Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 10, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.91 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but virtually unchanged from the revised 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 145 million boxes (6.53 million tons), is down 1 percent from the March forecast but up 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 74.0 million boxes (3.33 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but up 5 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 71.0 million boxes (3.20 million tons), is down 3 percent from the March forecast but up 1 percent from the revised 2010-2011 crop. Sizes for Valencia oranges in Florida are expected to be slightly smaller than average and fruit droppage is expected to be well above average. The California all orange forecast is 58.0 million boxes (2.32 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 44.0 million boxes (1.76 million tons), unchanged from the March forecast but down 8 percent from last season. The California Valencia orange forecast is 14.0 million boxes (560,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season's revised final utilization. Harvest of Navel oranges continued during March, while Valencia orange harvest began. The Texas orange forecast, at 1.39 million boxes (60,000 tons), is down 15 percent from the previous forecast and down 29 percent from last season's final utilization. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, down 1 percent from the March forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is 1.56 gallons per box, up 3 percent from last season's yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.72 gallons per box, 4 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on April 10, 2012. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Karis T. Gutter Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted April 1, 2012................................................................................................... 4 Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted April 1, 2012........................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)................................. 6 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)....................................... 7 Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)................................... 8 Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)......................................... 9 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units)...................................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units)........................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation................................................................................. 12 Departure from Normal Temperature............................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary........................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary...................................................................................... 13 Crop Comments................................................................................................... 14 Statistical Methodology......................................................................................... 16 Information Contacts............................................................................................ 17 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted April 1, 2012 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California .................: 48,000 44,000 1,920 1,760 Florida ....................: 70,300 74,000 3,164 3,330 Texas ......................: 1,700 1,165 72 50 : United States ..............: 120,000 119,165 5,156 5,140 : Valencia : California .................: 14,500 14,000 580 560 Florida ....................: 70,200 71,000 3,159 3,195 Texas ......................: 249 224 11 10 : United States ..............: 84,949 85,224 3,750 3,765 : All : California .................: 62,500 58,000 2,500 2,320 Florida ....................: 140,500 145,000 6,323 6,525 Texas ......................: 1,949 1,389 83 60 : United States ..............: 204,949 204,389 8,906 8,905 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,850 5,300 249 225 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,900 13,500 591 574 : All : California .................: 4,300 3,400 172 136 Florida ....................: 19,750 18,800 840 799 Texas ......................: 6,300 5,292 252 212 : United States ..............: 30,350 27,492 1,264 1,147 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 300 200 12 8 California 3/ ................: 9,900 9,800 396 392 Florida ......................: 4,650 4,300 221 204 : United States ................: 14,850 14,300 629 604 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 2,500 800 100 32 California ...................: 20,500 19,500 820 780 : United States ................: 23,000 20,300 920 812 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,150 52 52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potato Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted April 1, 2012 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Seasonal group : Area planted : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production and State :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 acres ---------- ---- cwt ---- --- 1,000 cwt --- : Spring : Arizona ............: 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.5 280 300 1,064 1,050 California .........: 28.1 30.0 28.0 30.0 390 385 10,920 11,550 Florida ............: 36.4 36.9 35.6 36.3 256 260 9,112 9,438 Hastings area ....: 23.4 23.6 23.1 23.3 270 260 6,237 6,058 Other areas ......: 13.0 13.3 12.5 13.0 230 260 2,875 3,380 North Carolina .....: 17.0 18.0 16.5 17.0 170 190 2,805 3,230 Texas ..............: 8.0 9.8 7.6 8.8 220 220 1,672 1,936 : United States ......: 93.3 98.2 91.5 95.6 279 285 25,573 27,204 : Summer : Colorado ...........: 4.5 4.4 370 1,628 Delaware ...........: 1.6 1.6 250 400 Illinois ...........: 7.0 6.8 330 2,244 Kansas .............: 5.5 5.3 280 1,484 Maryland ...........: 2.2 2.2 300 660 Missouri ...........: 8.3 7.1 170 1,207 New Jersey .........: 2.0 1.8 190 342 Texas ..............: 11.1 10.9 350 3,815 Virginia ...........: 6.0 5.9 200 1,180 : United States ......: 48.2 46.0 282 12,960 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,559 3,333 2,239 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 91,921 95,864 83,981 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,928 Hay, all .......................: (NA) (NA) 55,633 57,348 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 19,213 All other ....................: (NA) 36,420 Oats ...........................: 2,496 2,863 939 Proso millet ...................: 370 338 Rice ...........................: 2,689 2,561 2,618 Rye ............................: 1,266 242 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,481 5,950 3,929 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 224 Wheat, all .....................: 54,409 55,908 45,705 Winter .......................: 40,646 41,709 32,314 Durum ........................: 1,369 2,223 1,312 Other spring .................: 12,394 11,976 12,079 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,071.5 1,557.2 1,043.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 178 289 173 Mustard seed ...................: 23.2 21.8 Peanuts ........................: 1,140.6 1,422.0 1,097.6 Rapeseed .......................: 1.5 1.3 Safflower ......................: 130.7 127.3 Soybeans for beans .............: 74,976 73,902 73,636 Sunflower ......................: 1,543.0 1,808.0 1,457.8 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 14,732.4 13,155.0 9,747.9 Upland .......................: 14,426.0 12,885.0 9,444.0 American Pima ................: 306.4 270.0 303.9 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,232.8 1,241.3 1,213.1 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 874.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 324.8 318.0 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 18.0 21.0 12.3 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,205.9 1,669.9 1,155.9 Dry edible peas ................: 362.0 619.0 342.8 Lentils ........................: 428.0 518.0 411.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) 29.8 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 74.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,098.9 1,076.7 Spring .......................: 93.3 98.2 91.5 95.6 Summer .......................: 48.2 46.0 Fall .........................: 957.4 939.2 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 17.3 Sweet potatoes .................: 134.2 133.4 130.3 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 ------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 69.6 155,780 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 147.2 12,358,412 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.4 108,926 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.36 131,144 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 65,332 All other ........................tons: 1.81 65,812 Oats ............................bushels: 57.1 53,649 Proso millet ....................bushels: 27.1 9,149 Rice 1/ .............................cwt: 7,067 185,009 Rye .............................bushels: 26.1 6,326 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 54.6 214,443 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.3 2,298 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 1,999,347 Winter ........................bushels: 46.2 1,493,677 Durum .........................bushels: 38.5 50,482 Other spring ..................bushels: 37.7 455,188 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,475 1,538,010 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,267.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 16.1 2,791 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 718 15,644 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,313 3,636,320 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,177 2,830 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,333 169,671 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 41.5 3,056,032 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,398 2,038,275 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 1/ ....................bales: 772 15,673.7 Upland 1/ .......................bales: 754 14,828.0 American Pima 1/ ................bales: 1,336 845.7 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 23.7 28,789 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 33.5 29,307 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,850 601,029 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 1/ .............cwt: 1,463 180 Dry edible beans 1/ .................cwt: 1,716 19,833 Dry edible peas 1/ ..................cwt: 1,641 5,625 Lentils 1/ ..........................cwt: 1,151 4,732 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 509 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,320 8,300 Hops .............................pounds: 2,175 64,781.