Hogs and Pigs National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 27, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Hogs and Pigs" call Greg Matli at 202-720-3106, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory Up 8 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 1998, was 60.1 million head. This was 8 percent above March 1997, but 1 percent below December 1, 1997. Breeding inventory, at 6.99 million head, was up 2 percent from March 1, 1997 and unchanged from December 1, 1997. Market hog inventory, at 53.1 million head, was 8 percent above last year, but 2 percent below last quarter. The December 1997-February 1998 U.S. pig crop, at 25.2 million head, was 8 percent more than 1997 and 9 percent more than 1996. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.90 million head, 7 percent above last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 41 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs per litter continues to increase, with an average of 8.68 pigs saved per litter for the December-February period. Last year the litter rate averaged 8.61 pigs. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.10 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 8.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.04 million sows farrow during the March-May 1998 quarter, 3 percent above the actual farrowings during the same period in both 1997 and 1996. Intended farrowings for June-August 1998, at 3.00 million sows, are 1 percent above the same period last year and 9 percent above 1996. The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 26 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for 1997 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, import, and export data in U.S. level balance sheets. Based on the findings of this review, the September 1, 1997 inventory was revised up 1.3 percent and the December 1, 1997 inventory up 1.7 percent. The 1997 June-August pig crop was revised up 2.3 percent. ************************************************************************* * Corrected Report * * * *The "Other States" values were corrected for all tables, except March 1* *Inventory, and December-February, Farrowings and Pig Crop. Individual * *state values and U.S. totals are unchanged for all tables. * ************************************************************************* Mt An 4 (3-98)a Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United States, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :1998 as % of Item : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 :------------- : : : : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent : March 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 56,340 55,838 60,070 107 108 Kept for Breeding : 6,765 6,842 6,986 103 102 Market : 49,575 48,996 53,084 107 108 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 18,790 18,575 20,129 107 108 60-119 Pounds : 11,980 11,713 12,750 106 109 120-179 Pounds : 10,095 10,032 10,787 107 108 180 Pounds and Over : 8,710 8,676 9,418 108 109 : June 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 57,150 58,262 Kept for Breeding : 6,860 6,960 Market : 50,290 51,302 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,245 20,337 60-119 Pounds : 12,690 12,774 120-179 Pounds : 9,795 10,131 180 Pounds and Over : 7,560 8,060 : September 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 58,150 61,160 Kept for Breeding : 6,765 6,947 Market : 51,385 54,213 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 19,320 20,876 60-119 Pounds : 12,780 13,528 120-179 Pounds : 10,590 10,834 180 Pounds and Over : 8,695 8,975 : December 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 