HDR1012000160030816951500MILK PRODUCTION HDR2012000160030816951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS Released August 16, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. July Milk Production Up 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during July totaled 11.4 billion pounds, 1 percent above production in these same States in July 1994. June revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was 2 percent more than June 1994. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,409 pounds for July, 20 pounds above July 1994. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.10 million head, unchanged from both July 1994 and June 1995. During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.9 billion pounds of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 13.3 billion pounds for July 1995. Note Page 6 contains corrections to the "Grain and Other Concentrates" table published in the July Milk Production report. The corrections affected the U.S. estimates only. Da 1-1 (8-95) HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD: BY QTR, US, 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,506 9,517 3,951 4,093 37,560 38,950 104 Apr-Jun : 9,530 9,517 4,188 4,254 39,916 40,487 101 Jul-Sep : 9,539 4,007 38,217 Oct-Dec : 9,524 3,983 37,933 : Annual : 9,525 16,129 153,626 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD: BY MO, 22 SELECTED STS, 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,092 8,090 1,343 1,394 10,870 11,280 104 Feb : 8,082 8,088 1,236 1,291 9,990 10,441 105 Mar : 8,074 8,103 1,401 1,444 11,315 11,698 103 Apr : 8,080 8,097 1,396 1,417 11,282 11,477 102 May : 8,097 8,093 1,457 1,475 11,799 11,936 101 Jun : 8,107 8,104 1,388 1,414 11,249 11,461 102 Jul : 8,104 8,104 1,389 1,409 11,260 11,415 101 Aug : 8,108 1,369 11,102 Sep : 8,109 1,318 10,689 Oct : 8,104 1,354 10,970 Nov : 8,098 1,312 10,624 Dec : 8,094 1,370 11,090 : Annual : 8,096 16,334 132,240 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD: BY STS, Jul 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,237 1,254 1,745 1,745 2,159 2,188 101 FL : 176 162 1,155 1,140 203 185 91 ID : 211 234 1,610 1,580 340 370 109 IL : 165 162 1,300 1,330 215 215 100 IN : 145 144 1,340 1,300 194 187 96 IA : 264 262 1,270 1,305 335 342 102 KY : 167 163 970 1,025 162 167 103 MD : 92 94 1,140 1,160 105 109 104 MI : 328 327 1,470 1,490 482 487 101 MN : 605 600 1,305 1,325 790 795 101 MO : 198 188 1,115 1,190 221 224 101 NM : 170 198 1,694 1,610 288 319 111 NY : 715 700 1,355 1,390 969 973 100 NC : 91 86 1,285 1,325 117 114 97 OH : 294 288 1,290 1,330 379 383 101 PA : 640 640 1,330 1,375 851 880 103 TN : 156 154 1,020 1,060 159 163 103 TX : 402 402 1,215 1,190 488 478 98 VT : 157 157 1,305 1,300 205 204 100 VA : 129 129 1,170 1,210 151 156 103 WA : 262 268 1,725 1,725 452 462 102 WI : 1,500 1,492 1,330 1,350 1,995 2,014 101 : 22 State: Total : 8,104 8,104 1,389 1,409 11,260 11,415 101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030816951500MILK COWS & PROD: BY STS, Jun 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1994-95 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,235 1,254 1,715 1,680 2,118 2,105 99 FL : 178 162 1,245 1,220 222 198 89 ID : 208 232 1,560 1,520 324 353 109 IL : 165 163 1,300 1,340 215 218 101 IN : 145 144 1,280 1,290 186 186 100 IA : 264 262 1,260 1,310 333 343 103 KY : 167 163 975 1,050 163 171 105 MD : 92 94 1,175 1,200 108 113 105 MI : 328 327 1,450 1,470 476 481 101 MN : 610 600 1,335 1,370 814 822 101 MO : 198 190 1,110 1,200 220 228 104 NM : 169 196 1,657 1,585 280 311 111 NY : 718 702 1,380 1,430 991 1,004 101 NC : 91 86 1,330 1,365 121 117 97 OH : 295 288 1,235 1,340 364 386 106 PA : 640 639 1,360 1,400 870 895 103 TN : 157 154 1,030 1,110 162 171 106 TX : 404 402 1,240 1,255 501 505 101 VT : 156 157 1,320 1,370 206 215 104 VA : 130 129 1,145 1,240 149 160 107 WA : 262 268 1,700 1,700 445 456 102 WI : 1,495 1,492 1,325 1,355 1,981 2,023 102 : 22 State: Total : 8,107 8,104 1,388 1,414 11,249 11,461 102 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1995 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030816951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 105,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 200,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). HDR2012000160030816951500RELIABILITY TABLE Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.1 445 204 38 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 200 97 12 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. HDR2012000160030816951500GRAIN & OTH CONC.: QTY. FED ANN. & VAL. US Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Annually and Value United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Annual Quantity : : : Fed to Milk Cows : Annual Average : Annual Average Year :-----------------------------: Value of : Feed Value : Total : Per Cow : Per Cwt : Feed per : per Cwt : : : of Milk : Cwt : of Milk ---------:------------------------------------------------------------------ :1,000 Tons ---- Pounds ---- -------- Dollars ------- : 1993 : 31,952 6,664 42.4* 7.78 3.30* 1994 : 32,584 6,846 42.4* 7.98 3.39* ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Corrected estimates. HDR2012000160030816951500EEO STATEMENT & SUBSCRIPTION INFO The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on September 15, 1995. 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