Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released July 11, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter Wheat Production Down 1 Percent from June Orange Production Up Slightly from June Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the June 1 forecast but up 12 percent from 2011. Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.7 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and 1.5 bushels more than last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 35.0 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 29, 2012 but up 8 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter, at 1.01 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from a month ago. Soft Red Winter production is up slightly from last month and now totals 429 million bushels. White Winter production totals 232 million bushels, up slightly from last month. Of this total, 14.0 million bushels are Hard White and 218 million bushels are Soft White. Durum wheat production is forecast at 82.0 million bushels, up 62 percent from 2011. The United States yield is forecast at 38.6 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 2.12 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released June 29, 2012 but up 62 percent from last year. Other spring wheat production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 4 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 11.7 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released June 29, 2012 but down 3 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 40.4 bushels per acre, 2.7 bushels above 2011. Of the total production, 435 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, up 10 percent from last year. The United States all orange forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 8.97 million tons, up slightly from the June 1 forecast and 1 percent above the 2010-2011 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 147 million boxes (6.59 million tons), is up slightly from the June 1 forecast and up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 74.2 million boxes (3.34 million tons), unchanged from the June 1 forecast but up 6 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 72.3 million boxes (3.25 million tons), is up slightly from the June 1 forecast and up 3 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Harvesting of Valencia oranges in Florida was complete. Drought conditions were all but eliminated during June due to significant rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2011-2012 season is 1.63 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the June forecast but up 3 percent from last season's final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is final at 1.53 gallons per box, up 1 percent from last season's yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.75 gallons per box, 5 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.66 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on July 11, 2012. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Joseph W. Glauber Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Oat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.......... 5 Barley Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012....... 5 Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.................................................................................................... 6 Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.................................................................................................... 7 Other Spring Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.................................................................................................... 7 Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012..................................... 7 Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.................................................................................................... 8 Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts Production by Crop - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.................................................................................................... 8 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012.. 9 Potato Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2011 and 2012................................................................................................... 10 Fall Potato Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potato - Selected States and Total: 2011 and 2012............. 11 Fall Potato Area Planted for Certified Seed - Selected States and Total: 2011 and 2012.......................... 11 Dry Edible Pea Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012............................. 12 Lentil Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012..................................... 12 Austrian Winter Pea Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012........................ 12 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2011 and 2012......... 14 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2011 and 2012........... 16 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2011 and 2012..................................... 18 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2011 and 2012....................................... 19 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab - United States: 2008-2012................. 20 Winter Wheat Heads per Square Foot - Selected States: 2008-2012................................................. 21 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map............................................................................. 22 Departure from Normal Temperature Map........................................................................... 22 June Weather Summary............................................................................................ 23 June Agricultural Summary....................................................................................... 23 Crop Comments................................................................................................... 25 Statistical Methodology......................................................................................... 29 Information Contacts............................................................................................ 31 Oat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres ---- bushels ---- 1,000 bushels : California .......: 15 30 100.0 95.0 1,500 2,850 Idaho ............: 15 15 70.0 65.0 1,050 975 Illinois .........: 20 20 68.0 63.0 1,360 1,260 Iowa .............: 50 60 65.0 58.0 3,250 3,480 Kansas ...........: 25 30 38.0 41.0 950 1,230 Michigan .........: 30 35 64.0 64.0 1,920 2,240 Minnesota ........: 110 130 54.0 64.0 5,940 8,320 Montana ..........: 20 20 50.0 55.0 1,000 1,100 Nebraska .........: 20 25 65.0 48.0 1,300 1,200 New York .........: 34 40 50.0 60.0 1,700 2,400 : North Dakota .....: 85 110 52.0 58.0 4,420 6,380 Ohio .............: 38 46 54.0 57.0 2,052 2,622 Oregon ...........: 12 16 100.0 103.0 1,200 1,648 Pennsylvania .....: 60 70 46.0 53.0 2,760 3,710 South Dakota .....: 70 70 59.0 65.0 4,130 4,550 Texas ............: 60 80 35.0 50.0 2,100 4,000 Wisconsin ........: 115 120 62.0 59.0 7,130 7,080 : Other States 1/ ..: 160 174 61.8 58.8 9,887 10,231 : United States ....: 939 1,091 57.1 59.8 53,649 65,276 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Other States include Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." Barley Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :----------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ---- bushels --- 1,000 bushels : Arizona ........: 64 43 125.0 120.0 8,000 5,160 California .....: 75 65 63.0 55.0 4,725 3,575 Colorado .......: 63 55 126.0 125.0 7,938 6,875 Idaho ..........: 500 590 93.0 87.0 46,500 51,330 Maryland .......: 36 46 80.0 75.0 2,880 3,450 Minnesota ......: 60 100 51.0 59.0 3,060 5,900 Montana ........: 620 800 50.0 49.0 31,000 39,200 North Dakota ...: 350 1,060 47.0 61.0 16,450 64,660 Oregon .........: 32 40 75.0 63.0 2,400 2,520 Pennsylvania ...: 55 58 65.0 72.0 3,575 4,176 : Utah ...........: 22 28 83.0 80.0 1,826 2,240 Virginia .......: 70 45 88.0 83.0 6,160 3,735 Washington .....: 115 150 74.0 75.0 8,510 11,250 Wyoming ........: 63 60 97.0 92.0 6,111 5,520 : Other States 1/ : 114 128 58.3 55.5 6,645 7,099 : United States ..: 2,239 3,268 69.6 66.3 155,780 216,690 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Delaware, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Individual State estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2012 : : : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 :-------------------: 2011 : 2012 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ------- bushels ------- --- 1,000 bushels --- : Arkansas .........: 520 460 58.0 56.0 55.0 30,160 