Mt An 4 (9-08) Quarterly Hogs and Pigs National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 26, 2008, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Quarterly Hogs and Pigs" call Nick Streff at 202-720-3106, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. U.S. Hog Inventory up 2 Percent U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2008 was 68.7 million head. This was up 2 percent from September 1, 2007 and up 1 percent from June 1, 2008. Breeding inventory, at 6.05 million head, was down 3 percent from last year and down 1 percent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 62.6 million head, was up 3 percent from last year and up 2 percent from last quarter. The June-August 2008 pig crop, at 29.3 million head, was up 1 percent from 2007 and up 10 percent from 2006. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.08 million head, down 2 percent from 2007 but up 6 percent from 2006. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 51 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.51 for the June-August 2008 period, compared to 9.29 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.80 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.60 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs. U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.01 million sows farrow during the September-November 2008 quarter, down 5 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2007, but up 2 percent from 2006. Intended farrowings for December 2008-February 2009, at 2.98 million sows, are down 3 percent from 2008 but up 3 percent from 2007. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 43 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 40 percent last year. Revisions All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2007 through June 2008 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, adjustments of less than one half of one percent were made to the June 2008, March 2008, December 2007 and September 2007 total inventory and December 2007-February 2008 pig crop. This report was approved on September 26, 2008. Acting Secretary of Agriculture Bruce Knight Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Carol C. House Contents Page Quarterly U.S. Inventory by Class and Weight Group, 2006-2008..............1 Quarterly U.S. Sows Farrowed, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, 2006-2009.....2 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory by State and U.S., 2006-2008 March 1............................................................5 June 1.............................................................7 September 1........................................................9 December 1........................................................11 Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, Pig Crop by State and U.S., 2006-2009 December-February.................................................13 March-May.........................................................14 June-August.......................................................15 September-November................................................16 Monthly U.S. Farrowings, December-November 2007-2008......................17 Reliability Statement.....................................................18 Information Contacts......................................................19 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group, and Quarter, United States, 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : :2008 as % of Item : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 :------------- : : : : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent : March 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 60,326 61,860 67,219 111 109 Kept for Breeding : 6,025 6,110 6,188 103 101 Market : 54,301 55,749 61,030 112 109 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 19,988 20,381 22,147 111 109 60-119 Pounds : 13,006 13,356 14,491 111 108 120-179 Pounds : 11,434 11,679 13,193 115 113 180 Pounds and Over : 9,874 10,334 11,200 113 108 : June 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 