8,300 Hops .............................pounds: 2,175 64,781.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,570 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 397 427,406 Spring ............................cwt: 279 25,573 Summer ............................cwt: 282 12,960 Fall ..............................cwt: 414 388,873 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 2,286 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 208 27,041 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 4,100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,035,600 906,100 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:37,199,510 33,986,270 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,399,000 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 22,514,120 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 7,775,310 All other ....................: (NA) 14,738,810 Oats ...........................: 1,010,110 380,000 Proso millet ...................: 149,740 136,790 Rice ...........................: 1,088,210 1,059,480 Rye ............................: 512,340 97,930 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,218,110 1,590,030 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 90,650 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,018,780 18,496,360 Winter .......................:16,449,030 16,975,530 13,077,150 Durum ........................: 554,020 530,950 Other spring .................: 5,015,730 4,888,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 433,630 422,090 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 70,010 Mustard seed ...................: 9,390 8,820 Peanuts ........................: 461,590 444,190 Rapeseed .......................: 610 530 Safflower ......................: 52,890 51,520 Soybeans for beans .............:30,342,040 29,799,750 Sunflower ......................: 624,440 589,960 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,962,050 3,944,880 Upland .......................: 5,838,060 3,821,890 American Pima ................: 124,000 122,990 Sugarbeets .....................: 498,900 490,930 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 353,290 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 131,460 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,280 4,980 Dry edible beans ...............: 488,020 467,780 Dry edible peas ................: 146,500 138,730 Lentils ........................: 173,210 166,330 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,050 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 29,950 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 444,710 435,730 Spring .......................: 37,760 37,030 Summer .......................: 19,510 18,620 Fall .........................: 387,450 380,080 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,000 Sweet potatoes .................: 54,310 52,730 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.74 3,391,710 Corn for grain .................: 9.24 313,918,120 Corn for silage ................: 41.19 98,816,000 Hay, all 1/ ....................: 5.28 118,971,840 Alfalfa ......................: 7.62 59,268,190 All other ....................: 4.05 59,703,640 Oats ...........................: 2.05 778,710 Proso millet ...................: 1.52 207,500 Rice ...........................: 7.92 8,391,870 Rye ............................: 1.64 160,690 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.43 5,447,100 Sorghum for silage .............: 23.00 2,084,710 Wheat, all 1/ ..................: 2.94 54,413,310 Winter .......................: 3.11 40,651,230 Durum ........................: 2.59 1,373,890 Other spring .................: 2.53 12,388,190 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.65 697,630 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 4,778,140 Flaxseed .......................: 1.01 70,890 Mustard seed ...................: 0.80 7,100 Peanuts ........................: 3.71 1,649,410 Rapeseed .......................: 2.44 1,280 Safflower ......................: 1.49 76,960 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.79 83,171,560 Sunflower ......................: 1.57 924,550 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 1/ .................: 0.87 3,412,550 Upland .......................: 0.84 3,228,420 American Pima ................: 1.50 184,130 Sugarbeets .....................: 53.20 26,116,940 Sugarcane ......................: 73.55 25,985,400 Tobacco ........................: 2.07 272,620 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.64 8,160 Dry edible beans ...............: 1.92 899,610 Dry edible peas ................: 1.84 255,150 Lentils ........................: 1.29 214,640 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 23,090 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.48 3,760 Hops ...........................: 2.44 29,380 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 2,980 Potatoes, all 1/ ...............: 44.49 19,386,810 Spring .......................: 31.33 1,159,970 Summer .......................: 31.58 587,860 Fall .........................: 46.41 17,638,980 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.15 1,040 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.26 1,226,560 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :--------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .........................tons: 1,256 1,126 Lemons .............................tons: 940 808 Oranges ............................tons: 8,857 8,939 Tangelos (Florida) .................tons: 52 50 Tangerines and mandarins ...........tons: 629 624 : Noncitrus : Apples .....................1,000 pounds: 9,429.9 Apricots ...........................tons: 59.2 Bananas (Hawaii) .................pounds: Grapes .............................tons: 7,088.4 Olives (California) ................tons: 65.0 Papayas (Hawaii) .................pounds: Peaches ............................tons: 1,129.1 Pears ..............................tons: 888.3 Prunes, dried (California) .........tons: 122.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) t: 13.1 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ....pounds: 1,950,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) .......tons: 41 Pecans, in-shell .................pounds: 251,700 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .....tons: 485 Maple syrup .....................gallons: 2,794 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :--------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit .............................: 1,139,420 1,021,490 Lemons .................................: 852,750 733,010 Oranges ................................: 8,034,940 8,109,320 Tangelos (Florida) .....................: 47,170 45,360 Tangerines and mandarins ...............: 570,620 566,080 : Noncitrus : Apples .................................: 4,277,330 Apricots ...............................: 53,680 Bananas (Hawaii) .......................: Grapes .................................: 6,430,520 Olives (California) ....................: 58,970 Papayas (Hawaii) .......................: Peaches ................................: 1,024,340 Pears ..................................: 805,850 Prunes, dried (California) .............: 110,680 Prunes and plums (excludes California) .: 11,840 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ..........: 793,790 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ...........: 37,190 Pecans, in-shell .......................: 114,170 Walnuts, in-shell (California) .........: 439,980 Maple syrup ............................: 13,970 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. January Weather Summary The "year without a winter" gained momentum in January, with the majority of the continental United States reporting above-normal temperatures. Monthly temperatures averaged