HDR1012000160030814971500Milk Production Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 14, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July Milk Production Up 4.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during July totaled 11.5 billion pounds, up 4.8 percent from production in these same States in July 1996. June revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was up 4.4 percent from June 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,480 pounds for July, 80 pounds above July 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 68,000 head less than July 1996 but 9,000 head more than June 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,253 4,231 4,391 39,638 40,630 2.5 Jul-Sep : 9,338 4,035 37,674 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 0.5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 Jul : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,480 10,944 11,464 4.8 Aug : 7,802 1,382 10,786 Sep : 7,795 1,342 10,459 Oct : 7,788 1,391 10,831 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,499 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production, United States, 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : by Month Cumulative :---------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 :% Change : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : :from 1996: : : from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 0.4 13,085 13,133 0.4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 0.9 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr : 13,230 13,409 1.4 52,283 52,331 0.1 May : 13,576 13,871 2.2 65,859 66,202 0.5 Jun : 12,832 13,350 4.0 78,691 79,552 1.1 Jul : 12,809 13,418 4.8 91,500 92,970 1.6 Aug : 12,624 104,124 Sep : 12,241 116,365 Oct : 12,714 129,079 Nov : 12,324 141,403 Dec : 12,928 154,331 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1996-97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 129 1,445 1,635 176 211 19.9 CA : 1,264 1,296 1,725 1,820 2,180 2,359 8.2 FL : 156 161 1,145 1,190 179 192 7.3 ID : 258 271 1,650 1,710 426 463 8.7 IL : 154 147 1,240 1,320 191 194 1.6 IN : 140 140 1,270 1,325 178 186 4.5 IA : 250 246 1,290 1,390 323 342 5.9 KY : 151 146 955 1,025 144 150 4.2 MI : 323 310 1,405 1,500 454 465 2.4 MN : 600 585 1,315 1,360 789 796 0.9 MO : 177 173 1,085 1,155 192 200 4.2 NM : 196 201 1,605 1,710 315 344 9.2 NY : 703 698 1,385 1,440 974 1,005 3.2 OH : 285 281 1,245 1,335 355 375 5.6 PA : 643 639 1,375 1,410 884 901 1.9 TX : 399 389 1,140 1,190 455 463 1.8 VT : 157 157 1,400 1,420 220 223 1.4 VA : 126 121 1,125 1,230 142 149 4.9 WA : 263 265 1,735 1,770 456 469 2.9 WI : 1,448 1,392 1,320 1,420 1,911 1,977 3.5 : 20 State: Total : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,480 10,944 11,464 4.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1996-97 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :---------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : Change : : : : : : :from 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- Pounds Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 120 128 1,700 1,750 204 224 9.8 CA : 1,263 1,290 1,695 1,800 2,141 2,322 8.5 FL : 156 161 1,235 1,285 193 207 7.3 ID : 255 269 1,570 1,660 400 447 11.8 IL : 154 148 1,240 1,320 191 195 2.1 IN : 140 140 1,270 1,330 178 186 4.5 IA : 249 246 1,285 1,375 320 338 5.6 KY : 153 145 940 1,040 144 151 4.9 MI : 322 310 1,385 1,490 446 462 3.6 MN : 600 585 1,335 1,370 801 801 0.0 MO : 180 173 1,050 1,185 189 205 8.5 NM : 194 200 1,630 1,695 316 339 7.3 NY : 704 698 1,385 1,430 975 998 2.4 OH : 285 281 1,240 1,325 353 372 5.4 PA : 643 639 1,360 1,405 874 898 2.7 TX : 400 389 1,230 1,210 492 471 -4.3 VT : 157 157 1,425 1,425 224 224 0.0 VA : 126 122 1,105 1,240 139 151 8.6 WA : 262 265 1,705 1,720 447 456 2.0 WI : 1,455 1,392 1,305 1,410 1,899 1,963 3.4 : 20 State: Total : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 194,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : : : : First and Final : Number of : Root : 90% : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean : Confidence :------------------------------------------ : Square : Level : : : : First : First : Error : : Average: Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : - Percent - ---------- Mil Lbs. ---------- - Number - : Milk : 0.5 1.0 406 172 22 426 8 2 Production : : --------- 1,000 Head ---------- : All Milk : 1.1 2.1 194 95 8 188 10 0 Cows : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next Milk Production report will be released at 3 P.M. ET on September 15, 1997. 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