61,687 63,951 67,711 110 106 Kept for Breeding : 6,060 6,120 6,119 101 100 Market : 55,627 57,830 61,591 111 107 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,808 21,782 22,587 109 104 60-119 Pounds : 13,692 14,339 15,242 111 106 120-179 Pounds : 11,485 11,790 12,902 112 109 180 Pounds and Over : 9,643 9,920 10,861 113 109 : September 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 62,914 67,279 68,657 109 102 Kept for Breeding : 6,079 6,209 6,049 100 97 Market : 56,835 61,069 62,607 110 103 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,708 22,650 22,573 109 100 60-119 Pounds : 14,231 15,262 15,428 108 101 120-179 Pounds : 11,685 12,531 13,295 114 106 180 Pounds and Over : 10,212 10,627 11,312 111 106 : December 1 Inventory : All Hogs and Pigs : 62,490 68,173 Kept for Breeding : 6,087 6,221 Market : 56,402 61,951 : Market Hogs and Pigs : by Weight Groups : Under 60 Pounds : 20,462 22,552 60-119 Pounds : 13,928 15,174 120-179 Pounds : 11,275 12,657 180 Pounds and Over : 10,738 11,569 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop, and Pigs per Litter, United States, 2006-2009 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : 2008 as % of : 2009 Item : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009 :---------------:as % of : : : : : 2006 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ ----- Percent ---- : Sows Farrowing : Dec-Feb 2/ 3/ : 2,841 2,905 3,071 2,983 108 106 97 Mar-May : 2,927 3,033 3,092 106 102 Dec-May 2/ : 5,768 5,938 6,163 107 104 : Jun-Aug : 2,912 3,132 3,076 106 98 Sep-Nov 4/ : 2,949 3,180 3,006 102 95 Jun-Nov 5/ : 5,862 6,312 6,082 104 96 : Pig Crop : Dec-Feb 2/ : 25,662 26,396 28,388 111 108 Mar-May : 26,580 27,896 29,000 109 104 Dec-May 2/ : 52,242 54,293 57,388 110 106 : Jun-Aug : 26,519 29,094 29,251 110 101 Sep-Nov : 26,857 29,511 Jun-Nov : 53,376 58,606 : : ------------- Number ------------- ----- Percent ---- Pigs per Litter : Dec-Feb 2/ : 9.03 9.09 9.24 102 102 Mar-May : 9.08 9.20 9.38 103 102 Dec-May 2/ : 9.06 9.14 9.31 103 102 : Jun-Aug : 9.11 9.29 9.51 104 102 Sep-Nov : 9.11 9.28 Jun-Nov : 9.11 9.28 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Intentions for 2009. 4/ Intentions for 2008. 5/ Actual farrowings for June-August plus intentions for September-November. Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United States, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Pigs per Litter on Operations Having :----------------------------------------------------------------- Pig Crop : 1-99 : 100-499 : 500-999 :1,000-1,999:2,000-4,999: 5,000+ : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Number : 2007 : Dec-Feb 2/ : 7.60 8.00 8.40 8.80 9.00 9.20 Mar-May : 7.60 8.00 8.40 8.90 9.10 9.30 Jun-Aug : 7.60 8.20 8.60 9.00 9.20 9.40 Sep-Nov : 7.50 8.20 8.60 9.00 9.30 9.40 : 2008 : Dec-Feb 2/ : 7.50 8.20 8.40 8.80 9.20 9.30 Mar-May : 7.70 8.20 8.40 9.00 9.40 9.40 Jun-Aug : 7.80 8.30 8.40 9.00 9.50 9.60 Sep-Nov : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Pigs per litter rounded to the nearest tenth. 2/ December preceding year. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, March 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : : 2008 : : 2008 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 90 106 190 210 111 275 300 109 CO : 150 155 103 670 625 93 820 780 95 IL : 440 450 102 3,660 4,000 109 4,100 4,450 109 IN : 320 320 100 2,930 3,330 114 3,250 3,650 112 IA : 1,090 1,090 100 15,810 18,010 114 16,900 19,100 113 KS : 165 170 103 1,685 1,710 101 1,850 1,880 102 MI : 110 100 91 880 890 101 990 990 100 MN : 600 590 98 6,300 6,910 110 6,900 7,500 109 MO : 365 380 104 2,485 2,720 109 2,850 3,100 109 NE : 360 360 100 2,740 2,940 107 3,100 3,300 106 NC : 1,030 1,020 99 8,370 9,080 108 9,400 10,100 107 OH : 165 170 103 1,545 1,690 109 1,710 1,860 109 OK : 360 400 111 1,990 1,950 98 2,350 2,350 100 PA : 100 100 100 1,010 1,050 104 1,110 1,150 104 SD : 140 160 114 1,140 1,310 115 1,280 1,470 115 TX : 100 115 115 870 975 112 970 1,090 112 WI : 55 45 82 385 365 95 440 410 93 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 475 473 100 