HDR1012000160031114961500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 14, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. See back page. October Milk Production Down 1 Percent Milk production in the 22 major States during October totaled 10.9 billion pounds, 1 percent below production in these same States in October 1995. September revised production, at 10.6 billion pounds was 1 percent less than September 1995. On a daily basis, total milk production has been below 1995 levels all year. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,373 pounds for October, 9 pounds above October 1995. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.95 million head, 98,000 head less than October 1995 and 5,000 head less than September 1996. This is the fifteenth consecutive month of decline. During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.6 billion pounds for October 1996. **** Note: NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk production estimating program starting January 1997. The last major change was in 1986. We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding Arizona. On page 5 is a table showing Arizona monthly data, starting in 1994. Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994. Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996 for the new 20 State monthly total. The 20 States in the monthly estimating program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production. Value of Grain Correction The value of grain fed to cows on October 1, 1996, averaged $9.51 per hundredweight, versus the $9.53 that was published in the October release. Corrections are on page 6. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,375 4,276 4,236 40,520 39,706 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 9,343 4,049 4,043 38,325 37,778 99 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 Aug : 8,062 7,969 1,375 1,377 11,086 10,970 99 Sep : 8,061 7,957 1,331 1,337 10,729 10,640 99 Oct : 8,050 7,952 1,364 1,373 10,978 10,915 99 Nov : 8,043 1,320 10,616 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,257 1,265 1,690 1,725 2,124 2,182 103 FL : 157 156 1,050 1,160 165 181 110 ID : 240 264 1,530 1,560 367 412 112 IL : 162 157 1,250 1,310 203 206 101 IN : 143 140 1,280 1,280 183 179 98 IA : 250 250 1,330 1,280 333 320 96 KY : 161 151 1,000 980 161 148 92 MD : 91 85 1,185 1,250 108 106 98 MI : 326 326 1,400 1,405 456 458 100 MN : 600 595 1,260 1,260 756 750 99 MO : 187 177 1,105 1,150 207 204 99 NM : 196 195 1,510 1,555 296 303 102 NY : 702 702 1,365 1,330 958 934 97 NC : 86 79 1,280 1,320 110 104 95 OH : 287 285 1,300 1,260 373 359 96 PA : 647 645 1,375 1,345 890 868 98 TN : 123 109 1,120 1,110 138 121 88 TX : 401 395 1,200 1,170 481 462 96 VT : 158 155 1,340 1,350 212 209 99 VA : 128 126 1,240 1,190 159 150 94 WA : 266 265 1,645 1,670 438 443 101 WI : 1,482 1,430 1,255 1,270 1,860 1,816 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,050 7,952 1,364 1,373 10,978 10,915 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,256 1,264 1,645 1,685 2,066 2,130 103 FL : 162 155 995 1,070 161 166 103 ID : 238 262 1,500 1,550 357 406 114 IL : 162 158 1,260 1,290 204 204 100 IN : 143 140 1,250 1,250 179 175 98 IA : 250 250 1,310 1,250 328 313 95 KY : 161 151 980 955 158 144 91 MD : 92 85 1,110 1,190 102 101 99 MI : 326 326 1,375 1,365 448 445 99 MN : 600 600 1,220 1,220 732 732 100 MO : 187 175 1,090 1,055 204 185 91 NM : 197 195 1,470 