56,141 60,915 Kept for Breeding : 6,667 6,988 Market : 49,474 53,927 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 18,439 20,104 60-119 Pounds : 12,221 13,260 120-179 Pounds : 10,291 11,179 180 Pounds and Over : 8,522 9,384 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop and Pigs Per Litter, United States, 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : 1998 as % of Item : 1996 : 1997 : 1998 :--------------- : : : : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ Percent : Sows Farrowing : Dec-Feb 1/ : 2,757 2,702 2,898 105 107 Mar-May 2/ : 2,955 2,944 3,038 103 103 Dec-May 1/ 3/ : 5,712 5,646 5,936 104 105 : Jun-Aug 2/ : 2,758 2,958 2,997 109 101 Sep-Nov : 2,717 2,928 Jun-Nov : 5,475 5,886 : Pig Crop : Dec-Feb 1/ : 23,161 23,264 25,164 109 108 Mar-May : 25,040 25,491 Dec-May 1/ : 48,201 48,755 : Jun-Aug : 23,597 25,798 Sep-Nov : 23,159 25,307 Jun-Nov : 46,756 51,105 : : ------------- Number ------------- Pigs per Litter : Dec-Feb 1/ : 8.40 8.61 8.68 103 101 Mar-May : 8.47 8.66 Dec-May 1/ : 8.44 8.64 : Jun-Aug : 8.56 8.72 Sep-Nov : 8.52 8.64 Jun-Nov : 8.54 8.68 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions for 1998. 3/ Actual farrowings for December-February 1998 plus intentions for March-May 1998. Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Pigs per Litter on Operations Having :----------------------------------------------------------------- Pig Crop : 1-99 : 100-499 : 500-999 :1,000-1,999:2,000-4,999: 5,000+ : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 1997 : Dec-Feb 1/ : 7.20 7.70 8.10 8.40 8.60 8.90 Mar-May : 7.60 7.90 8.20 8.40 8.60 9.00 Jun-Aug : 7.50 7.90 8.20 8.50 8.70 9.00 Sep-Nov : 7.40 8.10 8.30 8.60 8.70 9.00 : 1998 : Dec-Feb 1/ : 7.10 7.90 8.30 8.50 8.80 8.90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. Monthly Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop, United States December-November 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : Pigs per Litter : Pig Crop Month :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head -- ---- Number ---- --- 1,000 Head --- : Dec 1/ : 895 935 8.51 8.67 7,620 8,104 Jan : 885 973 8.64 8.74 7,644 8,500 Feb : 922 990 8.68 8.65 8,000 8,560 Mar : 950 8.44 8,020 Apr : 999 8.62 8,610 May : 995 8.91 8,861 Jun : 990 8.26 8,180 Jul : 980 9.09 8,910 Aug : 988 8.81 8,708 Sep : 965 8.40 8,105 Oct : 988 8.81 8,700 Nov : 975 8.72 8,502 : Total : 11,532 8.66 99,860 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, March 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1998 : : 1998 : : 1998 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1997 : :as % of: 1997 : :as % of: 1997 : :as % of : :Number : 1997 : :Number : 1997 : :Number : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 110 100 750 700 93 860 810 94 GA : 110 100 91 720 620 86 830 720 87 IL : 550 550 100 3,850 4,200 109 4,400 4,750 108 IN : 450 470 104 3,150 3,530 112 3,600 4,000 111 IA : 1,300 1,300 100 10,800 12,800 119 12,100 14,100 117 KS : 180 190 106 1,180 1,230 104 1,360 1,420 104 KY : 80 70 88 520 490 94 600 560 93 MI : 130 130 100 820 870 106 950 1,000 105 MN : 600 620 103 4,400 4,880 111 5,000 5,500 110 MO : 450 440 98 2,800 2,960 106 3,250 3,400 105 NE : 450 430 96 3,100 3,070 99 3,550 3,500 99 NC : 1,050 1,100 105 8,450 8,500 101 9,500 9,600 101 OH : 200 200 100 1,250 1,380 110 1,450 1,580 109 OK : 180 250 139 1,190 1,520 128 1,370 1,770 129 PA : 120 120 100 850 880 104 970 1,000 103 SD : 160 150 94 970 1,100 113 1,130 1,250 111 WI : 115 105 91 675 625 93 790 730 92 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 607 651 107 3,521 3,729 106 4,128 4,380 106 : US : 6,842 6,986 102 48,996 53,084 108 55,838 60,070 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, March 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 260 220 175 175 170 155 145 150 GA : 285 235 185 160 155 130 95 95 IL : 1,400 1,520 900 990 870 960 680 730 IN : 1,170 1,320 790 900 640 700 550 610 IA : 3,700 4,150 2,820 3,400 2,280 2,800 2,000 2,450 KS : 490 510 235 235 210 220 245 265 KY : 205 200 130 115 105 100 80 75 MI : 270 290 205 220 190 195 155 165 MN : 1,640 1,900 1,080 1,190 910 970 770 820 MO : 1,240 1,350 620 640 540 560 400 410 NE : 1,250 1,240 760 760 590 580 500 490 NC : 3,400 3,450 1,920 1,900 1,680 1,650 1,450 1,500 OH : 560 630 260 310 290 290 140 150 OK : 410 610 200 270 190 210 390 430 PA : 330 330 220 230 170 180 130 140 SD : 375 390 220 280 200 240 175 190 WI : 265 250 165 145 125 120 120 110 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,325 1,534 828 830 717 727 651 638 : US : 18,575 20,129 11,713 12,750 10,032 10,787 8,676 9,418 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, June 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : : 1997 : : 1997 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 115 105 660 795 120 770 910 118 GA : 110 110 100 760 720 95 870 830 95 IL : 580 560 97 4,120 3,940 96 4,700 4,500 96 IN : 460 440 96 3,390 3,210 95 3,850 3,650 95 IA : 1,300 1,340 103 11,500 11,360 99 12,800 12,700 99 KS : 180 180 100 1,140 1,200 105 1,320 1,380 105 KY : 85 75 88 565 525 93 650 600 92 MI : 140 150 107 960 950 99 1,100 1,100 100 MN : 550 610 111 4,200 4,590 109 4,750 5,200 109 MO : 560 455 81 2,940 3,095 105 3,500 3,550 101 NE : 450 450 100 3,350 3,250 97 3,800 3,700 97 NC : 950 1,050 111 7,950 8,750 110 8,900 9,800 110 OH : 210 210 100 1,290 1,390 108 1,500 1,600 107 OK : 160 210 131 990 1,290 130 1,150 1,500 130 PA : 110 115 105 910 875 96 1,020 990 97 SD : 140 165 118 1,060 1,025 97 1,200 1,190 99 WI : 115 115 100 705 695 99 820 810 99 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 650 610 94 3,800 3,642 96 4,450 4,252 96 : US : 6,860 6,960 101 50,290 51,302 102 57,150 58,262 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the the 33 other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, June 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 300 250 150 190 110 205 100 150 GA : 310 280 200 190 160 155 90 95 IL : 1,600 1,580 1,070 980 860 790 590 590 IN : 1,270 1,220 870 780 670 640 580 570 IA : 4,450 4,350 3,080 3,130 2,290 2,200 1,680 1,680 KS : 450 495 290 290 230 235 170 180 KY : 230 210 145 130 110 105 80 80 MI : 475 430 195 200 165 190 125 130 MN : 1,640 1,780 1,040 1,160 840 950 680 700 MO : 1,350 1,450 680 680 525 565 385 400 NE : 1,420 1,350 840 830 600 590 490 480 NC : 3,070 3,400 1,920 2,170 1,630 1,830 1,330 1,350 OH : 600 640 310 340 240 260 140 150 OK : 420 470 190 210 150 200 230 410 PA : 330 320 230 220 190 180 160 155 SD : 430 430 260 255 200 180 170 160 WI : 280 290 180 170 135 125 110 110 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,620 1,392 1,040 849 690 731 450 670 : US : 20,245 20,337 12,690 12,774 9,795 10,131 7,560 8,060 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, September 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : : 1997 : : 1997 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 115 105 725 805 111 835 920 110 GA : 115 105 91 755 715 95 870 820 94 IL : 560 530 95 4,140 4,120 100 4,700 4,650 99 IN : 450 450 100 3,350 3,450 103 3,800 3,900 103 IA : 1,250 1,350 108 11,750 12,950 110 13,000 14,300 110 KS : 185 190 103 1,365 1,240 91 1,550 1,430 92 KY : 85 75 88 550 525 95 635 600 94 MI : 125 140 112 1,005 1,010 100 1,130 1,150 102 MN : 560 620 111 4,340 4,880 112 4,900 5,500 112 MO : 515 435 84 2,985 3,115 104 3,500 3,550 101 NE : 450 450 100 3,250 3,200 