Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released February 8, 2013, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down Less Than 1 Percent from January The United States all orange forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 8.79 million tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from the 2011-2012 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 141 million boxes (6.35 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast and down 4 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 66.0 million boxes (2.97 million tons), unchanged from the January forecast but down 11 percent from last season. Droppage is the highest since the 1969-1970 season while size is below average. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 75.0 million boxes (3.38 million tons), is down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 4 percent from the 2011-2012 crop. California and Texas forecasts are carried forward from January. Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2012-2013 season is 1.62 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up 1 percent from the January forecast but down 1 percent from last season's final yield of 1.63 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.49 gallons per box, down 3 percent from last season's yield of 1.53 gallons per box. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.73 gallons per box, 1 percent lower than last year's final yield of 1.75 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons. This report was approved on February 8, 2013. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Kathleen A. Merrigan Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Hubert Hamer Contents Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2011 and 2012......... 4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted February 1, 2013......................................................................................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units)............................... 10 Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units)................................. 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13 January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2011 and 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons -- : For sugar : Florida ......................: 380.0 393.6 37.5 37.8 14,250 14,878 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 15.1 15.5 85.2 84.8 1,287 1,314 Louisiana 2/ .................: 385.0 400.0 27.6 33.0 10,626 13,200 Texas 2/ .....................: 47.0 43.0 33.5 35.9 1,575 1,544 : United States ................: 827.1 852.1 33.5 36.3 27,738 30,936 : For seed : Florida ......................: 17.0 16.4 40.0 42.7 680 700 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 1.5 1.5 30.0 30.0 45 45 Louisiana 2/ .................: 25.0 28.0 27.6 33.0 690 924 Texas 2/ .....................: 2.0 1.0 35.5 32.0 71 32 : United States ................: 45.5 46.9 32.7 36.3 1,486 1,701 : For sugar and seed : Florida ......................: 397.0 410.0 37.6 38.0 14,930 15,578 Hawaii 2/ ....................: 16.6 17.0 80.2 79.9 1,332 1,359 Louisiana 2/ .................: 410.0 428.0 27.6 33.0 11,316 14,124 Texas 2/ .....................: 49.0 44.0 33.6 35.8 1,646 1,576 : United States ................: 872.6 899.0 33.5 36.3 29,224 32,637 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net tons. 2/ Estimates are carried forward from the "Crop Production 2012 Summary" released January 2013. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2011-2012 and Forecasted February 1, 2013 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ : Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2011-2012 : 2012-2013 : 2011-2012 : 2012-2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------- 1,000 boxes ------- ------- 1,000 tons ------ Oranges : Early, mid, and Navel 2/ : California 3/ ..............: 45,500 46,500 1,820 1,860 Florida ....................: 74,200 66,000 3,339 2,970 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,108 1,220 47 52 : United States ..............: 120,808 113,720 5,206 4,882 : Valencia : California 3/ ..............: 13,500 13,000 540 520 Florida ....................: 72,400 75,000 3,258 3,375 Texas 3/ ...................: 311 286 13 12 : United States ..............: 86,211 88,286 3,811 3,907 : All : California 3/ ..............: 59,000 59,500 2,360 2,380 Florida ....................: 146,600 141,000 6,597 6,345 Texas 3/ ...................: 1,419 1,506 60 64 : United States ..............: 207,019 202,006 9,017 8,789 : Grapefruit : White : Florida ....................: 5,350 5,000 228 213 : Colored : Florida ....................: 13,500 13,000 574 553 : All : California 3/ ..............: 4,400 4,000 176 160 Florida ....................: 18,850 18,000 802 766 Texas 3/ ...................: 4,800 5,280 192 211 : United States ..............: 28,050 27,280 1,170 1,137 : Tangerines and mandarins : Arizona 3/ 4/ ................: 200 200 8 8 California 3/ 4/ .............: 10,900 11,800 436 472 Florida ......................: 4,290 3,700 204 176 : United States ................: 15,390 15,700 648 656 : Lemons 3/ : Arizona ......................: 750 1,800 30 72 California ...................: 20,500 20,500 820 820 : United States ................: 21,250 22,300 850 892 : Tangelos : Florida ......................: 1,150 1,000 52 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80; tangelos-90. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida. 3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast. 4/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3,637 3,244 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 97,155 87,375 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 7,379 Hay, all .......................: (NA) 56,260 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 17,292 All other ....................: (NA) 38,968 Oats ...........................: 2,760 1,045 Proso millet ...................: 335 205 Rice ...........................: 2,699 2,678 Rye ............................: 1,300 248 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 6,244 4,955 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 363 Wheat, all .....................: 55,736 48,991 Winter .......................: 41,324 41,820 34,834 Durum ........................: 2,123 2,102 Other spring .................: 12,289 12,055 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1,765.0 1,729.0 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 344 336 Mustard seed ...................: 51.1 49.7 Peanuts ........................: 1,638.0 1,608.0 Rapeseed .......................: 2.2 2.1 Safflower ......................: 169.8 160.1 Soybeans for beans .............: 77,198 76,104 Sunflower ......................: 1,919.0 1,841.0 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all ....................: 12,315.4 9,426.8 Upland .......................: 12,077.0 9,190.0 American Pima ................: 238.4 236.8 Sugarbeets .....................: 1,230.1 1,204.2 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 899.0 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 336.2 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 19.0 13.7 Dry edible beans ...............: 1,742.5 1,690.4 Dry edible peas ................: 649.0 621.0 Lentils ........................: 463.0 450.0 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 6.1 Hops ...........................: (NA) 31.9 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 76.0 Potatoes, all ..................: 1,148.3 1,132.7 Spring .......................: 96.8 94.6 Summer .......................: 49.8 48.5 Fall .........................: 1,001.7 989.6 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 20.0 Sweet potatoes .................: 130.5 126.6 Taro (Hawaii) 2/ ...............: (NA) 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per acre : Production Crop :---------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 ----- : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 67.9 220,284 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 123.4 10,780,296 Corn for silage ....................tons: 15.4 113,450 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.13 119,878 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.01 52,049 All other ........................tons: 1.74 67,829 Oats ............................bushels: 61.3 64,024 Proso millet ....................bushels: 15.1 3,090 Rice 3/ .............................cwt: 7,449 199,479 Rye .............................bushels: 28.0 6,944 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 49.8 246,932 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 11.4 4,135 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 46.3 2,269,117 Winter ........................bushels: 47.2 1,645,202 Durum .........................bushels: 39.0 81,956 Other spring ..................bushels: 45.0 541,959 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,416 2,447,410 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 5,759.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 17.1 5,762 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 602 29,930 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 4,192 6,741,400 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,205 4,630 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,121 179,424 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 39.6 3,014,998 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,513 2,785,695 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 3/ ....................bales: 866 17,009.9 Upland 3/ .......................bales: 849 16,250.0 American Pima 3/ ................bales: 1,540 759.9 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.3 35,236 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 32,637 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,268 762,441 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas 3/ .............cwt: 1,219 167 Dry edible beans 3/ .................cwt: 1,889 31,925 Dry edible peas 3/ ..................cwt: 1,751 10,872 Lentils 3/ ..........................cwt: 1,178 5,302 Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt: (NA) 406 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ..................pounds: 1,180 7,200 Hops .............................pounds: 1,918 61,249.2 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 87 6,605 Potatoes, all .......................cwt: 412 467,126 Spring ............................cwt: 283 26,736 Summer ............................cwt: 368 17,855 Fall ..............................cwt: 427 422,535 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 120 2,390 Sweet potatoes ......................cwt: 209 26,482 Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds: (NA) 3,400 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acres. 