HDR1012000160031015961500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 15, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. See page 10. September Milk Production Down 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during September totaled 10.7 billion pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in September 1995. August revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was 1 percent less than August 1995. On a daily basis, milk production has been below 1995 levels every month this year. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,341 pounds for September, 10 pounds above September 1995. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.96 million head, 100,000 head less than September 1995 and 8,000 head less than August 1996. This is the thirteenth consecutive month of decline. During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.8 billion pounds for July 1996, 12.7 billion pounds for August 1996, 12.3 billion pounds for September 1996. U.S. July-September Milk Production Down 1 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 37.8 billion, 1 percent below the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.35 million head 120,000 head less than the same period last year. Grain and Other Concentrates Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1996, averaged 18.0 pounds per cow, 0.4 pound less than October 1, 1995. Value of Grain and Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to cows on October 1, averaged $9.53 per hundredweight, $1.56 more than October 1, 1995. ******* Note: NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk production estimating program starting January 1997. The last major change was in 1986. We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding Arizona. Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994. Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996 for the 20 State monthly total. The 20 States in the monthly estimating program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,375 4,276 4,236 40,520 39,706 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 9,345 4,049 4,046 38,325 37,813 99 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 Aug : 8,062 7,969 1,375 1,377 11,086 10,970 99 Sep : 8,061 7,961 1,331 1,341 10,729 10,675 99 Oct : 8,050 1,364 10,978 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,256 1,264 1,645 1,680 2,066 2,124 103 FL : 162 155 995 1,075 161 167 104 ID : 238 262 1,500 1,550 357 406 114 IL : 162 158 1,260 1,290 204 204 100 IN : 143 140 1,250 1,250 179 175 98 IA : 250 250 1,310 1,250 328 313 95 KY : 161 151 980 955 158 144 91 MD : 92 85 1,110 1,190 102 101 99 MI : 326 326 1,375 1,365 448 445 99 MN : 600 600 1,220 1,210 732 726 99 MO : 187 175 1,090 1,055 204 185 91 NM : 197 195 1,470 1,540 290 300 103 NY : 702 703 1,350 1,330 948 935 99 NC : 86 80 1,220 1,240 105 99 94 OH : 288 285 1,260 1,230 363 351 97 PA : 646 642 1,330 1,305 859 838 98 TN : 124 111 1,070 1,040 133 115 86 TX : 401 395 1,095 1,095 439 433 99 VT : 158 158 1,315 1,315 208 208 100 VA : 129 126 1,200 1,170 155 147 95 WA : 268 265 1,620 1,650 434 437 101 WI : 1,485 1,435 1,250 1,270 1,856 1,822 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,061 7,961 1,331 1,341 10,729 10,675 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,255 1,263 1,715 1,690 2,152 2,134 99 FL : 162 156 1,070 1,070 173 167 97 ID : 237 260 1,580 1,630 374 424 113 IL : 162 158 1,270 1,300 206 205 100 IN : 143 140 1,260 1,260 180 176 98 IA : 250 250 1,350 1,275 338 319 94 KY : 161 151 995 965 160 146 91 MD : 92 86 1,120 1,255 103 108 105 MI : 326 327 1,425 1,405 465 459 99 MN : 600 600 1,270 1,280 762 768 101 MO : 187 175 1,105 1,085 207 190 92 NM : 198 196 1,545 1,585 306 311 102 NY : 700 703 1,395 1,370 977 963 99 NC : 86 81 1,245 1,245 107 101 94 OH : 289 285 1,275 1,240 368 353 96 PA : 643 641 1,345 1,360 865 872 101 TN : 124 112 1,050 1,060 130 119 92 TX : 402 397 1,115 1,135 448 451 101 VT : 158 158 1,355 1,360 214 215 100 VA : 129 126 1,195 1,150 154 145 94 WA : 270 264 1,715 1,735 463 458 99 WI : 1,488 1,440 1,300 1,310 1,934 1,886 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,062 7,969 1,375 1,377 11,086 10,970 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Revised April-June 1995-1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : 1996 State :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 34 32 131 114 87 AK : 0.7 0.8 2.98 3.10 104 AZ : 115 119 597 638 107 AR : 61 58 195 174 89 CA : 1,253 1,262 6,478 6,536 101 CO : 83 84 391 