HDR1012000160030613961500MILK PRODUCTION Released June 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. May Milk Production Down 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during May totaled 11.8 billion pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in May 1995. April revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was slightly less than April 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,477 pounds for May, 7 pounds below May 1995. This is the first month since February 1993 that the rate has decreased when compared to a year ago. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.99 million head, 67,000 head less than May 1995 but 1,000 head more than April 1996. During the January-March period, the 22 major States produced 33.7 billion pounds of milk, 86.1 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 13.7 billion pounds for May 1996. Da 1-1 (6-96) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,400 4,112 4,162 38,941 39,125 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 4,276 40,520 Jul-Sep : 9,465 4,049 38,325 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,989 1,484 1,477 11,959 11,803 99 Jun : 8,066 1,421 11,465 Jul : 8,062 1,414 11,397 Aug : 8,062 1,375 11,086 Sep : 8,061 1,331 10,729 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,253 1,262 1,775 1,775 2,224 2,240 101 FL : 162 157 1,315 1,360 213 214 100 ID : 229 249 1,560 1,570 357 391 110 IL : 163 160 1,380 1,400 225 224 100 IN : 144 140 1,380 1,350 199 189 95 IA : 251 249 1,410 1,330 354 331 94 KY : 163 156 1,140 1,090 186 170 91 MD : 93 87 1,320 1,310 123 114 93 MI : 326 326 1,510 1,470 492 479 97 MN : 595 595 1,430 1,410 851 839 99 MO : 194 182 1,300 1,305 252 238 94 NM : 190 194 1,695 1,710 322 332 103 NY : 704 703 1,460 1,470 1,028 1,033 100 NC : 87 83 1,480 1,430 129 119 92 OH : 289 285 1,425 1,400 412 399 97 PA : 639 643 1,470 1,460 939 939 100 TN : 129 115 1,240 1,220 160 140 88 TX : 400 400 1,380 1,425 552 570 103 VT : 156 156 1,430 1,450 223 226 101 VA : 129 127 1,350 1,250 174 159 91 WA : 266 262 1,755 1,755 467 460 99 WI : 1,494 1,458 1,390 1,370 2,077 1,997 96 : 22 State: Total : 8,056 7,989 1,484 1,477 11,959 11,803 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,252 1,261 1,700 1,720 2,128 2,169 102 FL : 164 157 1,355 1,400 222 220 99 ID : 227 248 1,490 1,490 338 370 109 IL : 163 160 1,370 1,370 223 219 98 IN : 144 140 1,320 1,320 190 185 97 IA : 251 250 1,360 1,280 341 320 94 KY : 163 156 1,135 1,075 185 168 91 MD : 93 87 1,280 1,310 119 114 96 MI : 326 326 1,440 1,440 469 469 100 MN : 595 595 1,365 1,355 812 806 99 MO : 195 183 1,305 1,290 254 236 93 NM : 185 193 1,670 1,670 309 322 104 NY : 705 700 1,390 1,420 980 994 101 NC : 88 84 1,480 1,450 130 122 94 OH : 289 285 1,390 1,380 402 393 98 PA : 639 643 1,420 1,435 907 923 102 TN : 131 115 1,240 1,250 162 144 89 TX : 400 400 1,400 1,445 560 578 103 VT : 156 156 1,380 1,380 215 215 100 VA : 129 127 1,335 1,240 172 157 91 WA : 267 262 1,670 1,665 446 436 98 WI : 1,496 1,460 1,295 1,295 1,937 1,891 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.40 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 103,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.0 391 180 30 315 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 197 99 5 187 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on , July 15, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and select: 1. 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