3/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,471,860 1,312,810 Corn for grain 1/ ..............:39,317,660 35,359,790 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,986,210 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 22,767,860 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,997,900 All other ....................: (NA) 15,769,960 Oats ...........................: 1,116,940 422,900 Proso millet ...................: 135,570 82,960 Rice ...........................: 1,092,260 1,083,760 Rye ............................: 526,100 100,360 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,526,880 2,005,240 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 146,900 Wheat, all 2/ ..................:22,555,800 19,826,170 Winter .......................:16,723,410 16,924,140 14,096,970 Durum ........................: 859,160 850,660 Other spring .................: 4,973,240 4,878,540 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 714,280 699,710 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 139,210 135,980 Mustard seed ...................: 20,680 20,110 Peanuts ........................: 662,880 650,740 Rapeseed .......................: 890 850 Safflower ......................: 68,720 64,790 Soybeans for beans .............:31,241,260 30,798,530 Sunflower ......................: 776,600 745,030 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,983,920 3,814,930 Upland .......................: 4,887,440 3,719,100 American Pima ................: 96,480 95,830 Sugarbeets .....................: 497,810 487,330 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 363,820 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 136,070 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 7,690 5,540 Dry edible beans ...............: 705,170 684,090 Dry edible peas ................: 262,640 251,310 Lentils ........................: 187,370 182,110 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) (NA) : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: (NA) 2,470 Hops ...........................: (NA) 12,920 Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 30,760 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 464,710 458,390 Spring .......................: 39,170 38,280 Summer .......................: 20,150 19,630 Fall .........................: 405,380 400,480 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 8,090 Sweet potatoes .................: 52,810 51,230 Taro (Hawaii) 3/ ...............: (NA) 160 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2012 and 2013 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :----------------------------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 : 2012 : 2013 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 3.65 4,796,120 Corn for grain .................: 7.74 273,832,130 Corn for silage ................: 34.47 102,920,110 Hay, all 2/ ....................: 4.78 108,751,490 Alfalfa ......................: 6.75 47,218,060 All other ....................: 3.90 61,533,430 Oats ...........................: 2.20 929,310 Proso millet ...................: 0.84 70,080 Rice ...........................: 8.35 9,048,220 Rye ............................: 1.76 176,390 Sorghum for grain ..............: 3.13 6,272,360 Sorghum for silage .............: 25.54 3,751,210 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 3.11 61,755,240 Winter .......................: 3.18 44,775,060 Durum ........................: 2.62 2,230,480 Other spring .................: 3.02 14,749,710 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 1.59 1,110,130 Cottonseed .....................: (X) 5,224,480 Flaxseed .......................: 1.08 146,360 Mustard seed ...................: 0.67 13,580 Peanuts ........................: 4.70 3,057,850 Rapeseed .......................: 2.47 2,100 Safflower ......................: 1.26 81,390 Soybeans for beans .............: 2.66 82,054,800 Sunflower ......................: 1.70 1,263,570 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 0.97 3,703,470 Upland .......................: 0.95 3,538,020 American Pima ................: 1.73 165,450 Sugarbeets .....................: 65.59 31,965,560 Sugarcane ......................: 81.38 29,607,790 Tobacco ........................: 2.54 345,840 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Austrian winter peas ...........: 1.37 7,570 Dry edible beans ...............: 2.12 1,448,090 Dry edible peas ................: 1.96 493,150 Lentils ........................: 1.32 240,490 Wrinkled seed peas .............: (NA) 18,420 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Coffee (Hawaii) ................: 1.32 3,270 Hops ...........................: 2.15 27,780 Peppermint oil .................: 0.10 3,000 Potatoes, all 2/ ...............: 46.22 21,188,480 Spring .......................: 31.68 1,212,720 Summer .......................: 41.26 809,890 Fall .........................: 47.86 19,165,870 Spearmint oil ..................: 0.13 1,080 Sweet potatoes .................: 23.45 1,201,200 Taro (Hawaii) ..................: (NA) 1,540 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. 3/ Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Domestic Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ..............................tons: 1,170 1,137 Lemons ..................................tons: 850 892 Oranges .................................tons: 9,017 8,789 Tangelos (Florida) ......................tons: 52 45 Tangerines and mandarins ................tons: 648 656 : Noncitrus : Apples ..........................1,000 pounds: 9,061.1 Apricots ................................tons: 60.8 Bananas (Hawaii) ......................pounds: Grapes ..................................tons: 7,343.4 Olives (California) .....................tons: 160.0 Papayas (Hawaii) ......................pounds: Peaches .................................tons: 978.3 Pears ...................................tons: 858.2 Prunes, dried (California) ..............tons: 125.0 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ..tons: 13.2 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .........pounds: 2,000,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ............tons: 34.7 Pecans, in-shell ......................pounds: 302,800 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..........tons: 470 Maple syrup ..........................gallons: 1,908 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. Fruits and Nuts Production - United States: 2012 and 2013 (Metric Units) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2013 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2012-2013 season. Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------- : 2012 : 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ..................................: 1,061,410 1,031,470 Lemons ......................................: 771,110 809,210 Oranges .....................................: 8,180,080 7,973,250 Tangelos (Florida) ..........................: 47,170 40,820 Tangerines and mandarins ....................: 587,860 595,110 : Noncitrus : Apples ......................................: 4,110,050 Apricots ....................................: 55,160 Bananas (Hawaii) ............................: Grapes ......................................: 6,661,820 Olives (California) .........................: 145,150 Papayas (Hawaii) ............................: Peaches .....................................: 887,460 Pears .......................................: 778,580 Prunes, dried (California) ..................: 113,400 Prunes and plums (excludes California) ......: 12,010 : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) ...............: 907,180 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ................: 31,480 Pecans, in-shell ............................: 137,350 Walnuts, in-shell (California) ..............: 426,380 Maple syrup .................................: 9,540 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. January Weather Summary Despite sporadic January precipitation on the Plains, drought remained entrenched across the Nation's midsection. By month's end, at least half of the winter wheat was rated very poor to poor in Oklahoma (69 percent), South Dakota (66 percent), and Nebraska (50 percent). In Kansas, 39 percent of the winter wheat and 85 percent of the rangeland and pastures were rated very poor to poor on January 27. Precipitation was a little heavier on the northern Plains, where snow provided wheat with some protection from weather extremes. The southern Plains also received moisture from time to time, helping to offset the effects of mostly above-normal temperatures. In fact, above average monthly temperatures prevailed in nearly all areas from the Plains to the East Coast, despite a late-month cold outbreak that resulted in the coldest weather in 2 years in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. January temperature readings averaged more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in much of the Southeast. In contrast, frigid weather blanketed the Intermountain region, while near- to below-normal temperatures covered the remainder of the West. Meanwhile, abundant January precipitation fell from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians, as well as the Mid-Atlantic States. Lowland flooding affected several areas, primarily from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Ohio Valley. However, very little moisture spilled across the mountains into New England or the southern Atlantic States. In the latter region, the combination of warm, dry conditions led to heavy irrigation demands in Florida's winter agricultural belt. Elsewhere, disappointingly dry weather accompanied generally cool conditions in the West. For example, the average water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snow pack stood at 16 inches (90 percent of average) at month's end, compared to 14 inches (140 percent) on January 1. However, late-month storms provided some drought relief in the Southwest. January Agricultural Summary During January, near-normal temperatures blanketed the Nation's midsection. Conversely, monthly averages in portions of the West fell to more than 15 degrees below normal, while recordings in the Southeast climbed to more than 6 degrees above normal. Precipitation totals varied wildly across the country, ranging from less than 0.1 inch throughout much of the Hard Red Wheat region - where snow cover was virtually nonexistent - to more than 10 inches in portions of the Delta and Tennessee Valley. Beneficial rain and snow helped to replenish soil moisture levels in many areas east of the Mississippi River; however, unfavorably dry weather led to expansion of drought-like conditions in Florida's citrus-producing region. As the month began, growers in most producing States were harvesting early and mid-season citrus crops. Persistently warm temperatures in Florida led to earlier than normal bud development and bloom for avocado, mango, and peach trees. Cold overnight temperatures prompted the use of wind machines and heavy irrigation in many of California's orchards mid-month; damage assessments were ongoing as the month ended, with damage reported as minimal. Toward month's end, beekeepers in California moved hives into almond orchards as bud swell grew evident on many trees. Dry weather coupled with depleted soil moisture levels led to worsening winter wheat conditions on the southern Great Plains, while a limited snowpack throughout much of the major producing region left the crop exposed to potential temperature extremes. On January 27, thirty-nine percent of Kansas' winter wheat was reported in very poor or poor condition, compared with 31 percent on December 30. Similarly, 69 percent of Oklahoma's crop was reported as very poor or poor on January 27, compared with 61 percent on December 30. Crop Comments Tangelos: Florida's tangelo forecast is 1.00 million boxes (45,000 tons), down 9 percent from the January forecast and down 13 percent from last season's final utilization. The Row Count survey conducted January 29-30 showed 74 percent of the rows were harvested. Grapefruit: The 2012-2013 United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 1.14 million tons, unchanged from the January forecast but down 3 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, droppage for both white and colored grapefruit is expected to be the highest of any season not affected by a freeze or hurricane. The average size is expected to be the smallest since the 1968-1969 