HDR1012000160031215951500MILK PRODUCTION HDR2012000160031215951500MILK PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS Released December 15, 1995, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@AG.GOV. November Milk Production Up Slightly Milk production in the 22 major States during November totaled 10.6 billion pounds, slightly above production in these same States in November 1994. October revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was slightly more than October 1994. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,315 pounds for November, 3 pounds above November 1994. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.09 million head, 9,000 head less than both November 1994 and October 1995. During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 33.3 billion pounds of milk, 86.6 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.3 billion pounds for November 1995. Da 1-1 (12-95) HDR2012000160031215951500MILK COWS AND PRODUCTION Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,506 9,517 3,951 4,093 37,560 38,950 104 Apr-Jun : 9,530 9,516 4,188 4,254 39,916 40,484 101 Jul-Sep : 9,539 9,518 4,007 4,040 38,217 38,453 101 Oct-Dec : 9,524 3,983 37,933 : Annual : 9,525 16,129 153,626 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160031215951500MLK COWS & PRD. BY MO. 22 SELECT. STS,94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,092 8,090 1,343 1,394 10,870 11,280 104 Feb : 8,082 8,088 1,236 1,291 9,990 10,441 105 Mar : 8,074 8,103 1,401 1,444 11,315 11,698 103 Apr : 8,080 8,097 1,396 1,417 11,282 11,477 102 May : 8,097 8,093 1,457 1,475 11,799 11,936 101 Jun : 8,107 8,104 1,388 1,414 11,249 11,461 102 Jul : 8,104 8,106 1,389 1,408 11,260 11,412 101 Aug : 8,108 8,109 1,369 1,372 11,102 11,128 100 Sep : 8,109 8,109 1,318 1,328 10,689 10,766 101 Oct : 8,104 8,098 1,354 1,360 10,970 11,014 100 Nov : 8,098 8,089 1,312 1,315 10,624 10,638 100 Dec : 8,094 1,370 11,090 : Annual : 8,096 16,334 132,240 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160031215951500MILK COWS & PROD: BY ST NOV. 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1994-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,245 1,258 1,655 1,630 2,060 2,051 100 FL : 173 155 1,140 1,115 197 173 88 ID : 217 241 1,470 1,460 319 352 110 IL : 163 162 1,250 1,250 204 203 100 IN : 145 143 1,240 1,240 180 177 98 IA : 265 262 1,245 1,250 330 328 99 KY : 165 161 995 980 164 158 96 MD : 91 91 1,200 1,185 109 108 99 MI : 326 326 1,355 1,350 442 440 100 MN : 605 600 1,185 1,220 717 732 102 MO : 196 189 1,115 1,070 219 202 92 NM : 171 196 1,620 1,475 277 289 104 NY : 712 702 1,255 1,300 894 913 102 NC : 89 86 1,330 1,290 118 111 94 OH : 289 287 1,290 1,265 373 363 97 PA : 641 647 1,310 1,310 840 848 101 TN : 160 153 1,020 1,045 163 160 98 TX : 401 400 1,210 1,190 485 476 98 VT : 157 158 1,240 1,275 195 201 103 VA : 129 128 1,250 1,240 161 159 99 WA : 261 264 1,600 1,585 418 418 100 WI : 1,497 1,480 1,175 1,200 1,759 1,776 101 : 22 State: Total : 8,098 8,089 1,312 1,315 10,624 10,638 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160031215951500MILK COWS & PROD. BY ST OCT 94-95 Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1994-95 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1995 as : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : 1994 : 1995 : % of : : : : : : : 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,243 1,257 1,725 1,690 2,144 2,124 99 FL : 173 157 1,085 1,050 188 165 88 ID : 216 240 1,540 1,530 333 367 110 IL : 164 162 1,270 1,255 208 203 98 IN : 145 143 1,260 1,280 183 183 100 IA : 266 262 1,265 1,275 336 334 99 KY : 165 161 1,020 1,000 168 161 96 MD : 91 92 1,210 1,195 110 110 100 MI : 326 326 1,415 1,410 461 460 100 MN : 605 600 1,230 1,260 744 756 102 MO : 197 189 1,130 1,110 223 210 94 NM : 172 196 1,657 1,510 285 296 104 NY : 713 702 1,300 1,360 927 955 103 NC : 89 86 1,320 1,300 117 112 96 OH : 291 287 1,300 1,290 378 370 98 PA : 639 647 1,330 1,375 850 890 105 TN : 160 153 1,010 1,040 162 159 98 TX : 401 401 1,220 1,200 489 481 98 VT : 157 158 1,290 1,340 203 212 104 VA : 129 128 1,260 1,260 163 161 99 WA : 264 266 1,665 1,660 440 441 100 WI : 1,498 1,485 1,240 1,255 1,858 1,864 100 : 22 State: Total : 8,104 8,098 1,354 1,360 10,970 11,014 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ 1995 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. HDR2012000160031215951500RELIABILITY STATEMENT Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture,conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.52 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 124,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 219,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). HDR2012000160031215951500RELIABILITY TABLE Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.9 1.6 616 270 15 538 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.3 219 113 15 179 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters.