HDR1012000160030613971500Milk Production Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 13, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Production Up 2.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent from production in these same States in May 1996. April revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was up 1.7 percent from April 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,526 pounds for May, 47 pounds above May 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 84,000 head less than May 1996 but 1,000 head more than April 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,265 4,156 4,198 39,053 38,896 -0.4 Apr-Jun : 9,369 4,231 39,638 Jul-Sep : 9,338 4,035 37,674 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 0.5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,732 1,479 1,526 11,560 11,798 2.1 Jun : 7,818 1,398 10,926 Jul : 7,815 1,400 10,944 Aug : 7,802 1,382 10,786 Sep : 7,795 1,342 10,459 Oct : 7,788 1,391 10,831 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,499 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : by Month Cumulative :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : 1996 : 1997 : % Change : : :from 1996: : : from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Million Pounds : Jan : 13,085 13,129 0.3 13,085 13,129 0.3 Feb : 12,431 12,125 -2.5 25,516 25,254 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,642 0.8 39,053 38,896 -0.4 Apr : 13,230 13,449 1.7 52,283 52,345 0.1 May : 13,576 13,856 2.1 65,859 66,201 0.5 Jun : 12,832 78,691 Jul : 12,809 91,500 Aug : 12,624 104,124 Sep : 12,241 116,365 Oct : 12,714 129,079 Nov : 12,324 141,403 Dec : 12,928 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds : AZ : 119 128 1,905 1,915 227 245 7.9 CA : 1,262 1,284 1,770 1,885 2,234 2,420 8.3 FL : 157 162 1,380 1,430 217 232 6.9 ID : 252 266 1,590 1,650 401 439 9.5 IL : 155 148 1,320 1,350 205 200 -2.4 IN : 140 140 1,350 1,380 189 193 2.1 IA : 249 247 1,330 1,400 331 346 4.5 KY : 155 145 1,085 1,170 168 170 1.2 MI : 322 308 1,470 1,540 473 474 0.2 MN : 595 585 1,395 1,395 830 816 -1.7 MO : 182 173 1,255 1,295 228 224 -1.8 NM : 194 200 1,735 1,750 337 350 3.9 NY : 703 698 1,450 1,430 1,019 998 -2.1 OH : 285 283 1,360 1,380 388 391 0.8 PA : 643 639 1,460 1,480 939 946 0.7 TX : 400 389 1,425 1,375 570 535 -6.1 VT : 155 156 1,445 1,415 224 221 -1.3 VA : 126 122 1,245 1,330 157 162 3.2 WA : 262 266 1,750 1,775 459 472 2.8 WI : 1,460 1,393 1,345 1,410 1,964 1,964 0.0 : 20 State: Total : 7,816 7,732 1,479 1,526 11,560 11,798 2.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1996-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds : AZ : 119 127 1,905 1,975 227 251 10.6 CA : 1,261 1,280 1,720 1,845 2,169 2,362 8.9 FL : 157 162 1,410 1,455 221 236 6.8 ID : 249 265 1,490 1,550 371 411 10.8 IL : 156 148 1,320 1,350 206 200 -2.9 IN : 140 140 1,320 1,310 185 183 -1.1 IA : 250 248 1,280 1,350 320 335 4.7 KY : 156 145 1,075 1,145 168 166 -1.2 MI : 322 306 1,440 1,485 464 454 -2.2 MN : 595 590 1,350 1,335 803 788 -1.9 MO : 183 174 1,260 1,270 231 221 -4.3 NM : 193 199 1,670 1,705 322 339 5.3 NY : 700 698 1,420 1,400 994 977 -1.7 OH : 285 283 1,340 1,325 382 375 -1.8 PA : 643 639 1,435 1,445 923 923 0.0 TX : 400 389 1,445 1,390 578 541 -6.4 VT : 155 155 1,405 1,400 218 217 -0.5 VA : 127 123 1,240 1,300 157 160 1.9 WA : 262 265 1,665 1,700 436 451 3.4 WI : 1,465 1,395 1,290 1,335 1,890 1,862 -1.5 : 20 State: Total : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.27 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 185,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.5 .9 349 169 30 315 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.0 185 91 5 187 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on July 15, 1997. 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