HDR1012000160031015971500Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 2.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 10.8 billion pounds, up 2.9 percent from production in these same States in September 1996. August revised production, at 11.2 billion pounds was up 4.1 percent from August 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,390 pounds for September, 48 pounds above September 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 54,000 head less than September 1996 and 3,000 head less than August 1997. July-September Up 3.5 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.0 billion pounds, 3.5 percent above the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.25 million head, 91,000 head less than the same period last year. Grain and Other Concentrates Fed Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1997 averaged 18.7 pounds, up 0.7 pounds from October 1, 1996, but down 0.3 pounds from July 1, 1997. Value of Grain Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on October 1, 1997 averaged $8.51 per hundredweight, $1.02 less than October 1, 1996. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,254 4,231 4,393 39,638 40,648 2.5 Jul-Sep : 9,338 9,247 4,035 4,216 37,674 38,989 3.5 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 .5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 Jul : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,477 10,944 11,443 4.6 Aug : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,450 10,786 11,227 4.1 Sep : 7,795 7,741 1,342 1,390 10,459 10,758 2.9 Oct : 7,788 1,391 10,831 Nov : 7,775 1,350 10,499 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : From : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : 1996 : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 .4 13,085 13,133 .4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 .9 39,053 38,922 -.3 Apr : 13,230 13,411 1.4 52,283 52,333 .1 May : 13,576 13,874 2.2 65,859 66,207 .5 Jun : 12,832 13,363 4.1 78,691 79,570 1.1 Jul : 12,809 13,346 4.2 91,500 92,916 1.5 Aug : 12,624 13,095 3.7 104,124 106,011 1.8 Sep : 12,241 12,548 2.5 116,365 118,559 1.9 Oct : 12,714 129,079 Nov : 12,324 141,403 Dec : 12,928 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,475 1,429 180 180 .0 CA : 1,267 1,308 1,685 1,720 2,135 2,250 5.4 FL : 155 160 1,045 1,040 162 166 2.5 ID : 263 280 1,550 1,600 408 448 9.8 IL : 153 146 1,220 1,270 187 185 -1.1 IN : 140 140 1,250 1,275 175 179 2.3 IA : 250 245 1,250 1,345 313 330 5.4 KY : 151 144 965 1,015 146 146 .0 MI : 317 304 1,365 1,430 433 435 .5 MN : 600 580 1,220 1,235 732 716 -2.2 MO : 175 172 1,050 1,035 184 178 -3.3 NM : 195 205 1,505 1,580 293 324 10.6 NY : 703 697 1,300 1,330 914 927 1.4 OH : 285 278 1,190 1,260 339 350 3.2 PA : 642 639 1,305 1,350 838 863 3.0 TX : 395 388 1,090 1,050 431 407 -5.6 VT : 156 156 1,325 1,375 207 215 3.9 VA : 126 120 1,140 1,240 144 149 3.5 WA : 265 263 1,650 1,700 437 447 2.3 WI : 1,435 1,390 1,255 1,340 1,801 1,863 3.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,795 7,741 1,342 1,390 10,459 10,758 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,440 1,484 176 187 6.3 CA : 1,265 1,302 1,685 1,820 2,132 2,370 11.2 FL : 156 160 1,070 1,045 167 167 .0 ID : 260 277 1,640 1,680 426 465 9.2 IL : 153 146 1,230 1,320 188 193 2.7 IN : 140 140 1,260 1,300 176 182 3.4 IA : 250 245 1,275 1,380 319 338 6.0 KY : 151 145 975 1,020 147 148 .7 MI : 320 308 1,405 1,500 450 462 2.7 MN : 600 585 1,275 1,300 765 761 -.5 MO : 175 172 1,090 1,075 191 185 -3.1 NM : 196 203 1,585 1,650 311 335 7.7 NY : 703 698 1,360 1,400 956 977 2.2 OH : 285 280 1,230 1,310 351 367 4.6 PA : 641 639 1,360 1,395 872 891 2.2 TX : 397 388 1,135 1,080 451 419 -7.1 VT : 157 157 1,375 1,425 216 224 3.7 VA : 126 121 1,160 1,250 146 151 3.4 WA : 264 262 1,735 1,725 458 452 -1.3 WI : 1,441 1,390 1,310 1,405 1,888 1,953 3.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,450 10,786 11,227 4.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 32 31 115 110 -4.3 AK : .8 .8 3.33 3.52 5.7 AZ : 119 128 658 720 9.4 AR : 58 56 174 174 .0 CA : 1,262 1,285 6,544 7,104 8.6 CO : 84 85 413 433 4.8 CT : 30 30 128 129 .8 DE : 9.5 10.9 36.3 42.7 17.6 FL : 157 162 631 675 7.0 GA : 96 97 382 393 2.9 HI : 9.3 9.1 34.6 33.2 -4.0 ID : 252 267 1,172 1,304 11.3 IL : 155 148 602 595 -1.2 IN : 140 140 552 562 1.8 IA : 249 247 971 1,019 4.9 KS : 83 82 300 340 13.3 KY : 155 145 480 487 1.5 LA : 78 78 222 216 -2.7 ME : 40 40 166 170 2.4 MD : 86 86 336 342 1.8 MA : 27 26 111 110 -.9 MI : 322 308 1,383 1,390 .5 MN : 597 587 2,434 2,417 -.7 MS : 52 47 176 176 .0 MO : 182 173 648 653 .8 MT : 20 19 77 78 1.3 NE : 69 70 260 273 5.0 NV : 25 26 119 117 -1.7 NH : 20 19 85 84 -1.2 NJ : 22 21 77 76 -1.3 NM : 194 200 975 1,030 5.6 NY : 702 698 2,988 2,994 .2 NC : 81 76 333 316 -5.1 ND : 63 57 214 188 -12.1 OH : 285 282 1,123 1,138 1.3 OK : 98 97 330 330 .0 OR : 93 92 416 415 -.2 PA : 643 639 2,736 2,767 1.1 RI : 2 2 8 8.4 5.0 SC : 26 26 96 106 10.4 SD : 112 106 377 357 -5.3 TN : 116 113 415 423 1.9 TX : 400 389 1,640 1,545 -5.8 UT : 92 93 397 407 2.5 VT : 156 156 666 667 .2 VA : 126 122 453 475 4.9 WA : 262 265 1,342 1,378 2.7 WV : 20 18 64 67 4.7 WI : 1,460 1,393 5,753 5,789 .6 WY : 6 6.1 21.3 21.4 .5 : US 3/ : 9,369 9,254 39,638 40,648 2.