HDR1012000130020327971500HOGS AND PIGS Hogs and Pigs National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 27, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Hogs and Pigs" call Mike Pallesen at (202) 720-3106, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory Down 1 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 1997, was 55.9 million head. This was 1 percent below March 1996 and slightly below the December 1, 1996, inventory. Breeding inventory, at 6.80 million head is up 1 percent from March 1, 1996 and up 2 percent from December 1, 1996. Market hog inventory, at 49.1 million head was 1 percent below both last year and last quarter. Mt An 4 (3-97) The December 1996-February 1997 U.S. pig crop at 23.1 million head was slightly more than 1996 but 3 percent less than 1995. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.68 million head, 2 percent below last year. Litter rate increases continue at a record level, with an average of 8.62 pigs saved per litter for the December-February period. Last year the litter rate averaged 8.40 pigs per litter. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.20 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 8.90 for operations with more than 2,000 hogs and pigs. U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow during the March-May 1997 quarter, slightly below the actual farrowings during the same period last year, and 7 percent lower than 1995. Intended farrowings for June-August 1997, at 2.82 million sows are 2 percent above 1996 but 5 percent below the 1995 period. The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head total inventory, but raised by contractees, accounted for 24 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory. This compares to 21 percent in December 1996. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for 1996 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, import, and export data in U. S. level balance sheets. Based on the findings of this review, slight revisions were made to the inventories for December 1996. This report was approved on March 27, 1997, by the Secretary of Agriculture and the National Agricultural Statistics Service's Agricultural Statistics Board. Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :1997 as % of Item : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 :------------- : : : : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent : March 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 58,465 56,340 55,900 96 99 Kept for Breeding : 6,998 6,765 6,800 97 101 Market : 51,467 49,575 49,100 95 99 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 19,251 18,790 18,660 97 99 60-119 Pounds : 12,498 11,980 11,730 94 98 120-179 Pounds : 10,594 10,095 10,070 95 100 180 Pounds and Over : 9,124 8,710 8,640 95 99 : June 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 59,560 57,200 Kept for Breeding : 7,180 6,870 Market : 52,380 50,330 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 21,270 20,265 60-119 Pounds : 13,060 12,700 120-179 Pounds : 9,865 9,800 180 Pounds and Over : 8,185 7,565 : September 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 60,540 58,200 Kept for Breeding : 6,898 6,770 Market : 53,642 51,430 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,235 19,330 60-119 Pounds : 13,532 12,800 120-179 Pounds : 10,985 10,600 180 Pounds and Over : 8,890 8,700 : December 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 58,264 56,171 Kept for Breeding : 6,839 6,655 Market : 51,425 49,516 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 18,881 18,414 60-119 Pounds : 12,808 12,239 120-179 Pounds : 10,702 10,315 180 Pounds and Over : 9,034 8,548 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, United States, 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1997 as % of Item : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 :--------------- : : : : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ Percent : Sows Farrowing : Dec-Feb 1/ : 2,886 2,745 2,677 93 98 Mar-May 2/ : 3,170 2,964 2,962 93 100 Dec-May 1/ 3/ : 6,056 5,709 5,639 93 99 : Jun-Aug 2/ : 2,976 2,761 2,816 95 102 Sep-Nov : 2,815 2,717 Jun-Nov : 5,791 5,478 : Pig Crop : Dec-Feb 1/ : 23,851 23,054 23,069 97 100 Mar-May : 26,373 25,092 Dec-May 1/ : 50,224 48,146 : Jun-Aug : 24,813 23,667 Sep-Nov : 23,479 23,159 Jun-Nov : 48,292 46,826 : : ------------- Number ------------- Pigs per Litter : Dec-Feb 1/ : 8.27 8.40 8.62 104 103 Mar-May : 8.32 8.47 Dec-May 1/ : 8.29 8.43 : Jun-Aug : 8.34 8.57 Sep-Nov : 8.34 8.52 Jun-Nov : 8.34 8.55 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions for 1997. 