25,300 California .......: 420 330 85.0 85.0 85.0 35,700 28,050 Colorado .........: 2,000 2,250 39.0 39.0 37.0 78,000 83,250 Georgia ..........: 200 200 55.0 47.0 44.0 11,000 8,800 Idaho ............: 770 740 82.0 82.0 82.0 63,140 60,680 Illinois .........: 765 640 61.0 61.0 64.0 46,665 40,960 Indiana ..........: 400 330 62.0 60.0 65.0 24,800 21,450 Kansas ...........: 7,900 9,000 35.0 43.0 44.0 276,500 396,000 Kentucky .........: 440 470 70.0 62.0 62.0 30,800 29,140 Maryland .........: 190 210 66.0 63.0 63.0 12,540 13,230 : Michigan .........: 680 540 75.0 72.0 72.0 51,000 38,880 Mississippi ......: 335 430 64.0 56.0 56.0 21,440 24,080 Missouri .........: 680 690 50.0 55.0 56.0 34,000 38,640 Montana ..........: 2,190 2,140 41.0 40.0 38.0 89,790 81,320 Nebraska .........: 1,450 1,320 45.0 40.0 42.0 65,250 55,440 New York .........: 93 80 56.0 64.0 61.0 5,208 4,880 North Carolina ...: 610 770 68.0 60.0 58.0 41,480 44,660 North Dakota .....: 375 700 37.0 49.0 49.0 13,875 34,300 Ohio .............: 850 525 58.0 61.0 67.0 49,300 35,175 Oklahoma .........: 3,200 4,200 22.0 37.0 37.0 70,400 155,400 : Oregon ...........: 825 780 77.0 72.0 72.0 63,525 56,160 Pennsylvania .....: 170 150 51.0 63.0 61.0 8,670 9,150 South Carolina ...: 180 235 60.0 54.0 48.0 10,800 11,280 South Dakota .....: 1,590 1,300 42.0 43.0 43.0 66,780 55,900 Tennessee ........: 310 350 69.0 63.0 66.0 21,390 23,100 Texas ............: 1,900 2,950 26.0 31.0 31.0 49,400 91,450 Virginia .........: 250 270 71.0 65.0 65.0 17,750 17,550 Washington .......: 1,730 1,670 75.0 69.0 69.0 129,750 115,230 Wisconsin ........: 335 250 65.0 70.0 69.0 21,775 17,250 : Other States 1/ ..: 956 1,043 55.2 51.3 51.4 52,789 53,641 : United States ....: 32,314 35,023 46.2 47.3 47.7 1,493,677 1,670,346 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." Durum Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : 2012 : : : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 :-----------------: 2011 : 2012 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ------- bushels ------- 1,000 bushels : Arizona ........: 79 99 101.0 110.0 110.0 7,979 10,890 California .....: 115 130 109.0 110.0 110.0 12,535 14,300 Montana ........: 385 520 28.0 (X) 26.0 10,780 13,520 North Dakota ...: 715 1,350 25.5 (X) 31.0 18,233 41,850 : Other States 1/ : 18 23 53.1 (X) 60.9 955 1,400 : United States ..: 1,312 2,122 38.5 (X) 38.6 50,482 81,960 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (X) Not applicable. 1/ Other States include Idaho and South Dakota. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." Other Spring Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production State :----------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -- 1,000 acres -- --- bushels --- 1,000 bushels : Idaho ..........: 620 460 84.0 70.0 52,080 32,200 Minnesota ......: 1,500 1,350 46.0 50.0 69,000 67,500 Montana ........: 2,400 2,850 31.0 30.0 74,400 85,500 North Dakota ...: 5,500 5,350 30.5 40.0 167,750 214,000 Oregon .........: 157 87 70.0 71.0 10,990 6,177 South Dakota ...: 1,220 1,070 31.0 35.0 37,820 37,450 Washington .....: 615 475 62.0 55.0 38,130 26,125 : Other States 1/ : 67 39 74.9 72.2 5,018 2,817 : United States ..: 12,079 11,681 37.7 40.4 455,188 471,769 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Colorado, Nevada, and Utah. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." Wheat Production by Class - United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 [Wheat class estimates are based on the latest available data including both surveys and administrative data. The previous end-of-year season class percentages are used throughout the forecast season for States that do not have survey or administrative data available] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop : 2011 : 2012 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 bushels : Winter : Hard red ............: 780,089 1,009,656 Soft red ............: 457,535 429,027 Hard white ..........: 12,368 14,047 Soft white ..........: 243,685 217,616 : Spring : Hard red ............: 397,689 435,485 Hard white ..........: 11,878 7,046 Soft white ..........: 45,621 29,238 Durum ...............: 50,482 81,960 : Total ............ : 1,999,347 2,224,075 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tobacco Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Class - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested :Yield per acre : Production Class and type :--------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- acres ----- --- pounds -- -- 1,000 pounds -- : Class 1, Flue-cured (11-14) : Georgia ....................: 11,900 10,500 2,250 2,200 26,775 23,100 North Carolina .............: 160,000 154,000 1,550 2,200 248,000 338,800 South Carolina .............: 15,500 13,500 1,700 1,800 26,350 24,300 Virginia ...................: 19,500 21,000 2,230 2,200 43,485 46,200 : United States ..............: 206,900 199,000 1,666 2,173 344,610 432,400 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Miscellaneous Fruits and Nuts Production by Crop - States and United States: 2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Total production Crop and State :------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : tons : Apricots : California ...............: 62,550 60,000 Utah .....................: 200 280 Washington ...............: 3,900 7,500 : United States ............: 66,650 67,780 : : 1,000 pounds : Almonds, shelled basis 1/ : California ...............: 2,030,000 2,100,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Utilized production. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2010-2011 and Forecasted July 1, 2012 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 : 2010-2011 : 2011-2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California .................: 48,000 44,000 1,920 1,760 Florida ....................: 70,300 74,200 3,164 3,339 Texas ......................: 1,700 1,108 72 47 : United States ..............: 120,000 119,308 5,156 5,146 : Valencia : California .................: 14,500 14,000 580 560 Florida ....................: 70,200 72,300 3,159 3,254 Texas ......................: 249 311 11 13 : United States ..............: 84,949 86,611 3,750 3,827 : All : California .................: 62,500 58,000 2,500 2,320 Florida ....................: 140,500 146,500 6,323 6,593 Texas ......................: 1,949 1,419 83 60 : United States ..............: 204,949 205,919 8,906 8,973 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,850 5,300 249 225 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,900 13,500 591 574 : All : California .................: 4,300 3,400 172 136 Florida ....................: 19,750 18,800 840 799 Texas ......................: 6,300 4,800 252 192 : United States ..............: 30,350 27,000 1,264 1,127 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ ...................: 300 200 12 8 California 3/ ................: 9,900 10,900 396 436 Florida ......................: 4,650 4,300 221 204 : United States ................: 14,850 15,400 629 648 : Lemons : Arizona ......................: 2,500 750 100 30 California ...................: 20,500 20,000 820 800 : United States ................: 23,000 20,750 920 830 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,150 52 52 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Potato Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production by Seasonal Group - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production Seasonal group :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- and State : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------------- 1,000 acres --------------- ----- cwt ----- ---- 1,000 cwt --- : Spring 1/ : Arizona .................: 3.8 3.5 3.8 3.5 280 275 1,064 963 California ..............: 28.1 29.5 28.0 29.5 390 395 10,920 11,653 Florida .................: 36.4 36.9 35.6 36.3 256 260 9,112 9,438 Hastings area .........: 23.4 23.6 23.1 23.3 270 260 6,237 6,058 All other areas .......: 13.0 13.3 12.5 13.0 230 260 2,875 3,380 North Carolina ..........: 17.0 18.0 16.5 17.5 170 200 2,805 3,500 Texas ...................: 8.0 9.8 7.6 9.3 220 235 1,672 2,186 : United States ...........: 93.3 97.7 91.5 96.1 279 289 25,573 27,740 : Summer : Colorado ................: 4.5 5.4 4.4 5.3 370 380 1,628 2,014 Delaware ................: 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 250 290 400 406 Illinois ................: 7.0 (D) 6.8 (D) 330 (D) 2,244 (D) Kansas ..................: 5.5 6.0 5.3 5.8 280 330 1,484 1,914 Maryland ................: 2.2 (D) 2.2 (D) 300 (D) 660 (D) Missouri ................: 8.3 8.5 7.1 8.4 170 310 1,207 2,604 New Jersey ..............: 2.0 2.6 1.8 2.6 190 200 342 520 Texas ...................: 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 350 475 3,815 5,130 Virginia ................: 6.0 5.0 5.9 4.9 200 250 1,180 1,225 : Other States 2/ .........: - 8.5 - 8.3 - 295 - 2,448 : United