413 106 CT : 32 31 134 128 96 DE : 10 10 37.7 38.6 102 FL : 163 157 633 629 99 GA : 101 96 420 379 90 HI : 10.6 9.3 39.5 34.6 88 ID : 229 250 1,050 1,162 111 IL : 163 160 666 656 98 IN : 144 140 575 556 97 IA : 251 249 1,038 971 94 KS : 81 83 305 300 98 KY : 163 155 544 480 88 LA : 79 78 243 225 93 ME : 40 40 165 166 101 MD : 93 87 353 334 95 MA : 28 27 114 112 98 MI : 326 326 1,439 1,406 98 MN : 597 597 2,485 2,440 98 MS : 56 52 195 176 90 MO : 193 182 735 661 90 MT : 21 20 81 77 95 NE : 74 69 276 258 93 NV : 24 25 110.4 117.5 106 NH : 20 19 84 85 101 NJ : 23 23 83 77 93 NM : 190 194 942 975 104 NY : 704 702 3,012 2,985 99 NC : 87 83 376 346 92 ND : 65 63 221 214 97 OH : 289 285 1,210 1,163 96 OK : 98 98 333 330 99 OR : 98 93 436 415 95 PA : 639 643 2,741 2,736 100 RI : 2.2 2 8.5 7.9 93 SC : 27 26 104 98 94 SD : 118 112 422 377 89 TN : 129 115 468 406 87 TX : 401 400 1,617 1,640 101 UT : 88 92 378 397 105 VT : 156 156 654 648 99 VA : 129 126 506 451 89 WA : 267 262 1,367 1,342 98 WV : 21 20 67 64 96 WI : 1,494 1,456 6,036 5,743 95 WY : 6.1 6.1 21.4 21.7 101 : US 3/ : 9,477 9,375 40,520 39,706 98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Preliminary July-September 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : 1996 State :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 33 31 101 91 90 AK : 0.7 0.8 3.05 3.56 117 AZ : 114 119 488 515 106 AR : 60 56 174 162 93 CA : 1,255 1,263 6,400 6,441 101 CO : 82 84 385 415 108 CT : 31 30 126 121 96 DE : 10 10 32.9 33.4 102 FL : 162 156 518 513 99 GA : 100 97 339 322 95 HI : 10.2 9.3 34.5 32.4 94 ID : 236 260 1,103 1,251 113 IL : 162 158 625 619 99 IN : 143 140 546 529 97 IA : 250 250 1,009 955 95 KS : 82 80 275 280 102 KY : 162 151 487 436 90 LA : 79 77 194 177 91 ME : 40 40 163 164 101 MD : 92 86 311 317 102 MA : 28 27 112 109 97 MI : 326 327 1,394 1,365 98 MN : 600 600 2,289 2,289 100 MS : 54 50 153 142 93 MO : 188 176 625 568 91 MT : 21 20 80 78 98 NE : 74 69 274 255 93 NV : 23 25.5 105.8 119.9 113 NH : 20 18 81 78 96 NJ : 23 23 77 71 92 NM : 198 196 910 926 102 NY : 701 703 2,916 2,875 99 NC : 86 81 326 302 93 ND : 64 62 212 198 93 OH : 289 285 1,118 1,073 96 OK : 96 96 317 300 95 OR : 97 93 424 404 95 PA : 643 642 2,604 2,594 100 RI : 2.1 1.9 7.9 7.3 92 SC : 26 26 85 85 100 SD : 118 112 404 370 92 TN : 124 112 401 354 88 TX : 402 397 1,365 1,339 98 UT : 88 92 379 410 108 VT : 158 158 637 633 99 VA : 129 126 465 434 93 WA : 269 264 1,361 1,351 99 WV : 21 20 65 60 92 WI : 1,488 1,440 5,802 5,623 97 WY : 6 6.2 21 22.3 106 : U S 3/ : 9,465 9,345 38,325 37,813 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value By State and United States, October 1, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate State : Fed Daily per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows :------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- -------- Dollars -------- : AL : 18.6 16.7 8.40 10.50 AK : 19.5 19.5 13.80 14.50 AZ : 21.6 21.0 7.80 8.70 AR : 17.5 17.7 8.20 10.10 CA : 20.5 20.0 8.00 9.00 CO : 22.5 20.5 7.20 9.50 CT : 17.0 17.5 9.10 11.55 DE : 16.3 13.2 8.80 9.70 FL : 24.0 25.0 7.80 8.40 GA : 22.9 22.0 7.90 9.90 ID : 21.0 21.5 7.30 8.30 IL : 17.1 16.1 7.90 9.15 IN : 17.0 16.6 7.60 10.35 IA : 16.4 17.2 6.50 9.90 KS : 19.0 18.0 7.50 10.80 KY : 16.4 16.1 8.65 10.50 LA : 19.0 18.5 8.35 10.70 ME : 17.0 15.5 8.90 11.60 MD : 14.4 13.0 8.35 10.20 MA : 15.5 16.0 8.95 11.65 MI : 18.5 18.5 7.30 8.75 MN : 17.3 15.7 7.80 9.00 MS : 17.4 17.6 8.20 9.80 MO : 18.5 17.0 8.00 10.00 MT : 16.2 16.5 7.25 8.40 NE : 16.5 16.2 7.30 8.30 NV : 21.0 21.0 8.20 10.50 NH : 16.0 17.0 8.80 11.20 NJ : 14.9 14.5 8.60 12.60 NM : 26.0 26.0 6.60 7.80 NY : 15.3 14.8 9.00 11.70 NC : 17.5 17.7 8.95 10.90 ND : 16.5 15.0 6.30 7.10 OH : 16.3 17.5 8.10 10.10 OK : 18.0 18.8 8.40 10.00 OR : 20.0 18.6 9.30 10.50 PA : 16.0 16.2 9.80 11.00 RI : 16.0 15.0 9.05 11.00 SC : 20.0 22.0 8.00 9.65 SD : 17.0 16.5 6.75 8.20 TN : 16.0 17.0 9.00 11.10 TX : 22.2 20.1 7.90 9.40 UT : 16.9 16.4 7.70 9.20 VT : 16.0 15.0 8.90 11.40 VA : 16.0 14.5 8.90 10.10 WA : 20.0 20.0 8.20 9.65 WV : 14.0 14.0 9.05 10.80 WI : 17.1 16.0 7.20 8.70 WY : 13.0 13.4 6.50 7.80 : US : 18.4 18.0 7.97 9.53 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.35 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 224,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.9 1.6 605 286 157 538 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.4 224 117 15 179 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on November 14, 1996. 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