Mt An 4 (9-07) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 28, 2007, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Quarterly Hogs and Pigs" call Bruce Boess at 202-720-3106, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory up 3 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2007 was 64.6 million head. This was up 3 percent from both September 1, 2006, and June 1, 2007. Breeding inventory, at 6.14 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 58.5 million head, was up 3 percent from both last year and last quarter. The June-August 2007 pig crop, at 27.5 million head, was up 4 percent from each of the last two years. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, up 3 percent from 2006 and up 2 percent from 2005. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.19 for the June-August 2007 period, compared to 9.11 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow during the September-November 2007 quarter, up 1 percent from the actual farrowings in 2006, and up 2 percent from 2005. Intended farrowings for December 2007- February 2008, at 2.94 million sows, are up 1 percent from 2007, and up 4 percent from 2006. The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 40 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 39 percent last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2006 through June 2007 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of slightly larger than one-half of one percent were made to the March 1, 2007 inventory and December 2006 - February 2007 pig crop. An adjustment of less than one-half of one percent was made to the June 1, 2007 total inventory. This report was approved on September 28, 2007. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Charles F. Conner Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Quarterly U.S. Inventory by Class and Weight Group, 2005-2007..................1 Quarterly U.S. Sows Farrowed, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, 2005-2008.........2 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by State and U.S., 2005-2007 March 1................................................................5 June 1.................................................................7 September 1............................................................9 December 1............................................................11 Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, Pig Crop by State and U.S., 2005-2008 December-February.....................................................13 March-May.............................................................14 June-August...........................................................15 September-November....................................................16 Monthly U.S. Farrowings, December-November 2006-2007..........................17 Reliability Statement.........................................................18 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United States, 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :2007 as % of Item : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 :------------- : : : : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent : March 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 59,699 60,326 61,859 104 103 Kept for Breeding : 5,941 6,025 6,081 102 101 Market : 53,757 54,301 55,778 104 103 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 19,667 19,988 20,381 104 102 60-119 Pounds : 13,087 13,006 13,366 102 103 120-179 Pounds : 11,360 11,434 11,693 103 102 180 Pounds and Over : 9,644 9,874 10,338 107 105 : June 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 60,732 61,687 62,900 104 102 Kept for Breeding : 5,977 6,060 6,116 102 101 Market : 54,754 55,627 56,784 104 102 