HDR1012000160030313961500MILK PRODUCTION Released March 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. February Milk Production up 3 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during February totaled 10.8 billion pounds, 3 percent above production in these same States in February 1995. The increase is due to February 1996 having an extra day because it is leap year. On a daily basis, milk production declined during February 1996 versus a year earlier. January revised production, at 11.3 billion pounds was slightly less than January 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,343 pounds for February, 48 pounds above February 1995. On an average daily basis, production per cow for February was virtually unchanged from a year ago. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 8.01 million head, 38,000 head less than February 1995 and 14,000 head less than January 1996. During the October-December period, the 22 major States produced 32.7 billion pounds of milk, 86.3 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.5 billion pounds for February 1996. Correction this issue: U.S. milk cow totals, 1994 Quarterly Revisions for Apr.- Jun. and Oct.- Dec. Da 1-1 (3-96) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 4,112 38,941 Apr-Jun : 9,477 4,276 40,520 Jul-Sep : 9,465 4,049 38,325 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,012 1,295 1,343 10,423 10,762 103 Mar : 8,061 1,453 11,709 Apr : 8,058 1,427 11,501 May : 8,056 1,484 11,959 Jun : 8,066 1,421 11,465 Jul : 8,062 1,414 11,397 Aug : 8,062 1,375 11,086 Sep : 8,061 1,331 10,729 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,251 1,260 1,545 1,600 1,933 2,016 104 FL : 166 155 1,290 1,350 214 209 98 ID : 221 246 1,360 1,370 301 337 112 IL : 163 160 1,260 1,310 205 210 102 IN : 145 140 1,200 1,260 174 176 101 IA : 251 250 1,245 1,180 312 295 95 KY : 163 156 965 985 157 154 98 MD : 92 91 1,185 1,210 109 110 101 MI : 326 327 1,315 1,365 429 446 104 MN : 600 600 1,245 1,305 747 783 105 MO : 193 183 1,115 1,160 215 212 99 NM : 179 193 1,555 1,500 278 290 104 NY : 707 700 1,250 1,340 884 938 106 NC : 89 85 1,340 1,370 119 116 97 OH : 289 285 1,260 1,245 364 355 98 PA : 641 645 1,280 1,345 820 868 106 TN : 130 119 1,100 1,140 143 136 95 TX : 399 400 1,300 1,345 519 538 104 VT : 156 157 1,250 1,275 195 200 103 VA : 129 127 1,215 1,210 157 154 98 WA : 262 263 1,540 1,535 403 404 100 WI : 1,498 1,470 1,165 1,235 1,745 1,815 104 : 22 State: Total : 8,050 8,012 1,295 1,343 10,423 10,762 103 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,250 1,260 1,685 1,670 2,106 2,104 100 FL : 168 155 1,375 1,405 231 218 94 ID : 220 245 1,500 1,490 330 365 111 IL : 163 160 1,270 1,350 207 216 104 IN : 145 140 1,280 1,290 186 181 97 IA : 251 250 1,365 1,260 343 315 92 KY : 163 157 1,075 1,045 175 164 94 MD : 92 91 1,280 1,265 118 115 97 MI : 326 327 1,435 1,425 468 466 100 MN : 600 600 1,345 1,370 807 822 102 MO : 195 185 1,210 1,180 236 218 92 NM : 174 193 1,695 1,570 295 303 103 NY : 708 700 1,360 1,405 963 984 102 NC : 89 86 1,440 1,400 128 120 94 OH : 290 285 1,350 1,325 392 378 96 PA : 639 648 1,390 1,405 888 910 102 TN : 130 120 1,200 1,190 156 143 92 TX : 399 400 1,370 1,380 547 552 101 VT : 156 158 1,335 1,360 208 215 103 VA : 129 128 1,350 1,240 174 159 91 WA : 259 263 1,700 1,650 440 434 99 WI : 1,500 1,475 1,265 1,290 1,898 1,903 100 : 22 State: Total : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. February 1996 Correction Milk Cows and Production: Number and Total Milk Production by Quarter, United States, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Production 2/ State :---------------------------------------------------------------------- :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep : Oct-Dec :Jan-Mar :Apr-Jun :Jul-Sep :Oct-Dec ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---------- 1,000 Head ---------- -------- Million Pounds -------- US : 9,496 9,510* 9,510 9,484* 37,613 39,907 38,209 37,935 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Quarterly average includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. * Corrections for February 1996. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.43 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 123,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 217,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.8 1.5 568 229 22 565 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.3 217 107 18 195 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 16, 1996. 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