3/ Actual farrowings for December-February 1997 plus intentions for March-May 1997. Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Pigs per Litter on Operations Having Pig Crop :------------------------------------------------------------------- :1-99 Head: 100-499 Hd : 500-999 Hd :1,000-1,999 Hd : 2,000+ Head -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1996 : Dec-Feb 1/ : 6.90 7.80 7.90 8.40 8.80 Mar-May : 7.70 8.10 8.10 8.50 8.70 Jun-Aug : 7.50 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.80 Sep-Nov : 7.30 7.90 8.30 8.30 8.80 : 1997 : Dec-Feb 1/ : 7.20 7.70 8.10 8.40 8.90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. Monthly Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop United States, December-November 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : Pigs per Litter : Pig Crop Month :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- ---- Number ---- --- 1,000 Head --- : Dec 1/ : 925 880 8.29 8.59 7,671 7,560 Jan : 861 896 8.40 8.62 7,231 7,725 Feb : 959 901 8.50 8.64 8,152 7,784 Mar : 972 8.49 8,251 Apr : 970 8.43 8,181 May : 1,022 8.47 8,660 Jun : 923 8.46 7,805 Jul : 908 8.65 7,850 Aug : 930 8.62 8,012 Sep : 890 8.45 7,520 Oct : 920 8.50 7,818 Nov : 907 8.62 7,821 : Total : 11,187 2,677 8.50 8.62 94,972 23,069 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, 17 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :1997 as % of Item : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 :------------- : : : : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent : March 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 54,070 51,940 51,730 96 100 Kept for Breeding : 6,360 6,165 6,240 98 101 Market : 47,710 45,775 45,490 95 99 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 17,750 17,340 17,260 97 100 60-119 Pounds : 11,580 10,980 10,860 94 99 120-179 Pounds : 9,900 9,345 9,350 94 100 180 Pounds and Over : 8,480 8,110 8,020 95 99 : June 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 55,045 52,750 Kept for Breeding : 6,515 6,220 Market : 48,530 46,530 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 19,600 18,645 60-119 Pounds : 12,010 11,660 120-179 Pounds : 9,185 9,110 180 Pounds and Over : 7,735 7,115 : September 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 55,920 53,700 Kept for Breeding : 6,390 6,120 Market : 49,530 47,580 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 18,475 17,720 60-119 Pounds : 12,470 11,900 120-179 Pounds : 10,265 9,850 180 Pounds and Over : 8,320 8,110 : December 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 53,920 52,070 Kept for Breeding : 6,225 6,050 Market : 47,695 46,020 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 17,505 17,160 60-119 Pounds : 11,910 11,405 120-179 Pounds : 9,930 9,580 180 Pounds and Over : 8,350 7,875 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, PA, SD, and WI. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, 17 States, 1995-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1997 as % of Item : 1995 : 1996 : 1997 :--------------- : : : : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ Percent : Sows Farrowing : Dec-Feb 2/ : 2,645 2,525 2,467 93 98 Mar-May 3/ : 2,912 2,714 2,722 93 100 Dec-May 2/ 4/ : 5,557 5,239 5,189 93 99 : Jun-Aug 3/ : 2,730 2,525 2,586 95 102 Sep-Nov : 2,585 2,492 Jun-Nov : 5,315 5,017 : Pig Crop : Dec-Feb 2/ : 21,927 21,272 21,305 97 100 Mar-May : 24,304 23,042 Dec-May 2/ : 46,231 44,314 : Jun-Aug : 22,818 21,653 Sep-Nov : 21,600 21,279 Jun-Nov : 44,418 42,932 : : ------------- Number ------------- Pigs per Litter : Dec-Feb 2/ : 8.29 8.42 8.64 104 103 Mar-May : 8.35 8.49 Dec-May 2/ : 8.32 8.46 : Jun-Aug : 8.36 8.58 Sep-Nov : 8.36 8.54 Jun-Nov : 8.36 8.56 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MI, MN, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, PA, SD, and WI. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Intentions for 1997. 4/ Actual farrowings for December-February 1997 plus intentions for March-May 1997. Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Numbers,Breeding, Market, and Total by State and United States, March 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : : 1997 : : 1997 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 115 110 96 675 750 111 790 860 109 GA : 130 105 81 770 695 90 900 800 89 IL : 580 550 95 4,170 3,850 92 4,750 4,400 93 IN : 470 450 96 3,430 3,150 92 3,900 3,600 92 IA : 1,270 1,300 102 11,230 10,800 96 12,500 12,100 97 KS : 160 180 113 1,040 1,180 113 1,200 1,360 113 KY : 95 80 84 635 520 82 730 600 82 MI : 150 130 87 850 820 96 1,000 950 95 MN : 550 600 109 4,250 4,400 104 4,800 5,000 104 MO : 480 460 96 2,870 2,840 99 3,350 3,300 99 NE : 440 450 102 3,260 3,100 95 3,700 3,550 96 NC : 935 1,050 112 7,465 8,450 113 8,400 9,500 113 OH : 230 200 87 1,420 1,250 88 1,650 1,450 88 OK : 160 180 113 890 1,190 134 1,050 1,370 130 PA : 110 120 109 930 850 91 1,040 970 93 SD : 170 160 94 1,150 970 84 1,320 1,130 86 WI : 120 115 96 740 675 91 860 790 92 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 600 560 93 3,800 3,610 95 4,400 4,170 95 : US : 6,765 6,800 101 49,575 49,100 99 56,340 55,900 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, March 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 310 260 145 175 135 170 85 145 GA : 305 275 200 180 170 150 95 90 IL : 1,520 1,400 980 900 900 870 770 680 IN : 1,250 1,170 880 790 680 640 620 550 IA : 3,800 3,700 2,830 2,800 2,450 2,300 2,150 2,000 KS : 405 490 240 235 210 210 185 245 KY : 245 205 160 130 125 105 105 80 MI : 275 270 210 205 190 190 175 155 MN : 1,660 1,640 1,020 1,070 870 920 700 770 MO : 1,210 1,260 650 630 570 550 440 400 NE : 1,280 1,250 800 760 630 590 550 500 NC : 3,050 3,400 1,680 1,920 1,400 1,680 1,335 1,450 OH : 590 560 340 260 300 290 190 140 OK : 380 410 155 200 135 190 220 390 PA : 345 330 225 220 195 170 165 130 SD : 430 375 275 220 240 200 205 175 WI : 285 265 190 165 145 125 120 120 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,450 1,400 1,000 870 750 720 600 620 : US : 18,790 18,660 11,980 11,730 10,095 10,070 8,710 8,640 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, June 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1996 : : 1996 : : 1996 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 120 110 92 680 660 97 800 770 96 GA : 125 110 88 805 760 94 930 870 94 IL : 680 580 85 4,720 4,120 87 5,400 4,700 87 IN : 530 460 87 3,820 3,390 89 4,350 3,850 89 IA : 1,450 1,300 90 12,550 11,500 92 14,000 12,800 91 KS : 145 180 124 1,085 1,140 105 1,230 1,320 107 KY : 105 85 81 665 565 85 770 650 84 MI : 150 140 93 1,050 960 91 1,200 1,100 92 MN : 580 550 95 4,320 4,200 97 4,900 4,750 97 MO : 475 570 120 3,025 2,980 99 3,500 3,550 101 NE : 510 450 88 3,740 3,350 90 4,250 3,800 89 NC : 840 950 113 6,760 7,950 118 7,600 8,900 117 OH : 240 210 88 1,485 1,290 87 1,725 1,500 87 OK : 140 160 114 650 990 152 790 1,150 146 PA : 110 110 100 950 910 96 1,060 1,020 96 SD : 180 140 78 1,390 1,060 76 1,570 1,200 76 WI : 135 115 85 835 705 84 970 820 85 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 665 650 98 3,850 3,800 99 4,515 4,450 99 : US : 7,180 6,870 96 52,380 50,330 96 59,560 57,200 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, June 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 340 300 130 150 130 110 80 100 GA : 325 310 210 200 170 160 100 90 IL : 1,870 1,600 1,190 1,070 940 860 720 590 IN : 1,435 1,270 950 870 745 670 690 580 IA : 5,000 4,450 3,300 3,080 2,350 2,290 1,900 1,680 KS : 390 450 285 290 230 230 180 170 KY : 265 230 170 145 125 110 105 80 MI : 515 475 205 195 170 165 160 125 MN : 1,680 1,640 1,060 1,040 860 840 720 680 MO : 1,350 1,370 725 690 530 530 420 390 NE : 1,580 1,420 900 840 650 600 610 490 NC : 2,600 3,070 1,630 1,920 1,360 1,630 1,170 1,330 OH : 700 600 340 310 240 240 205 140 OK : 270 420 145 190 105 150 130 230 PA : 330 330 240 230 195 190 185 160 SD : 630 430 315 260 220 200 225 170 WI : 320 280 215 180 165 135 135 110 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,670 1,620 1,050 1,040 680 690 450 450 : US : 21,270 20,265 13,060 12,700 9,865 9,800 8,185 7,565 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, September 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1996 : : 1996 : : 1996 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 120 110 92 670 725 108 790 835 106 GA : 135 115 85 815 755 93 950 870 92 IL : 630 560 89 4,670 4,140 89 5,300 4,700 89 IN : 510 450 88 3,840 3,350 87 4,350 3,800 87 IA : 1,400 1,250 89 12,900 11,750 91 14,300 13,000 91 KS : 145 185 128 1,135 1,365 120 1,280 1,550 121 KY : 110 85 77 690 550 80 800 635 79 MI : 135 125 93 1,095 1,005 92 1,230 1,130 92 MN : 550 560 102 4,400 4,340 99 4,950 4,900 99 MO : 450 520 116 3,050 3,030 99 3,500 3,550 101 NE : 500 450 90 3,650 3,250 89 4,150 3,700 89 NC : 880 980 111 7,220 8,320 115 8,100 9,300 115 OH : 250 220 88 1,590 1,330 84 1,840 1,550 84 OK : 145 160 110 705 1,070 152 850 1,230 145 PA : 110 105 95 940 895 95 1,050 1,000 95 SD : 190 130 68 1,360 1,010 74 1,550 1,140 74 WI : 130 115 88 800 695 87 930 810 87 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 508 650 128 4,112 3,850 94 4,620 4,500 97 : US : 6,898 6,770 98 53,642 51,430 96 60,540 58,200 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, September 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 255 270 150 175 170 145 95 135 GA : 335 300 205 185 155 150 120 120 IL : 1,520 1,450 1,210 1,020 1,060 890 880 780 IN : 1,305 1,190 1,005 870 850 730 680 560 IA : 4,450 3,750 3,600 3,350 2,700 2,550 2,150 2,100 KS : 400 575 280 285 250 275 205 230 KY : 270 225 170 145 135 100 115 80 MI : 355 325 320 290 225 210 195 180 MN : 1,720 1,700 1,070 1,060 860 840 750 740 MO : 1,360 1,330 660 660 570 600 460 440 NE : 1,540 1,350 860 790 740 660 510 450 NC : 2,850 3,280 1,650 1,910 1,440 1,730 1,280 1,400 OH : 660 560 380 320 340 250 210 200 OK : 325 440 110 190 105 185 165 255 PA : 325 325 245 220 200 190 170 160 SD : 495 375 350 260 310 210 205 165 WI : 310 275 205 170 155 135 130 115 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,760 1,610 1,062 900 720 750 570 590 : US : 20,235 19,330 13,532 12,800 10,985 10,600 8,890 8,700 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, December 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1996 : : 1996 : : 1996 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of: 1995 : :as % of : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 : :Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 110 100 680 715 105 790 825 104 GA : 125 110 88 775 690 89 900 800 89 IL : 550 520 95 4,250 3,880 91 4,800 4,400 92 IN : 460 460 100 3,540 3,290 93 4,000 3,750 94 IA : 1,350 1,250 93 12,050 10,950 91 13,400 12,200 91 KS : 150 190 127 1,080 1,260 117 1,230 1,450 118 KY : 110 85 77 690 540 78 800 625 78 MI : 140 125 89 960 875 91 1,100 1,000 91 MN : 550 540 98 4,400 4,310 98 4,950 4,850 98 MO : 480 450 94 3,070 3,050 99 3,550 3,500 99 NE : 500 450 90 3,550 3,150 89 4,050 3,600 89 NC : 890 1,000 112 7,310 8,300 114 8,200 9,300 113 OH : 240 210 88 1,560 1,290 83 1,800 1,500 83 OK : 160 170 106 840 1,150 137 1,000 1,320 132 PA : 105 105 100 895 845 94 1,000 950 95 SD : 180 155 86 1,270 1,045 82 1,450 1,200 83 WI : 125 120 96 775 680 88 900 800 89 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 614 605 99 3,730 3,496 94 4,344 4,101 94 : US : 6,839 6,655 97 51,425 49,516 96 58,264 56,171 96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, December 1, 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 330 255 150 170 140 150 60 140 GA : 280 250 220 195 170 145 105 100 IL : 1,470 1,380 1,070 960 920 840 790 700 IN : 1,180 1,150 935 840 750 725 675 575 IA : 4,250 3,850 3,050 2,900 2,600 2,300 2,150 1,900 KS : 360 510 290 280 235 250 195 220 KY : 270 215 180 135 135 105 105 85 MI : 305 285 225 200 235 210 195 180 MN : 1,640 1,590 1,090 1,070 900 890 770 760 MO : 1,330 1,300 700 680 480 560 560 510 NE : 1,350 1,200 930 830 740 650 530 470 NC : 2,750 3,250 1,750 1,950 1,550 1,750 1,260 1,350 OH : 590 570 400 300 340 280 230 140 OK : 370 420 155 220 110 210 205 300 PA : 300 290 235 220 195 175 165 160 SD : 430 375 330 280 280 210 230 180 WI : 300 270 200 175 150 130 125 105 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,376 1,254 898 834 772 735 684 673 : US : 18,881 18,414 