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,423 20,808 21,182 104 102 60-119 Pounds : 13,376 13,692 13,894 104 101 120-179 Pounds : 11,143 11,485 11,789 106 103 180 Pounds and Over : 9,813 9,643 9,919 101 103 : September 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 61,846 62,914 64,648 105 103 Kept for Breeding : 5,972 6,079 6,145 103 101 Market : 55,873 56,835 58,503 105 103 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,764 20,708 21,318 103 103 60-119 Pounds : 13,876 14,231 14,614 105 103 120-179 Pounds : 11,404 11,685 12,015 105 103 180 Pounds and Over : 9,830 10,212 10,556 107 103 : December 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 61,449 62,489 Kept for Breeding : 6,011 6,088 Market : 55,438 56,401 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,055 20,462 60-119 Pounds : 13,524 13,928 120-179 Pounds : 11,293 11,274 180 Pounds and Over : 10,567 10,737 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, United States, 2005-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : 2007 as % of : 2008 Item : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 :---------------:as % of : : : : : 2005 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ----- Percent ----- : Sows Farrowing : Dec-Feb 2/ 3/ : 2,835 2,840 2,905 2,943 102 102 101 Mar-May : 2,882 2,927 2,966 103 101 Dec-May 2/ : 5,716 5,767 5,871 103 102 : Jun-Aug : 2,918 2,912 2,986 102 103 Sep-Nov 4/ : 2,900 2,949 2,964 102 101 Jun-Nov 5/ : 5,818 5,862 5,951 102 102 : Pig Crop : Dec-Feb 2/ : 25,343 25,661 26,393 104 103 Mar-May : 25,986 26,579 27,141 104 102 Dec-May 2/ : 51,330 52,240 53,534 104 102 : Jun-Aug : 26,449 26,518 27,452 104 104 Sep-Nov : 26,187 26,857 Jun-Nov : 52,635 53,375 : : ------------- Number ------------- ----- Percent ----- Pigs per Litter : Dec-Feb 2/ : 8.94 9.03 9.09 102 101 Mar-May : 9.02 9.08 9.15 101 101 Dec-May 2/ : 8.98 9.06 9.12 102 101 : Jun-Aug : 9.06 9.11 9.19 101 101 Sep-Nov : 9.03 9.11 Jun-Nov : 9.05 9.11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Intentions for 2008. 4/ Intentions for 2007. 5/ Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November. Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United States, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Pigs per Litter on Operations Having :----------------------------------------------------------------- Pig Crop : 1-99 : 100-499 : 500-999 :1,000-1,999:2,000-4,999: 5,000+ : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2006 : Dec-Feb 2/ : 7.50 8.00 8.30 8.80 9.00 9.10 Mar-May : 7.60 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.00 9.20 Jun-Aug : 7.70 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.10 9.20 Sep-Nov : 7.70 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.10 9.20 : 2007 : Dec-Feb 2/ : 7.60 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.00 9.20 Mar-May : 7.60 8.00 8.40 8.90 9.10 9.20 Jun-Aug : 7.50 8.10 8.50 8.90 9.10 9.30 Sep-Nov : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2/ December preceding year. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, March 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : : 2007 : : 2007 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 85 100 185 190 103 270 275 102 CO : 150 150 100 680 670 99 830 820 99 IL : 420 440 105 3,730 3,660 98 4,150 4,100 99 IN : 310 320 103 2,790 2,930 105 3,100 3,250 105 IA : 1,100 1,080 98 15,300 15,820 103 16,400 16,900 103 KS : 165 165 100 1,565 1,685 108 1,730 1,850 107 MI : 100 110 110 860 880 102 960 990 103 MN : 580 600 103 5,820 6,300 108 6,400 6,900 108 MO : 345 360 104 2,355 2,490 106 2,700 2,850 106 NE : 355 360 101 2,545 2,740 108 2,900 3,100 107 NC : 1,020 1,020 100 8,480 8,380 99 9,500 9,400 99 OH : 160 165 103 1,380 1,545 112 1,540 1,710 111 OK : 360 360 100 1,970 1,990 101 2,330 2,350 101 PA : 100 