HDR1012000160030814961500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service United States Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. Released August 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. See page 7. July Milk Production Down 3 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during July totaled 11.1 billion pounds, 3 percent below production in these same States in July 1995. June revised production, at 11.1 billion pounds was 3 percent less than June 1995. On a daily basis, milk production has been below 1995 levels every month this year. In July, five States are down more than 10 percent from 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,390 pounds for July, 24 pounds below July 1995. This is the third month in a row that the rate has decreased when compared to a year ago. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.98 million head, 86,000 head less than July 1995 and 8,000 head less than June 1996. This is the eleventh consecutive month of decline. During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.3 billion pounds of milk, 86.2 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.9 billion pounds for July 1996. Da 1-1 (8-96) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,379 4,276 4,238 40,520 39,751 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 4,049 38,325 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,976 1,414 1,390 11,397 11,083 97 Aug : 8,062 1,375 11,086 Sep : 8,061 1,331 10,729 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,254 1,262 1,740 1,725 2,182 2,177 100 FL : 162 156 1,135 1,180 184 184 100 ID : 234 255 1,590 1,630 372 416 112 IL : 162 159 1,330 1,320 215 210 98 IN : 144 140 1,300 1,270 187 178 95 IA : 251 250 1,365 1,290 343 323 94 KY : 163 151 1,035 965 169 146 86 MD : 92 86 1,150 1,255 106 108 102 MI : 326 327 1,475 1,410 481 461 96 MN : 600 600 1,325 1,325 795 795 100 MO : 189 177 1,130 990 214 175 82 NM : 198 196 1,585 1,640 314 321 102 NY : 700 703 1,415 1,370 991 963 97 NC : 86 82 1,325 1,245 114 102 89 OH : 289 285 1,340 1,295 387 369 95 PA : 640 643 1,375 1,375 880 884 100 TN : 124 114 1,110 1,070 138 122 88 TX : 402 399 1,190 1,140 478 455 95 VT : 158 157 1,360 1,350 215 212 99 VA : 129 126 1,210 1,065 156 134 86 WA : 269 263 1,725 1,730 464 455 98 WI : 1,490 1,445 1,350 1,310 2,012 1,893 94 : 22 State: Total : 8,062 7,976 1,414 1,390 11,397 11,083 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,254 1,262 1,695 1,690 2,126 2,133 100 FL : 162 156 1,220 1,235 198 193 97 ID : 232 253 1,530 1,570 355 397 112 IL : 163 160 1,340 1,330 218 213 98 IN : 144 140 1,290 1,300 186 182 98 IA : 251 249 1,365 1,285 343 320 93 KY : 163 153 1,060 940 173 144 83 MD : 93 87 1,195 1,220 111 106 95 MI : 326 326 1,465 1,405 478 458 96 MN : 600 600 1,370 1,335 822 801 97 MO : 191 180 1,200 1,040 229 187 82 NM : 196 194 1,585 1,630 311 316 102 NY : 702 704 1,430 1,380 1,004 972 97 NC : 86 83 1,365 1,260 117 105 90 OH : 289 285 1,370 1,300 396 371 94 PA : 639 643 1,400 1,360 895 874 98 TN : 127 114 1,150 1,070 146 122 84 TX : 402 400 1,255 1,230 505 492 97 VT : 157 157 1,375 1,350 216 212 98 VA : 129 126 1,240 1,095 160 138 86 WA : 268 262 1,695 1,705 454 447 98 WI : 1,492 1,450 1,355 1,305 2,022 1,892 94 : 22 State: Total : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.38 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 113,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.1 438 191 32 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.2 2.1 197 100 12 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3:00 p.m. ET on September 13, 1996. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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