3,089 3,265 106 3,565 3,739 105 : US : 6,110 6,188 101 55,749 61,030 109 61,860 67,219 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, March 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 140 160 20 15 15 10 15 25 CO : 375 320 100 85 75 80 120 140 IL : 1,310 1,440 890 940 790 900 670 720 IN : 1,070 1,200 730 830 580 680 550 620 IA : 4,650 5,450 4,210 4,680 3,780 4,430 3,170 3,450 KS : 575 575 310 370 335 295 465 470 MI : 305 320 210 220 180 175 185 175 MN : 2,400 2,690 1,540 1,650 1,330 1,460 1,030 1,110 MO : 1,160 1,255 485 510 500 530 340 425 NE : 1,050 1,080 730 760 530 670 430 430 NC : 3,430 3,580 1,850 2,090 1,670 1,890 1,420 1,520 OH : 605 635 380 415 320 390 240 250 OK : 940 960 310 300 220 220 520 470 PA : 300 320 295 300 225 230 190 200 SD : 415 480 260 285 240 280 225 265 TX : 315 330 205 190 185 210 165 245 WI : 155 150 90 85 70 60 70 70 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,186 1,202 741 766 634 683 529 615 : US : 20,381 22,147 13,356 14,491 11,679 13,193 10,334 11,200 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, June 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : : 2008 : : 2008 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 95 112 205 215 105 290 310 107 CO : 150 150 100 690 620 90 840 770 92 IL : 440 440 100 3,560 3,910 110 4,000 4,350 109 IN : 310 300 97 3,040 3,400 112 3,350 3,700 110 IA : 1,080 1,090 101 17,120 18,310 107 18,200 19,400 107 KS : 165 170 103 1,735 1,630 94 1,900 1,800 95 MI : 110 100 91 920 940 102 1,030 1,040 101 MN : 610 580 95 6,390 7,020 110 7,000 7,600 109 MO : 375 375 100 2,675 2,775 104 3,050 3,150 103 NE : 360 360 100 2,790 3,040 109 3,150 3,400 108 NC : 1,020 1,020 100 8,680 9,080 105 9,700 10,100 104 OH : 165 165 100 1,505 1,745 116 1,670 1,910 114 OK : 360 400 111 1,960 1,960 100 2,320 2,360 102 PA : 100 95 95 1,020 1,095 107 1,120 1,190 106 SD : 145 150 103 1,145 1,300 114 1,290 1,450 112 TX : 110 110 100 890 970 109 1,000 1,080 108 WI : 50 45 90 360 355 99 410 400 98 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 485 474 98 3,145 3,226 103 3,631 3,701 102 : US : 6,120 6,119 100 57,830 61,591 107 63,951 67,711 106 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, June 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 150 160 20 20 15 15 20 20 CO : 375 320 100 115 85 70 130 115 IL : 1,310 1,420 920 990 760 850 570 650 IN : 1,120 1,220 780 900 590 670 550 610 IA : 5,450 5,500 4,770 4,980 3,850 4,450 3,050 3,380 KS : 620 550 340 330 335 270 440 480 MI : 330 335 215 230 195 185 180 190 MN : 2,570 2,760 1,620 1,760 1,300 1,470 900 1,030 MO : 1,300 1,350 545 545 505 475 325 405 NE : 1,040 1,130 730 810 580 650 440 450 NC : 3,600 3,700 2,000 2,150 1,670 1,760 1,410 1,470 OH : 600 650 375 435 315 400 215 260 OK : 940 990 315 300 230 220 475 450 PA : 300 335 305 315 225 235 190 210 SD : 425 485 270 305 240 270 210 240 TX : 285 325 215 225 200 200 190 220 WI : 155 140 85 90 65 60 55 65 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,212 1,217 734 742 630 652 570 616 : US : 21,782 22,587 14,339 15,242 11,790 12,902 9,920 10,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, September 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2008 : : 2008 : : 2008 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of: 2007 : :as % of : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 : :Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 95 112 205 220 107 290 315 109 CO : 160 145 91 700 605 86 860 750 87 IL : 450 450 100 3,750 3,950 105 4,200 4,400 105 IN : 310 300 97 3,190 3,400 107 3,500 3,700 106 IA : 1,070 1,070 100 17,830 18,730 105 18,900 19,800 105 KS : 180 170 94 1,790 1,660 93 1,970 1,830 93 MI : 100 100 100 990 960 97 1,090 1,060 97 MN : 610 570 93 6,690 7,130 107 7,300 7,700 105 MO : 385 365 95 2,765 2,835 103 3,150 3,200 102 NE : 365 355 97 2,985 2,995 100 3,350 3,350 100 NC : 1,030 1,000 97 9,370 9,300 99 10,400 10,300 99 OH : 170 170 100 1,600 1,770 111 1,770 1,940 110 OK : 400 400 100 2,050 2,060 100 2,450 2,460 100 PA : 100 85 85 1,090 1,055 97 1,190 1,140 96 SD : 155 150 97 1,225 1,290 105 1,380 1,440 104 TX : 100 110 110 