HDR1012000160030715971500Milk Production Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. June Production Up 3.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 11.4 billion pounds, up 3.9 percent from production in these same States in June 1996. May revised production, at 11.8 billion pounds was up 2.5 percent from May 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,468 pounds for June, 70 pounds above June 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 82,000 head less than June 1996 but 3,000 head more than May 1997. April-June Production Up 2.4 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.6 billion pounds, 2.4 percent above the April-June period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the April-June quarter was 9.25 million head, 117,000 head less than the same period last year. Grain and Other Concentrates Fed Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on July 1, 1997 averaged 19.0 pounds up 0.7 pounds from July 1, 1996, but down 0.5 pounds from April 1, 1997. Value of Grain and Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on July 1, 1997 averaged $8.73 per hundredweight, $1.14 less than July 1, 1997. ******* Note: Annual feed comsumption data in this report. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,252 4,231 4,386 39,638 40,577 2.4 Jul-Sep : 9,338 4,035 37,674 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 0.5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,736 1,398 1,468 10,926 11,357 3.9 Jul : 7,815 1,400 10,944 Aug : 7,802 1,382 10,786 Sep : 7,795 1,342 10,459 Oct : 7,788 1,391 10,831 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,499 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : by Month Cumulative :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : Change : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : :from 1996: : : from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 0.4 13,085 13,133 0.4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 0.9 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr : 13,230 13,409 1.4 52,283 52,331 0.1 May : 13,576 13,871 2.2 65,859 66,202 0.5 Jun : 12,832 13,297 3.6 78,691 79,499 1.0 Jul : 12,809 91,500 Aug : 12,624 104,124 Sep : 12,241 116,365 Oct : 12,714 129,079 Nov : 12,324 141,403 Dec : 12,928 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 120 128 1,700 1,750 204 224 9.8 CA : 1,263 1,288 1,695 1,795 2,141 2,312 8.0 FL : 156 161 1,235 1,350 193 217 12.4 ID : 255 269 1,570 1,660 400 447 11.8 IL : 154 148 1,240 1,320 191 195 2.1 IN : 140 140 1,270 1,330 178 186 4.5 IA : 249 246 1,285 1,375 320 338 5.6 KY : 153 145 940 1,075 144 156 8.3 MI : 322 310 1,385 1,490 446 462 3.6 MN : 600 585 1,335 1,365 801 799 -0.2 MO : 180 173 1,050 1,185 189 205 8.5 NM : 194 200 1,630 1,685 316 337 6.6 NY : 704 698 1,385 1,410 975 984 0.9 OH : 285 281 1,240 1,310 353 368 4.2 PA : 643 639 1,360 1,405 874 898 2.7 TX : 400 389 1,230 1,205 492 469 -4.7 VT : 157 157 1,425 1,405 224 221 -1.3 VA : 126 122 1,105 1,215 139 148 6.5 WA : 262 265 1,705 1,720 447 456 2.0 WI : 1,455 1,392 1,305 1,390 1,899 1,935 1.9 : 20 State: Total : 7,818 7,736 1,398 1,468 10,926 11,357 3.