HDR1012000160030915951500MILK PRODUCTION HDR2012000160030915951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS Released September 15, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. August Milk Production Up Slightly Milk production in the 22 major States during August totaled 11.1 billion pounds, slightly above production in these same States in August 1994. July revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was 1 percent more than July 1994. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,373 pounds for August 4 pounds above August 1994. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.11 million head, unchanged from August 1994 but 2,000 head more than July 1995. During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.9 billion pounds of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.9 billion pounds for August 1995. Da 1-1 (9-95) HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.: BY QTR., US, 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,506 9,517 3,951 4,093 37,560 38,950 104 Apr-Jun : 9,530 9,517 4,188 4,254 39,916 40,487 101 Jul-Sep : 9,539 4,007 38,217 Oct-Dec : 9,524 3,983 37,933 : Annual : 9,525 16,129 153,626 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,092 8,090 1,343 1,394 10,870 11,280 104 Feb : 8,082 8,088 1,236 1,291 9,990 10,441 105 Mar : 8,074 8,103 1,401 1,444 11,315 11,698 103 Apr : 8,080 8,097 1,396 1,417 11,282 11,477 102 May : 8,097 8,093 1,457 1,475 11,799 11,936 101 Jun : 8,107 8,104 1,388 1,414 11,249 11,461 102 Jul : 8,104 8,106 1,389 1,408 11,260 11,412 101 Aug : 8,108 8,108 1,369 1,373 11,102 11,134 100 Sep : 8,109 1,318 10,689 Oct : 8,104 1,354 10,970 Nov : 8,098 1,312 10,624 Dec : 8,094 1,370 11,090 : Annual : 8,096 16,334 132,240 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.: BY ST., AUGUST 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,239 1,255 1,730 1,710 2,143 2,146 100 FL : 176 162 1,075 1,060 189 172 91 ID : 213 235 1,590 1,570 339 369 109 IL : 164 162 1,300 1,270 213 206 97 IN : 145 142 1,330 1,310 193 186 96 IA : 265 262 1,270 1,285 337 337 100 KY : 167 163 1,000 1,045 167 170 102 MD : 91 94 1,165 1,140 106 107 101 MI : 327 326 1,460 1,440 477 469 98 MN : 605 600 1,255 1,270 759 762 100 MO : 196 188 1,120 1,130 220 212 96 NM : 171 198 1,667 1,575 285 312 109 NY : 716 700 1,325 1,380 949 966 102 NC : 90 86 1,265 1,245 114 107 94 OH : 294 288 1,255 1,295 369 373 101 PA : 641 643 1,310 1,345 840 865 103 TN : 157 154 1,030 1,050 162 162 100 TX : 402 402 1,190 1,105 478 444 93 VT : 157 158 1,300 1,325 204 209 102 VA : 129 129 1,210 1,240 156 160 103 WA : 263 271 1,720 1,710 452 463 102 WI : 1,500 1,490 1,300 1,300 1,950 1,937 99 : 22 State: Total : 8,108 8,108 1,369 1,373 11,102 11,134 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030915951500MILK COWS & PROD.: BY ST., JULY 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1994-95 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,237 1,254 1,745 1,725 2,159 2,163 100 FL : 176 162 1,155 1,135 203 184 91 ID : 211 234 1,610 1,580 340 370 109 IL : 165 162 1,300 1,330 215 215 100 IN : 145 144 1,340 1,300 194 187 96 IA : 264 262 1,270 1,305 335 342 102 KY : 167 163 970 1,030 162 168 104 MD : 92 94 1,140 1,160 105 109 104 MI : 328 327 1,470 1,490 482 487 101 MN : 605 600 1,305 1,325 790 795 101 MO : 198 188 1,115 1,190 221 224 101 NM : 170 198 1,694 1,585 288 314 109 NY : 715 700 1,355 1,410 969 987 102 NC : 91 86 1,285 1,325 117 114 97 OH : 294 288 1,290 1,330 379 383 101 PA : 640 640 1,330 1,375 851 880 103 TN : 156 154 1,020 1,060 159 163 103 TX : 402 402 1,215 1,190 488 478 98 VT : 157 158 1,305 1,360 205 215 105 VA : 129 129 1,170 1,210 151 156 103 WA : 262 269 1,725 1,725 452 464 103 WI : 1,500 1,492 1,330 1,350 1,995 2,014 101 : 22 State: Total : 8,104 8,106 1,389 1,408 11,260 11,412 101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1995 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160030915951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 105,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 200,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). HDR2012000160030915951500RELIABILITY TABLE Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.1 445 204 38 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 200 97 12 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. HDR2012000160030915951500NEXT RPTG DATE, EEO STATEMENT AND SUBSCRIPTION The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET. on October 13, 1995 The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! 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