98 3,700 3,650 99 NC : 980 1,050 107 8,320 9,050 109 9,300 10,100 109 OH : 220 200 91 1,330 1,350 102 1,550 1,550 100 OK : 160 215 134 1,070 1,385 129 1,230 1,600 130 PA : 105 120 114 895 900 101 1,000 1,020 102 SD : 130 160 123 1,010 1,060 105 1,140 1,220 107 WI : 115 120 104 695 710 102 810 830 102 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 650 622 96 3,850 3,748 97 4,500 4,370 97 : US : 6,765 6,947 103 51,385 54,213 106 58,150 61,160 105 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, September 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 270 270 175 195 145 195 135 145 GA : 300 280 185 180 150 155 120 100 IL : 1,450 1,490 1,020 980 890 860 780 790 IN : 1,190 1,230 870 870 730 740 560 610 IA : 3,750 4,400 3,350 3,750 2,550 2,650 2,100 2,150 KS : 575 540 285 240 275 230 230 230 KY : 225 215 145 130 100 100 80 80 MI : 325 350 290 275 210 205 180 180 MN : 1,700 1,990 1,060 1,230 840 920 740 740 MO : 1,320 1,440 640 670 590 520 435 485 NE : 1,350 1,340 790 780 660 650 450 430 NC : 3,280 3,600 1,910 2,140 1,730 1,870 1,400 1,440 OH : 560 610 320 330 250 250 200 160 OK : 440 500 190 250 185 230 255 405 PA : 325 370 220 220 190 165 160 145 SD : 375 430 260 260 210 200 165 170 WI : 275 290 170 175 135 135 115 110 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,610 1,531 900 853 750 759 590 605 : US : 19,320 20,876 12,780 13,528 10,590 10,834 8,695 8,975 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, December 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 1997 : : 1997 : : 1997 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of: 1996 : :as % of : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 110 100 715 740 103 825 850 103 GA : 110 105 95 690 645 93 800 750 94 IL : 520 560 108 3,880 4,240 109 4,400 4,800 109 IN : 460 460 100 3,290 3,440 105 3,750 3,900 104 IA : 1,250 1,350 108 10,950 13,150 120 12,200 14,500 119 KS : 190 190 100 1,260 1,240 98 1,450 1,430 99 KY : 85 70 82 540 520 96 625 590 94 MI : 125 130 104 875 900 103 1,000 1,030 103 MN : 540 620 115 4,310 4,880 113 4,850 5,500 113 MO : 450 440 98 3,000 3,110 104 3,450 3,550 103 NE : 450 440 98 3,150 3,110 99 3,600 3,550 99 NC : 1,000 1,050 105 8,300 8,750 105 9,300 9,800 105 OH : 210 200 95 1,290 1,420 110 1,500 1,620 108 OK : 170 230 135 1,150 1,410 123 1,320 1,640 124 PA : 105 120 114 845 880 104 950 1,000 105 SD : 155 160 103 1,045 1,140 109 1,200 1,300 108 WI : 120 105 88 680 625 92 800 730 91 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 617 648 105 3,504 3,727 106 4,121 4,375 106 : US : 6,667 6,988 105 49,474 53,927 109 56,141 60,915 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, December 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 255 290 170 165 150 155 140 130 GA : 250 245 195 175 145 135 100 90 IL : 1,380 1,630 960 980 840 880 700 750 IN : 1,150 1,150 840 890 725 780 575 620 IA : 3,850 4,300 2,900 3,600 2,300 2,800 1,900 2,450 KS : 510 530 280 250 250 250 220 210 KY : 215 215 135 125 105 105 85 75 MI : 285 320 200 200 210 205 180 175 MN : 1,590 1,910 1,070 1,210 890 970 760 790 MO : 1,280 1,360 670 650 550 610 500 490 NE : 1,200 1,200 830 830 650 640 470 440 NC : 3,250 3,400 1,950 2,070 1,750 1,870 1,350 1,410 OH : 570 640 300 320 280 300 140 160 OK : 420 480 220 260 210 200 300 470 PA : 290 340 220 230 175 170 160 140 SD : 375 410 280 310 210 240 180 180 WI : 270 260 175 150 130 110 105 105 : Oth : Sts 1/ : 1,299 1,424 826 845 721 759 657 699 : US : 18,439 20,104 12,221 13,260 10,291 11,179 8,522 9,384 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, December-February 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 1998 : per Litter : : 1998 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 