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1996-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 119 128 1,905 1,915 227 245 7.9 CA : 1,262 1,284 1,770 1,885 2,234 2,420 8.3 FL : 157 162 1,380 1,430 217 232 6.9 ID : 252 267 1,590 1,670 401 446 11.2 IL : 155 148 1,320 1,350 205 200 -2.4 IN : 140 140 1,350 1,380 189 193 2.1 IA : 249 247 1,330 1,400 331 346 4.5 KY : 155 145 1,085 1,170 168 170 1.2 MI : 322 308 1,470 1,540 473 474 0.2 MN : 595 585 1,395 1,415 830 828 -0.2 MO : 182 173 1,255 1,310 228 227 -0.4 NM : 194 200 1,735 1,760 337 352 4.5 NY : 703 698 1,450 1,460 1,019 1,019 0.0 OH : 285 283 1,360 1,380 388 391 0.8 PA : 643 639 1,460 1,480 939 946 0.7 TX : 400 389 1,425 1,370 570 533 -6.5 VT : 155 156 1,445 1,450 224 226 0.9 VA : 126 122 1,245 1,345 157 164 4.5 WA : 262 266 1,750 1,770 459 471 2.6 WI : 1,460 1,393 1,345 1,410 1,964 1,964 0.0 : 20 State: Total : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Revised January-March 1996-1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : State :------------------------------------------------------------: Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 32 31 127 115 -9.4 AK : 0.8 0.8 3.1 3.52 13.5 AZ : 118 124 653 709 8.6 AR : 59 56 186 176 -5.4 CA : 1,260 1,273 6,282 6,574 4.6 CO : 83 85 396 422 6.6 CT : 31 29 133 123 -7.5 DE : 9.7 10.5 37.4 41 9.6 FL : 155 160 666 716 7.5 GA : 97 97 412 412 0.0 HI : 9.6 9.5 33.4 31.7 -5.1 ID : 246 266 1073 1,173 9.3 IL : 157 149 610 582 -4.6 IN : 140 140 550 533 -3.1 IA : 250 249 934 960 2.8 KS : 85 82 310 330 6.5 KY : 157 149 485 469 -3.3 LA : 78 78 233 223 -4.3 ME : 40 39 161 162 0.6 MD : 89 86 338 340 0.6 MA : 27 26 111 107 -3.6 MI : 323 309 1,380 1,350 -2.2 MN : 598 592 2,420 2,361 -2.4 MS : 53 48 182 183 0.5 MO : 184 174 651 600 -7.8 MT : 20 19 75 74 -1.3 NE : 69 69 268 265 -1.1 NV : 24 26 107 117 9.3 NH : 20 19 85 82 -3.5 NJ : 23 21 78 75 -3.8 NM : 193 198 919 981 6.7 NY : 700 700 2,940 2,835 -3.6 NC : 83 77 344 325 -5.5 ND : 63 59 208 183 -12.0 OH : 285 284 1,139 1,124 -1.3 OK : 97 97 325 325 0.0 OR : 94 92 394 386 -2.0 PA : 646 640 2,723 2,651 -2.6 RI : 2.1 2 8 8.2 2.5 SC : 26 26 105 107 1.9 SD : 113 106 375 339 -9.6 TN : 119 114 433 422 -2.5 TX : 400 390 1,682 1,611 -4.2 UT : 90 92 358 376 5.0 VT : 157 155 650 636 -2.2 VA : 127 124 467 469 0.4 WA : 263 266 1,278 1,301 1.8 WV : 21 19 68 65 -4.4 WI : 1,472 1,404 5,637 5,448 -3.4 WY : 6 6.1 20.4 20.7 1.5 : US 3/ : 9,397 9,267 39,053 38,922 -0.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States Preliminary April-June 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : State :------------------------------------------------------------: Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- -- Million Pounds -- Percent : AL : 32 31 115 110 -4.3 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.33 3.77 13.2 AZ : 119 128 658 720 9.4 AR : 58 56 174 174 0.0 CA : 1,262 1,284 6,544 7,094 8.4 CO : 84 85 413 435 5.3 CT : 30 29 128 124 -3.1 DE : 9.5 10.9 36.3 42.7 17.6 FL : 157 162 631 685 8.6 GA : 96 97 382 392 2.6 HI : 9.3 9.1 34.6 33.2 -4.0 ID : 252 267 1172 1,304 11.3 IL : 155 148 602 595 -1.2 IN : 140 140 552 562 1.8 IA : 249 247 971 1,019 4.9 KS : 83 82 300 330 10.0 KY : 155 145 480 492 2.5 LA : 78 78 222 216 -2.7 ME : 40 40 166 169 1.8 MD : 86 86 336 342 1.8 MA : 27 26 111 109 -1.8 MI : 322 308 1,383 1,390 0.5 MN : 597 587 2,434 2,415 -0.8 MS : 