Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Down 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 11.2 billion pounds, down 0.4 percent from production in these same States in August 1997. July revised production, at 11.3 billion pounds was down 0.8 percent from July 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,441 pounds for August, 5 pounds below August 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 6,000 head less than August 1997 but 1,000 head more than July 1998. Da 1-1 (9-98) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,186 4,192 4,268 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 9,199 4,384 4,446 40,683 40,897 0.5 Jul-Sep : 9,251 4,195 38,805 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 May : 7,765 7,750 1,529 1,557 11,869 12,067 1.7 Jun : 7,765 7,753 1,471 1,476 11,419 11,446 0.2 Jul : 7,765 7,750 1,473 1,464 11,437 11,345 -0.8 Aug : 7,757 7,751 1,446 1,441 11,213 11,169 -0.4 Sep : 7,752 1,377 10,671 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,256 1.0 13,126 13,256 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,222 0.7 25,267 25,478 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,731 0.3 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,504 0.7 52,367 52,713 0.7 May : 13,902 14,058 1.1 66,269 66,771 0.8 Jun : 13,375 13,335 -0.3 79,644 80,106 0.6 Jul : 13,319 13,212 -0.8 92,963 93,318 0.4 Aug : 13,059 13,007 -0.4 106,022 106,325 0.3 Sep : 12,427 118,449 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 128 132 1,460 1,410 187 186 -0.5 CA : 1,332 1,383 1,780 1,660 2,371 2,296 -3.2 FL : 160 159 1,040 1,055 166 168 1.2 ID : 276 295 1,690 1,700 466 502 7.7 IL : 146 141 1,320 1,290 193 182 -5.7 IN : 140 140 1,300 1,310 182 183 0.5 IA : 243 240 1,380 1,335 335 320 -4.5 KY : 144 135 1,030 1,010 148 136 -8.1 MI : 308 301 1,500 1,495 462 450 -2.6 MN : 580 565 1,290 1,305 748 737 -1.5 MO : 166 160 1,120 1,115 186 178 -4.3 NM : 203 217 1,650 1,700 335 369 10.1 NY : 698 701 1,410 1,440 984 1,009 2.5 OH : 280 272 1,310 1,350 367 367 PA : 639 635 1,395 1,430 891 908 1.9 TX : 384 373 1,090 1,100 419 410 -2.1 VT : 157 156 1,425 1,420 224 222 -0.9 VA : 121 120 1,250 1,250 151 150 -0.7 WA : 262 260 1,725 1,755 452 456 0.9 WI : 1,390 1,366 1,400 1,420 1,946 1,940 -0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,757 7,751 1,446 1,441 11,213 11,169 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 128 132 1,660 1,460 212 193 -9.0 CA : 1,328 1,379 1,805 1,675 2,397 2,310 -3.6 FL : 161 159 1,160 1,145 187 182 -2.7 ID : 273 294 1,710 1,700 467 500 7.1 IL : 147 141 1,320 1,300 194 183 -5.7 IN : 140 140 1,325 1,340 186 188 1.1 IA : 244 240 1,390 1,355 339 325 -4.1 KY : 145 136 1,020 1,020 148 139 -6.1 MI : 309 303 1,490 1,505 460 456 -0.9 MN : 585 565 1,350 1,365 790 771 -2.4 MO : 167 161 1,160 1,165 194 188 -3.1 NM : 201 217 1,710 1,730 344 375 9.0 NY : 698 700 1,430 1,450 998 1,015 1.7 OH : 281 272 1,320 1,390 371 378 1.9 PA : 639 635 1,410 1,430 901 908 0.8 TX : 384 373 1,140 1,140 438 425 -3.0 VT : 157 157 1,425 1,430 224 225 0.4 VA : 121 120 1,230 1,235 149 148 -0.7 WA : 265 260 1,765 1,750 468 455 -2.8 WI : 1,392 1,366 1,415 1,450 1,970 1,981 0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,765 7,750 1,473 1,464 11,437 11,345 -0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.20 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.9 percent, or about 175,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 368 173 22 426 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 1.9 175 88 1 188 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 15, 1998. 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