HDR1012000160030913961500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the NASS Information Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. See back page. August Milk Production Down 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during August totaled 10.9 billion pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in August 1995. July revised production, at 11.1 billion pounds was 2 percent less than July 1995. On a daily basis, 1996 milk production has been below 1995 levels every month this year. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,371 pounds for August, 4 pounds below August 1995. This is the fourth month in a row that the rate has been below a year ago. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.97 million head, 94,000 head less than August 1995 and 9,000 head less than July 1996. This is the twelfth consecutive month of decline. During the April-June period, the 22 major States produced 34.3 billion pounds of milk, 86.2 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.7 billion pounds for August 1996. ******** Note: NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk production estimating program starting January 1997. The last major change was in 1986. We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding Arizona. Please see table on page 5 for production rankings. Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994. Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996 for the 20 State monthly total. The 20 States in the monthly estimating program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,379 4,276 4,238 40,520 39,751 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 4,049 38,325 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 Aug : 8,062 7,968 1,375 1,371 11,086 10,926 99 Sep : 8,061 1,331 10,729 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,255 1,263 1,715 1,695 2,152 2,141 99 FL : 162 156 1,070 1,100 173 172 99 ID : 237 259 1,580 1,630 374 422 113 IL : 162 158 1,270 1,300 206 205 100 IN : 143 140 1,260 1,260 180 176 98 IA : 250 250 1,350 1,275 338 319 94 KY : 161 151 995 985 160 149 93 MD : 92 86 1,120 1,255 103 108 105 MI : 326 327 1,425 1,405 465 459 99 MN : 600 600 1,270 1,280 762 768 101 MO : 187 175 1,105 1,085 207 190 92 NM : 198 196 1,545 1,565 306 307 100 NY : 700 703 1,395 1,370 977 963 99 NC : 86 81 1,245 1,245 107 101 94 OH : 289 285 1,275 1,240 368 353 96 PA : 643 641 1,345 1,360 865 872 101 TN : 124 112 1,050 1,060 130 119 92 TX : 402 397 1,115 1,065 448 423 94 VT : 158 158 1,355 1,340 214 212 99 VA : 129 126 1,195 1,150 154 145 94 WA : 270 264 1,715 1,730 463 457 99 WI : 1,488 1,440 1,300 1,295 1,934 1,865 96 : 22 State: Total : 8,062 7,968 1,375 1,371 11,086 10,926 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,254 1,262 1,740 1,730 2,182 2,183 100 FL : 162 156 1,135 1,145 184 179 97 ID : 234 257 1,590 1,640 372 421 113 IL : 162 159 1,330 1,320 215 210 98 IN : 144 140 1,300 1,270 187 178 95 IA : 251 250 1,365 1,290 343 323 94 KY : 163 151 1,035 965 169 146 86 MD : 92 86 1,150 1,255 106 108 102 MI : 326 327 1,475 1,410 481 461 96 MN : 600 600 1,325 1,325 795 795 100 MO : 189 177 1,130 1,090 214 193 90 NM : 198 196 1,585 1,605 314 315 100 NY : 700 703 1,415 1,390 991 977 99 NC : 86 82 1,325 1,245 114 102 89 OH : 289 285 1,340 1,295 387 369 95 PA : 640 643 1,375 1,375 880 884 100 TN : 124 113 1,110 1,060 138 120 87 TX : 402 399 1,190 1,140 478 455 95 VT : 158 157 1,360 1,340 215 210 98 VA : 129 126 1,210 1,125 156 142 91 WA : 269 263 1,725 1,735 464 456 98 WI : 1,490 1,445 1,350 1,325 2,012 1,915 95 : 22 State: Total : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 1995 Milk Production Rankings ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : :Milk Production: % of U.S. : Accumulated : Current :Proposed Rank : State : 1995 : Production : % of : Monthly : Monthly : : : : Production : States : States ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Million Pounds -- Percent -- 1 CA 25,327 16.3 16.3 x x 2 WI 22,942 14.7 31.0 x x 3 NY 11,643 7.5 38.5 x x 4 PA 10,600 6.8 45.3 x x 5 MN 9,442 6.1 51.4 x x 6 TX 6,113 3.9 55.3 x x 7 MI 5,565 3.6 58.9 x x 8 WA 5,302 3.4 62.3 x x 9 OH 4,600 3.0 65.2 x x 10 ID 4,210 2.7 67.9 x x 11 IA 4,038 2.6 70.5 x x 12 NM 3,623 2.3 72.9 x x 13 MO 2,690 1.7 74.6 x x 14 IL 2,545 1.6 76.2 x x 15 VT 2,538 1.6 77.9 x x 16 FL 2,381 1.5 79.4 x x 17 AZ 2,230 1.4 80.8 x 18 IN 2,214 1.4 82.2 x x 19 KY 2,020 1.3 83.5 x x 20 VA 1,950 1.3 84.8 x x 21 TN 1,745 1.1 85.9 x 22 OR 1,677 1.1 87.0 23 SD 1,591 1.0 88.0 24 GA 1,555 1.0 89.0 25 CO 1,551 1.0 90.0 26 UT 1,473 0.9 91.0 27 NC 1,417 0.9 91.9 x 28 MD 1,342 0.9 92.7 x 29 OK 1,303 0.8 93.6 30 KS 1,180 0.8 94.3 31 NE 1,095 0.7 95.0 32 LA 905 0.6 95.6 33 ND 838 0.5 96.1 34 AR 732 0.5 96.6 35 MS 710 0.5 97.1 36 ME 641 0.4 97.5 37 CT 526 0.3 97.8 38 AL 482 0.3 98.1 39 MA 448 0.3 98.4 40 NV 425 0.3 98.7 41 SC 391 0.3 98.9 42 NH 326 0.2 99.2 43 NJ 320 0.2 99.4 44 MT 315 0.2 99.6 45 WV 266 0.2 99.7 46 DE 146 0.1 99.8 47 HI 142 0.1 99.9 48 WY 84.6 0.1 100.0 49 RI 32.5 0.0 100.0 50 AK 11.9 0.0 100.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total US 155,644 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.38 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 113,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 197,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.6 1.1 438 191 32 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.2 2.1 197 100 12 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on October 15, 1996. 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