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,570 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 397 427,406 Spring ............................cwt: 279 285 25,573 27,204 Summer ............................cwt: 282 12,960 Fall ..............................cwt: 414 388,873 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 2,286 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 208 27,041 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 4,100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,035,600 1,348,830 906,100 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:37,199,510 38,795,200 33,986,270 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,399,000 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 22,514,120 23,208,160 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 7,775,310 All other ....................: (NA) 14,738,810 Oats ...........................: 1,010,110 1,158,630 380,000 Proso millet ...................: 149,740 136,790 Rice ...........................: 1,088,210 1,036,410 1,059,480 Rye ............................: 512,340 97,930 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,218,110 2,407,910 1,590,030 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 90,650 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,018,780 22,625,410 18,496,360 Winter .......................:16,449,030 16,879,220 13,077,150 Durum ........................: 554,020 899,630 530,950 Other spring .................: 5,015,730 4,846,570 4,888,250 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 433,630 630,180 422,090 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 116,960 70,010 Mustard seed ...................: 9,390 8,820 Peanuts ........................: 461,590 575,470 444,190 Rapeseed .......................: 610 530 Safflower ......................: 52,890 51,520 Soybeans for beans .............:30,342,040 29,907,400 29,799,750 Sunflower ......................: 624,440 731,680 589,960 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,962,050 5,323,700 3,944,880 Upland .......................: 5,838,060 5,214,430 3,821,890 American Pima ................: 124,000 109,270 122,990 Sugarbeets .....................: 498,900 502,340 490,930 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 353,700 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 131,460 128,670 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,280 8,500 4,980 Dry edible beans ...............: 488,020 675,790 467,780 Dry edible peas ................: 146,500 250,500 138,730 Lentils ........................: 173,210 209,630 166,330 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,050 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 29,950 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 444,710 435,730 Spring .......................: 37,760 39,740 37,030 38,690 Summer .......................: 19,510 18,620 Fall .........................: 387,450 380,080 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,000 Sweet potatoes .................: 54,310 53,990 52,730 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Crop Yield and Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.74 3,391,710 Corn for grain .................: 9.24 313,918,120 Corn for silage ................: 41.19 98,816,000 Hay, all 1/ ....................: 5.28 118,971,840 Alfalfa ......................: 7.62 59,268,190 All other ....................: 4.05 59,703,640 Oats ...........................: 2.05 778,710 Proso millet ...................: 1.52 207,500 Rice ...........................: 7.92 8,391,870 Rye ............................: 1.64 160,690 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.43 5,447,100 Sorghum for silage .............: 23.00 2,084,710 Wheat, all 1/ ..................: 2.94 54,413,310 Winter .......................: 3.11 40,651,230 Durum ........................: 2.59 1,373,890 Other spring .................: 2.53 12,388,190 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.65 697,630 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 4,778,140 Flaxseed .......................: 1.01 70,890 Mustard seed ...................: 0.80 7,100 Peanuts ........................: 3.71 1,649,410 Rapeseed .......................: 2.44 1,280 Safflower ......................: 1.49 76,960 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.79 83,171,560 Sunflower ......................: 1.57 924,550 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 1/ .................: 0.87 3,412,550 Upland .......................: 0.84 3,228,420 American Pima ................: 1.50 184,130 Sugarbeets .....................: 53.20 26,116,940 Sugarcane ......................: 75.17 26,586,860 Tobacco ........................: 2.07 272,620 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.64 8,160 Dry edible beans ...............: 1.92 899,610 Dry edible peas ................: 1.84 255,150 Lentils ........................: 1.29 214,640 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 23,090 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.48 3,760 Hops ...........................: 2.44 29,380 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 2,980 Potatoes, all 1/ ...............: 44.49 19,386,810 Spring .......................: 31.33 31.89 1,159,970 1,233,950 Summer .......................: 31.58 587,860 Fall .........................: 46.41 17,638,980 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.15 1,040 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.26 1,226,560 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Production may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ............................tons: 1,264 1,147 Lemons ................................tons: 920 812 Oranges ...............................tons: 8,906 8,905 Tangelos (Florida) ....................tons: 52 52 Tangerines and mandarins ..............tons: 629 604 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................... 1,000 pounds: 9,429.9 Apricots ..............................tons: 66.7 Bananas (Hawaii) ....................pounds: Grapes ................................tons: 7,231.3 Olives (California) ...................tons: 71.2 Papayas (Hawaii) ....................pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 1,062.5 Pears .................................tons: 940.7 Prunes, dried (California) ............tons: 130.