HDR1012000160030115971500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. For assistance with general agricultural statistics, information about NASS, its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 1-800-727-9540 or E-mail: NASS@NASS.USDA.GOV. The "Milk Production" U.S. Summary is available on AutoFax, (202) 720-2000, report 5200. December Milk Production Down Slightly Milk production in the 22 major States during December totaled 11.1 billion pounds, slightly below production in these same States in December 1995. November revised production, at 10.7 billion pounds was slightly above November 1995. During 1996, milk production was 1.2 billion pounds less than 1995. On a daily basis, 1996 production averaged 4.4 million pounds per day less than 1995. Production per cow in the 22 major States averaged 1,394 pounds for December, 14 pounds above December 1995. The number of cows on farms in the 22 major States was 7.94 million head, 97,000 head less than December 1995 and 6,000 head less than November 1996. This is the seventeenth consecutive month of decline. The number of cows on farms averaged 101,000 less during 1996 when compared to 1995. The number of milk cows on farms was the lowest on record. During the October-December period, the 22 major States produced 32.7 billion pounds of milk, 86.4 percent of the U.S. production. If the remaining 28 States not surveyed monthly followed the same pattern as the 22 States, the U.S. production would be 12.7 billion pounds for October 1996, 12.4 billion pounds for November 1996, 12.8 billion pounds for December 1996. U.S. October-December Milk Production Up Slightly The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 37.9 billion pounds, slightly above the October-December period in 1995. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.32 million head 114,000 less than the same period a year earlier. Grain and Other Concentrates Fed Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on January 1, 1997, averaged 19.2 pounds per cow, 0.4 pound more than January 1, 1996. Value of Grain and Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to cows on January 1, averaged $8.79 per hundredweight, $.28 more than January 1, 1996. **** NASS is planning to change the States that are included in the monthly milk production estimating program starting January 1997. The last major change was in 1986. We plan to drop Maryland, North Carolina, and Tennessee while adding Arizona. Historic monthly estimates have been created for Arizona back to 1994. Therefore, data users will have a comparable data set for 1994, 1995, and 1996 for the 20 State monthly total. The 20 States in the monthly estimating program account for 85 percent of the U.S. milk production. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,470 9,402 4,112 4,160 38,941 39,111 100 Apr-Jun : 9,477 9,375 4,276 4,236 40,520 39,706 98 Jul-Sep : 9,465 9,344 4,049 4,041 38,325 37,759 99 Oct-Dec : 9,432 9,318 4,014 4,064 37,857 37,868 100 : Annual : 9,461 9,360 16,451 16,501 155,644 154,445 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 22 Selected States, 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,046 8,026 1,404 1,406 11,296 11,285 100 Feb : 8,050 8,010 1,295 1,338 10,423 10,719 103 Mar : 8,061 7,998 1,453 1,459 11,709 11,671 100 Apr : 8,058 7,988 1,427 1,434 11,501 11,451 100 May : 8,056 7,987 1,484 1,470 11,959 11,740 98 Jun : 8,066 7,984 1,421 1,387 11,465 11,075 97 Jul : 8,062 7,977 1,414 1,397 11,397 11,142 98 Aug : 8,062 7,969 1,375 1,377 11,086 10,970 99 Sep : 8,061 7,957 1,331 1,337 10,729 10,640 99 Oct : 8,050 7,953 1,364 1,380 10,978 10,977 100 Nov : 8,043 7,943 1,320 1,342 10,616 10,662 100 Dec : 8,034 7,937 1,380 1,394 