52 47 176 176 0.0 MO : 182 173 648 653 0.8 MT : 20 19 77 78 1.3 NE : 69 70 260 273 5.0 NV : 25 26 119 117 -1.7 NH : 20 19 85 83 -2.4 NJ : 22 21 77 76 -1.3 NM : 194 200 975 1,028 5.4 NY : 702 698 2,988 2,980 -0.3 NC : 81 76 333 316 -5.1 ND : 63 57 214 188 -12.1 OH : 285 282 1,123 1,134 1.0 OK : 98 97 330 330 0.0 OR : 93 92 416 415 -0.2 PA : 643 639 2,736 2,767 1.1 RI : 2 2 8 8.4 5.0 SC : 26 26 96 105 9.4 SD : 112 106 377 357 -5.3 TN : 116 113 415 423 1.9 TX : 400 389 1,640 1,543 -5.9 UT : 92 93 397 407 2.5 VT : 156 156 666 664 -0.3 VA : 126 122 453 472 4.2 WA : 262 265 1,342 1,378 2.7 WV : 20 18 64 67 4.7 WI : 1,460 1,393 5,753 5,761 0.1 WY : 6 6.1 21.3 21.4 0.5 : US 3/ : 9,369 9,252 39,638 40,577 2.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value By State and United States, July 1, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value per 100 Pounds of Concentrate State : Fed Daily per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows :------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- Pounds ----- -------- Dollars -------- : AL : 18.4 19.3 10.90 9.60 AK : 19.5 19.5 14.20 14.80 AZ : 21.5 24.0 9.30 7.50 AR : 17.1 17.4 10.10 9.20 CA : 21.0 21.5 9.30 8.40 CO : 21.0 22.5 9.80 8.10 CT : 17.0 16.0 11.40 10.25 DE : 14.6 15.0 10.20 9.80 FL : 25.0 31.0 8.50 7.20 GA : 21.1 22.0 10.10 8.90 ID : 23.0 23.5 9.10 7.80 IL : 15.4 16.5 10.80 9.40 IN : 16.4 16.6 10.10 8.70 IA : 16.4 15.9 10.20 7.85 KS : 19.0 19.0 10.80 8.90 KY : 14.4 16.7 11.00 9.30 LA : 18.7 18.7 10.70 9.65 ME : 15.5 16.0 11.70 10.75 MD : 14.0 15.8 10.60 10.50 MA : 14.0 14.5 11.40 10.90 MI : 18.0 21.0 9.00 8.60 MN : 16.8 17.1 10.20 8.60 MS : 17.1 17.3 9.60 9.50 MO : 17.5 17.5 9.00 8.30 MT : 17.8 17.2 9.30 8.30 NE : 15.5 15.8 9.40 7.00 NV : 21.0 22.0 10.50 9.50 NH : 14.5 15.5 11.70 10.75 NJ : 14.5 14.6 12.60 11.10 NM : 27.0 26.1 8.30 7.55 NY : 14.5 14.7 11.60 10.70 NC : 17.6 17.9 11.30 10.10 ND : 15.6 15.5 8.10 6.35 OH : 16.5 17.7 10.80 9.70 OK : 18.5 19.1 10.00 8.65 OR : 18.0 18.0 10.00 9.80 PA : 16.5 17.0 10.90 10.20 RI : 14.5 15.0 11.00 10.00 SC : 19.5 21.5 9.60 9.15 SD : 15.3 16.1 8.90 7.10 TN : 16.0 16.0 11.40 10.40 TX : 21.7 21.1 10.20 9.00 UT : 17.3 17.1 9.80 8.50 VT : 15.0 15.5 11.40 10.05 VA : 17.7 16.1 10.20 9.50 WA : 20.0 21.0 9.65 8.90 WV : 13.2 15.0 10.80 10.50 WI : 18.8 16.3 8.85 7.80 WY : 12.7 14.2 8.50 7.00 : US : 18.3 19.0 9.87 8.73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Annually and Value by State and United States, 1995 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Annual Quantity : : : Fed to Milk Cows : Annual Average : Annual Average State :-----------------------------: Value of : Feed Value : Total : Per Cow : Per Cwt : Feed per : per Cwt : : : of Milk : Cwt : of Milk ---------:------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons --- Pounds --- ------- Dollars ------ : AL : 117 6,950 49 8.56 4.19 AK : 3 7,140 42 13.80 5.84 AZ : 468 8,220 42 7.78 3.30 AR : 202 6,710 55 8.79 4.80 CA : 4,691 7,480 37 7.96 2.95 CO : 332 8,040 43 7.18 3.11 CT : 99 6,250 38 9.01 3.43 DE : 30 5,950 41 8.92 3.63 FL : 726 8,970 61 7.43 4.54 GA : 437 8,710 56 7.92 4.40 ID : 949 8,170 45 7.16 3.26 IL : 489 6,090 41 8.10 3.30 IN : 453 6,300 41 7.79 3.21 IA : 790 6,290 39 7.06 2.74 KS : 288 7,050 49 7.52 3.68 KY : 485 