HDR1012000160031213961500Milk Production Released December 13, 1996, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. November Milk Production Up Slightly Milk production in the 22 major States during November totaled 10.6 billion pounds, slightly above production in these same States in November 1995. October revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was virtually unchanged from October 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,339 pounds for November, 19 pounds above November 1995. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.94 million head, 104,000 head less than November 1995 and 14,000 head less than October 1996. This is the sixteenth consecutive month of decline. During the July-September period, the 22 major States produced 32.8 billion pounds of milk, 86.7 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.3 billion pounds for November 1996. **** Note: Nass is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk production estimating program starting January 1997. The last major change was in 1986. We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding Arizona. On page 5 is a table showing Arizona monthly data, starting in 1994. Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994. Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996 for the 20 State monthly total. The 20 States in the monthly estimating program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,375 4,276 4,236 40,520 39,706 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 9,343 4,049 4,043 38,325 37,778 99 Oct-Dec : 9,432 4,014 37,857 : Annual : 9,461 16,451 155,644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 Aug : 8,062 7,969 1,375 1,377 11,086 10,970 99 Sep : 8,061 7,957 1,331 1,337 10,729 10,640 99 Oct : 8,050 7,953 1,364 1,380 10,978 10,977 100 Nov : 8,043 7,939 1,320 1,339 10,616 10,634 100 Dec : 8,034 1,380 11,088 : Annual : 8,054 16,668 134,247 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,258 1,266 1,615 1,670 2,032 2,114 104 FL : 155 156 1,160 1,200 180 187 104 ID : 242 267 1,470 1,510 356 403 113 IL : 162 153 1,250 1,290 203 197 97 IN : 143 140 1,240 1,240 177 174 98 IA : 250 250 1,310 1,260 328 315 96 KY : 159 151 960 960 153 145 95 MD : 91 85 1,175 1,230 107 105 98 MI : 326 325 1,340 1,360 437 442 101 MN : 600 595 1,220 1,235 732 735 100 MO : 186 175 1,100 1,095 205 192 94 NM : 196 195 1,460 1,530 286 298 104 NY : 702 700 1,335 1,280 937 896 96 NC : 86 79 1,290 1,290 111 102 92 OH : 287 285 1,270 1,230 364 351 96 PA : 647 642 1,310 1,310 848 841 99 TN : 123 110 1,090 1,130 134 124 93 TX : 400 395 1,200 1,205 480 476 99 VT : 158 155 1,280 1,280 202 198 98 VA : 128 126 1,205 1,175 154 148 96 WA : 264 266 1,570 1,600 414 426 103 WI : 1,480 1,423 1,200 1,240 1,776 1,765 99 : 22 State: Total : 8,043 7,939 1,320 1,339 10,616 10,634 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,257 1,265 1,690 1,755 2,124 2,220 105 FL : 157 156 1,050 1,155 165 180 109 ID : 240 265 1,530 1,570 367 416 113 IL : 162 157 1,250 1,310 203 206 101 IN : 143 140 1,280 1,280 183 179 98 IA : 250 250 1,330 1,280 333 320 96 KY : 161 151 1,000 1,000 161 151 94 MD : 91 85 1,185 1,250 108 106 98 MI : 326 326 1,400 1,405 456 458 100 MN : 600 595 1,260 1,270 756 756 100 MO : 187 175 1,105 1,075 207 188 91 NM : 196 195 1,510 1,570 296 306 103 NY : 702 702 1,365 1,330 958 934 97 NC : 86 79 1,280 1,320 110 104 95 OH : 287 285 1,300 1,260 373 359 96 PA : 647 645 1,375 1,345 890 868 98 TN : 123 111 1,120 1,120 138 124 90 TX : 401 395 1,200 1,185 481 468 97 VT : 158 154 1,340 1,350 212 208 98 VA : 128 126 1,240 1,190 159 150 94 WA : 266 266 1,645 1,675 438 446 102 WI : 1,482 1,430 1,255 1,280 1,860 1,830 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,050 7,953 1,364 1,380 10,978 10,977 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.35 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 224,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.9 1.6 605 286 157 538 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.4 224 117 15 179 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on January 15, 1997. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, and marital or familial status. Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA Office of Communications at (202) 720-5881 (voice) or (202) 720-7808 (TDD). To file a complaint, write the Secretary of Agriculture, USDA, Washington, D.C., 20250, or call (202) 720-7327 (voice) or (202) 720-1127 (TDD). USDA is an equal employment opportunity employer. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are now available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and select: 1. Worldwide Web: http://www.usda.gov/nass/ OR 2. For Gopher/Telenet/FTP access: HOST=usda.mannlib.cornell.edu OR 3. For a subscription direct to your e-mail address, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu and in the body of the message type the word: list AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 1-800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call l-703-834-0125 FAX: 1-703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97