100 100 1,010 1,010 100 1,110 1,110 100 SD : 155 135 87 1,285 1,145 89 1,440 1,280 89 TX : 100 100 100 830 870 105 930 970 104 WI : 50 55 110 370 385 104 420 440 105 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 470 476 101 3,146 3,088 98 3,616 3,564 99 : US : 6,025 6,081 101 54,301 55,778 103 60,326 61,859 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, March 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 140 140 15 20 15 15 15 15 CO : 360 375 90 100 80 75 150 120 IL : 1,310 1,310 870 890 840 790 710 670 IN : 1,030 1,070 700 730 560 580 500 550 IA : 4,680 4,650 4,140 4,220 3,520 3,780 2,960 3,170 KS : 530 575 285 310 345 335 405 465 MI : 315 305 200 210 175 180 170 185 MN : 2,280 2,400 1,330 1,540 1,310 1,330 900 1,030 MO : 1,085 1,160 490 485 460 500 320 345 NE : 1,000 1,050 660 730 490 530 395 430 NC : 3,400 3,430 1,940 1,850 1,690 1,680 1,450 1,420 OH : 570 605 315 380 305 320 190 240 OK : 910 940 350 310 220 220 490 520 PA : 370 300 270 295 210 225 160 190 SD : 455 415 300 260 275 245 255 225 TX : 265 315 190 205 195 185 180 165 WI : 145 155 90 90 70 70 65 70 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,143 1,186 771 741 674 633 559 528 : US : 19,988 20,381 13,006 13,366 11,434 11,693 9,874 10,338 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, June 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : : 2007 : : 2007 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 85 100 195 195 100 280 280 100 CO : 150 150 100 690 680 99 840 830 99 IL : 430 440 102 3,770 3,460 92 4,200 3,900 93 IN : 320 310 97 2,880 2,990 104 3,200 3,300 103 IA : 1,080 1,080 100 15,520 16,720 108 16,600 17,800 107 KS : 160 165 103 1,680 1,725 103 1,840 1,890 103 MI : 100 110 110 880 910 103 980 1,020 104 MN : 590 610 103 6,210 6,290 101 6,800 6,900 101 MO : 350 370 106 2,350 2,630 112 2,700 3,000 111 NE : 365 360 99 2,635 2,740 104 3,000 3,100 103 NC : 1,020 1,020 100 8,580 8,480 99 9,600 9,500 99 OH : 165 165 100 1,455 1,485 102 1,620 1,650 102 OK : 360 360 100 2,010 1,950 97 2,370 2,310 97 PA : 100 100 100 1,000 1,010 101 1,100 1,110 101 SD : 160 145 91 1,260 1,135 90 1,420 1,280 90 TX : 105 110 105 865 880 102 970 990 102 WI : 55 50 91 375 360 96 430 410 95 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 465 486 105 3,272 3,144 96 3,737 3,630 97 : US : 6,060 6,116 101 55,627 56,784 102 61,687 62,900 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, June 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 140 140 20 20 15 15 20 20 CO : 360 370 85 95 95 85 150 130 IL : 1,350 1,270 940 860 840 760 640 570 IN : 1,080 1,090 760 760 550 590 490 550 IA : 4,860 5,190 4,240 4,630 3,530 3,850 2,890 3,050 KS : 585 615 360 335 310 335 425 440 MI : 335 320 195 215 175 195 175 180 MN : 2,460 2,530 1,550 1,560 1,310 1,300 890 900 MO : 1,135 1,270 490 530 420 505 305 325 NE : 1,000 1,010 700 710 550 580 385 440 NC : 3,540 3,500 1,960 1,900 1,690 1,670 1,390 1,410 OH : 590 590 360 365 320 315 185 215 OK : 930 930 330 315 270 230 480 475 PA : 330 290 290 305 215 225 165 190 SD : 475 425 290 260 255 240 240 210 TX : 275 275 220 215 205 200 165 190 WI : 145 155 105 85 70 65 55 55 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,218 1,212 797 734 665 629 593 569 : US : 20,808 21,182 13,692 13,894 11,485 11,789 9,643 9,919 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, September 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : : 2007 : : 2007 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 85 100 195 195 100 280 280 100 CO : 155 150 97 695 700 101 850 850 100 IL : 440 450 102 3,910 3,550 91 4,350 4,000 92 IN : 330 310 94 2,970 3,090 104 3,300 3,400 103 IA : 1,080 1,070 99 15,920 16,730 105 17,000 17,800 105 KS : 165 170 103 1,755 1,770 101 1,920 1,940 101 MI : 100 100 100 880 960 109 980 1,060 108 MN : 590 610 103 6,310 6,390 101 6,900 7,000 101 MO : 355 380 107 2,395 2,670 111 2,750 3,050 111 NE : 350 365 104 2,700 2,835 105 3,050 3,200 105 NC : 1,010 1,030 102 8,690 9,070 104 9,700 10,100 104 OH : 170 170 100 1,500 1,530 102 1,670 1,700 102 OK : 360 360 100 2,030 2,050 101 2,390 2,410 101 PA : 105 100 95 1,055 1,040 99 1,160 1,140 98 SD : 155 155 100 1,285 1,175 91 1,440 1,330 92 TX : 100 100 100 890 980 110 990 1,080 109 WI : 55 50 91 375 360 96 430 410 95 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 474 490 103 3,280 3,408 104 3,754 3,898 104 : US : 6,079 6,145 101 56,835 58,503 103 62,914 64,648 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, September 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 140 140 20 20 15 15 20 20 CO : 380 365 90 130 85 65 140 140 IL : 1,360 1,310 990 890 850 740 710 610 IN : 1,080 1,070 770 820 580 620 540 580 IA : 4,750 5,140 4,500 4,660 3,600 3,830 3,070 3,100 KS : 590 550 395 370 305 365 465 485 MI : 300 335 220 230 180 215 180 180 MN : 2,440 2,560 1,610 1,580 1,300 1,260 960 990 MO : 1,115 1,250 480 530 470 510 330 380 NE : 1,000 1,050 710 770 560 580 430 435 NC : 3,530 3,550 2,040 2,210 1,710 1,760 1,410 1,550 OH : 600 605 380 375 320 330 200 220 OK : 950 960 330 320 260 250 490 520 PA : 330 320 305 305 235 235 185 180 SD : 480 400 300 280 265 260 240 235 TX : 315 340 200 215 190 200 185 225 WI : 145 140 90 105 75 60 65 55 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,203 1,233 801 804 685 720 592 651 : US : 20,708 21,318 14,231 14,614 11,685 12,015 10,212 10,556 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, December 1, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2006 : : 2006 : : 2006 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2005 : :as % of: 2005 : :as % of: 2005 : :as % of : :Number : 2005 : :Number : 2005 : :Number : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 85 100 185 175 95 270 260 96 CO : 145 155 107 705 685 97 850 840 99 IL : 430 440 102 3,570 3,760 105 4,000 4,200 105 IN : 310 330 106 2,940 3,020 103 3,250 3,350 103 IA : 1,070 1,080 101 15,530 16,220 104 16,600 17,300 104 KS : 160 170 106 1,630 1,670 102 1,790 1,840 103 MI : 100 110 110 860 890 103 960 1,000 104 MN : 590 590 100 6,010 6,310 105 6,600 6,900 105 MO : 345 360 104 2,355 2,440 104 2,700 2,800 104 NE : 350 365 104 2,500 2,685 107 2,850 3,050 107 NC : 1,010 1,010 100 8,790 8,490 97 9,800 9,500 97 OH : 165 170 103 1,395 1,520 109 1,560 1,690 108 OK : 360 350 97 2,010 1,980 99 2,370 2,330 98 PA : 100 105 105 1,000 975 98 1,100 1,080 98 SD : 165 140 85 1,325 1,130 85 1,490 1,270 85 TX : 100 95 95 830 845 102 930 940 101 WI : 55 55 100 375 395 105 430 450 105 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 471 478 101 3,428 3,211 94 3,899 3,689 95 : US : 6,011 6,088 101 55,438 56,401 102 61,449 62,489 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, December 1, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 130 125 20 15 15 15 20 20 CO : 390 380 95 80 85 85 135 140 IL : 1,300 1,270 860 970 740 800 670 720 IN : 1,060 1,120 730 760 560 580 590 560 IA : 4,610 4,910 4,180 4,470 3,520 3,540 3,220 3,300 KS : 570 560 315 320 315 310 430 480 MI : 315 300 205 230 175 170 165 190 MN : 2,320 2,420 1,460 1,540 1,200 1,250 1,030 1,100 MO : 1,105 1,130 480 490 450 475 320 345 NE : 980 1,010 660 720 470 530 390 425 NC : 3,450 3,390 2,130 1,970 1,720 1,680 1,490 1,450 OH : 550 590 330 370 295 305 220 255 OK : 920 900 320 340 240 240 530 500 PA : 310 300 280 300 215 185 195 190 SD : 450 415 325 260 290 220 260 235 TX : 270 280 195 200 180 185 185 180 WI : 150 155 85 100 75 70 65 70 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,175 1,207 854 793 748 634 652 577 : US : 20,055 20,462 13,524 13,928 11,293 11,274 10,567 10,737 