season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 656,000 tons, down 1 percent from the January forecast but up 1 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, sizes for all varieties of tangerines are expected to be below average with above average droppage. Arizona and California estimates are carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Florida citrus: In the citrus growing region, high temperatures for the month were in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows reached the low 30s in Citra and Putnam Hall, but avoided fruit damaging levels. Rainfall was sparse, worsening the drought conditions in all of the citrus producing regions, except for the western region, which is still drought free. Harvesting of early and mid oranges, grapefruit, tangelos, and tangerines continued. Harvesting, mowing, and general grove maintenance were the primary grove activities. California citrus: Cold weather resulted in heavy frosts across the State. Growers used wind machines and ran sprinklers to protect citrus crops from the freezing temperatures. Navel oranges, lemons, and limes continued to be harvested. Oro Blanco and Melogold grapefruit were picked and packed. Pummelo and Satsuma mandarin harvests continued. Owari and Clementine tangerine harvests finished. Seasonal fungicides were applied to all citrus crops. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Persimmon and kiwi harvests were complete. Apple harvest slowed down. In stone fruit orchards and grape vineyards, pruning and the application of dormant sprays continued. Buds were beginning to swell on stone fruit trees. Blueberries were being covered to help pollination. Almond stockpiles continued to be hulled. Buds were beginning to swell on almond trees with bloom expected to start soon. Beekeepers continued to move hives into the State. Pre-emergent spraying, orchard removal, planting, and pruning continued in walnut, almond, and pistachio orchards. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2012 is estimated at 32.6 million tons, of which 30.9 million tons was utilized for sugar and 1.70 million tons for seed. Total production for sugar and seed is unchanged from January but up 12 percent from 2011. Sugarcane producers harvested 899,000 acres for sugar and seed in 2012, unchanged from the January forecast. Yield for sugar and seed is estimated at 36.3 tons per acre, unchanged from January. In Florida, harvest continued with very few weather interruptions. Estimates for Hawaii, Louisiana, and Texas were carried forward from January. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida, which produces about 72 percent of the United States production. Bearing tree numbers are determined at the start of the season based on a fruit tree census conducted every other year, combined with ongoing review based on administrative data or special surveys. From mid-July to mid-September, the number of fruit per tree is determined. In September and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and packer surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers and packers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecast will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in September. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecast, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 3.2 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and two hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 3.1 percent. This means chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.2 percent, or 3.1 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 5.5 percent, or 5.3 percent, excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 293,000 tons (284,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 638,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 9 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply the February 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@nass.usda.gov Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch............................................. (202) 720-2127 Jacqueline Moore, Head, Field Crops Section.................................. (202) 720-2127 Brent Chittenden - Oats, Rye, Wheat..................................... (202) 720-8068 Angie Considine - Peanuts, Rice......................................... (202) 720-7688 Steve Maliszewski - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum.................... (202) 720-5944 Anthony Prillaman - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet........................ (202) 720-9526 Julie Schmidt - Crop Weather, Barley, Hay............................... (202) 720-7621 Travis Thorson - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.................... (202) 720-7369 Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section...... (202) 720-2127 Debbie Flippin - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions, Strawberries.. (202) 720-2157 Fred Granja - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco ....... (202) 720-4288 Chris Hawthorn - Citrus, Coffee, Grapes, Sugar Crops, Tropical Fruits... (202) 720-5412 Dave Losh - Hops........................................................ (360) 709-2400 Dan Norris - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas, Dry Beans .......... (202) 720-3250 Daphne Schauber - Berries, Cranberries, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes ....... (202) 720-4285 Erika White - Floriculture, Maple Syrup, Nursery, Tree Nuts ............ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: http://www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit http://www.nass.usda.gov and in the "Follow NASS" box under "Receive reports by Email," click on "National" or "State" to select the reports you would like to receive. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. 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