HDR1012000160030515961500MILK PRODUCTION Released May 15, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. April Milk Production Down Slightly Milk production in the 22 major States during April totaled 11.5 billion pounds, slightly below production in these same States in April 1995. March revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds was slightly less than March 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,438 pounds for April, 11 pounds above April 1995. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.99 million head, 67,000 head less than April 1995 and 7,000 head less March 1996. During the January-March period, the 22 major States produced 33.7 billion pounds of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 13.3 billion pounds for April 1996. Da 1-1 (5-96) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,400 4,112 4,162 38,941 39,125 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 4,276 40,520 Jul-Sep : 9,465 4,049 38,325 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,991 1,427 1,438 11,501 11,489 100 May : 8,056 1,484 11,959 Jun : 8,066 1,421 11,465 Jul : 8,062 1,414 11,397 Aug : 8,062 1,375 11,086 Sep : 8,061 1,331 10,729 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,252 1,261 1,700 1,725 2,128 2,175 102 FL : 164 155 1,355 1,400 222 217 98 ID : 227 248 1,490 1,490 338 370 109 IL : 163 160 1,370 1,370 223 219 98 IN : 144 140 1,320 1,320 190 185 97 IA : 251 250 1,360 1,280 341 320 94 KY : 163 157 1,135 1,080 185 170 92 MD : 93 87 1,280 1,310 119 114 96 MI : 326 326 1,440 1,440 469 469 100 MN : 595 595 1,365 1,365 812 812 100 MO : 195 183 1,305 1,290 254 236 93 NM : 185 193 1,670 1,670 309 322 104 NY : 705 700 1,390 1,430 980 1,001 102 NC : 88 84 1,480 1,450 130 122 94 OH : 289 285 1,390 1,380 402 393 98 PA : 639 643 1,420 1,435 907 923 102 TN : 131 116 1,240 1,250 162 145 90 TX : 400 400 1,400 1,445 560 578 103 VT : 156 156 1,380 1,395 215 218 101 VA : 129 127 1,335 1,240 172 157 91 WA : 267 261 1,670 1,655 446 432 97 WI : 1,496 1,464 1,295 1,305 1,937 1,911 99 : 22 State: Total : 8,058 7,991 1,427 1,438 11,501 11,489 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,251 1,261 1,725 1,725 2,158 2,175 101 FL : 166 156 1,435 1,475 238 230 97 ID : 223 247 1,510 1,500 337 371 110 IL : 163 160 1,380 1,380 225 221 98 IN : 145 140 1,340 1,380 194 193 99 IA : 251 249 1,380 1,300 346 324 94 KY : 163 156 1,105 1,075 180 168 93 MD : 93 87 1,310 1,380 122 120 98 MI : 326 326 1,490 1,480 486 482 99 MN : 600 595 1,395 1,405 837 836 100 MO : 194 183 1,295 1,245 251 228 91 NM : 185 193 1,705 1,675 315 323 103 NY : 707 700 1,420 1,470 1,004 1,029 102 NC : 88 85 1,510 1,490 133 127 95 OH : 289 285 1,395 1,385 403 395 98 PA : 641 645 1,440 1,465 923 945 102 TN : 130 118 1,250 1,250 163 148 91 TX : 400 400 1,450 1,480 580 592 102 VT : 156 157 1,400 1,405 218 221 101 VA : 129 127 1,355 1,260 175 160 91 WA : 263 262 1,715 1,685 451 441 98 WI : 1,498 1,466 1,315 1,325 1,970 1,942 99 : 22 State: Total : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.40 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 103,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.0 391 180 30 315 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 197 99 5 187 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 13, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and select: 1. 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