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, December-February 2006-2008 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 3/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2008 4/ : Per Litter : : 2007 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 2006 : 2007 : :as % of: : : 2006 : :as % of : : :Number : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 41 39 39 100 9.50 9.45 390 369 95 CO : 81 83 84 101 8.80 8.80 713 730 102 IL : 195 210 225 107 9.00 9.05 1,755 1,901 108 IN : 130 140 140 100 8.90 8.80 1,157 1,232 106 IA : 455 455 445 98 9.00 9.00 4,095 4,095 100 KS : 84 88 91 103 8.85 8.90 743 783 105 MI : 48 49 54 110 9.30 8.75 446 429 96 MN : 270 275 285 104 9.10 9.25 2,457 2,544 104 MO : 165 180 180 100 9.00 9.05 1,485 1,629 110 NE : 175 180 185 103 9.15 9.20 1,601 1,656 103 NC : 540 540 540 100 9.10 9.10 4,914 4,914 100 OH : 77 84 82 98 9.10 9.15 701 769 110 OK : 185 190 180 95 8.70 9.20 1,610 1,748 109 PA : 47 44 44 100 9.90 9.00 465 396 85 SD : 77 67 78 116 9.40 9.50 724 637 88 TX : 42 45 51 113 8.60 8.90 361 401 111 WI : 26 27 25 93 8.55 8.95 222 242 109 : Oth : Sts 5/ : 202 209 215 103 9.00 9.18 1,822 1,918 105 : US : 2,840 2,905 2,943 101 9.03 9.09 25,661 26,393 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ May not add due to rounding. 3/ Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 4/ Intentions. 5/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, March-May 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2007 : per Litter : : 2007 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 2006 : :as % of : : : 2006 : :as % of : : Number : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 : : Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 41 41 100 9.60 9.70 394 398 101 CO : 81 79 98 8.90 8.85 721 699 97 IL : 210 225 107 9.05 9.00 1,901 2,025 107 IN : 135 140 104 8.90 8.90 1,202 1,246 104 IA : 465 460 99 8.95 9.20 4,162 4,232 102 KS : 84 87 104 9.10 8.90 764 774 101 MI : 47 52 111 9.20 8.95 432 465 108 MN : 280 285 102 9.30 9.30 2,604 2,651 102 MO : 170 190 112 9.10 9.10 1,547 1,729 112 NE : 180 180 100 9.15 9.25 1,647 1,665 101 NC : 550 550 100 9.10 9.05 5,005 4,978 99 OH : 82 82 100 9.00 9.30 738 763 103 OK : 185 195 105 8.90 9.30 1,647 1,814 110 PA : 47 44 94 9.10 9.00 428 396 93 SD : 84 70 83 9.35 9.50 785 665 85 TX : 47 46 98 9.25 9.20 435 423 97 WI : 27 25 93 8.70 8.80 235 220 94 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 212 215 102 9.11 9.28 1,932 1,998 103 : US : 2,927 2,966 101 9.08 9.15 26,579 27,141 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, June-August 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2007 : per Litter : : 2007 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 2006 : :as % of : : : 2006 : :as % of : : Number : 2006 : 2006 : 2007 : : Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 40 43 108 9.70 9.60 388 413 106 CO : 82 79 96 9.00 9.00 738 711 96 IL : 200 230 115 9.05 9.00 1,810 2,070 114 IN : 140 145 104 8.95 9.00 1,253 1,305 104 IA : 455 450 99 9.05 9.25 4,118 4,163 101 KS : 85 89 105 8.75 8.90 744 792 106 MI : 48 53 110 9.15 9.10 439 482 110 MN : 280 285 102 9.25 9.35 2,590 2,665 103 MO : 170 190 112 9.05 9.15 1,539 1,739 113 NE : 175 185 106 9.15 9.30 1,601 1,721 107 NC : 560 550 98 9.10 9.05 5,096 4,978 98 OH : 84 82 98 9.15 9.30 769 763 99 OK : 190 190 100 9.00 9.30 1,710 1,767 103 PA : 45 44 98 8.80 9.50 396 418 106 SD : 77 78 101 9.40 9.50 724 741 102 TX : 48 52 108 9.60 8.70 461 452 98 WI : 26 25 96 8.80 8.85 229 221 97 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 207 216 104 9.24 9.48 1,913 2,051 107 : US : 2,912 2,986 103 9.11 9.19 26,518 27,452 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, September-November 2005-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2007 3/ : Per Litter : : 2006 