11,088 11,063 100 : Annual : 8,054 7,977 16,668 16,722 134,247 133,395 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,259 1,268 1,665 1,700 2,096 2,156 103 FL : 155 158 1,300 1,300 202 205 101 ID : 244 267 1,500 1,540 366 411 112 IL : 162 152 1,300 1,350 211 205 97 IN : 140 139 1,280 1,300 179 181 101 IA : 250 250 1,315 1,325 329 331 101 KY : 158 151 1,030 1,020 163 154 94 MD : 91 85 1,250 1,290 114 110 96 MI : 326 324 1,400 1,430 456 463 102 MN : 600 595 1,315 1,345 789 800 101 MO : 186 175 1,160 1,100 216 193 89 NM : 194 197 1,550 1,630 301 321 107 NY : 702 700 1,380 1,310 969 917 95 NC : 86 78 1,330 1,385 114 108 95 OH : 287 286 1,310 1,310 376 375 100 PA : 647 643 1,370 1,365 886 878 99 TN : 120 113 1,180 1,210 142 137 96 TX : 400 390 1,310 1,325 524 517 99 VT : 157 156 1,350 1,340 212 209 99 VA : 128 126 1,250 1,230 160 155 97 WA : 264 266 1,620 1,640 428 436 102 WI : 1,478 1,418 1,255 1,270 1,855 1,801 97 : 22 State: Total : 8,034 7,937 1,380 1,394 11,088 11,063 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1995-96 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1996 as : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : % of : : : : : : : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : CA : 1,258 1,268 1,615 1,710 2,032 2,168 107 FL : 155 157 1,160 1,230 180 193 107 ID : 242 266 1,470 1,500 356 399 112 IL : 162 153 1,250 1,290 203 197 97 IN : 143 140 1,240 1,250 177 175 99 IA : 250 250 1,310 1,260 328 315 96 KY : 159 151 960 960 153 145 95 MD : 91 85 1,175 1,230 107 105 98 MI : 326 325 1,340 1,360 437 442 101 MN : 600 595 1,220 1,250 732 744 102 MO : 186 175 1,100 1,055 205 185 90 NM : 196 195 1,460 1,565 286 305 107 NY : 702 700 1,335 1,260 937 882 94 NC : 86 79 1,290 1,290 111 102 92 OH : 287 285 1,270 1,230 364 351 96 PA : 647 642 1,310 1,310 848 841 99 TN : 123 112 1,090 1,150 134 129 96 TX : 400 395 1,200 1,205 480 476 99 VT : 158 155 1,280 1,285 202 199 99 VA : 128 126 1,205 1,170 154 147 95 WA : 264 266 1,570 1,600 414 426 103 WI : 1,480 1,423 1,200 1,220 1,776 1,736 98 : 22 State: Total : 8,043 7,943 1,320 1,342 10,616 10,662 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1996 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Revised July-September 1995-1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : 1996 State :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 33 31 101 88 87 AK : 0.7 0.8 3.05 3.56 117 AZ : 114 120 488 515 106 AR : 60 56 174 162 93 CA : 1,255 1,263 6,400 6,447 101 CO : 82 83 385 411 107 CT : 31 30 126 118 94 DE : 10 10 32.9 33.4 102 FL : 162 156 518 512 99 GA : 100 97 339 322 95 HI : 10.2 9.3 34.5 32.4 94 ID : 236 260 1,103 1,251 113 IL : 162 158 625 619 99 IN : 143 140 546 529 97 IA : 250 250 1,009 955 95 KS : 82 80 275 280 102 KY : 162 151 487 436 90 LA : 79 77 194 177 91 ME : 40 40 163 163 100 MD : 92 86 311 317 102 MA : 28 27 112 109 97 MI : 326 327 1,394 1,365 98 MN : 600 600 2,289 2,295 100 MS : 54 50 153 142 93 MO : 188 176 625 568 91 MT : 21 20 80 78 98 NE : 74 69 274 255 93 NV : 23 25.5 105.8 119.9 113 NH : 20 19 81 79 98 NJ : 23 23 77 71 92 NM : 198 196 910 919 101 NY : 701 703 2,916 2,861 98 NC : 86 81 326 301 92 ND : 64 62 212 198 93 OH : 289 285 1,118 1,073 96 OK : 96 96 317 300 95 OR : 97 93 424 404 95 PA : 643 642 2,604 2,594 100 RI : 2.1 1.9 7.9 7.5 95 SC : 26 26 85 85 100 SD : 118 112 404 370 92 TN : 124 112 401 360 90 TX : 402 397 1,365 1,337 98 UT : 88 92 379 401 106 VT : 158 157 637 630 99 VA : 129 126 465 430 92 WA : 269 264 1,361 1,351 99 WV : 21 20 65 60 92 WI : 1,488 1,440 5,802 5,602 97 WY : 6 6.2 21 22.3 106 : US 3/ : 9,465 9,344 38,325 37,759 99 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Preliminary October-December 1995-96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : 1996 State :------------------------------------------------------------: as % of : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 : 1996 : 1995 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 32 31 112 102 91 AK : 0.7 0.8 3.07 3.52 115 AZ : 113 120 555 593 107 AR : 59 56 174 165 95 CA : 1,258 1,267 6,252 6,544 105 CO : 82 84 389 413 106 CT : 31 29 129 116 90 DE : 10 10.4 36.2 39.3 109 FL : 156 157 547 578 106 GA : 98 98 363 364 100 HI : 10.3 9.6 31.3 27.8 89 ID : 242 266 1,089 1,226 113 IL : 162 154 617 608 99 IN : 142 140 539 535 99 IA : 250 250 990 966 98 KS : 83 81 295 305 103 KY : 159 151 477 450 94 LA : 79 78 210 204 97 ME : 39 39 156 157 101 MD : 91 85 329 321 98 MA : 27 27 110 106 96 MI : 326 325 1,349 1,363 101 MN : 600 595 2,277 2,300 101 MS : 53 49 161 158 98 MO : 186 175 628 566 90 MT : 20 20 77 77 100 NE : 72 69 273 264 97 NV : 23 25.5 103.2 119.9 116 NH : 20 18 82 74 90 NJ : 23 23 76 71 93 NM : 195 196 883 932 106 NY : 702 701 2,864 2,733 95 NC : 86 79 335 314 94 ND : 63 62 198 187 94 OH : 287 285 1,113 1,085 97 OK : 97 95 320 300 94 OR : 96 93 400 388 97 PA : 647 643 2,624 2,587 99 RI : 2.1 1.9 7.9 7.7 97 SC : 26 26 94 97 103 SD : 116 110 371 352 95 TN : 122 112 414 390 94 TX : 400 393 1,485 1,461 98 UT : 88 92 363 392 108 VT : 158 155 626 616 98 VA : 128 126 473 452 96 WA : 265 266 1,280 1,308 102 WV : 21 19 64 60 94 WI : 1,480 1,424 5,491 5,367 98 WY : 5.9 6.2 21.5 22.9 107 : US 3/ : 9,432 9,318 37,857 37,868 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value By State and United States, January 1, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate State : Fed Daily per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows :------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- -------- Dollars -------- : AL : 18.9 19.4 9.60 9.80 AK : 19.5 19.5 13.80 14.60 AZ : 22.0 24.0 8.75 8.25 AR : 17.9 18.6 9.05 9.40 CA : 20.0 20.5 8.70 8.50 CO : 22.0 20.9 8.20 7.90 CT : 17.5 17.5 10.20 11.00 DE : 16.3 16.3 8.80 8.70 FL : 23.0 28.0 8.30 7.70 GA : 23.3 24.0 9.10 9.40 ID : 24.0 24.0 7.80 7.70 IL : 17.6 17.2 8.45 9.00 IN : 16.9 16.9 8.15 9.40 IA : 17.3 16.8 7.70 7.90 KS : 20.0 19.0 8.50 8.00 KY : 16.3 17.2 9.35 10.00 LA : 20.0 19.0 9.15 9.90 ME : 16.0 15.5 10.20 10.90 MD : 16.2 16.4 8.80 8.90 MA : 16.0 17.0 10.20 10.95 MI : 18.5 18.5 7.80 7.80 MN : 17.4 17.3 8.20 9.00 MS : 17.1 18.1 8.80 9.70 MO : 19.0 19.0 8.80 8.60 MT : 18.0 17.7 7.80 8.40 NE : 16.9 16.9 7.90 7.90 NV : 20.0 21.9 8.80 9.75 NH : 16.5 16.5 10.00 10.85 NJ : 14.2 14.4 9.15 11.75 NM : 26.0 27.0 7.60 7.50 NY : 15.4 14.8 9.90 10.60 NC : 18.3 18.7 9.90 10.10 ND : 16.2 16.5 7.05 6.45 OH : 16.8 17.7 8.80 9.10 OK : 20.0 20.5 8.50 9.00 OR : 20.0 18.5 9.40 9.70 PA : 16.8 18.0 9.90 10.20 RI : 15.0 15.5 10.50 11.00 SC : 19.0 22.5 8.95 9.15 SD : 16.0 17.9 7.40 7.10 TN : 16.0 18.0 10.00 10.60 TX : 23.1 21.6 8.60 9.30 UT : 17.7 17.1 8.40 8.35 VT : 16.0 17.0 10.20 10.65 VA : 16.7 15.0 9.60 11.00 WA : 19.5 21.0 8.90 9.30 WV : 14.0 14.5 9.70 10.80 WI : 17.9 18.1 7.60 7.50 WY : 14.1 13.4 7.70 7.50 : US : 18.8 19.2 8.51 8.79 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture, conducted by the Department of Commerce, are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.32 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 214,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.8 1.4 530 218 22 565 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.3 214 123 42 195 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on February 14, 1997. 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Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high-valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm Agricultural Outlook Forum 97