Da 1-1 (4-98) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 1.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from production in these same States in March 1997. February revised production, at 10.4 billion pounds was up 1.1 percent from February 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,529 pounds for March, 29 pounds above March 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 38,000 head less than March 1997 and 1,000 head less than February 1997. January-March Milk Production Up 0.8 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.3 billion pounds, 0.8 percent above the January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.18 million head, 111,000 head less than the same period last year. Grain and Other Concentrates Fed Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on April 1, 1998, averaged 19.8 pounds, up 0.3 pounds from April 1, 1997, and unchanged from January 1, 1998. Value of Grain and Other Concentrates The value of grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows on April 1, 1998, averaged $8.36 per hundredweight, $0.43 less than April 1, 1997. NOTICE: Beginning July 1998, NASS will discontinue the data series, Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,184 4,192 4,278 38,961 39,292 0.8 Apr-Jun : 9,280 4,384 40,683 Jul-Sep : 9,251 4,195 38,805 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,529 11,641 11,808 1.4 Apr : 7,763 1,474 11,446 May : 7,765 1,529 11,869 Jun : 7,765 1,471 11,419 Jul : 7,765 1,473 11,437 Aug : 7,757 1,446 11,213 Sep : 7,752 1,377 10,671 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,250 0.9 13,126 13,250 0.9 Feb : 12,141 12,217 0.6 25,267 25,467 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,825 1.0 38,961 39,292 0.8 Apr : 13,406 52,367 May : 13,902 66,269 Jun : 13,375 79,644 Jul : 13,319 92,963 Aug : 13,059 106,022 Sep : 12,427 118,449 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 125 130 2,100 1,890 262 246 -6.1 CA : 1,311 1,360 1,805 1,790 2,366 2,434 2.9 FL : 162 162 1,530 1,390 248 225 -9.3 ID : 264 284 1,550 1,670 409 474 15.9 IL : 148 144 1,360 1,480 201 213 6.0 IN : 140 140 1,320 1,410 185 197 6.5 IA : 246 238 1,400 1,470 344 350 1.7 KY : 147 136 1,115 1,160 164 158 -3.7 MI : 306 300 1,520 1,530 465 459 -1.3 MN : 590 570 1,385 1,415 817 807 -1.2 MO : 172 158 1,240 1,315 213 208 -2.3 NM : 199 211 1,735 1,660 345 350 1.4 NY : 700 697 1,420 1,430 994 997 0.3 OH : 284 272 1,370 1,425 389 388 -0.3 PA : 636 636 1,470 1,530 939 973 3.6 TX : 389 376 1,445 1,430 562 538 -4.3 VT : 155 157 1,425 1,465 221 230 4.1 VA : 124 120 1,320 1,360 164 163 -0.6 WA : 265 261 1,720 1,715 456 448 -1.8 WI : 1,400 1,373 1,355 1,420 1,897 1,950 2.