Da 1-1 (6-98) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 2.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 12.1 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent from production in these same States in May 1997. April revised production, at 11.6 billion pounds was up 1.3 percent from April 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,564 pounds for May, 35 pounds above May 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 16,000 head less than May 1997 but 14,000 head more than April 1998. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,184 4,192 4,269 38,961 39,206 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 4,384 40,683 Jul-Sep : 9,251 4,195 38,805 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 May : 7,765 7,749 1,529 1,564 11,869 12,116 2.1 Jun : 7,765 1,471 11,419 Jul : 7,765 1,473 11,437 Aug : 7,757 1,446 11,213 Sep : 7,752 1,377 10,671 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,255 1.0 13,126 13,255 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,221 0.7 25,267 25,476 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,730 0.3 38,961 39,206 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,576 1.3 52,367 52,782 0.8 May : 13,902 14,191 2.1 66,269 66,973 1.1 Jun : 13,375 79,644 Jul : 13,319 92,963 Aug : 13,059 106,022 Sep : 12,427 118,449 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 128 130 1,920 1,945 246 253 2.8 CA : 1,320 1,370 1,835 1,825 2,422 2,500 3.2 FL : 162 162 1,430 1,325 232 215 -7.3 ID : 268 290 1,670 1,680 448 487 8.7 IL : 148 143 1,350 1,480 200 212 6.0 IN : 140 140 1,380 1,400 193 196 1.6 IA : 245 238 1,410 1,510 345 359 4.1 KY : 145 136 1,180 1,185 171 161 -5.8 MI : 308 302 1,540 1,560 474 471 -0.6 MN : 585 570 1,415 1,455 828 829 0.1 MO : 170 160 1,335 1,340 227 214 -5.7 NM : 200 216 1,760 1,770 352 382 8.5 NY : 698 701 1,465 1,460 1,023 1,023 0.0 OH : 283 274 1,380 1,440 391 395 1.0 PA : 639 635 1,480 1,550 946 984 4.0 TX : 388 375 1,370 1,405 532 527 -0.9 VT : 157 158 1,440 1,485 226 235 4.0 VA : 122 120 1,345 1,410 164 169 3.0 WA : 266 261 1,770 1,785 471 466 -1.1 WI : 1,393 1,368 1,420 1,490 1,978 2,038 3.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,765 7,749 1,529 1,564 11,869 12,116 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 127 130 1,980 1,880 252 244 -3.2 CA : 1,315 1,364 1,795 1,695 2,360 2,312 -2.0 FL : 162 162 1,455 1,375 236 223 -5.5 ID : 265 287 1,560 1,620 413 465 12.6 IL : 148 143 1,350 1,460 200 209 4.5 IN : 140 140 1,310 1,390 183 195 6.6 IA : 246 238 1,360 1,460 335 347 3.6 KY : 145 136 1,145 1,170 166 159 -4.2 MI : 306 302 1,485 1,495 454 451 -0.7 MN : 590 570 1,335 1,385 788 789 0.1 MO : 172 158 1,285 1,345 221 213 -3.6 NM : 199 215 1,705 1,725 339 371 9.4 NY : 698 700 1,400 1,400 977 980 0.3 OH : 283 272 1,330 1,400 376 381 1.3 PA : 639 636 1,445 1,520 923 967 4.8 TX : 389 375 1,390 1,425 541 534 -1.3 VT : 156 158 1,385 1,430 216 226 4.6 VA : 123 120 1,300 1,380 160 166 3.8 WA : 265 261 1,700 1,700 451 444 -1.6 WI : 1,395 1,368 1,330 1,400 1,855 1,915 3.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.18 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 184,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 354 172 30 315 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 184 86 2 187 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 15, 1998. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.