1997 : :as % of : : : 1997 : :as % of : : Number : 1997 : 1997 : 1998 : : Number : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 52 56 108 8.50 8.50 442 476 108 GA : 40 36 90 8.05 8.35 322 301 93 IL : 200 215 108 8.50 8.60 1,700 1,849 109 IN : 180 190 106 8.50 8.50 1,530 1,615 106 IA : 460 510 111 8.50 8.70 3,910 4,437 113 KS : 80 88 110 9.10 9.00 728 792 109 KY : 31 31 100 8.30 8.40 257 260 101 MI : 40 40 100 8.40 8.80 336 352 105 MN : 230 255 111 8.70 8.90 2,001 2,270 113 MO : 180 190 106 8.60 8.80 1,548 1,672 108 NE : 175 165 94 8.45 8.50 1,479 1,403 95 NC : 500 515 103 8.90 8.90 4,450 4,584 103 OH : 75 87 116 8.30 8.40 623 731 117 OK : 78 117 150 9.50 8.90 741 1,041 140 PA : 44 44 100 8.50 8.45 374 372 99 SD : 60 58 97 8.50 8.60 510 499 98 WI : 44 42 95 8.40 8.20 370 344 93 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 233 259 111 8.34 8.36 1,943 2,166 111 : US : 2,702 2,898 107 8.61 8.68 23,264 25,164 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Number of pigs born December-February on hand March 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, March-May 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 1998 2/ : per Litter : : 1997 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1996 : 1997 : :as % of: : : 1996 : :as % of : : :Number : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- ----- 1,000 Head ---- : AR : 57 60 54 90 8.50 8.30 485 498 103 GA : 45 40 36 90 8.45 8.35 380 334 88 IL : 250 240 240 100 8.40 8.40 2,100 2,016 96 IN : 195 180 190 106 8.30 8.40 1,619 1,512 93 IA : 570 520 540 104 8.40 8.60 4,788 4,472 93 KS : 70 90 95 106 8.40 9.20 588 828 141 KY : 34 31 30 97 8.25 8.50 281 264 94 MI : 65 60 60 100 8.10 8.40 527 504 96 MN : 245 250 260 104 8.70 8.85 2,132 2,213 104 MO : 200 200 200 100 8.40 8.80 1,680 1,760 105 NE : 195 185 175 95 8.50 8.50 1,658 1,573 95 NC : 460 515 540 105 8.70 8.90 4,002 4,584 115 OH : 88 85 90 106 8.25 8.40 726 714 98 OK : 76 87 125 144 9.50 9.50 722 827 115 PA : 44 45 46 102 8.40 8.60 370 387 105 SD : 74 70 65 93 8.20 8.40 607 588 97 WI : 46 46 42 91 8.20 8.50 377 391 104 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 241 240 250 104 8.30 8.10 1,998 2,026 101 : US : 2,955 2,944 3,038 103 8.47 8.66 25,040 25,491 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 2/ Intentions. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, June-August 1996-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 1998 2/ : per Litter : : 1997 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1996 : 1997 : :as % of: : : 1996 : :as % of : : :Number : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : :Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 54 58 53 91 8.50 8.60 459 499 109 GA : 43 39 38 97 8.40 8.40 361 328 91 IL : 220 225 225 100 8.50 8.40 1,870 1,890 101 IN : 185 190 190 100 8.30 8.40 1,536 1,596 104 IA : 500 550 530 96 8.50 8.80 4,250 4,840 114 KS : 81 90 90 100 8.80 9.20 713 828 116 KY : 33 31 30 97 8.25 8.30 272 257 94 MI : 52 54 50 93 8.30 8.70 432 470 109 MN : 235 260 260 100 8.70 8.85 2,044 2,301 113 MO : 180 190 195 103 8.60 8.90 1,548 1,691 109 NE : 165 165 165 100 8.55 8.55 1,411 1,411 100 NC : 470 515 550 107 8.75 8.90 4,113 4,584 111 OH : 85 90 88 98 8.20 8.30 697 748 107 OK : 79 98 130 133 9.30 9.40 735 921 125 PA : 42 50 46 92 8.50 8.70 357 435 122 SD : 56 68 60 88 8.50 8.50 476 578 121 WI : 45 47 42 89 8.40 8.50 378 400 106 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 233 238 255 107 8.35 8.49 1,945 2,021 104 : US : 2,758 2,958 2,997 101 8.56 8.72 23,597 25,798 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born June-August on hand September 1, or had been sold. 2/ Intentions. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, September-November 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 1/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 1997 : per Litter : : 1997 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 1996 : :as % of : : : 1996 : :as % of : : Number : 1996 : 1996 : 1997 : : Number : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 52 55 106 8.40 8.40 437 462 106 GA : 35 35 100 8.30 8.35 291 292 100 IL : 220 240 109 8.35 8.40 1,837 2,016 110 IN : 180 190 106 8.35 8.50 1,503 1,615 107 IA : 480 510 106 8.45 8.50 4,056 4,335 107 KS : 85 90 106 9.00 9.30 765 837 109 KY : 32 31 97 8.30 8.35 266 259 97 MI : 45 48 107 8.30 8.70 374 418 112 MN : 225 260 116 8.80 8.90 1,980 2,314 117 MO : 185 195 105 8.40 8.70 1,554 1,696 109 NE : 170 170 100 8.40 8.50 1,428 1,445 101 NC : 475 510 107 8.75 8.85 4,156 4,514 109 OH : 80 90 113 8.30 8.60 664 774 117 OK : 78 99 127 9.50 9.30 741 921 124 PA : 41 46 112 8.40 8.70 344 400 116 SD : 65 70 108 8.25 8.60 536 602 112 WI : 44 44 100 8.10 8.30 356 365 103 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 225 245 109 8.32 8.33 1,871 2,042 109 : US : 2,717 2,928 108 8.52 8.64 23,159 25,307 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1 or had been sold. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Reliability of March 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of 13,705 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 11,732 operations, 85.6 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of March by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of March 1. Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In March, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 60.1 million head by more than 1.8 percent, or about 1,081,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 3.1 percent, or about 1,862,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of March 1 Hog Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Hogs & : 1.8 3.1 1,862 803 30 2,220 10 10 Pigs 2/ : : Pig Crop : 2.7 4.6 1,157 496 1 1,428 10 10 : Expected : Farrowings : : Next : 3.7 6.4 194 88 5 237 15 5 Quarter : : Following : 5.4 9.4 282 130 16 355 14 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on quarterly records for the past 20 quarters. 2/ No change was recorded in some quarters. Index Page Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, September-November, Quarterly States. . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, March-May, Quarterly States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, US. . . 5 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, December-February, Quarterly States . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pigs Per Litter, and Pig Crop, June-August, Quarterly States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Hogs and Pigs Inventory Number, by Quarter, US. . . . . . . . . . 4 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, September 1 . . . . . . .12 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, December 1. . . . . . . .14 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, June 1. . . . . . . . . .10 Inventory, Total and Breeding, Market Hogs, and Market Hogs, by Weight Groups, Quarterly States, March 1 . . . . . . . . . 8 Monthly Farrowings, Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs Per Litter, December-November, 1997-98, US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation, US . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Survey and Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 The next "Hogs and Pigs" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 26, 1998. 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