1,020 1,030 101 1,120 1,140 102 WI : 50 45 90 370 345 93 420 390 93 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 489 469 96 3,449 3,272 95 3,939 3,742 95 : US : 6,209 6,049 97 61,069 62,607 103 67,279 68,657 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, September 1, 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 150 170 20 20 15 15 20 15 CO : 365 310 120 100 75 75 140 120 IL : 1,400 1,410 930 1,020 800 860 620 660 IN : 1,120 1,190 830 900 640 670 600 640 IA : 5,790 5,550 4,910 5,140 4,030 4,550 3,100 3,490 KS : 550 560 380 310 375 295 485 495 MI : 335 360 235 235 235 190 185 175 MN : 2,680 2,790 1,710 1,830 1,300 1,490 1,000 1,020 MO : 1,300 1,360 545 565 530 535 390 375 NE : 1,150 1,080 810 800 590 660 435 455 NC : 3,700 3,700 2,310 2,050 1,810 1,860 1,550 1,690 OH : 635 655 385 455 355 410 225 250 OK : 950 980 340 320 250 240 510 520 PA : 350 320 310 305 240 230 190 200 SD : 425 470 290 300 270 275 240 245 TX : 355 330 215 250 220 215 230 235 WI : 150 135 105 90 60 55 55 65 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,245 1,203 817 738 736 670 652 662 : US : 22,650 22,573 15,262 15,428 12,531 13,295 10,627 11,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, December 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2007 : : 2007 : : 2007 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of: 2006 : :as % of : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 85 85 100 175 205 117 260 290 112 CO : 155 160 103 685 700 102 840 860 102 IL : 440 440 100 3,760 3,910 104 4,200 4,350 104 IN : 330 330 100 3,020 3,370 112 3,350 3,700 110 IA : 1,080 1,100 102 16,220 18,300 113 17,300 19,400 112 KS : 170 180 106 1,670 1,700 102 1,840 1,880 102 MI : 110 100 91 890 940 106 1,000 1,040 104 MN : 590 600 102 6,310 7,100 113 6,900 7,700 112 MO : 360 375 104 2,440 2,775 114 2,800 3,150 113 NE : 365 355 97 2,685 2,995 112 3,050 3,350 110 NC : 1,010 1,030 102 8,490 9,170 108 9,500 10,200 107 OH : 170 165 97 1,520 1,675 110 1,690 1,840 109 OK : 350 400 114 1,980 1,950 98 2,330 2,350 101 PA : 105 100 95 975 1,070 110 1,080 1,170 108 SD : 140 165 118 1,130 1,295 115 1,270 1,460 115 TX : 95 110 116 845 1,050 124 940 1,160 123 WI : 55 50 91 395 390 99 450 440 98 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 477 476 100 3,212 3,356 104 3,690 3,833 104 : US : 6,087 6,221 102 56,402 61,951 110 62,490 68,173 109 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, December 1, 2006-2007 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 125 150 15 20 15 15 20 20 CO : 380 360 80 90 85 90 140 160 IL : 1,270 1,420 970 980 800 820 720 690 IN : 1,120 1,260 760 850 580 670 560 590 IA : 4,910 5,810 4,470 4,880 3,540 4,060 3,300 3,550 KS : 560 580 320 365 310 295 480 460 MI : 300 320 230 240 170 200 190 180 MN : 2,420 2,750 1,540 1,730 1,250 1,450 1,100 1,170 MO : 1,130 1,310 490 570 475 475 345 420 NE : 1,010 1,150 720 805 530 590 425 450 NC : 3,390 3,420 1,970 2,220 1,680 1,890 1,450 1,640 OH : 590 650 370 405 305 365 255 255 OK : 900 910 340 300 240 220 500 520 PA : 300 350 300 300 185 220 190 200 SD : 415 465 260 285 220 295 235 250 TX : 280 310 200 230 185 230 180 280 WI : 155 150 100 100 70 70 70 70 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,207 1,187 793 804 635 702 578 664 : US : 20,462 22,552 13,928 15,174 11,275 12,657 10,738 11,569 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market Hogs and Pigs due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, December-February 2007-2009 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 3/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2009 4/ : Per Litter : : 2008 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 2007 : 2008 : :as % of: : : 2007 : :as % of : : :Number : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : :Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 39 44 45 102 9.45 9.60 369 422 114 CO : 83 84 80 95 8.80 9.05 730 760 104 IL : 210 240 240 100 9.05 9.25 1,901 2,220 117 IN : 140 150 145 97 8.80 9.00 1,232 1,350 110 IA : 455 510 490 96 9.00 9.20 4,095 4,692 115 KS : 88 86 87 101 8.90 9.10 783 783 100 MI : 49 52 53 102 8.75 