1,505 290 293 101 NY : 702 703 1,350 1,310 948 921 97 NC : 86 79 1,220 1,240 105 98 93 OH : 288 285 1,260 1,230 363 351 97 PA : 646 642 1,330 1,305 859 838 98 TN : 124 111 1,070 1,090 133 121 91 TX : 401 395 1,095 1,090 439 431 98 VT : 158 155 1,315 1,325 208 205 99 VA : 129 126 1,200 1,135 155 143 92 WA : 268 265 1,620 1,650 434 437 101 WI : 1,485 1,435 1,250 1,255 1,856 1,801 97 : 22 State: Total : 8,061 7,957 1,331 1,337 10,729 10,640 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Arizona Monthly Milk Production Estimates, 1994-96 Year/Month Milk Cows Milk per Cow Milk Production 1994 (000) Pounds Million Pounds Jan 107 1,710 183 Feb 111 1,570 174 Mar 116 1,725 200 Apr 119 1,630 194 May 121 1,635 198 Jun 121 1,465 177 Jul 123 1,335 164 Aug 118 1,295 153 Sep 114 1,360 155 Oct 114 1,525 174 Nov 114 1,535 175 Dec 115 1,625 187 Annual 116 18,397 2,134 1995 Jan 116 1,655 192 Feb 113 1,635 185 Mar 111 1,920 213 Apr 114 1,790 204 May 115 1,780 205 Jun 117 1,605 188 Jul 117 1,485 174 Aug 115 1,365 157 Sep 111 1,415 157 Oct 111 1,615 179 Nov 112 1,600 179 Dec 116 1,700 197 Annual 114 19,561 2,230 1996 Jan 118 1,755 207 Feb 118 1,730 204 Mar 118 1,930 228 Apr 118 1,875 221 May 119 1,850 220 Jun 121 1,630 197 Jul 122 1,400 171 Aug 120 1,415 170 Sep 116 1,500 174 Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value By State and United States, October 1, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate State : Fed Daily per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows :------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- -------- Dollars -------- : AL : 18.6 16.7 8.40 10.50 AK : 19.5 19.5 13.80 14.50 AZ : 21.6 21.0 7.80 8.70 AR : 17.5 17.7 8.20 9.95* CA : 20.5 20.0 8.00 9.00 CO : 22.5 20.5 7.20 9.50 CT : 17.0 17.5 9.10 11.55 DE : 16.3 13.2 8.80 9.70 FL : 24.0 25.0 7.80 8.40 GA : 22.9 22.0 7.90 9.90 ID : 21.0 21.5 7.30 8.30 IL : 17.1 16.1 7.90 9.15 IN : 17.0 16.6 7.60 10.35 IA : 16.4 17.2 6.50 9.90 KS : 19.0 18.0 7.50 9.25* KY : 16.4 16.1 8.65 10.50 LA : 19.0 18.5 8.35 10.30* ME : 17.0 15.5 8.90 11.60 MD : 14.4 13.0 8.35 10.20 MA : 15.5 16.0 8.95 11.65 MI : 18.5 18.5 7.30 8.75 MN : 17.3 15.7 7.80 9.00 MS : 17.4 17.6 8.20 9.80 MO : 18.5 17.0 8.00 10.00 MT : 16.2 16.5 7.25 8.40 NE : 16.5 16.2 7.30 8.30 NV : 21.0 21.0 8.20 10.50 NH : 16.0 17.0 8.80 11.20 NJ : 14.9 14.5 8.60 12.45* NM : 26.0 26.0 6.60 7.80 NY : 15.3 14.8 9.00 11.70 NC : 17.5 17.7 8.95 10.90 ND : 16.5 15.0 6.30 7.10 OH : 16.3 17.5 8.10 10.10 OK : 18.0 18.8 8.40 9.50* OR : 20.0 18.6 9.30 10.50 PA : 16.0 16.2 9.80 11.00 RI : 16.0 15.0 9.05 11.00 SC : 20.0 22.0 8.00 9.65 SD : 17.0 16.5 6.75 8.20 TN : 16.0 17.0 9.00 11.10 TX : 22.2 20.1 7.90 9.40 UT : 16.9 16.4 7.70 9.20 VT : 16.0 15.0 8.90 11.40 VA : 16.0 14.5 8.90 10.10 WA : 20.0 20.0 8.20 9.65 WV : 14.0 14.0 9.05 10.70* WI : 17.1 16.0 7.20 8.70 WY : 13.0 13.4 6.50 7.80 : US : 18.4 18.0 7.97 9.51* * Correction Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement he mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.35 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 224,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :----------------------------------------- : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.9 1.6 605 286 157 538 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.4 224 117 15 179 10 0 Cows : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on December 13, 1996. 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