Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 0.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.1 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent from production in these same States in December 1996. November revised production, at 10.6 billion pounds was up 1.0 percent from November 1996. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,440 pounds for December, 22 pounds above December 1996. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 46,000 head less than December 1996 and 2,000 head less than November 1997. October-December Up 0.7 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 38.2 billion pounds, 0.7 percent above the October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.20 million head, 98,000 head less than the same period last year. Grain and Other Concentrates Fed Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on January 1, 1998, averaged 19.8 pounds, up 0.6 pounds from January 1, 1997, and up 1.1 pounds from October 1, 1997. Value of Grain and Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on January 1, 1998, averaged $8.47 per hundredweight, $0.32 less than January 1, 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,397 9,267 4,156 4,200 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr-Jun : 9,369 9,254 4,231 4,393 39,638 40,648 2.5 Jul-Sep : 9,338 9,244 4,035 4,208 37,674 38,897 3.2 Oct-Dec : 9,300 9,202 4,083 4,153 37,966 38,219 0.7 : Annual : 9,351 9,242 16,505 16,954 154,331 156,686 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,846 7,757 1,415 1,439 11,103 11,163 0.5 Feb : 7,828 7,743 1,348 1,331 10,549 10,309 -2.3 Mar : 7,822 7,736 1,469 1,501 11,487 11,611 1.1 Apr : 7,818 7,731 1,441 1,481 11,265 11,452 1.7 May : 7,816 7,733 1,479 1,532 11,560 11,847 2.5 Jun : 7,818 7,738 1,398 1,475 10,926 11,410 4.4 Jul : 7,815 7,747 1,400 1,477 10,944 11,443 4.6 Aug : 7,802 7,744 1,382 1,450 10,786 11,227 4.1 Sep : 7,795 7,736 1,342 1,381 10,459 10,686 2.2 Oct : 7,788 7,731 1,391 1,421 10,831 10,986 1.4 Nov : 7,775 7,721 1,350 1,373 10,499 10,602 1.0 Dec : 7,765 7,719 1,418 1,440 11,013 11,112 0.9 : Annual : 7,807 7,736 16,833 17,301 131,422 133,848 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : From : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : 1996 : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,085 13,133 0.4 13,085 13,133 0.4 Feb : 12,431 12,129 -2.4 25,516 25,262 -1.0 Mar : 13,537 13,660 0.9 39,053 38,922 -0.3 Apr : 13,230 13,411 1.4 52,283 52,333 0.1 May : 13,576 13,874 2.2 65,859 66,207 0.5 Jun : 12,832 13,363 4.1 78,691 79,570 1.1 Jul : 12,809 13,344 4.2 91,500 92,914 1.5 Aug : 12,624 13,092 3.7 104,124 106,006 1.8 Sep : 12,241 12,461 1.8 116,365 118,467 1.8 Oct : 12,714 12,840 1.0 129,079 131,307 1.7 Nov : 12,324 12,391 0.5 141,403 143,698 1.6 Dec : 12,928 12,988 0.5 154,331 156,686 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,855 1,762 226 222 -1.8 CA : 1,270 1,326 1,740 1,770 2,210 2,347 6.2 FL : 158 160 1,405 1,360 222 218 -1.8 ID : 267 280 1,530 1,590 409 445 8.8 IL : 150 145 1,240 1,310 186 190 2.2 IN : 140 140 1,300 1,330 182 186 2.2 IA : 250 240 1,325 1,420 331 341 3.0 KY : 150 140 1,040 1,015 156 