9.45 429 491 114 MN : 275 285 275 96 9.25 9.25 2,544 2,636 104 MO : 180 190 185 97 9.05 9.20 1,629 1,748 107 NE : 180 190 180 95 9.20 9.50 1,656 1,805 109 NC : 540 550 540 98 9.10 9.20 4,914 5,060 103 OH : 84 89 85 96 9.15 9.15 769 814 106 OK : 190 180 180 100 9.20 9.35 1,748 1,683 96 PA : 44 43 37 86 9.00 9.50 396 409 103 SD : 67 88 76 86 9.50 9.60 637 845 133 TX : 45 53 50 94 8.90 9.00 401 477 119 WI : 27 26 23 88 8.95 8.95 242 233 96 : Oth : Sts 5/ : 209 211 212 100 9.18 9.29 1,921 1,960 102 : US : 2,905 3,071 2,983 97 9.09 9.24 26,396 28,388 108 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ May not add due to rounding. 3/ Number of pigs born December-February that were still on hand March 1, or had been sold. 4/ Intentions. 5/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, March-May 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2008 : per Litter : : 2008 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 2007 : :as % of : : : 2007 : :as % of : : Number : 2007 : 2007 : 2008 : : Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 42 45 107 9.80 9.80 412 441 107 CO : 80 82 103 8.90 8.85 712 726 102 IL : 230 230 100 9.05 9.35 2,082 2,151 103 IN : 140 145 104 8.95 9.10 1,253 1,320 105 IA : 480 530 110 9.20 9.35 4,416 4,956 112 KS : 88 80 91 8.95 9.10 788 728 92 MI : 53 53 100 9.00 9.70 477 514 108 MN : 290 290 100 9.35 9.50 2,712 2,755 102 MO : 195 195 100 9.15 9.40 1,784 1,833 103 NE : 185 190 103 9.45 9.60 1,748 1,824 104 NC : 560 560 100 9.05 9.35 5,068 5,236 103 OH : 83 89 107 9.30 9.40 772 837 108 OK : 195 185 95 9.40 9.45 1,833 1,748 95 PA : 45 43 96 9.10 9.45 410 406 99 SD : 73 86 118 9.55 9.70 697 834 120 TX : 49 52 106 9.25 8.60 453 447 99 WI : 26 26 100 8.90 9.10 231 237 103 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 219 211 96 9.36 9.53 2,048 2,007 98 : US : 3,033 3,092 102 9.20 9.38 27,896 29,000 104 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, June-August 2007-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2008 : per Litter : : 2008 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 2007 : :as % of : : : 2007 : :as % of : : Number : 2007 : 2007 : 2008 : : Number : 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 46 50 109 9.70 9.70 446 485 109 CO : 83 76 92 9.15 8.90 759 676 89 IL : 245 240 98 9.15 9.45 2,242 2,268 101 IN : 150 145 97 9.10 9.25 1,365 1,341 98 IA : 480 510 106 9.30 9.40 4,464 4,794 107 KS : 90 81 90 9.00 9.15 810 741 91 MI : 55 53 96 9.20 9.25 506 490 97 MN : 295 285 97 9.50 9.80 2,803 2,793 100 MO : 195 195 100 9.30 9.70 1,814 1,892 104 NE : 200 185 93 9.50 9.70 1,900 1,795 94 NC : 580 560 97 9.10 9.65 5,278 5,404 102 OH : 86 89 103 9.40 9.50 808 846 105 OK : 195 195 100 9.35 9.40 1,823 1,833 101 PA : 48 38 79 9.60 9.60 461 365 79 SD : 83 81 98 9.60 9.80 797 794 100 TX : 58 52 90 9.05 8.55 525 445 85 WI : 26 24 92 8.90 9.10 231 218 94 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 217 217 100 9.49 9.56 2,062 2,071 100 : US : 3,132 3,076 98 9.29 9.51 29,094 29,251 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born June-August that were still on hand September 1, or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, September-November 2006-2008 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2008 3/ : Per Litter : : 2007 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 2006 : 2007 : :as % of: : : 2006 : :as % of : : :Number : 2007 : 2006 : 2007 : :Number : 2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 38 44 46 105 9.75 9.80 371 431 116 CO : 84 83 77 93 8.80 9.05 739 751 102 IL : 215 245 240 98 9.10 9.25 1,957 2,266 116 IN : 140 155 140 90 8.90 9.00 1,246 1,395 112 IA : 480 540 510 94 9.05 9.30 4,344 5,022 116 KS : 87 89 85 96 8.85 9.15 770 814 106 MI : 50 53 52 98 8.95 9.45 448 501 112 MN : 280 295 275 93 9.30 9.30 2,604 2,744 105 MO : 175 195 185 95 9.00 9.30 1,575 1,814 115 NE : 185 195 180 92 9.25 9.55 1,711 1,862 109 NC : 550 570 540 95 9.15 9.20 5,033 5,244 104 OH : 83 86 85 99 9.20 9.45 764 813 106 OK : 185 190 190 100 9.00 9.20 1,665 1,748 105 PA : 43 51 37 73 9.00 9.10 387 464 120 SD : 71 90 78 87 9.45 9.55 671 860 128 TX : 45 58 54 93 8.95 9.35 403 542 134 WI : 29 26 23 88 8.90 8.90 258 231 90 : Oth : Sts 4/ : 209 215 209 97 9.12 9.36 1,911 2,009 105 : US : 2,949 3,180 3,006 95 9.11 9.28 26,857 29,511 110 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1, or had been sold. 3/ Intentions. 