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 2005 : 2006 : :as % of: : : 2005 : :as % of : : :Number : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : :Number : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 42 38 42 111 9.70 9.75 407 371 91 CO : 81 84 84 100 8.80 8.80 713 739 104 IL : 200 215 235 109 8.85 9.10 1,770 1,957 111 IN : 135 140 140 100 9.00 8.90 1,215 1,246 103 IA : 455 480 450 94 9.00 9.05 4,095 4,344 106 KS : 84 87 93 107 8.70 8.85 731 770 105 MI : 47 50 53 106 9.20 8.95 432 448 104 MN : 280 280 285 102 9.25 9.30 2,590 2,604 101 MO : 175 175 185 106 8.95 9.00 1,566 1,575 101 NE : 175 185 180 97 9.05 9.25 1,584 1,711 108 NC : 550 550 540 98 9.00 9.15 4,950 5,033 102 OH : 81 83 80 96 9.10 9.20 737 764 104 OK : 190 185 180 97 8.90 9.00 1,691 1,665 98 PA : 47 43 46 107 9.80 9.00 461 387 84 SD : 81 71 80 113 9.30 9.45 753 671 89 TX : 44 45 49 109 8.90 8.95 392 403 103 WI : 27 29 24 83 8.65 8.90 234 258 110 : Oth : Sts 4/ : 206 209 218 104 9.04 9.13 1,866 1,911 102 : US : 2,900 2,949 2,964 101 9.03 9.11 26,187 26,857 103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold. 3/ Intentions. 4/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Monthly Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop, United States, December-November 2006-2007 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : Pigs per Litter : Pig Crop Month :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head -- ---- Number ---- --- 1,000 Head --- : Dec 1/ : 937 961 8.98 9.07 8,411 8,712 Jan : 952 972 9.08 9.10 8,646 8,844 Feb : 951 972 9.05 9.09 8,605 8,837 Mar : 984 997 9.04 9.12 8,898 9,094 Apr : 969 985 9.07 9.18 8,788 9,038 May : 974 984 9.13 9.16 8,893 9,009 Jun : 973 998 9.10 9.20 8,856 9,186 Jul : 965 992 9.10 9.21 8,780 9,137 Aug : 974 996 9.12 9.17 8,882 9,129 Sep : 1,002 9.10 9,123 Oct : 985 9.12 8,982 Nov : 962 9.10 8,752 : Total : 11,629 9.08 105,615 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 9,300 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September, data were collected from about 7,350 operations, 79 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1. Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year census of agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all hog raising operations are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 64.6 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.5 percent. Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent --------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Hogs & : 0.9 1.5 970 430 76 1,386 2 18 Pigs : : Pig Crop : 1.2 2.1 576 242 0 824 2 17 : Expected : Farrowings : : Next : Quarter : 1.3 2.2 65 31 3 91 5 15 : Following : Quarter : 1.7 2.9 85 39 3 126 6 14 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on quarterly records for the past 20 quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch......................................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Shawn Clark, Head, Livestock Section.......................................(202) 720-3570 Bruce Boess - Hogs and Pigs........................................(202) 720-3106 Vacant - Dairy Products............................................(202) 690-3236 Jason Hardegree - Milk Production and Milk Cows....................(202) 720-3278 Scott Hollis - Sheep & Lambs, Goats................................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...............................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.................................(515) 284-4340 Charmaine Wilson - Dairy Products Prices...........................(202) 690-2168 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 29, 2007 Crowne Plaza Chicago O'Hare Rosemont, Illinois (847) 671-6350 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov.