HDR1012000160030915971500Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at (202) 690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 4.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 11.3 billion pounds, up 4.4 percent from production in these same States in August 1996. July revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was up 4.6 percent from July 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,454 pounds for August, 72 pounds above August 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 58,000 head less than August 1996 and 3,000 head less than July 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,253 4,231 4,391 39,638 40,630 2.5 Jul-Sep : 9,338 4,035 37,674 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 .5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 Jul : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,477 10,944 11,443 4.6 Aug : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,454 10,786 11,260 4.4 Sep : 7,795 1,342 10,459 Oct : 7,788 1,391 10,831 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,499 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : From : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : 1996 : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 .4 13,085 13,133 .4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 .9 39,053 38,922 -.3 Apr : 13,230 13,409 1.4 52,283 52,331 .1 May : 13,576 13,871 2.2 65,859 66,202 .5 Jun : 12,832 13,350 4.0 78,691 79,552 1.1 Jul : 12,809 13,393 4.6 91,500 92,945 1.6 Aug : 12,624 13,179 4.4 104,124 106,124 1.9 Sep : 12,241 116,365 Oct : 12,714 129,079 Nov : 12,324 141,403 Dec : 12,928 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,440 1,484 176 187 6.3 CA : 1,265 1,302 1,685 1,825 2,132 2,376 11.4 FL : 156 161 1,070 1,085 167 175 4.8 ID : 260 274 1,640 1,670 426 458 7.5 IL : 153 146 1,230 1,320 188 193 2.7 IN : 140 140 1,260 1,300 176 182 3.4 IA : 250 245 1,275 1,380 319 338 6.0 KY : 151 146 975 1,025 147 150 2.0 MI : 320 308 1,405 1,500 450 462 2.7 MN : 600 585 1,275 1,310 765 766 .1 MO : 175 173 1,090 1,095 191 189 -1.0 NM : 196 201 1,585 1,680 311 338 8.7 NY : 703 698 1,360 1,400 956 977 2.2 OH : 285 280 1,230 1,310 351 367 4.6 PA : 641 639 1,360 1,395 872 891 2.2 TX : 397 388 1,135 1,080 451 419 -7.1 VT : 157 157 1,375 1,410 216 221 2.3 VA : 126 121 1,160 1,264 146 153 4.8 WA : 264 264 1,735 1,760 458 465 1.5 WI : 1,441 1,390 1,310 1,405 1,888 1,953 3.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,454 10,786 11,260 4.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 129 1,445 1,635 176 211 19.9 CA : 1,264 1,296 1,725 1,850 2,180 2,398 10.0 FL : 156 161 1,145 1,170 179 188 5.0 ID : 258 272 1,650 1,710 426 465 9.2 IL : 154 147 1,240 1,320 191 194 1.6 IN : 140 140 1,270 1,325 178 186 4.5 IA : 250 246 1,290 1,390 323 342 5.9 KY : 151 146 955 1,015 144 148 2.8 MI : 323 310 1,405 1,500 454 465 2.4 MN : 600 585 1,315 1,360 789 796 .9 MO : 177 173 1,085 1,110 192 192 .0 NM : 196 201 1,605 1,700 315 342 8.6 NY : 703 698 1,385 1,430 974 998 2.5 OH : 285 281 1,245 1,310 355 368 3.7 PA : 643 639 1,375 1,410 884 901 1.9 TX : 399 388 1,140 1,130 455 438 -3.7 VT : 157 157 1,400 1,425 220 224 1.8 VA : 126 121 1,125 1,230 142 149 4.9 : 263 265 1,735 1,765 456 468 2.6 WI : 1,448 1,392 1,320 1,415 1,911 1,970 3.1 : 20 State : Total : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,477 10,944 11,443 4.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 102,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 194,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : .5 1.0 406 172 22 426 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 194 95 8 188 10 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next Milk Production report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 15, 1997. 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