HDR1012000160030313971500MILK PRODUCTION Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Kevin Hintzman at (202) 720-4448, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Down 2 Percent, Up 2 Percent on a Daily Basis Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.4 billion pounds, 2 percent below production in these same States in February 1996. The monthly decrease is due to 1996 being a leap year with February 1996 having 29 days. On a daily basis, February 1997 production increased 2 percent versus February 1996. January revised production, at 11.2 billion pounds was 1 percent above January 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,337 pounds for February, 10 pounds below February 1996. Again, the leap year in 1996 caused the monthly rate decline. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 81,000 head less than February 1996 and 10,000 head less than January 1996. Note: A new table with U.S. milk production by month is published beginning this month. U.S. estimates are based on data from the 20 major States. The estimates are created by dividing the 20 State estimate by the percentage of the U.S. total for the same quarter, previous year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : 1997 as : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : % of : : : : : : : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 4,155 39,042 Apr-Jun : 9,369 4,229 39,621 Jul-Sep : 9,338 4,033 37,658 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,080 37,947 : Annual : 9,351 16,498 154,268 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1997 as : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : % of : : : : : : : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,100 11,163 101 Feb : 7,828 7,747 1,347 1,337 10,545 10,355 98 Mar : 7,822 1,468 11,483 Apr : 7,818 1,440 11,260 May : 7,816 1,478 11,554 Jun : 7,818 1,397 10,920 Jul : 7,815 1,400 10,939 Aug : 7,802 1,382 10,780 Sep : 7,795 1,341 10,454 Oct : 7,788 1,390 10,825 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,493 Dec : 7,765 1,417 11,006 : Annual : 7,807 16,825 131,359 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : by Month : Cumulative :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : 1997 as : : : 1997 as : 1996 : 1997 : % of : 1996 : 1997 : % of : : : 1996 : : : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,082 13,156 101 13,082 13,156 101 Feb : 12,427 12,204 98 25,509 25,360 99 Mar : 13,533 39,042 Apr : 13,225 52,267 May : 13,570 65,837 Jun : 12,826 78,663 Jul : 12,804 91,467 Aug : 12,618 104,085 Sep : 12,236 116,321 Oct : 12,708 129,029 Nov : 12,318 141,347 Dec : 12,921 154,268 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1997 as : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : % of : : : : : : : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 118 124 1,735 1,840 205 228 111 CA : 1,260 1,271 1,585 1,630 1,997 2,072 104 FL : 155 159 1,405 1,445 218 230 106 ID : 246 268 1,370 1,370 337 367 109 IL : 157 149 1,260 1,270 198 189 95 IN : 140 140 1,260 1,180 176 165 94 IA : 250 250 1,180 1,180 295 295 100 KY : 157 150 980 965 154 145 94 MI : 322 310 1,365 1,370 440 425 97 MN : 600 590 1,285 1,250 771 738 96 MO : 183 175 1,125 1,080 206 189 92 NM : 193 197 1,520 1,575 293 310 106 NY : 700 700 1,340 1,250 938 875 93 OH : 285 285 1,290 1,260 368 359 98 PA : 645 639 1,345 1,290 868 824 95 TX : 400 390 1,345 1,295 538 505 94 VT : 157 156 1,320 1,305 207 204 99 VA : 127 124 1,165 1,180 148 146 99 WA : 263 266 1,530 1,520 402 404 100 WI : 1,470 1,404 1,215 1,200 1,786 1,685 94 : 20 State: Total : 7,828 7,747 1,347 1,337 10,545 10,355 98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1996-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : 1997 as : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : % of : : : : : : : 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 118 122 1,765 1,820 208 222 107 CA : 1,260 1,270 1,675 1,720 2,111 2,184 103 FL : 155 159 1,405 1,515 218 241 111 ID : 245 268 1,490 1,500 365 402 110 IL : 158 149 1,300 1,290 205 192 94 IN : 140 140 1,290 1,320 181 185 102 IA : 250 250 1,260 1,300 315 325 103 KY : 159 150 1,025 1,065 163 160 98 MI : 325 311 1,425 1,480 463 460 99 MN : 600 595 1,360 1,360 816 809 99 MO : 185 175 1,175 1,210 217 212 98 NM : 193 197 1,570 1,675 303 330 109 NY : 700 700 1,400 1,380 980 966 99 OH : 286 285 1,320 1,335 378 380 101 PA : 648 641 1,405 1,385 910 888 98 TX : 400 390 1,380 1,390 552 542 98 VT : 158 156 1,385 1,375 219 215 98 VA : 128 125 1,235 1,270 158 159 101 WA : 263 266 1,655 1,650 435 439 101 WI : 1,475 1,408 1,290 1,315 1,903 1,852 97 : 20 State: Total : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,100 11,163 101 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.30 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 121,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.5 percent, or about 233,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.8 1.5 569 229 22 565 10 0 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.3 2.5 233 123 42 195 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on April 15, 1997. 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