States ...........: 48.2 48.4 46.0 47.5 282 342 12,960 16,261 : Fall 3/ : California ..............: 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 480 4,128 Colorado ................: 54.0 55.1 53.9 55.0 395 21,291 Idaho ...................: 320.0 345.0 319.0 344.0 398 127,070 10 Southwest counties .: 19.0 20.0 19.0 20.0 530 10,070 All other counties ....: 301.0 325.0 300.0 324.0 390 117,000 Maine ...................: 57.0 59.0 54.0 58.0 265 14,310 Massachusetts ...........: 3.5 3.8 2.7 3.7 275 743 Michigan ................: 45.0 46.0 44.0 45.5 345 15,180 Minnesota ...............: 49.0 51.0 47.0 48.0 355 16,685 Montana .................: 11.7 12.0 11.5 11.7 330 3,795 : Nebraska ................: 20.0 22.5 19.5 22.1 400 7,800 Nevada ..................: (D) 7.3 (D) 7.3 (D) (D) New Mexico ..............: (D) 6.3 (D) 6.2 (D) (D) New York ................: 16.5 17.0 16.2 16.5 250 4,050 North Dakota ............: 84.0 88.0 77.0 84.0 245 18,865 Ohio ....................: 2.0 2.4 1.7 2.2 250 425 Oregon ..................: 40.0 41.0 39.9 41.0 585 23,342 Pennsylvania ............: 9.2 8.9 7.8 8.5 230 1,794 Rhode Island ............: 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 250 150 Washington ..............: 160.0 165.0 160.0 165.0 615 98,400 Wisconsin ...............: 63.0 63.5 62.5 63.0 400 25,000 : Other States 2/ .........: 13.3 - 13.3 - 439 5,845 : United States ...........: 957.4 1,002.9 939.2 990.8 414 388,873 : All : United States ...........: 1,098.9 1,149.0 1,076.7 1,134.4 397 427,406 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. (D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 1/ Estimates for current year carried forward from earlier forecast. 2/ Includes data withheld above. 3/ The forecast of fall potato production will be published in "Crop Production" released November 2012. Fall Potato Percent of Acreage Planted by Type of Potato - Selected States and Total: 2011 and 2012 [Predominant type shown may include small portion of other type(s) constituting less than 1 percent of State's total. Blue types are reported under red types] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Red : White : Yellow : Russet :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : Colorado ....: 1 1 4 6 8 5 87 88 Idaho .......: 3 3 4 4 1 2 92 91 Maine .......: 4 4 38 38 4 3 54 55 Michigan ....: 2 1 85 86 - 1 13 12 Minnesota ...: 18 21 14 9 1 1 67 69 New York ....: 7 6 86 87 5 4 2 3 North Dakota : 25 23 35 34 1 1 39 42 Oregon ......: 3 3 17 12 2 3 78 82 Pennsylvania : 10 1 89 90 1 1 - 8 Washington ..: 3 4 7 7 1 2 89 87 Wisconsin ...: 11 10 37 37 1 1 51 52 : Total .......: 7 6 19 19 2 2 72 73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Represents zero. Fall Potato Area Planted for Certified Seed - Selected States and Total: 2011 and 2012 [Data supplied by State seed certification officials] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 Crop : 2012 Crop :----------------------------------------------------------------------- State : Entered for : : Percent : Entered for : certification : Certified : certified : certification ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --------- acres --------- percent acres : Alaska ......: 53 53 100 55 California ..: 704 704 100 584 Colorado ....: 14,998 13,287 89 15,831 Idaho .......: (NA) 34,766 (X) (NA) Maine .......: 11,134 10,742 96 11,616 Michigan ....: 2,343 2,272 97 2,355 Minnesota ...: 8,279 7,394 89 7,050 Montana .....: 10,187 10,187 100 10,678 Nebraska ....: 5,229 5,211 100 6,162 New York ....: 845 845 100 762 : North Dakota : 17,984 14,890 83 19,607 Oregon ......: 2,557 2,557 100 2,792 Pennsylvania : 278 278 100 325 Washington ..: 2,901 2,887 100 3,000 Wisconsin ...: 8,353 8,353 100 9,099 : Total .......: (X) 114,426 (X) (X) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. Dry Edible Pea Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 [Excludes both wrinkled seed peas and Austrian winter peas] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Idaho ........: 16.0 24.0 15.0 23.0 Montana ......: 190.0 250.0 177.0 235.0 North Dakota .: 85.0 250.0 80.0 240.0 Oregon .......: 5.0 6.0 4.8 5.5 Washington ...: 66.0 70.0 66.0 70.0 : United States : 362.0 600.0 342.8 573.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lentil Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Idaho ........: 28.0 33.0 27.0 32.0 Montana ......: 260.0 200.0 247.0 190.0 North Dakota .: 80.0 180.0 77.0 174.0 Washington ...: 60.0 65.0 60.0 65.0 : United States : 428.0 478.0 411.0 461.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Austrian Winter Pea Area Planted and Harvested - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Idaho ........: 6.0 4.0 5.0 3.5 Montana ......: 10.0 11.0 6.0 5.0 Oregon .......: 2.0 4.0 1.3 3.0 : United States : 18.0 19.0 12.3 11.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This page intentionally left blank. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 2,559 3,678 2,239 3,268 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 91,921 96,405 83,981 88,851 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 5,928 Hay, all .......................: (NA) (NA) 55,633 57,669 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) (NA) 19,213 18,827 All other ....................: (NA) (NA) 36,420 38,842 Oats ...........................: 2,496 2,746 939 1,091 Proso millet ...................: 370 315 338 Rice ...........................: 2,689 2,661 2,618 2,640 Rye ............................: 1,266 1,251 242 275 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 5,481 6,210 3,929 5,238 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 224 Wheat, all .....................: 54,409 56,017 45,705 48,826 Winter .......................: 40,646 41,819 32,314 35,023 Durum ........................: 1,369 2,203 1,312 2,122 Other spring .................: 12,394 11,995 12,079 11,681 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,071.5 1,631.5 1,043.0 1,593.1 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 178 285 173 281 Mustard seed ...................: 23.2 55.5 21.8 53.1 Peanuts ........................: 1,140.6 1,526.0 1,097.6 1,486.0 Rapeseed .......................: 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.5 Safflower ......................: 130.7 147.5 127.3 141.5 Soybeans for beans .............: 74,976 76,080 73,636 75,315 Sunflower ......................: 1,543.0 1,804.5 1,457.8 1,735.4 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 14,735.4 12,635.0 9,460.9 Upland .......................: 14,428.0 12,400.0 9,156.0 American Pima ................: 307.4 235.0 304.9 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,232.7 1,244.1 1,213.1 1,215.9 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) (NA) 872.6 892.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 325.0 323.7 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 18.0 19.0 12.3 11.5 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,205.9 1,632.7 1,155.9 1,573.6 Dry edible peas ................: 362.0 600.0 342.8 573.5 Lentils ........................: 428.0 478.0 411.0 461.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.3 Hops ...........................: (NA) (NA) 29.8 30.8 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 74.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,098.9 1,149.0 1,076.7 1,134.4 Spring .......................: 93.3 97.7 91.5 96.1 Summer .......................: 48.2 48.4 46.0 47.5 Fall .........................: 957.4 1,002.9 939.2 990.8 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 17.3 Sweet potatoes .................: 133.6 131.4 129.7 128.5 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 69.6 66.3 155,780 216,690 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 147.2 12,358,412 Corn for silage ....................tons: 18.4 108,926 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.36 131,144 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.40 65,332 All other ........................tons: 1.81 65,812 Oats ............................bushels: 57.1 59.8 53,649 65,276 Proso millet ....................bushels: 27.1 9,149 Rice 3/ .............................cwt: 7,067 185,009 Rye .............................bushels: 26.1 6,326 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 54.6 214,443 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 10.3 2,298 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 43.7 45.6 1,999,347 2,224,075 Winter ........................bushels: 46.2 47.7 1,493,677 1,670,346 Durum .........................bushels: 38.5 38.6 50,482 81,960 Other spring ..................bushels: 37.7 40.4 455,188 471,769 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,475 1,538,010 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,370.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 16.1 2,791 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 718 15,644 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,313 3,636,320 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,177 2,830 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,333 169,671 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 41.5 3,056,032 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,398 2,038,275 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 3/ ....................bales: 790 15,573.2 Upland 3/ .......................bales: 772 14,722.0 American Pima 3/ ................bales: 1,340 851.2 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 23.8 28,828 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 33.7 29,383 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,841 598,320 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 3/ .............cwt: 1,463 180 Dry edible beans 3/ .................cwt: 1,716 19,833 Dry edible peas 3/ ..................cwt: 1,641 5,625 Lentils 3/ ..........................cwt: 1,151 4,732 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 509 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,320 8,300 Hops .............................pounds: 2,175 64,781.6 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 89 6,570 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 397 427,406 Spring ............................cwt: 279 289 25,573 27,740 Summer ............................cwt: 282 342 12,960 16,261 Fall ..............................cwt: 414 388,873 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 132 2,286 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 208 26,964 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 4,100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NANot available. (X)Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. 3/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,035,600 1,488,450 906,100 1,322,530 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:37,199,510 39,014,140 33,986,270 35,957,110 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,399,000 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 22,514,120 23,338,070 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) (NA) 7,775,310 7,619,100 All other ....................: (NA) (NA) 14,738,810 15,718,970 Oats ...........................: 1,010,110 1,111,280 380,000 441,520 Proso millet ...................: 149,740 127,480 136,790 Rice ...........................: 1,088,210 1,076,880 1,059,480 1,068,380 Rye ............................: 512,340 506,270 97,930 111,290 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,218,110 2,513,120 1,590,030 2,119,770 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 90,650 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,018,780 22,669,520 18,496,360 19,759,390 Winter .......................:16,449,030 16,923,730 13,077,150 14,173,460 Durum ........................: 554,020 891,530 530,950 858,750 Other spring .................: 5,015,730 4,854,260 4,888,250 4,727,180 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 433,630 660,250 422,090 644,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 115,340 70,010 113,720 Mustard seed ...................: 9,390 22,460 8,820 21,490 Peanuts ........................: 461,590 617,560 444,190 601,370 Rapeseed .......................: 610 650 530 610 Safflower ......................: 52,890 59,690 51,520 57,260 Soybeans for beans .............:30,342,040 30,788,820 29,799,750 30,479,230 Sunflower ......................: 624,440 730,260 589,960 702,300 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 5,963,270 5,113,260 3,828,730 Upland .......................: 5,838,870 5,018,160 3,705,340 American Pima ................: 124,400 95,100 123,390 Sugarbeets .....................: 498,860 503,470 490,930 492,060 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) (NA) 353,130 360,980 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 131,540 131,010 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,280 7,690 4,980 4,650 Dry edible beans ...............: 488,020 660,740 467,780 636,820 Dry edible peas ................: 146,500 242,810 138,730 232,090 Lentils ........................: 173,210 193,440 166,330 186,560 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,550 Hops ...........................: (NA) (NA) 12,050 12,470 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 29,950 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 444,710 464,990 435,730 459,080 Spring .......................: 37,760 39,540 37,030 38,890 Summer .......................: 19,510 19,590 18,620 19,220 Fall .........................: 387,450 405,860 380,080 400,970 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,000 Sweet potatoes .................: 54,070 53,180 52,490 52,000 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.74 3.57 3,391,710 4,717,870 Corn for grain .................: 9.24 313,918,120 Corn for silage ................: 41.19 98,816,000 Hay, all 2/ ....................: 5.28 118,971,840 Alfalfa ......................: 7.62 59,268,190 All other ....................: 4.05 59,703,640 Oats ...........................: 2.05 2.15 778,710 947,480 Proso millet ...................: 1.52 207,500 Rice ...........................: 7.92 8,391,870 Rye ............................: 1.64 160,690 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.43 5,447,100 Sorghum for silage .............: 23.00 2,084,710 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 2.94 3.06 54,413,310 60,529,400 Winter .......................: 3.11 3.21 40,651,230 45,459,370 Durum ........................: 2.59 2.60 1,373,890 2,230,590 Other spring .................: 2.53 2.72 12,388,190 12,839,450 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.65 697,630 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 4,871,580 Flaxseed .......................: 1.01 70,890 Mustard seed ...................: 0.80 7,100 Peanuts ........................: 3.71 1,649,410 Rapeseed .......................: 2.44 1,280 Safflower ......................: 1.49 76,960 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.79 83,171,560 Sunflower ......................: 1.57 924,550 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 0.89 3,390,660 Upland .......................: 0.87 3,205,340 American Pima ................: 1.50 185,330 Sugarbeets .....................: 53.27 26,152,320 Sugarcane ......................: 75.48 26,655,810 Tobacco ........................: 2.06 271,390 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.64 8,160 Dry edible beans ...............: 1.92 899,610 Dry edible peas ................: 1.84 255,150 Lentils ........................: 1.29 214,640 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 23,090 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.48 3,760 Hops ...........................: 2.44 29,380 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 2,980 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 44.49 19,386,810 Spring .......................: 31.33 32.35 1,159,970 1,258,270 Summer .......................: 31.58 38.37 587,860 737,590 Fall .........................: 46.41 17,638,980 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.15 1,040 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.30 1,223,070 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NANot available. (X)Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ............................tons: 1,264 1,127 Lemons ................................tons: 920 830 Oranges ...............................tons: 8,906 8,973 Tangelos (Florida) ....................tons: 52 52 Tangerines and mandarins ..............tons: 629 648 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................... 1,000 pounds: 9,420.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 66.7 67.8 Bananas (Hawaii) ....................pounds: 17,400 Grapes ................................tons: 7,377.7 Olives (California) ...................tons: 71.2 Papayas (Hawaii) ....................pounds: 28,600 Peaches ...............................tons: 1,071.8 Pears .................................tons: 954.7 Prunes, dried (California) ............tons: 137.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) tons: 13.1 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .......pounds: 2,030,000 2,100,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 38.5 Pecans, in-shell ....................pounds: 269,700 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 461 Maple syrup ........................gallons: 2,794 1,908 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2011 and 2012 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2012 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2011-2012 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 1,146,680 1,022,400 Lemons ....................................: 834,610 752,960 Oranges ...................................: 8,079,390 8,140,170 Tangelos (Florida) ........................: 47,170 47,170 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 570,620 587,860 : Noncitrus : Apples ....................................: 4,272,840 Apricots ..................................: 60,460 61,490 Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................: 7,890 Grapes ....................................: 6,692,950 Olives (California) .......................: 64,590 Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: 12,970 Peaches ...................................: 972,310 Pears .....................................: 866,110 Prunes, dried (California) ................: 124,280 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ....: 11,880 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 920,790 952,540 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 34,930 Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 122,330 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 418,210 Maple syrup ...............................: 13,970 9,540 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2010-2011 and 2011-2012. Winter Wheat for Grain Objective Yield Data The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting objective yield surveys in 10 winter wheat-producing States during 2012. Randomly selected plots in winter wheat for grain fields are visited monthly from May through harvest to obtain specific counts and measurements. Data in these tables are based on counts from this survey. Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab - United States: 2008-2012 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : June : July : August Year :----------------------------------------------------------- : Mature 1/ : Mature 1/ : Mature 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent : 2008 ..........: 9 59 86 2009 ..........: 5 57 91 2010 ..........: 8 58 87 2011 ..........: 24 60 86 2012 ..........: 57 77 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes winter wheat in the hard dough stage or beyond and are considered mature or almost mature. Winter Wheat Heads per Square Foot - Selected States: 2008-2012 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- State : 2008 : 2009 : 2010 : 2011 : 2012 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : number : Colorado : July ................: 37.8 44.0 47.3 45.3 41.0 August ..............: 38.8 44.1 48.6 45.0 Final ...............: 38.8 43.9 48.6 45.0 : Illinois : July ................: 63.9 58.1 44.5 60.0 56.5 August ..............: 63.2 58.4 44.5 60.1 Final ...............: 63.2 58.4 44.5 60.1 : Kansas : July ................: 44.7 45.5 44.6 42.2 46.5 August ..............: 44.7 45.5 44.6 42.2 Final ...............: 44.7 45.5 44.6 42.2 : Missouri : July ................: 61.5 49.7 39.8 50.7 49.9 August ..............: 53.2 49.7 39.2 48.9 Final ...............: 53.2 49.7 39.2 48.9 : Montana : July ................: 38.6 37.1 44.7 44.3 44.1 August ..............: 39.4 35.8 44.7 46.7 Final ...............: 39.4 36.0 45.0 46.9 : Nebraska : July ................: 44.9 51.5 47.1 54.3 50.7 August ..............: 47.6 50.8 48.1 54.6 Final ...............: 47.6 50.8 48.1 54.6 : Ohio ............. : July ................: 58.4 57.8 62.1 56.1 58.3 August ..............: 61.0 58.2 62.1 56.2 Final ...............: 61.0 58.2 62.1 56.2 : Oklahoma ......... : July ................: 41.8 38.7 36.5 37.7 47.7 August ..............: 41.8 38.7 36.5 37.7 Final ...............: 41.8 38.7 36.5 37.7 : Texas : July ................: 30.6 35.2 35.9 32.7 34.3 August ..............: 31.0 35.2 35.9 32.8 Final ...............: 31.5 35.1 35.9 32.9 : Washington : July ................: 38.4 36.0 40.2 41.3 37.3 August ..............: 36.6 35.6 39.2 41.5 Final ...............: 36.6 35.4 39.2 41.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/Final head counts will be published in the "Small Grains 2012 Summary." June Weather Summary Rapidly expanding drought and a record-setting, late-month heat wave severely stressed pastures and summer crops, especially from the central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-South. Monthly rainfall totaled less than 50 percent of normal in a broad area centered on the lower Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. By month's end, approximately 60 percent of the Nation's corn and soybean acreage was within an area experiencing drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Drought-free areas of the Midwest were restricted to the northern and western Corn Belt. The central Plains experienced the Nation's most persistent June heat, but the northern and southern Plains were also dominated by hot, dry conditions. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal throughout the central High Plains. However, heat and dryness across the Nation's midsection favored a rapid winter wheat harvest pace. Most areas west of the Rockies also received little or no rain, except for unseasonably heavy showers in the Northwest. Several dozen wildfires raged in the Rockies and Intermountain West, although the late-month arrival of monsoon showers aided containment efforts in the Southwest. Elsewhere, heavy rain was mostly restricted to New England and the lower Southeast. In the latter region, Tropical Storm Debby - which made landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast on June 26 - contributed to the overall wet pattern. June Agricultural Summary Above average temperatures and mostly sunny skies dominated the heart of the United States during June, providing producers ample time to complete fieldwork and boosting phenological development of this year's crops. However, the combination of high temperatures and below average rainfall negatively impacted row crop conditions in many areas. Temperatures climbed to more than 6 degrees above normal in portions of the central Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, while rainfall accumulations totaled less than 50 percent of normal in areas of the Corn Belt, Delta, Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Elsewhere, temperatures along the coasts were near to below normal. Rainfall in the Pacific Northwest, as well as Florida, Maine, and portions of the Great Lakes region totaled more than 200 percent of normal. Following one of the quickest planting paces on record, 97 percent of the Nation's corn crop was emerged by June 3, twenty-two percentage points ahead of last year and 14 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Scarce rainfall coupled with record-breaking temperatures created unfavorable growing conditions in many of the major corn-producing regions. Prolonged dryness led to early-month reports of rootless corn syndrome in portions of Missouri, while the need for additional moisture was evident in many Iowa corn fields with wilted plant leaves. Silking was underway mid-month, with 5 percent of the crop reported in the critical reproductive stage by June 17, three percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Despite continually declining soil moisture levels, silking was rapid during the latter half of the month as sunny skies promoted crop development. As July began, one-quarter of this year's corn crop was at or beyond the silking stage, 20 percentage points ahead of last year and 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 48 percent of the corn crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 72 percent on June 3 and 69 percent from the same time last year. This represents the lowest good to excellent rating for this week since 1988 when 23 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition. Nearly three-quarters of this year's sorghum crop was planted by June 3, well ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. In Kansas, planting was over a week ahead of normal as sunny skies provided ample time for fieldwork. Fieldwork continued at a steady pace in most of the major sorghum-producing States, and by June 17, ninety percent of the crop was in the ground, 10 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Heading was underway but limited to Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas by June 17. Toward month's end, extremely dry conditions in South Central Texas resulted in some sorghum fields being plowed under. Elsewhere, triple-digit heat coupled with little to no measurable rainfall led to deterioration of sorghum condition ratings in Kansas. As July began, 17 percent of this year's crop was at or beyond the coloring stage, with activity evident in the lower Delta and Texas. Sorghum fields in southern Texas were reported as growing well, with 19 percent of the State's crop harvested by July 1. Overall, 34 percent of the sorghum crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 50 percent on June 3 and 36 percent from the same time last year. With favorable weather conditions promoting a rapid crop development pace, over half of the Nation's oat crop was at or beyond the heading stage by June 3. In Texas, harvest, at 77 percent complete, was 25 percentage points ahead of normal as sweltering temperatures promoted a quick dry down pace. Crop development gained speed as the month progressed, and by June 17, heading was 20 percentage points or more ahead of normal in all estimating States except Texas where heading was complete and harvest was nearing completion. Harvest was underway but limited to Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Texas by June 24. Nearly a full week of days suitable for fieldwork allowed producers in Nebraska time to harvest 45 percent of their crop during the week ending July 1. As July began, heading was 97 percent complete, 30 percentage points ahead of last year and 18 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Producers had harvested 15 percent of this year's oat crop by July 1, six percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Overall, 65 percent of the oat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 72 percent on June 3 and 59 percent from the same time last year. Ninety-six percent of the Nation's barley crop was emerged by June 3, forty-one percentage points ahead of last year and 15 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Heading was underway across portions of the Northern Tier as above average temperatures boosted crop growth. Hot, dry conditions in during the last week of June in Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota - where over 60 percent of the barley crop is produced - dried out soils and stressed this year's crop, although rapid head development continued throughout the month. By July 1, sixty-one percent of the barley crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 28 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 61 percent of the barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 69 percent on June 3 and 76 percent from the same time last year. With progress complete or nearly complete in areas other than the Northern Tier, heading of the 2012 winter wheat crop had advanced to 88 percent complete by June 3, eleven percentage points ahead of last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was underway in most southern locations as warm, sunny days provided ample time for fieldwork. In Arkansas, harvest neared completion three weeks ahead of normal as hot temperatures throughout the growing season quickly matured the crop. Heading was steady across the Northern Tier throughout the month, and by June 24, heads were present in 98 percent of the Nation's crop. Persistently hot temperatures aided a rapid dry down pace for most of the major winter wheat-producing States allowing harvest to advance quickly during June. By July 1, producers had harvested 69 percent of this year's crop, 20 percentage points ahead of last year and 26 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average, and one of the fastest harvest paces on record. Overall, 54 percent of the winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition as harvest surpassed the halfway point during the week ending June 24, up 2 percentage points from ratings on June 3 and 19 percentage points better than the same time last year. Heading of the spring wheat crop was 3 percent complete by June 3, three percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Warmer than normal temperatures promoted an accelerated crop development pace for most States during the month. By June 24, head development in Minnesota and the Dakotas was 49 percentage point or more ahead of normal. Conversely, unseasonably cool temperatures and wet fields in Washington delayed crop growth. As July began, nearly three-quarters of the spring wheat crop was at or beyond the heading stage. In North Dakota, the largest spring wheat-producing State, 42 percent of the crop was reported in the milk stage with 3 percent turning color, both ahead of normal. Overall, 71 percent of the spring wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 78 percent on June 3 and 70 percent from the same time last year. As June began, emergence of the rice crop was complete or nearly complete in all States except California. As of June 10, heading was underway but limited to the lower Delta and Texas. Warm temperatures promoted a rapid pace for crop development throughout much of June. By June 24, over half of Louisiana's rice fields were at or beyond the heading stage, with progress 29 percentage points ahead of normal. Toward month's end, producers in Louisiana were busy draining fields in preparation for harvest. In Arkansas, heading was 14 percent complete by July 1, twelve percentage points ahead of the average pace. Nationally, 20 percent of the rice crop was at or beyond the heading stage by July 1, eleven percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Overall, 72 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 65 percent on June 3 and 60 percent from the same time last year. Soybean producers were wrapping up planting this year's crop as the month began, with overall progress 20 percentage points or more ahead of normal in 11 of the 18 major estimating States by June 3. Warmer than normal temperatures promoted rapid crop emergence in most States early in the month, and by June 17, emergence had advanced to 95 percent complete, 18 percentage points ahead of last year and 14 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Blooming was underway throughout most of the major soybean-producing region by June 17, but was most advanced in the Delta. Above average temperatures promoted steady phenological development throughout the month, but - when coupled with a severe lack of soil moisture - negatively impacted crop conditions. As July began, over a quarter of the soybean crop was at or beyond the blooming stage, well ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Overall, 45 percent of the soybean crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 65 percent on June 3 and 66 percent from the same time last year. This represents the lowest good to excellent rating for this week since 1988 when 18 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition. Despite much-needed, heavy rainfall in many Mid- to Southern Atlantic Coast States, producers were busy planting this year's peanut crop at a steady pace in early June. By June 10, ninety-six percent of the crop was in the ground, 5 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Georgia producers in most locations were busy applying gypsum to their peanut fields, while rainfall delayed herbicide applications in portions of the State. Over a quarter of the crop was pegging by June 24, well ahead of the 5-year average; however, peanuts in the Carolinas were reported as growing slower than normal. Overall, 68 percent of the peanut crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 61 percent on June 3 and 30 percent from the same time last year. By June 3, sunflower producers had planted 60 percent of this year's crop, 36 percentage points ahead of last year and 19 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. In North Dakota, the largest sunflower-producing State, planting was complete and 91 percent of the crop had emerged by June 17. Despite persistently hot temperatures and unusually dry soils, 68 percent or more of the sunflower crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1 in the Dakotas. Conversely, 36 percent or less of the crop was in good to excellent condition in Colorado and Kansas. By July 1, blooming was evident in Kansas and North Dakota. With relatively dry weather dominating much of the South early in the month, cotton producers had ample time to complete fieldwork. Planting was 87 percent complete by June 3, four percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average, with 11 percent of the crop at or beyond the squaring stage. Strong winds, blowing dust, and hail damaged some recently emerged cotton in the Texas Panhandle during early June. Favorable weather during the week ending June 17 spurred double-digit square development in 9 of the 15 major estimating States. By June 17, twenty-seven percent of the cotton crop was at or beyond the squaring stage, 8 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Boll setting was underway mid-month but limited to Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas. Producers in the High Plains of Texas were busy irrigating fields and spraying insecticides to battle aphids and flea hoppers in late-June. By July 1, squaring had advanced to 49 percent complete, slightly ahead of the 5-year average, while 14 percent of the cotton crop was setting bolls, 2 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. During the 7 days ending July 1, warmer than normal temperatures in the Delta promoted a rapid boll setting pace evidenced by progress of 22 percentage points or more in all three States. Overall, 47 percent of the cotton crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 