5,990 48 8.76 4.20 LA : 268 6,760 59 8.35 4.96 ME : 117 5,930 37 9.09 3.33 MD : 255 5,600 38 8.76 3.32 MA : 80 5,760 36 9.05 3.27 MI : 1,058 6,490 38 7.24 2.77 MN : 1,930 6,440 41 7.58 3.11 MS : 177 6,450 50 8.28 4.11 MO : 661 6,940 49 7.91 3.86 MT : 64 6,150 41 7.33 3.03 NE : 228 6,210 42 7.38 3.07 NV : 88 7,430 41 8.18 3.36 NH : 60 6,030 37 8.94 3.31 NJ : 63 5,430 39 8.69 3.36 NM : 904 9,480 50 6.62 3.31 NY : 1,973 5,610 34 9.24 3.16 NC : 288 6,690 41 9.04 3.73 ND : 194 6,020 46 6.20 2.82 OH : 919 6,370 40 8.30 3.33 OK : 353 7,250 54 8.12 4.39 OR : 353 7,260 42 9.05 3.79 PA : 1,908 5,940 36 9.33 3.38 RI : 6 5,610 38 9.11 3.45 SC : 92 6,950 48 8.03 3.83 SD : 364 6,160 46 6.67 3.06 TN : 394 6,230 45 9.10 4.06 TX : 1,618 8,080 53 7.32 3.87 UT : 287 6,530 39 7.78 3.05 VT : 458 5,840 36 9.01 3.25 VA : 380 5,900 39 8.83 3.40 WA : 1,005 7,570 38 8.18 3.14 WV : 58 5,450 43 9.12 3.92 WI : 4,821 6,470 42 6.98 2.94 WY : 14 4,650 33 6.84 2.29 : US 1/ : 31,997 6,771 41.2 7.88 3.25 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Annually and Value by State and United States, 1996 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Annual Quantity : : : Fed to Milk Cows : Annual Average : Annual Average State :-----------------------------: Value of : Feed Value : Total : Per Cow : Per Cwt : Feed per : per Cwt : : : of Milk : Cwt : of Milk ---------:------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 Tons --- Pounds --- ------- Dollars ------ : AL : 107 6,780 50 10.12 5.04 AK : 3 7,090 42 14.18 5.95 AZ : 459 7,620 37 8.75 3.25 AR : 190 6,630 55 9.68 5.34 CA : 4,652 7,360 36 8.92 3.22 CO : 325 7,780 40 8.86 3.58 CT : 94 6,300 38 10.95 4.18 DE : 27 5,500 38 9.44 3.54 FL : 721 9,230 60 8.18 4.93 GA : 409 8,430 55 9.54 5.27 ID : 1,090 8,510 46 8.20 3.78 IL : 467 6,060 40 9.40 3.77 IN : 434 6,190 40 9.26 3.71 IA : 746 5,970 39 8.72 3.42 KS : 289 7,020 48 9.38 4.49 KY : 457 5,960 49 10.23 5.01 LA : 272 6,980 65 10.06 6.58 ME : 116 5,830 36 11.02 3.92 MD : 238 5,510 36 9.76 3.55 MA : 76 5,660 35 10.88 3.85 MI : 1,086 6,790 40 8.29 3.33 MN : 1,885 6,310 40 9.06 3.59 MS : 169 6,610 51 9.46 4.82 MO : 598 6,680 49 9.04 4.41 MT : 63 6,290 41 8.54 3.54 NE : 210 6,090 40 8.32 3.31 NV : 97 7,710 41 9.69 3.95 NH : 58 5,970 35 10.86 3.85 NJ : 60 5,400 40 11.51 4.58 NM : 953 9,800 51 7.88 4.00 NY : 1,901 5,420 33 10.92 3.63 NC : 270 6,680 42 10.54 4.42 ND : 186 5,970 46 7.22 3.29 OH : 897 6,290 41 9.60 3.93 OK : 344 7,120 55 9.44 5.18 OR : 322 6,920 40 9.82 3.96 PA : 2,021 6,280 38 10.46 3.97 RI : 6 5,460 35 10.72 3.77 SC : 99 7,620 52 9.33 4.81 SD : 338 6,050 46 7.92 3.63 TN : 356 6,130 44 10.76 4.79 TX : 1,620 8,150 53 9.38 4.94 UT : 286 6,290 37 9.19 3.44 VT : 454 5,810 35 10.89 3.81 VA : 362 5,730 40 10.16 4.11 WA : 976 7,400 37 9.36 3.42 WV : 52 5,170 41 10.42 4.28 WI : 4,809 6,640 43 8.21 3.51 WY : 15 4,780 34 7.91 2.72 : US 1/ : 31,665 6,777 41.1 9.17 3.77 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Will not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 194,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.5 1.0 406 172 22 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 194 95 8 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on August 14, 1997. 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