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,529 11,641 11,808 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 124 130 1,840 1,660 228 216 -5.3 CA : 1,307 1,356 1,550 1,535 2,026 2,081 2.7 FL : 160 160 1,445 1,300 231 208 -10.0 ID : 267 283 1,360 1,490 363 422 16.3 IL : 149 144 1,270 1,290 189 186 -1.6 IN : 140 140 1,185 1,220 166 171 3.0 IA : 247 239 1,225 1,295 303 310 2.3 KY : 148 136 980 1,000 145 136 -6.2 MI : 310 298 1,370 1,380 425 411 -3.3 MN : 590 575 1,245 1,265 735 727 -1.1 MO : 172 158 1,070 1,145 184 181 -1.6 NM : 197 208 1,555 1,540 306 320 4.6 NY : 700 698 1,260 1,270 882 886 0.5 OH : 285 272 1,260 1,290 359 351 -2.2 PA : 639 638 1,290 1,360 824 868 5.3 TX : 390 377 1,295 1,250 505 471 -6.7 VT : 155 157 1,285 1,320 199 207 4.0 VA : 124 120 1,180 1,225 146 147 0.7 WA : 266 261 1,525 1,535 406 401 -1.2 WI : 1,404 1,376 1,210 1,260 1,699 1,734 2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 1996-97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 : 1997 : 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 29 103 100 -2.9 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.52 3.80 8.0 AZ : 122 130 630 632 0.3 AR : 56 52 165 153 -7.3 CA : 1,292 1,343 6,583 6,918 5.1 CO : 84 83 413 395 -4.4 CT : 28 30 118 128 8.5 DE : 9.5 10.5 34.1 38.2 12.0 FL : 157 159 596 571 -4.2 GA : 98 96 370 357 -3.5 HI : 9.5 8.9 29.1 27.7 -4.8 ID : 266 280 1,230 1,334 8.5 IL : 151 145 557 558 0.2 IN : 140 140 535 544 1.7 IA : 248 241 956 996 4.2 KS : 81 80 310 315 1.6 KY : 151 141 458 423 -7.6 LA : 78 76 205 184 -10.2 ME : 39 39 158 160 1.3 MD : 85 86 324 331 2.2 MA : 26 25 108 105 -2.8 MI : 314 301 1,330 1,313 -1.3 MN : 595 572 2,300 2,190 -4.8 MS : 49 44 161 142 -11.8 MO : 175 164 577 552 -4.3 MT : 20 18 77 70 -9.1 NE : 69 69 264 261 -1.1 NV : 26 26 123 122 -0.8 NH : 18 18 76 80 5.3 NJ : 21 20 71 71 0.0 NM : 196 206 938 1,002 6.8 NY : 701 699 2,755 2,798 1.6 NC : 79 75 313 306 -2.2 ND : 61 49 184 159 -13.6 OH : 285 274 1,060 1,060 0.0 OK : 95 95 300 310 3.3 OR : 92 88 388 388 0.0 PA : 643 639 2,587 2,669 3.2 RI : 1.9 2.0 7.8 7.7 -1.3 SC : 26 25 97 91 -6.2 SD : 110 102 352 338 -4.0 TN : 114 106 401 371 -7.5 TX : 393 380 1,461 1,350 -7.6 UT : 90 89 391 366 -6.4 VT : 155 158 618 640 3.6 VA : 126 120 453 466 2.9 WA : 266 260 1,308 1,276 -2.4 WV : 19 18 60 68 13.3 WI : 1,421 1,385 5,386 5,394 0.1 WY : 6.0 5.7 21.6 18.2 -15.7 : US 3/ : 9,320 9,206 37,946 38,153 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 28 117 112 -4.3 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.47 3.52 1.4 AZ : 124 130 730 696 -4.7 AR : 54 53 170 170 0.0 CA : 1,307 1,357 6,573 6,857 4.3 CO : 85 83 426 405 -4.9 CT : 29 30 127 135 6.3 DE : 10 11 38.3 44 14.9 FL : 160 161 721 654 -9.3 GA : 97 95 412 401 -2.7 HI : 9.5 9.0 32.2 29.9 -7.1 ID : 266 283 1,174 1,357 15.6 IL : 149 144 582 596 2.4 IN : 140 140 536 554 3.4 IA : 247 239 974 1,000 2.7 KS : 82 80 330 330 0.0 KY : 148 137 467 441 -5.6 LA : 78 75 224 219 -2.2 ME : 39 39 162 159 -1.9 MD : 86 87 335 348 3.9 MA : 26 25 108 104 -3.7 MI : 309 299 1,350 1,305 -3.3 MN : 592 572 2,352 2,318 -1.4 MS : 48 43 183 169 -7.7 MO : 173 159 604 578 -4.3 MT : 19 18 74 72 -2.7 NE : 69 69 257 264 2.7 NV : 26 26 115 127 10.4 NH : 19 18 83 82 -1.2 NJ : 21 19 76 74 -2.6 NM : 198 209 981 996 1.5 NY : 700 698 2,835 2,842 0.2 NC : 77 74 325 319 -1.8 ND : 59 48 183 162 -11.5 OH : 285 272 1,128 1,106 -2.0 OK : 97 96 325 322 -0.9 OR : 92 88 391 387 -1.0 PA : 639 637 2,651 2,779 4.8 RI : 2.0 2.0 8.2 8.0 -2.4 SC : 26 24 111 102 -8.1 SD : 106 102 339 341 0.6 TN : 115 103 426 395 -7.3 TX : 390 377 1,609 1,502 -6.7 UT : 92 88 374 361 -3.5 VT : 155 157 635 662 4.3 VA : 124 120 469 473 0.9 WA : 266 261 1,301 1,284 -1.3 WV : 19 18 65 71 9.2 WI : 1,404 1,376 5,448 5,558 2.0 WY : 6.1 5.5 20.7 17.6 -15.0 : US 3/ : 9,295 9,184 38,961 39,292 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Grain and Other Concentrates: Quantity Fed Daily and Value by State and United States, April 1, 1997-1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Grain and Other Concentrates : Value Per 100 Pounds of Concentrate : Fed Daily Per Milk Cow : Ration Fed to Milk Cows State :------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ Pounds ----- -------- Dollars ------- : AL : 19.4 19.0 9.50 8.60 AK : 19.5 19.5 14.80 14.80 AZ : 23.0 22.0 8.40 8.20 AR : 18.5 19.4 9.40 8.50 CA : 21.0 20.5 8.40 8.00 CO : 23.0 23.0 7.80 7.40 CT : 18.0 18.0 10.80 9.90 DE : 13.8 14.0 9.20 9.80 FL : 30.0 27.0 8.10 7.25 GA : 24.0 25.0 9.10 8.10 ID : 22.5 24.0 7.70 6.90 IL : 18.8 17.6 9.00 10.20 IN : 17.6 17.5 10.00 8.70 IA : 16.7 17.4 7.80 7.70 KS : 19.0 20.0 8.60 8.70 KY : 17.3 16.9 10.05 9.50 LA : 19.6 19.6 9.80 8.90 ME : 16.5 17.0 10.80 9.80 MD : 15.9 15.9 10.20 10.10 MA : 15.0 17.0 10.70 10.20 MI : 16.5 21.0 8.40 9.80 MN : 18.1 18.2 8.20 8.00 MS : 18.7 17.4 9.50 8.95 MO : 18.5 19.5 8.70 7.90 MT : 16.5 18.2 7.90 8.10 NE : 17.0 16.9 7.50 7.10 NV : 22.5 19.0 9.00 8.40 NH : 17.5 16.5 11.20 10.10 NJ : 15.8 16.0 11.00 10.25 NM : 28.0 28.0 7.40 6.80 NY : 15.3 14.0 10.80 10.50 NC : 18.8 18.8 10.30 9.50 ND : 16.0 15.7 6.45 6.85 OH : 17.6 18.8 9.30 9.70 OK : 21.0 19.2 8.80 8.85 OR : 18.5 18.0 9.90 9.40 PA : 18.0 17.0 10.50 9.50 RI : 15.0 16.0 10.00 9.50 SC : 22.5 23.5 9.35 8.30 SD : 15.9 16.8 7.20 7.05 TN : 18.0 19.0 10.30 9.40 TX : 24.2 24.7 9.10 7.80 UT : 17.5 19.9 8.45 8.10 VT : 15.0 16.5 10.40 9.70 VA : 16.7 17.3 9.70 9.20 WA : 21.0 21.0 9.10 8.30 WV : 16.0 15.5 10.00 10.30 WI : 18.5 18.7 7.70 7.40 WY : 13.2 13.5 7.10 6.10 : US : 19.5 19.8 8.79 8.36 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.18 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 184,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 354 172 30 315 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 184 86 2 187 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 18, 1998. 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