Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.5 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from production in these same States in February 1997. January revised production, at 11.3 billion pounds was up 1.4 percent from January 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,353 pounds for February, 25 pounds above February 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 45,000 head less than February 1997 and 1,000 head less than January 1997. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : --- 1,000 -- --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 4,192 38,961 Apr-Jun : 9,280 4,384 40,683 Jul-Sep : 9,251 4,195 38,805 Oct-Dec : 9,205 4,145 38,154 : Annual : 9,258 16,916 156,603 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,729 1,328 1,353 10,321 10,454 1.3 Mar : 7,763 1,500 11,641 Apr : 7,763 1,474 11,446 May : 7,765 1,529 11,869 Jun : 7,765 1,471 11,419 Jul : 7,765 1,473 11,437 Aug : 7,757 1,446 11,213 Sep : 7,752 1,377 10,671 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,312 1.4 13,126 13,312 1.4 Feb : 12,141 12,297 1.3 25,267 25,609 1.3 Mar : 13,694 38,961 Apr : 13,406 52,367 May : 13,902 66,269 Jun : 13,375 79,644 Jul : 13,319 92,963 Aug : 13,059 106,022 Sep : 12,427 118,449 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,978 156,603 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 124 130 1,840 1,660 228 216 -5.3 CA : 1,307 1,356 1,550 1,565 2,026 2,122 4.7 FL : 160 160 1,445 1,310 231 210 -9.1 ID : 267 284 1,360 1,510 363 429 18.2 IL : 149 144 1,270 1,290 189 186 -1.6 IN : 140 140 1,185 1,220 166 171 3.0 IA : 247 239 1,225 1,295 303 310 2.3 KY : 148 136 980 1,000 145 136 -6.2 MI : 310 298 1,370 1,315 425 392 -7.8 MN : 590 575 1,245 1,270 735 730 -0.7 MO : 172 158 1,070 1,120 184 177 -3.8 NM : 197 208 1,555 1,550 306 322 5.2 NY : 700 698 1,260 1,260 882 879 -0.3 OH : 285 272 1,260 1,290 359 351 -2.2 PA : 639 638 1,290 1,360 824 868 5.3 TX : 390 379 1,295 1,220 505 462 -8.5 VT : 155 157 1,285 1,325 199 208 4.5 VA : 124 120 1,180 1,250 146 150 2.7 WA : 266 261 1,525 1,535 406 401 -1.2 WI : 1,404 1,376 1,210 1,260 1,699 1,734 2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,774 7,729 1,328 1,353 10,321 10,454 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 122 130 1,970 1,800 240 234 -2.5 CA : 1,302 1,354 1,675 1,730 2,181 2,342 7.4 FL : 159 160 1,520 1,380 242 221 -8.7 ID : 268 283 1,500 1,630 402 461 14.7 IL : 149 144 1,290 1,370 192 197 2.6 IN : 140 140 1,320 1,330 185 186 0.5 IA : 248 239 1,320 1,420 327 340 4.0 KY : 150 138 1,055 1,065 158 147 -7.0 MI : 311 298 1,480 1,460 460 435 -5.4 MN : 595 570 1,345 1,375 800 784 -2.0 MO : 175 160 1,180 1,180 207 189 -8.7 NM : 197 208 1,675 1,565 330 326 -1.2 NY : 700 700 1,370 1,370 959 959 0.0 OH : 285 272 1,335 1,350 380 367 -3.4 PA : 641 638 1,385 1,470 888 938 5.6 TX : 390 379 1,390 1,300 542 493 -9.0 VT : 156 158 1,380 1,425 215 225 4.7 VA : 125 120 1,270 1,360 159 163 2.5 WA : 266 261 1,650 1,665 439 435 -0.9 WI : 1,408 1,378 1,315 1,360 1,852 1,874 1.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.21 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 120,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.4 percent, or about 221,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 90% : Difference Between : : : Confidence : First and Final : Number of : Root : Level : Estimates 1/ : Quarters Item : Mean :--------------------------------------------------------- : Square : : : : : : First : First : Error :Percent:Estimate:Average:Smallest:Largest: Above : Below : : : : : : : Final : Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 420 191 22 385 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.4 221 119 42 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15, 1998. 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