more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in parts of the north-central United States, while near- to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Nevertheless, cold weather caused some concerns during January. For example, an early-month freeze damaged some vegetables and other temperature-sensitive crops across Florida's peninsula on January 4-5. Later, a mid-January cold spell resulted in sub-zero readings across the northern Plains. At the time of the initial cold blast, the northern High Plains' winter wheat crop had no protective snow cover. Much of the Plains' wheat belt also experienced drier-than-normal conditions during January, although an early-February snow storm provided much-needed moisture across central portions of the region. On both the northern and southern High Plains, mild, mostly dry, windy weather reduced wheat's winter hardiness. In contrast, periods of heavy rain provided some drought relief across the southeastern Plains, including central and northeastern Texas. Farther northeast, slowly developing drought in the upper Midwest contrasted with unfavorably soggy conditions in parts of the eastern Corn Belt. In some of the wettest areas of the lower Midwest, numerous freeze-thaw cycles - combined with excessive soil moisture - were detrimental to the health of soft red winter wheat. Meanwhile, drought remained a concern across much of the Deep South as the spring planting season approached. In fact, drought intensified during January in the southern Atlantic region, where mostly dry weather and occasional freezes resulted in the deterioration of pasture conditions. Elsewhere, drought also expanded in the West, particularly from California to the Intermountain region. Despite a week of wet weather (from January 18-24), the Sierra Nevada ended the month with prospects for a "normal" season diminishing. The average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at 6 inches on January 31, less than 40 percent of average. Areas to the north, from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, fared better during January, with periods of heavy rain and snow. January Agricultural Summary During January, temperatures were above average across much of the Nation, leading to thawing fields, below average snowpack, and declining soil moisture levels in many locations. Most notably, temperatures in the northern Great Plains were more than 12 degrees above normal, where some winter wheat fields were left unprotected due to a lack of snow cover. Precipitation totals varied widely from one region to another, with portions of Texas accumulating more than 300 percent of normal moisture levels during the month. Elsewhere, the remainder of the Great Plains, as well as the Southwest and Atlantic Coast States were unusually dry. Producers in Florida implemented a variety of freeze protection methods to help limit the impact of several early-month cold spells on unharvested winter vegetables. Minor damage was reported in flowering snap bean and squash fields, as well as sugarcane fields. In Palm Beach County, green beans in all stages of development suffered significant damage, with approximately half of the crop destroyed. Late blight was reported in tomato and potato fields later in the month. Scarce rainfall throughout the citrus-producing region left many trees showing signs of wilt, as producers performed routine cultural practices and harvested oranges and tangerines. Despite improving winter wheat conditions in portions of the Texas High Plains early in the month, high winds depleted soil moisture levels and blowing sand damaged the crop toward month's end. Some early-seeded wheat fields failed due to unfavorable growing conditions. Cotton producers were busy applying pre-planting herbicides; however, the continued dry weather left many producers cautious about increasing acreage using expensive seed. Elsewhere, producers in the Lower Valley harvested citrus, vegetables, and sugarcane throughout January. In portions of the West, dry weather left dryland small grain fields in need of additional moisture to sustain growth. Producers in Arizona wrapped up harvest of their 2011 cotton crop mid-month, while barley and Durum wheat seeding was ongoing until month's end. Generally mild winter conditions allowed producers in many areas time for cultivating, fertilizing, and irrigating fields in preparation for spring planting. Crop Comments Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2011 is estimated at 28.6 million tons, of which 27.1 million tons was utilized for sugar and 1.56 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is up 1 percent from January and up 5 percent from 2010. Sugarcane producers harvested 873,000 acres for sugar and seed in 2011, unchanged from the January forecast. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 32.8 tons per acre, up 0.4 ton from January. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. In Florida, harvest remained active throughout January. Minor freeze damage was reported during the first week of January. Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.13 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 10 percent from last season's final utilization. For both white and colored grapefruit in Florida, size is projected to be below average with above average droppage. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 624,000 tons, down 1 percent from both the previous forecast and the 2010-2011 crop. In Florida, the reduced production forecast is primarily due to Honey tangerine sizes, which are expected to be below average with higher than average droppage. Arizona and California estimates are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.10 million boxes (50,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Fruit size and droppage are higher than average for the tangelo crop. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported temperatures ranging from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s. Sparse rainfall continued to worsen drought conditions throughout the citrus region this month. Harvesting of early oranges (Navels and Hamlins), white and colored grapefruit, Sunburst tangerines, and Nova Tangelos continued. Harvest of Valencia and Honey tangerines began. Production practices included general grove upkeep, fertilizer application, and irrigation as needed. California citrus: Navel orange harvest continued during January, as internal maturity improved. Packing houses reported very little frost damage in harvested fruit. Satsuma mandarin, Owari, and Clementine tangerine harvests continued. Oro Blanco and Melogold grapefruit harvests neared completion. Pummelo harvest began to pick up. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: During January, peach and prune orchards were irrigated, pruned, and planted. Pruning continued in grape and kiwi vineyards. Persimmon and apple harvests were complete with application of pre-emergent and dormant sprays beginning. Walnut harvest finished with groves being irrigated, pruned, and sprayed during the month. Almond pruning was complete and stockpiles continued to be hulled. Harvest of pistachios ended and pruning began. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 75 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.3 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.2 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.3 percent, or 3.2 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.6 percent, or 5.5 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 303,000 tons (296,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Oats, Rye, Wheat......................................... (202) 720-8068 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877-8339 (TDD) or (866) 377- 8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.