54 percent on June 3 and 28 percent from the same time last year. Crop Comments Oats: Production is forecast at 65.3 million bushels, up 22 percent from the record low production in 2011. If realized, this will be the second lowest production on record. Based on conditions as of July 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 59.8 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bushels from 2011. Growers expect to harvest 1.09 million acres for grain or seed, unchanged from Acreage report released June 29, 2012 but up 16 percent from the record low last year. Yield increases from last year are expected in the Northern Great Plains, Texas, and the upper Northeast due to more favorable growing conditions. However, yield decreases are expected in several Corn Belt States due to hot, dry weather. Overall, the oat crop has developed ahead of normal pace in most of the nine major producing States, mainly due to an earlier than normal planting season. As of July 1, ninety-seven percent of the oat acreage was headed, 30 percentage points ahead of last year's pace and 18 points ahead of the 5-year average. By July 1, fifteen percent of the oat acreage was harvested, 6 points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Harvest progress was running ahead of the 5-year average in all States except North Dakota and South Dakota, where harvest had yet to begin. On July 1, sixty-five percent of the oat crop was rated as good to excellent, compared with 59 percent last year. Barley: Production for the 2012 barley crop is forecast at 217 million bushels, up 39 percent from 2011. Based on conditions as of July 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 66.3 bushels per acre, down 3.3 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain or seed, at 3.27 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 46 percent from 2011. As April began, barley producers across much of the country were busy seeding this year's crop, with progress advancing ahead of the normal pace in most States. Conversely, cool spring temperatures coupled with excessively wet fields in Washington limited fieldwork. Emergence was underway by April 15. Sunny skies and adequate soil moisture levels promoted one of the quickest seeding paces on record. By May 20, ninety-eight percent of the Nation's barley crop was in the ground, 17 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. With the exception of Washington, emergence in the five major estimating States neared completion toward the end of May. Head development was evident in most States in early-June, and continued to progress rapidly in most locations as warmer than normal temperatures boosted crop growth throughout the month. Overall, 61 percent of the barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 1, compared with 69 percent on June 3 and 76 percent from the same time last year. Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.67 billion bushels, down 1 percent from the June 1 forecast but up 12 percent from 2011. Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 47.7 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and 1.5 bushels more than last year. Expected grain area totals 35.0 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 29, 2012 but up 8 percent from last year. As of July 1, harvest progress was significantly ahead of normal in all Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Montana, where harvest had not yet begun. Harvest was complete or nearing completion in several States. Yield increases from last month in the HRW growing area are expected in Kansas and Nebraska, but down in Colorado and Montana. As of July 1, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was ahead of normal in all major producing States. Yield increases from last year are expected in several Corn Belt States and the Central Great Plains. Yield decreases from last month are expected in the upper Northeast and Southeast. South Carolina is expecting the most significant yield decrease due to tropical storm damage. Yield forecasts in the Pacific Northwest States are unchanged from the previous month's levels. Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 82.0 million bushels, up 62 percent from 2011. The United States yield is forecast at 38.6 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year's yield. Expected area to be harvested for grain totals 2.12 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released June 29, 2012 but up 62 percent from last year. Due to warmer than normal temperatures, crop development is significantly ahead of normal in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest Durum-producing States. As of July 1, crop condition in Montana and North Dakota was rated 87 and 83 percent good to excellent, respectively. Heading progress in these States was 35 and 53 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average, respectively. Yield forecasts are up from last year in all major producing States except Montana, where hot and dry conditions have hindered the crop. If realized, California's yield of 110 bushels per acre will tie a record high. Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 472 million bushels, up 4 percent from last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 11.7 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released June 29, 2012 but down 3 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 40.4 bushels per acre, 2.7 bushels above 2011. Above average temperatures have advanced crop development across the Northern Great Plains. In the six major producing States, 73 percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage as of July 1, sixty-one percentage points ahead of last year and 38 points greater than the 5-year average. Compared with last year, yield increases are expected in Minnesota and the Dakotas, where showers and thunderstorms have provided needed moisture. Growers in Oregon expect a record high yield. A significant yield decrease from last year is expected in Idaho due to freezing temperatures earlier in the season and lack of moisture. Lentils: Planted area is estimated at 478,000 acres, up 12 percent from last season. Harvested area is forecast at 461,000 acres, up 12 percent from last year. In Montana, 94 percent of the crop had emerged by June 3, compared with 46 percent last year. As of July 1, sixty-five percent of the crop was blooming, compared with 18 percent a year ago. Crop condition was rated mostly in the good to excellent range, despite continued hot dry conditions. In North Dakota, planting began in early April, two weeks ahead of the 5-year average. As of May 20, planting was 98 percent complete. As of July 1, eighty-one percent was flowering, with crop condition reported as 78 percent good to excellent. Dry edible peas: Planted area of dry edible peas is estimated at 600,000 acres, up 66 percent from 2011. Area for harvest, at 573,500 acres, is 67 percent above a year ago. In North Dakota, planting began in early April, two weeks ahead of the 5-year average. As of May 20, planting was 98 percent complete and 81 percent was flowering as of July 1. Condition of the crop was rated 78 percent good to excellent. In Montana, 96 percent of the crop emerged as of May 27, compared with 18 percent last year. As of July 1, dry peas were 87 percent blooming compared with 28 percent last year. Crop condition was rated mostly good to excellent. Austrian winter peas: Planted area of Austrian winter peas is estimated at 19,000 acres, up 6 percent from a year ago. Area harvested is expected to total 11,500 acres, down 7 percent from 2011. Tobacco: United States all flue-cured tobacco production is forecast at 432 million pounds, up 25 percent from the 2011 crop. Area harvested, at 199,000 acres, is 4 percent below last year. Yield per acre is forecast at 2,173 pounds, up 507 pounds from a year ago. As of July 1, the North Carolina crop was rated in mostly fair to good condition. Production levels recovered from last year's hurricane damage. Many farmers started to irrigate as weather has been extremely hot in many growing areas. The crop in Virginia was progressing well with the majority rated in fair to good condition. South Carolina production has been affected by unusually cool, wet weather which led to some reports of thin and yellowing plants. Georgia flue-cured acreage was reported mostly in fair to good condition as of July 1. Temperatures for the past month were above normal and rainfall was very spotty. All potatoes: Potato growers across the United States planted an estimated 1.15 million acres of potatoes in all four seasons of the 2012 crop year, up 5 percent from the previous year. Area for harvest, forecast at 1.13 million acres, is up 5 percent from 2011. Summer potatoes: Production of summer potatoes is forecast at 16.3 million cwt, up 25 percent from 2011. Harvested area is estimated at 47,500 acres, 3 percent above last year. Average yield is forecast at 342 cwt per acre, up 60 cwt from 2011. Mid-Atlantic potato acreage benefitted from timely rains and hot weather leading to excellent growth. In Colorado, an early Spring allowed growers to plant ahead of schedule but yields were reportedly variable due to limited water availability. Fall potatoes: Area planted to fall potatoes in 2012 is estimated at 1.00 million acres, up 5 percent from the 2011 crop year. Harvested area forecast at 990,800 acres, is up 6 percent from 2011. In Idaho, acreage is at the highest level since 2007. In Washington, planted acreage is the highest since 2000. In the eastern United States, a warm, dry spring allowed planting to progress ahead of schedule. Maine growers reported optimal growing conditions due to warm weather and timely rainfall. In North Dakota, potato emergence was ahead of average in May and June and topsoil moisture was reported to be adequate to surplus in the major growing areas. Apricots: The 2012 apricot crop is forecast at 67,780 tons, up 2 percent from last year. The California crop represents 89 percent of the total United States production. Harvest in California continued throughout the Central and San Joaquin Valley and is expected to conclude in late July. The quality of the crop was reported as good, though the fruit sizing was slightly smaller than expected. Washington's crop recovered following last year's frost damaged crop. A moderate winter followed by mild spring conditions resulted in an excellent bloom and good pollination. Most of Utah experienced an unusually warm spring which led growers to expect a higher production level than last year. Almonds: The 2012 California almond production (shelled basis) is forecast at a record 2.10 billion pounds, up 3 percent from the 2011 production of 2.03 billion pounds. Weather was warm and dry during February which created favorable blooming conditions. Disease and insect pressure have been minimal. Grapefruit: The 2011-2012 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.13 million tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The route survey conducted in Florida showed 99 percent of the grapefruit rows were harvested. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 648,000 tons, up 7 percent from the previous forecast and up 3 percent from the 2010-2011 crop. Harvest was complete in Florida and Arizona. Lemons: The forecast for the 2011-2012 United States lemon crop is 830,000 tons, up 2 percent from the April 1 forecast but down 10 percent from the previous season's final utilization. Arizona's lemon crop is down 6 percent from the April 1 forecast and down 70 percent from last season due to damage from a major freeze in February 2011. California lemon production is up 3 percent from the previous forecast but down 2 percent from last season. The California lemon harvest was completed in the San Joaquin Valley and continued in the southern coastal region. Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.15 million boxes (52,000 tons), unchanged from both the previous forecast and last season's final utilization. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing areas, weather stations reported high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Rainfall was moderate across the citrus producing region during the first two weeks of the month until Tropical Storm Debby brought significant rainfall across Florida. Drought conditions were overcome in the citrus producing region after the storm, with the exception of the area located west of Lake Okeechobee and south to Collier County, which reported abnormally dry conditions. Harvesting of Valencia oranges finished. Fertilizer application, summer oil spraying, young tree care and grove maintenance were the primary grove activities during the month. California citrus: Harvest of Valencia oranges and lemons continued. Harvest of late navel oranges was nearly complete. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: In the San Joaquin Valley, harvest of plums, plumcots, peaches, and nectarines continued. Harvest of stone fruits also continued in the Sacramento Valley. Cling peaches were thinned. Cherry and apricot harvests neared completion across the State. Apple and pear bloom was complete and fruit began to develop. Kiwis were flowering. Figs were leafing out and setting fruit. Jujubes were in bloom. Table grapes in the Coachella Valley were being harvested. Vineyards across the State were sprayed for weeds and powdery mildew. In the Napa Valley, follow up pesticide applications for European Grapevine Moth were being made. Pomegranates were in bloom and fruit was beginning to develop. Olive bloom was complete. Blueberries and strawberries were being picked and packed. Almond nuts continued to develop with some limbs bowing due to a heavy crop. Growers prepared for hull split sprays, while spraying for the first generation of the Walnut Coddling Moth was completed. Pistachio shells were hardening. Statistical Methodology Wheat survey procedures: Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between June 24 and July 6 to gather information on expected yield as of July 1. The objective yield survey was conducted in 10 States that accounted for 60 percent of the 2011 winter wheat production. Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields. The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop's maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot, and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested. The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed, and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet, and personal interviewers. Approximately 8,900 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about the probable yield on their operation. These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields. Orange survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the July 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which accounts for 73 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components, are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Wheat estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates. The survey data were also reviewed considering weather patterns and crop progress compared to previous months and previous years. Each State Field Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecasts. Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published July 1 forecast. Revision policy: The July 1 production forecast will not be revised; instead, a new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season wheat estimates are made after harvest. At the end of the wheat marketing season, a balance sheet is calculated using carryover stocks, production, exports, millings, feeding, and ending stocks. Revisions are then made if the balance sheet relationships or other administrative data warrant changes. End-of-season orange estimates will be published in September's Citrus Fruits Summary. The orange production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the July 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the July 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of the squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 winter wheat production forecast is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current winter wheat production will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.4 percent. Differences between the July 1 winter wheat production forecast and the final estimate during the past 20 years have averaged 24 million bushels, ranging from less than 1 million to 65 million bushels. The July 1 forecast has been below the final estimate 10 times and above 10 times. This does not imply that the July 1 winter wheat forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the July 1 orange production forecast is 1.5 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production seasons (one freeze and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 1.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 1.5 percent, or 1.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 2.5 percent, or 2.4 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the July 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 124,000 tons (117,000 tons, excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 14,000 tons to 370,000 tons when including or excluding abnormal seasons. The July 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 5 times and above 12 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the July 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Suzanne Avilla - Peanuts, Rice.......................................... (202) 720-7688 Bryan Durham - Oats, Rye, Wheat......................................... (202) 720-8068 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. 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