4/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 Other States. Monthly Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop, United States, December-November 2007-2008 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : Pigs per Litter : Pig Crop Month :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 : 2007 : 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 Head --- ---- Number ---- --- 1,000 Head --- : Dec 1/ : 960 1,017 9.08 9.22 8,712 9,381 Jan : 972 1,028 9.10 9.24 8,841 9,502 Feb : 973 1,026 9.09 9.26 8,843 9,505 Mar : 1,023 1,060 9.14 9.35 9,346 9,910 Apr : 1,006 1,013 9.23 9.38 9,290 9,507 May : 1,004 1,019 9.22 9.40 9,260 9,583 Jun : 1,046 1,046 9.30 9.48 9,727 9,916 Jul : 1,040 1,021 9.31 9.52 9,680 9,721 Aug : 1,046 1,009 9.26 9.53 9,687 9,614 Sep : 1,078 9.27 9,993 Oct : 1,062 9.30 9,872 Nov : 1,040 9.28 9,646 : Total : 12,250 9.22 112,898 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to rounding. Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates Survey Procedures: A random sample of roughly 9,200 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. During the first half of September 2008, data were collected from about 7,600 operations, 83 percent of the total sample. The data collected were received by electronic data reporting (EDR), mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1, 2008. Estimation Procedures: Hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each field office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds the estimates of births and imports, and subtracts the estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all hog raising operations are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 68.7 million head by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.8 percent. Reliability of September 1 Hog Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number : All Hogs & : 1.6 2.8 1,911 731 50 3,063 2 18 Pigs : : Pig Crop : 2.1 3.6 1,039 382 0 1,643 2 17 : Expected : Farrowings : : Next : Quarter : 2.5 4.3 131 53 3 216 3 17 : Following : Quarter : 2.9 5.0 152 65 3 220 3 17 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on quarterly records for the past 20 quarters. Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch..............................(202) 720-3570 Livestock Section Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section..............................(202) 690-2424 Jim Collom - Dairy Products................................(202) 690-3236 Joe Gaynor - Dairy Products Prices.........................(202) 690-2168 Jason Hardegree - Cattle, Cattle on Feed...................(202) 720-3040 Benita Hodge - Livestock Slaughter.........................(515) 284-4340 Everett Olbert - Sheep and Goats...........................(202) 720-4751 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows................(202) 720-3278 Nick Streff - Hogs and Pigs................................(202) 720-3106 ACCESS TO REPORTS!! 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USDA Data Users’ Meeting October 20, 2008 Doubletree Hotel Chicago O’Hare Airport-Rosemont Rosemont, Illinois (847) 292-9100 The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users’ Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.nass.usda.gov/forum/ or contact Marjorie Taylor (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at marjorie_taylor@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users’ Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 21, 2008. The Outlook meeting brings together analysts from various commodity sectors to discuss the outlook situation. For registration details or additional information for the Industry Outlook Meeting see the Livestock and Marketing Information Center (LMIC) homepage at www.lmic.info or contact Jim Robb at (720) 544-2941 or at robb@lmic.info.