142 -9.0 MI : 312 299 1,445 1,470 451 440 -2.4 MN : 595 575 1,340 1,350 797 776 -2.6 MO : 175 165 1,130 1,110 198 183 -7.6 NM : 197 208 1,645 1,630 324 339 4.6 NY : 700 700 1,340 1,360 938 952 1.5 OH : 285 272 1,280 1,320 365 359 -1.6 PA : 643 638 1,365 1,400 878 893 1.7 TX : 390 385 1,325 1,210 517 466 -9.9 VT : 156 156 1,375 1,410 215 220 2.3 VA : 125 120 1,240 1,320 155 158 1.9 WA : 266 260 1,640 1,650 436 429 -1.6 WI : 1,414 1,384 1,285 1,305 1,817 1,806 -0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,765 7,719 1,418 1,440 11,013 11,112 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1996-97 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : From : : : : : : : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 126 1,690 1,645 206 207 0.5 CA : 1,269 1,320 1,700 1,715 2,157 2,264 5.0 FL : 157 159 1,230 1,195 193 190 -1.6 ID : 266 280 1,510 1,550 402 434 8.0 IL : 151 145 1,220 1,250 184 181 -1.6 IN : 140 140 1,240 1,250 174 175 0.6 IA : 250 242 1,260 1,340 315 324 2.9 KY : 151 141 980 965 148 136 -8.1 MI : 314 300 1,370 1,410 430 423 -1.6 MN : 595 575 1,250 1,240 744 713 -4.2 MO : 175 167 1,045 1,065 183 178 -2.7 NM : 195 206 1,565 1,590 305 328 7.5 NY : 700 699 1,270 1,290 889 902 1.5 OH : 285 274 1,200 1,260 342 345 0.9 PA : 642 640 1,310 1,350 841 864 2.7 TX : 395 385 1,205 1,140 476 439 -7.8 VT : 155 156 1,310 1,340 203 209 3.0 VA : 126 120 1,170 1,260 147 151 2.7 WA : 266 260 1,600 1,590 426 413 -3.1 WI : 1,421 1,386 1,220 1,245 1,734 1,726 -0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,775 7,721 1,350 1,373 10,499 10,602 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1997 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 30 89 93 4.5 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.55 3.96 11.5 AZ : 122 127 532 578 8.6 AR : 56 55 162 160 -1.2 CA : 1,265 1,302 6,447 7,037 9.2 CO : 83 84 411 415 1.0 CT : 29 30 118 125 5.9 DE : 9.5 11.2 32.2 43.7 35.7 FL : 156 160 508 515 1.4 GA : 97 96 322 326 1.2 HI : 9.2 8.9 31.9 30.7 -3.8 ID : 260 276 1,260 1,374 9.0 IL : 153 146 566 572 1.1 IN : 140 140 529 547 3.4 IA : 250 245 955 1,010 5.8 KS : 80 81 280 300 7.1 KY : 151 145 437 438 0.2 LA : 78 76 178 175 -1.7 ME : 40 40 163 169 3.7 MD : 85 86 322 335 4.0 MA : 27 26 108 108 0.0 MI : 320 307 1,337 1,362 1.9 MN : 600 583 2,286 2,273 -0.6 MS : 50 47 142 140 -1.4 MO : 176 172 567 554 -2.3 MT : 20 19 78 76 -2.6 NE : 69 70 258 275 6.6 NV : 25 26 121 117 -3.3 NH : 19 19 78 81 3.8 NJ : 22 21 71 73 2.8 NM : 196 203 919 994 8.2 NY : 703 698 2,844 2,902 2.0 NC : 80 75 298 295 -1.0 ND : 62 53 198 172 -13.1 OH : 285 279 1,045 1,076 3.0 OK : 96 96 300 310 3.3 OR : 93 92 410 418 2.0 PA : 642 639 2,594 2,655 2.4 RI : 1.9 2 7.4 7.6 2.7 SC : 26 26 83 85 2.4 SD : 112 104 370 350 -5.4 TN : 115 112 368 375 1.9 TX : 397 388 1,337 1,264 -5.5 UT : 92 91 401 396 -1.2 VT : 157 157 643 662 3.0 VA : 126 121 432 449 3.9 WA : 264 263 1,351 1,350 -0.1 WV : 20 18 60 66 10.0 WI : 1,441 1,391 5,600 5,744 2.6 WY : 6 6 21 20.4 -2.9 : US 3/ : 9,338 9,244 37,674 38,897 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 29 103 99 -3.9 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.52 3.8 8.0 AZ : 122 126 630 630 0.0 AR : 56 55 165 162 -1.8 CA : 1,269 1,320 6,586 6,963 5.7 CO : 84 84 413 399 -3.4 CT : 29 30 118 129 9.3 DE : 9.5 11 33.1 44 32.9 FL : 157 159 596 584 -2.0 GA : 98 96 370 363 -1.9 HI : 9.5 8.8 29.1 27.8 -4.5 ID : 266 280 1,230 1,328 8.0 IL : 151 145 557 558 0.2 IN : 140 140 535 544 1.7 IA : 250 242 966 999 3.4 KS : 81 80 310 310 0.0 KY : 151 141 458 421 -8.1 LA : 78 76 205 184 -10.2 ME : 39 39 158 162 2.5 MD : 85 86 321 330 2.8 MA : 26 25 107 105 -1.9 MI : 314 301 1,330 1,305 -1.9 MN : 595 575 2,300 2,222 -3.4 MS : 49 44 161 144 -10.6 MO : 175 167 574 543 -5.4 MT : 20 18 77 70 -9.1 NE : 69 69 264 273 3.4 NV : 26 26 123 122 -0.8 NH : 18 19 76 82 7.9 NJ : 21 21 71 72 1.4 NM : 196 206 935 1,003 7.3 NY : 701 699 2,757 2,798 1.5 NC : 79 75 313 306 -2.2 ND : 61 49 184 159 -13.6 OH : 285 274 1,063 1,059 -0.4 OK : 95 95 300 310 3.3 OR : 92 92 388 390 0.5 PA : 643 639 2,587 2,650 2.4 RI : 1.9 2 7.8 7.7 -1.3 SC : 26 25 97 94 -3.1 SD : 110 102 352 338 -4.0 TN : 114 108 401 378 -5.7 TX : 393 386 1,461 1,344 -8.0 UT : 90 89 391 368 -5.9 VT : 155 156 631 644 2.1 VA : 126 120 453 463 2.2 WA : 266 261 1,308 1,278 -2.3 WV : 19 18 60 68 13.3 WI : 1,421 1,386 5,386 5,364 -0.4 WY : 6 5.7 21.6 18.2 -15.7 : US 3/ : 9,300 9,202 37,966 38,219 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value by State and United States, January 1, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value Per 100 Pounds of Concentrate : Fed Daily Per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Pounds ----- -------- Dollars ------- : AL : 19.4 19.0 9.80 9.20 AK : 19.5 19.5 14.60 14.80 AZ : 24.0 26.0 8.25 6.80 AR : 18.6 18.6 9.40 8.85 CA : 20.5 22.0 8.50 7.90 CO : 20.9 21.0 7.90 7.50 CT : 17.5 17.0 11.00 10.50 DE : 16.3 16.4 8.70 9.50 FL : 28.0 28.0 7.70 7.70 GA : 24.0 23.0 9.40 8.60 ID : 24.0 24.0 7.70 7.30 IL : 17.2 17.2 9.00 8.80 IN : 16.9 16.2 9.40 8.40 IA : 16.8 17.3 7.90 8.30 KS : 19.0 20.0 8.00 8.80 KY : 17.2 16.9 10.00 10.00 LA : 19.0 18.7 9.90 9.30 ME : 15.5 16.5 10.90 10.40 MD : 16.4 15.0 8.90 10.30 MA : 17.0 16.5 10.95 10.30 MI : 18.5 21.0 7.80 8.70 MN : 17.3 17.9 9.00 8.20 MS : 18.1 17.9 9.70 9.20 MO : 19.0 19.0 8.60 8.00 MT : 17.7 17.5 8.40 7.70 NE : 16.9 16.6 7.90 7.70 NV : 21.9 24.0 9.75 8.50 NH : 16.5 16.0 10.85 10.30 NJ : 14.4 14.5 11.75 11.20 NM : 27.0 26.0 7.50 6.95 NY : 14.8 14.2 10.60 10.70 NC : 18.7 18.7 10.10 9.90 ND : 16.5 16.2 6.45 6.55 OH : 17.7 18.0 9.10 9.70 OK : 20.5 19.7 9.00 8.85 OR : 18.5 18.6 9.70 9.30 PA : 18.0 19.0 10.20 10.30 RI : 15.5 15.5 11.00 10.40 SC : 22.5 22.5 9.15 8.75 SD : 17.9 16.1 7.10 7.10 TN : 18.0 17.0 10.60 9.90 TX : 21.6 23.6 9.30 8.00 UT : 17.1 19.8 8.35 7.90 VT : 17.0 16.0 10.65 10.30 VA : 15.0 16.8 11.00 9.30 WA : 21.0 20.0 9.30 8.30 WV : 14.5 15.5 10.80 10.50 WI : 18.1 18.0 7.50 7.60 WY : 13.4 13.8 7.50 6.00 : US : 19.2 19.8 8.79 8.47 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.20 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 221,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 420 183 22 385 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.4 221 114 18 195 10 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 17, 1998. 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