12,808 12,239 10,702 10,315 9,034 8,548 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, December-February 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 1997 : per Litter : : 1997 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 1996 : :as % of : : : 1996 : :as % of : : Number : 1996 : 1996 : 1997 : : Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 54 52 96 9.10 8.50 491 442 90 GA : 42 38 90 8.00 8.05 336 306 91 IL : 210 200 95 8.20 8.50 1,722 1,700 99 IN : 200 180 90 8.20 8.50 1,640 1,530 93 IA : 535 460 86 8.25 8.50 4,414 3,910 89 KS : 62 80 129 8.20 9.10 508 728 143 KY : 38 31 82 8.10 8.30 308 257 83 MI : 40 40 100 8.20 8.40 328 336 102 MN : 240 230 96 8.80 8.70 2,112 2,001 95 MO : 180 180 100 8.00 8.60 1,440 1,548 108 NE : 175 175 100 8.50 8.45 1,488 1,479 99 NC : 450 500 111 8.75 8.90 3,938 4,450 113 OH : 80 75 94 8.20 8.30 656 623 95 OK : 62 78 126 9.20 9.50 570 741 130 PA : 44 44 100 8.60 8.50 378 374 99 SD : 65 60 92 8.60 8.50 559 510 91 WI : 48 44 92 8.00 8.40 384 370 96 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 220 210 95 8.10 8.40 1,782 1,764 99 : US : 2,745 2,677 98 8.40 8.62 23,054 23,069 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Number of pigs born December-February on hand March 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, March-May 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 1997 2/ : per Litter : : 1996 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1995 : 1996 : :as % of: : : 1995 : :as % of : : :Number : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : :Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Percent : AR : 52 57 53 93 9.10 8.50 473 485 103 GA : 49 45 38 84 8.10 8.45 397 380 96 IL : 295 250 240 96 8.10 8.40 2,390 2,100 88 IN : 230 195 180 92 8.20 8.30 1,886 1,619 86 IA : 650 570 560 98 8.30 8.40 5,395 4,788 89 KS : 64 70 90 129 7.95 8.40 509 588 116 KY : 43 34 30 88 7.60 8.25 327 281 86 MI : 82 65 60 92 7.70 8.10 631 527 84 MN : 260 245 245 100 8.70 8.70 2,262 2,132 94 MO : 205 200 190 95 8.50 8.40 1,743 1,680 96 NE : 230 195 195 100 8.25 8.50 1,898 1,658 87 NC : 400 460 510 111 8.65 8.70 3,460 4,002 116 OH : 100 88 85 97 8.30 8.25 830 726 87 OK : 52 76 85 112 9.40 9.50 481 722 150 PA : 44 44 45 102 8.40 8.40 370 370 100 SD : 100 74 70 95 8.10 8.20 810 607 75 WI : 56 46 46 100 7.90 8.20 442 377 85 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 258 250 240 96 8.02 8.20 2,069 2,050 99 : US : 3,170 2,964 2,962 100 8.32 8.47 26,373 25,092 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born March-May on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2/ Intentions. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, June-August 1995-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 1997 2/ : per Litter : : 1996 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1995 : 1996 : :as % of: : : 1995 : :as % of : : :Number : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : :Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 54 54 52 96 9.20 8.50 497 459 92 GA : 45 43 37 86 8.15 8.40 367 361 98 IL : 240 220 215 98 8.00 8.50 1,920 1,870 97 IN : 210 185 180 97 8.10 8.30 1,701 1,536 90 IA : 625 500 510 102 8.20 8.50 5,125 4,250 83 KS : 62 81 90 111 8.20 8.80 508 713 140 KY : 44 33 29 88 7.70 8.25 339 272 80 MI : 60 52 50 96 8.10 8.30 486 432 89 MN : 250 235 240 102 8.65 8.70 2,163 2,045 95 MO : 200 180 180 100 8.60 8.60 1,720 1,548 90 NE : 195 165 175 106 8.35 8.55 1,628 1,411 87 NC : 420 470 520 111 8.65 8.75 3,633 4,113 113 OH : 95 85 80 94 8.40 8.20 798 697 87 OK : 55 79 85 108 9.30 9.30 512 735 144 PA : 42 42 44 105 8.50 8.50 357 357 100 SD : 79 56 55 98 8.20 8.50 648 476 73 WI : 54 45 44 98 7.70 8.40 416 378 91 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 246 236 230 97 8.11 8.53 1,995 2,014 101 : US : 2,976 2,761 2,816 102 8.34 8.57 24,813 23,667 95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born June-August on hand September 1, or had been sold. 2/ Intentions. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, September-November 1995-96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 1996 : per Litter : : 1996 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 1995 : :as % of : : : 1995 : :as % of : : Number : 1995 : 1995 : 1996 : : Number : 1995 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 50 52 104 9.30 8.40 465 437 94 GA : 40 35 88 8.35 8.30 334 291 87 IL : 230 220 96 8.00 8.35 1,840 1,837 100 IN : 185 180 97 8.20 8.35 1,517 1,503 99 IA : 570 480 84 8.25 8.45 4,703 4,056 86 KS : 57 85 149 8.30 9.00 473 765 162 KY : 42 32 76 8.10 8.30 340 266 78 MN : 240 225 94 8.70 8.80 2,088 1,980 95 MO : 210 185 88 8.30 8.40 1,743 1,554 89 NE : 190 170 89 8.45 8.40 1,606 1,428 89 NC : 420 475 113 8.55 8.75 3,591 4,156 116 OH : 87 80 92 8.00 8.30 696 664 95 OK : 63 78 124 9.00 9.50 567 741 131 PA : 40 41 103 8.50 8.40 340 344 101 SD : 70 65 93 8.20 8.25 574 536 93 WI : 46 44 96 7.90 8.10 363 356 98 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 230 225 98 8.16 8.34 1,879 1,880 100 : US : 2,815 2,717 97 8.34 8.52 23,479 23,159 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born September-November on hand December 1, or had been sold. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Reliability of March 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of 14,420 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 12,181 operations, 84.5 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of March by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of March 1. Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Commerce's five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 55.9 million head by more than 1.9 percent, or about 1,062,100 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 4.0 percent, or about 2,236,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of March 1 Hog Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : 90% : Difference Between : : Root : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Mean : Level : Estimates : Quarters 2/ : Square :------------------------------------------------------- : Error : : : : : : First : First : :Percent:(000):Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : :Head : : : : Final : Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Percent --------- 1,000 Head ---------- - Number - : All Hogs & : 1.9 4.0 2,236 856 0 2,220 10 8 Pigs 2/ : : Pig Crop : 2.8 6.2 1,430 551 0 1,428 9 10 : Expected : Farrowings : : Next : Quarter : 3.9 8.3 246 99 6 237 14 6 : Following : Quarter : 5.3 11.4 321 125 10 346 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Based on quarterly records for the past 20 quarters. 2/ No change was recorded in some quarters. Index Page Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, 17 States ...... 8 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, September-November, Quarterly States ..................................... 20 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, March-May, Quarterly States .............................................. 18 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, US.............. 4 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, December-February, Quarterly States ...................................... 17 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, June-August, Quarterly States ............................................ 19 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Number, by Quarter, US ........................... 3 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Number, by Quarter, 17 States ..................... 7 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, September 1 .......................... 13 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, December 1 ........................... 15 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, June 1 ............................... 11 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, March 1 .............................. 9 Monthly Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, December-November, 1996, US .............................................. 5 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation, US .................................. 4 Survey and Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability .......................................................... 21 The next "Hogs and Pigs" report will be released at 3 P.M. 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