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons: 12.9 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .......pounds: 1,950,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 39 Pecans, in-shell ....................pounds: 271,400 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 461 Maple syrup ........................gallons: 2,794 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2011 and 2012 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :--------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 1,146,680 1,040,540 Lemons ....................................: 834,610 736,630 Oranges ...................................: 8,079,390 8,078,480 Tangelos (Florida) ........................: 47,170 47,170 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 570,620 547,940 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................................: 4,277,330 Apricots ..................................: 60,460 Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................: Grapes ....................................: 6,560,130 Olives (California) .......................: 64,590 Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 963,920 Pears .....................................: 853,410 Prunes, dried (California) ................: 117,930 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ....: 11,700 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 884,510 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 35,380 Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,100 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 418,210 Maple syrup ...............................: 13,970 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. March Weather Summary The contiguous United States experienced its warmest March, breaking a record set more than a century ago - in 1910. High temperatures were especially dominant east of the Rockies, where every State experienced top-ten warmth for March. In fact, record-setting March warmth affected 25 States from the Plains to the East Coast, including all of the Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 15 degrees Fahrenheit above normal at numerous Midwestern locations, while below-normal readings were mostly confined to the Pacific Coast States. Although the Nation as a whole noted its wettest March since 1998, little or no precipitation fell in a broad area stretching from the Southwest to eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Unusually dry weather also prevailed in the Northeast and across Florida's peninsula. In the latter region, producers utilized irrigation to limit drought stress on blooming citrus and other crops. In contrast, March storminess approximately doubled the water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack, slightly improving California's water-supply prospects. The middle third of the West, from California to Colorado, had a temporary buffer from developing drought in the form of abundant reservoir supplies. Farther north, areas from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies had both abundant high-elevation snow packs and near- to above-average reservoir levels. East of the Rockies, winter wheat and fruit crops developed several weeks ahead of the normal place, leaving many commodities vulnerable to spring freezes. By March 26-27, the first of several cool snaps arrived in the lower Great Lakes region and the Northeastern States, forcing producers to monitor fruit crops for signs of freeze injury. Meanwhile, unusual warmth persisted through month's end from the Plains into the Southeast. Elsewhere, March wetness continued to chip away at long-term drought across the south-central United States, while showers provided some beneficial moisture in the Southeast. However, drought-related concerns persisted in several areas, including the southern High Plains and the lower Southeast. March Agricultural Summary March delivered warmer than normal temperatures to areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Coast, while near-normal recordings prevailed in the Great Basin and along the Pacific Coast. Most notably, average temperatures pushed the mercury to more than 12 degrees above normal throughout the Great Lakes region, as well as much of the Corn Belt and northern Great Plains, promoting an earlier than normal start to spring fieldwork. Storm systems brought above average precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Texas, and much of the Delta during the month. Conversely, moisture accumulation was significantly below normal in the Southwest and Rocky Mountains. Row crop producers in many States were working their fields as March began, cultivating, applying herbicides and fertilizer, and pre-irrigating before planting this year's crops. In portions of the South, corn, cotton, and sorghum were planted early in the month. Rice producers in California were draining fields mid-month, while growers in Texas and parts of the Delta were seeding their fields. Sugarcane growers in Florida and Texas remained busy throughout the month wrapping up the harvest of the 2011 crop. By April 1, corn planting was active in half of the 18 major estimating States, with 3 percent of the Nation's crop in the ground, slightly ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. However, despite the opportunity to plant early, producers in some locations remained hesitant out of concern of a spring freeze. Warmer than normal temperatures coupled with adequate soil moisture throughout the month provided favorable growing conditions for developing small grain crops in many areas. Winter wheat fields in portions of the southern United States were jointing and heading ahead of the normal pace. Conversely, winter wheat in the High Plains and Trans-Pecos regions of Texas struggled developmentally due to continued dry weather and high winds. Late-month storm systems brought beneficial rain to portions of the central and southern Great Plains, boosting soil moisture levels and improving crop conditions in several major growing regions. However, isolated areas received more than 5 inches of rainfall which led to lowland flooding and increased prevalence of powdery mildew and rust in some fields. Vegetable growers spent the month harvesting their remaining winter crops, while readying fields and planting spring crops. Watermelons were planted in northern Florida mid-month. Above average temperatures prompted early blooming and budding in a variety of tree fruit, nut, and grape crops, leaving growers concerned about a possible spring freeze. By month's end, pea-sized fruit were evident on Valencia trees in Florida. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.15 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 9 percent from last season's revised final utilization. The route survey conducted April 2-3 in Florida showed 97 percent of the white grapefruit rows and 92 percent of the colored grapefruit rows were harvested. California growers have reported favorable growing conditions this year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 604,000 tons, down 3 percent from the previous forecast and down 4 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. In Florida, the row count survey showed that 98 percent of Honey tangerines were harvested. Arizona citrus groves are still recovering from last year's freeze. Growers in California's San Joaquin Valley continued to harvest mandarins during March. Lemons: The forecast for the 2011-2012 United States lemon crop is 812,000 tons, up slightly from the January 1 forecast but down 12 percent from the previous season's revised final utilization. Arizona's lemon crop is up 14 percent from the January 1 forecast but down 68 percent from last season due to damage from a major freeze in February 2011. Harvest continued in California's southern coastal region as well as the San Joaquin Valley. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.15 million boxes (52,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. Florida's row count survey showed that nearly all of the rows were harvested. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported temperatures ranging from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s. Drought conditions persisted throughout the citrus region despite receiving generally light rainfall during March. Harvest of early oranges (Navels and Hamlins), Honey tangerines, and tangelos was nearly complete. Harvest was underway for grapefruit and Valencia oranges. Widespread citrus bloom was heavy with all varieties showing varying stages of bloom. Grove work included irrigation, young tree care, and limited hedging and topping. Arizona citrus: Groves are still recovering after a devastating freeze last year. The lemon crop was hit the hardest with tangerines also feeling the effects of the cold weather. The weather this spring has been more favorable as the trees begin to bloom. Texas citrus: Weather conditions have improved in the citrus growing region from last years' extremely dry conditions. Some areas reported freezing temperatures in early February. California citrus: Harvest of Navel oranges, tangerines, tangelos, and lemons continued. Harvested fruit was packed for export. Harvest of late variety Navel oranges and Valencia oranges began. Cara Cara orange harvest came to an end. Seedless tangerine groves were netted in preparation for the coming bloom. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: During March, stone fruit and cherry bloom was underway with most growers applying bloom sprays to control fungus. Bees were moved out of almond orchards and into fruit orchards. Pruning of grape and kiwifruit vineyards finished while spraying, irrigating, fertilizing, and repair work continued. Kiwifruit continued to be exported. Pomegranate orchards were pruned. Blueberries were blooming. Strawberry growers prepared their fields for spring production. Apple bloom was underway with trees leafing out. Olive groves were pruned. Almond bloom was complete, with trees leafing out while nuts began to form. Some areas in the Central Valley experienced freezing temperatures during March. Walnuts were beginning to leaf out with early varieties in bloom. Pistachios were breaking bud. Walnuts, almonds, and pistachios continued to be exported. Spring potatoes: Production for 2012 is forecast at 27.2 million cwt, up 6 percent from 2011. Planted acreage is forecast at 98,200 acres, a 5 percent increase from 2011. Area for harvest is forecast at 95,600 acres, up 4 percent from the previous year. The average yield forecast, at 285 cwt per acre, is up 6 cwt from the previous year. In California, planting was underway and growers were reporting expectations of an average crop year. In North Carolina and Texas growers reported good crop conditions, although Texas growers indicated high insect pressure. Summer potatoes: Production in 2011 totaled 13.0 million cwt, unchanged from the previous estimate but fractionally below the previous year's production. Harvested area covered 46,000 acres, unchanged from the previous estimate but 14 percent more than in 2010. Average yield, at 282 cwt per acre, was 39 cwt below the previous season. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for about 73 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which, when combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 1.6 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production seasons (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 1.6 percent, or 1.7 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.7 percent, or 2.9 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the April 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 135,000 tons (145,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 1,000 tons to 368,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 6 times and above 11 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Oats, Rye, Wheat......................................... (202) 720-8068 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. Printed reports may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) by calling toll-free (800) 999-6779, or (703) 605-6220 if calling from outside the United States or Canada. Accepted methods of payment are Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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