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 30 89 93 4.5 AK : .8 .9 3.55 3.96 11.5 AZ : 122 127 532 578 8.6 AR : 56 55 162 160 -1.2 CA : 1,265 1,302 6,447 7,018 8.9 CO : 83 85 411 423 2.9 CT : 29 30 118 125 5.9 DE : 9.5 11.2 32.2 43.7 35.7 FL : 156 160 508 521 2.6 GA : 97 96 322 326 1.2 HI : 9.2 8.9 31.9 30.7 -3.8 ID : 260 276 1,260 1,378 9.4 IL : 153 146 566 572 1.1 IN : 140 140 529 547 3.4 IA : 250 245 955 1,010 5.8 KS : 80 81 280 315 12.5 KY : 151 145 437 442 1.1 LA : 78 76 178 175 -1.7 ME : 40 40 163 170 4.3 MD : 85 86 322 335 4.0 MA : 27 26 108 105 -2.8 MI : 320 307 1,337 1,362 1.9 MN : 600 583 2,286 2,273 -.6 MS : 50 47 142 140 -1.4 MO : 176 172 567 555 -2.1 MT : 20 19 78 76 -2.6 NE : 69 70 258 275 6.6 NV : 25 26 121 117 -3.3 NH : 19 19 78 81 3.8 NJ : 22 21 71 70 -1.4 NM : 196 203 919 1,001 8.9 NY : 703 698 2,844 2,902 2.0 NC : 80 75 298 295 -1.0 ND : 62 53 198 172 -13.1 OH : 285 280 1,045 1,085 3.8 OK : 96 96 300 310 3.3 OR : 93 92 410 418 2.0 PA : 642 639 2,594 2,655 2.4 RI : 1.9 2 7.4 7.6 2.7 SC : 26 26 83 85 2.4 SD : 112 104 370 350 -5.4 TN : 115 112 368 375 1.9 TX : 397 388 1,337 1,264 -5.5 UT : 92 91 401 398 -.7 VT : 157 157 643 663 3.1 VA : 126 121 432 449 3.9 WA : 264 263 1,351 1,367 1.2 WV : 20 18 60 66 10.0 WI : 1,441 1,391 5,600 5,786 3.3 WY : 6 6 21 20.4 -2.9 : US 3/ : 9,338 9,247 37,674 38,989 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value by State and United States, October 1, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value Per 100 Pounds of Concentrate : Fed Daily Per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Pounds ----- -------- Dollars ------- : AL : 16.7 18.3 10.50 9.20 AK : 19.5 19.5 14.50 14.80 AZ : 21.0 26.0 8.70 7.50 AR : 17.7 17.6 10.10 8.80 CA : 20.0 20.5 9.00 8.10 CO : 20.5 21.0 9.50 7.30 CT : 17.5 17.0 11.55 10.50 DE : 13.2 15.5 9.70 9.80 FL : 25.0 31.0 8.40 7.10 GA : 22.0 23.0 9.90 8.60 ID : 21.5 22.0 8.30 7.20 IL : 16.1 16.4 9.15 8.40 IN : 16.6 16.2 10.35 8.80 IA : 17.2 15.9 9.90 8.45 KS : 18.0 19.0 10.80 8.60 KY : 16.1 16.8 10.50 9.15 LA : 18.5 17.9 10.70 9.50 ME : 15.5 16.5 11.60 10.75 MD : 13.0 16.5 10.20 10.80 MA : 16.0 15.5 11.65 10.55 MI : 18.5 19.0 8.75 8.60 MN : 15.7 18.0 9.00 8.10 MS : 17.6 17.6 9.80 9.30 MO : 17.0 17.0 10.00 8.50 MT : 16.5 16.0 8.40 7.70 NE : 16.2 16.9 8.30 6.90 NV : 21.0 23.0 10.50 8.50 NH : 17.0 16.5 11.20 10.75 NJ : 14.5 14.5 12.60 11.20 NM : 26.0 26.2 7.80 7.25 NY : 14.8 14.2 11.70 10.70 NC : 17.7 17.9 10.90 9.90 ND : 15.0 15.2 7.10 6.60 OH : 17.5 17.1 10.10 9.50 OK : 18.8 20.7 10.00 8.40 OR : 18.6 19.0 10.50 9.90 PA : 16.2 16.4 11.00 10.85 RI : 15.0 16.0 11.00 10.50 SC : 22.0 22.0 9.65 8.80 SD : 16.5 15.8 8.20 7.10 TN : 17.0 16.5 11.10 9.90 TX : 20.1 21.2 9.40 8.20 UT : 16.4 17.7 9.20 8.00 VT : 15.0 16.0 11.40 10.35 VA : 14.5 16.2 10.10 9.40 WA : 20.0 20.0 9.65 8.70 WV : 14.0 15.0 10.80 10.75 WI : 16.0 15.9 8.70 7.30 WY : 13.4 13.0 7.80 6.70 : US : 18.0 18.7 9.53 8.51 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 213,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : .7 1.4 546 255 139 456 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.3 213 109 7 179 10 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 14, 1997. 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