Da 1-1 (3-06)b Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 17, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Charmaine Wilson at 202-690-2168, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 5.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 13.0 billion pounds, up 5.9 percent from February 2005. January production, at 14.0 billion pounds, was up 5.5 percent from January 2005. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,588 pounds for February, 66 pounds above February 2005. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.21 million head, 121,000 head more than February 2005, and 10,000 head more than January 2006. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,002 4,816 43,350 Apr-Jun : 9,041 5,069 45,831 Jul-Sep : 9,060 4,871 44,134 Oct-Dec : 9,060 4,821 43,674 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : from : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 Feb : 8,084 8,205 1,522 1,588 12,301 13,029 5.9 Mar : 8,099 1,707 13,825 Apr : 8,117 1,690 13,717 May : 8,131 1,760 14,311 Jun : 8,138 1,690 13,755 Jul : 8,151 1,683 13,715 Aug : 8,162 1,671 13,640 Sep : 8,167 1,599 13,057 Oct : 8,168 1,637 13,373 Nov : 8,167 1,592 13,002 Dec : 8,179 1,663 13,599 : Annual : 8,138 19,857 161,582 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,000 9,078 1,624 1,692 14,614 15,355 5.1 Feb : 8,996 9,088 1,504 1,571 13,530 14,275 5.5 Mar : 9,009 1,688 15,206 Apr : 9,030 1,666 15,047 May : 9,042 1,735 15,697 Jun : 9,050 1,668 15,087 Jul : 9,053 1,656 14,978 Aug : 9,060 1,643 14,896 Sep : 9,066 1,572 14,260 Oct : 9,060 1,613 14,611 Nov : 9,056 1,569 14,205 Dec : 9,063 1,639 14,858 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 164 166 1,840 1,930 302 320 6.0 CA : 1,742 1,781 1,635 1,705 2,848 3,037 6.6 CO : 100 106 1,720 1,795 172 190 10.5 FL : 139 134 1,475 1,440 205 193 -5.9 ID : 437 473 1,680 1,680 734 795 8.3 IL : 105 104 1,500 1,540 158 160 1.3 IN : 155 162 1,600 1,575 248 255 2.8 IA : 190 200 1,615 1,630 307 326 6.2 KS : 109 111 1,575 1,620 172 180 4.7 KY : 110 101 1,000 1,050 110 106 -3.6 MI : 308 314 1,660 1,725 511 542 6.1 MN : 455 450 1,405 1,480 639 666 4.2 MO : 117 114 1,230 1,320 144 150 4.2 NM : 320 344 1,560 1,700 499 585 17.2 NY : 650 649 1,415 1,485 920 964 4.8 OH : 267 273 1,370 1,390 366 379 3.6 OR : 120 121 1,460 1,430 175 173 -1.1 PA : 560 555 1,420 1,550 795 860 8.2 TX : 317 325 1,560 1,755 495 570 15.2 VT : 143 143 1,430 1,450 204 207 1.5 VA : 105 103 1,345 1,410 141 145 2.8 WA : 237 236 1,805 1,790 428 422 -1.4 WI : 1,234 1,240 1,400 1,455 1,728 1,804 4.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,084 8,205 1,522 1,588 12,301 13,029 5.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 165 165 1,975 2,035 326 336 3.1 CA : 1,739 1,776 1,770 1,825 3,078 3,241 5.3 CO : 100 106 1,860 1,935 186 205 10.2 FL : 138 134 1,520 1,485 210 199 -5.2 ID : 436 473 1,830 1,830 798 866 8.5 IL : 105 104 1,620 1,630 170 170 IN : 155 161 1,640 1,720 254 277 9.1 IA : 190 200 1,750 1,765 333 353 6.0 KS : 109 111 1,730 1,790 189 199 5.3 KY : 110 101 1,090 1,150 120 116 -3.3 MI : 306 313 1,785 1,875 546 587 7.5 MN : 460 445 1,510 1,605 695 714 2.7 MO : 118 114 1,330 1,440 157 164 4.5 NM : 319 342 1,710 1,845 545 631 15.8 NY : 650 651 1,535 1,595 998 1,038 4.0 OH : 267 273 1,460 1,490 390 407 4.4 OR : 120 121 1,570 1,530 188 185 -1.6 PA : 564 557 1,540 1,650 869 919 5.8 TX : 318 325 1,655 1,845 526 600 14.1 VT : 143 143 1,560 1,580 223 226 1.3 VA : 105 103 1,465 1,510 154 156 1.3 WA : 235 237 1,960 1,940 461 460 -0.2 WI : 1,235 1,240 1,515 1,585 1,871 1,965 5.0 : 23-State : Total : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 and 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October - December quarters is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October - December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.06 million head by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.7 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 349 147 1 265 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.4 0.7 63 22 1 73 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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