Da 1-1 (5-98) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 18, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Up 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 11.6 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from production in these same States in April 1997. March revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds was up 0.7 percent from March 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,496 pounds for April, 22 pounds above April 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 32,000 head less than April 1997 but 6,000 head more than March 1998. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,184 4,192 4,269 38,961 39,206 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 4,384 40,683 Jul-Sep : 9,251 4,195 38,805 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,731 1,474 1,496 11,446 11,564 1.0 May : 7,765 1,529 11,869 Jun : 7,765 1,471 11,419 Jul : 7,765 1,473 11,437 Aug : 7,757 1,446 11,213 Sep : 7,752 1,377 10,671 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,255 1.0 13,126 13,255 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,221 0.7 25,267 25,476 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,730 0.3 38,961 39,206 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,544 1.0 52,367 52,750 0.7 May : 13,902 66,269 Jun : 13,375 79,644 Jul : 13,319 92,963 Aug : 13,059 106,022 Sep : 12,427 118,449 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 127 130 1,980 1,880 252 244 -3.2 CA : 1,315 1,364 1,795 1,715 2,360 2,339 -0.9 FL : 162 162 1,455 1,400 236 227 -3.8 ID : 265 285 1,560 1,620 413 462 11.9 IL : 148 143 1,350 1,460 200 209 4.5 IN : 140 140 1,310 1,390 183 195 6.6 IA : 246 238 1,360 1,460 335 347 3.6 KY : 145 136 1,145 1,160 166 158 -4.8 MI : 306 302 1,485 1,495 454 451 -0.7 MN : 590 570 1,335 1,375 788 784 -0.5 MO : 172 158 1,285 1,345 221 213 -3.6 NM : 199 213 1,705 1,730 339 368 8.6 NY : 698 700 1,400 1,390 977 973 -0.4 OH : 283 272 1,330 1,400 376 381 1.3 PA : 639 636 1,445 1,520 923 967 4.8 TX : 389 375 1,390 1,400 541 525 -3.0 VT : 156 158 1,385 1,425 216 225 4.2 VA : 123 120 1,300 1,365 160 164 2.5 WA : 265 261 1,700 1,700 451 444 -1.6 WI : 1,395 1,368 1,330 1,380 1,855 1,888 1.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,763 7,731 1,474 1,496 11,446 11,564 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 125 130 2,100 1,890 262 246 -6.1 CA : 1,311 1,360 1,805 1,725 2,366 2,346 -0.8 FL : 162 162 1,530 1,420 248 230 -7.3 ID : 264 283 1,550 1,660 409 470 14.9 IL : 148 144 1,360 1,480 201 213 6.0 IN : 140 140 1,320 1,410 185 197 6.5 IA : 246 238 1,400 1,470 344 350 1.7 KY : 147 136 1,115 1,150 164 156 -4.9 MI : 306 300 1,520 1,530 465 459 -1.3 MN : 590 570 1,385 1,415 817 807 -1.2 MO : 172 158 1,240 1,310 213 207 -2.8 NM : 199 213 1,735 1,730 345 368 6.7 NY : 700 697 1,420 1,430 994 997 0.3 OH : 284 272 1,370 1,425 389 388 -0.3 PA : 636 636 1,475 1,530 939 973 3.6 TX : 389 375 1,445 1,420 562 533 -5.2 VT : 155 157 1,425 1,460 221 229 3.6 VA : 124 120 1,320 1,410 164 169 3.0 WA : 265 261 1,720 1,715 456 448 -1.8 WI : 1,400 1,373 1,355 1,410 1,897 1,936 2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.18 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 184,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 354 172 30 315 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 184 86 2 187 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 1998. 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