National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 1997, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 10.6 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from production in these same States in November 1996. October revised production, at 11.0 billion pounds was up 1.4 percent from October 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,377 pounds for November, 27 pounds above November 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 51,000 head less than November 1996 and 7,000 head less than October 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,254 4,231 4,393 39,638 40,648 2.5 Jul-Sep : 9,338 9,245 4,035 4,209 37,674 38,917 3.3 Oct-Dec : 9,300 4,083 37,966 : Annual : 9,351 16,505 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 0.5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 Jul : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,477 10,944 11,443 4.6 Aug : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,450 10,786 11,227 4.1 Sep : 7,795 7,736 1,342 1,381 10,459 10,686 2.2 Oct : 7,788 7,731 1,391 1,421 10,831 10,986 1.4 Nov : 7,775 7,724 1,350 1,377 10,499 10,638 1.3 Dec : 7,765 1,418 11,013 : Annual : 7,807 16,833 131,422 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : From : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : 1996 : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 0.4 13,085 13,133 0.4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 0.9 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr : 13,230 13,411 1.4 52,283 52,333 0.1 May : 13,576 13,874 2.2 65,859 66,207 0.5 Jun : 12,832 13,363 4.1 78,691 79,570 1.1 Jul : 12,809 13,346 4.2 91,500 92,916 1.5 Aug : 12,624 13,095 3.7 104,124 106,011 1.8 Sep : 12,241 12,471 1.9 116,365 118,482 1.8 Oct : 12,714 12,896 1.4 129,079 131,378 1.8 Nov : 12,324 12,487 1.3 141,403 143,865 1.7 Dec : 12,928 154,331 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,690 1,645 206 207 0.5 CA : 1,269 1,320 1,700 1,730 2,157 2,284 5.9 FL : 157 159 1,230 1,195 193 190 -1.6 ID : 266 279 1,510 1,540 402 430 7.0 IL : 151 145 1,220 1,250 184 181 -1.6 IN : 140 140 1,240 1,250 174 175 0.6 IA : 250 244 1,260 1,340 315 327 3.8 KY : 151 142 980 980 148 139 -6.1 MI : 314 300 1,370 1,410 430 423 -1.6 MN : 595 575 1,250 1,240 744 713 -4.2 MO : 175 167 1,045 1,070 183 179 -2.2 NM : 195 205 1,565 1,610 305 330 8.2 NY : 700 699 1,270 1,300 889 909 2.2 OH : 285 274 1,200 1,260 342 345 0.9 PA : 642 640 1,310 1,350 841 864 2.7 TX : 395 387 1,205 1,155 476 447 -6.1 VT : 155 156 1,310 1,315 203 205 1.0 VA : 126 120 1,170 1,260 147 151 2.7 WA : 266 260 1,600 1,590 426 413 -3.1 WI : 1,421 1,386 1,220 1,245 1,734 1,726 -0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,775 7,724 1,350 1,377 10,499 10,638 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,620 1,595 198 201 1.5 CA : 1,268 1,314 1,750 1,790 2,219 2,352 6.0 FL : 156 159 1,160 1,105 181 176 -2.8 ID : 265 279 1,580 1,610 419 449 7.2 IL : 152 146 1,230 1,280 187 187 0.0 IN : 140 140 1,280 1,310 179 183 2.2 IA : 250 244 1,280 1,370 320 334 4.4 KY : 151 143 1,020 1,000 154 143 -7.1 MI : 317 303 1,415 1,460 449 442 -1.6 MN : 595 575 1,275 1,275 759 733 -3.4 MO : 175 169 1,105 1,075 193 182 -5.7 NM : 195 205 1,570 1,640 306 336 9.8 NY : 702 699 1,325 1,350 930 944 1.5 OH : 285 275 1,250 1,290 356 355 -0.3 PA : 645 640 1,345 1,395 868 893 2.9 TX : 395 387 1,185 1,135 468 439 -6.2 VT : 155 157 1,375 1,370 213 215 0.9 VA : 126 120 1,200 1,280 151 154 2.0 WA : 266 262 1,675 1,665 446 436 -2.2 WI : 1,428 1,388 1,285 1,320 1,835 1,832 -0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,788 7,731 1,391 1,421 10,831 10,986 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 213,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.4 546 255 139 456 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.3 213 109 7 179 10 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 15, 1998. 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