Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 15, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 10.7 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent from production in these same States in September 1997. August revised production, at 11.2 billion pounds was down 0.5 percent from August 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,381 pounds for September, 4 pounds above September 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 5,000 head more than September 1997 and 4,000 head more than August 1998. July-September Milk Production Down 0.3 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 38.7 billion pounds, 0.3 percent below the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.20 million head, 48,000 head less than the same period last year. Da 1-1 (10-98) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,186 4,192 4,268 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 9,205 4,384 4,447 40,683 40,931 0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,251 9,203 4,195 4,205 38,805 38,700 -0.3 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 May : 7,765 7,750 1,529 1,557 11,869 12,067 1.7 Jun : 7,765 7,753 1,471 1,476 11,419 11,446 0.2 Jul : 7,765 7,750 1,473 1,464 11,437 11,345 -0.8 Aug : 7,757 7,753 1,446 1,439 11,213 11,160 -0.5 Sep : 7,752 7,757 1,377 1,381 10,671 10,712 0.4 Oct : 7,750 1,416 10,977 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,256 1.0 13,126 13,256 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,222 0.7 25,267 25,478 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,731 0.3 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,515 0.8 52,367 52,724 0.7 May : 13,902 14,070 1.2 66,269 66,794 0.8 Jun : 13,375 13,346 -0.2 79,644 80,140 0.6 Jul : 13,319 13,218 -0.8 92,963 93,358 0.4 Aug : 13,059 13,002 -0.4 106,022 106,360 0.3 Sep : 12,427 12,480 0.4 118,449 118,840 0.3 Oct : 12,814 131,263 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 129 132 1,400 1,440 180 190 5.6 CA : 1,335 1,387 1,695 1,570 2,263 2,178 -3.8 FL : 159 159 1,005 1,005 160 160 ID : 279 298 1,590 1,640 444 489 10.1 IL : 146 140 1,270 1,250 185 175 -5.4 IN : 140 141 1,275 1,250 179 176 -1.7 IA : 243 240 1,345 1,250 327 300 -8.3 KY : 143 135 985 1,000 141 135 -4.3 MI : 304 298 1,430 1,475 435 440 1.1 MN : 575 565 1,225 1,255 704 709 0.7 MO : 166 160 1,070 1,110 178 178 NM : 205 219 1,555 1,625 319 356 11.6 NY : 697 702 1,335 1,360 930 955 2.7 OH : 278 270 1,260 1,310 350 354 1.1 PA : 639 635 1,350 1,380 863 876 1.5 TX : 383 372 1,065 1,080 408 402 -1.5 VT : 159 158 1,335 1,360 212 215 1.4 VA : 120 120 1,240 1,235 149 148 -0.7 WA : 262 260 1,640 1,690 430 439 2.1 WI : 1,390 1,366 1,305 1,345 1,814 1,837 1.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,752 7,757 1,377 1,381 10,671 10,712 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 128 132 1,460 1,410 187 186 -0.5 CA : 1,332 1,383 1,780 1,640 2,371 2,268 -4.3 FL : 160 159 1,040 1,045 166 166 ID : 276 296 1,690 1,720 466 509 9.2 IL : 146 141 1,320 1,290 193 182 -5.7 IN : 140 140 1,300 1,310 182 183 0.5 IA : 243 240 1,380 1,335 335 320 -4.5 KY : 144 135 1,030 1,020 148 138 -6.8 MI : 308 301 1,500 1,495 462 450 -2.6 MN : 580 565 1,290 1,320 748 746 -0.3 MO : 166 160 1,120 1,115 186 178 -4.3 NM : 203 218 1,650 1,710 335 373 11.3 NY : 698 701 1,410 1,420 984 995 1.1 OH : 280 272 1,310 1,350 367 367 PA : 639 635 1,395 1,430 891 908 1.9 TX : 384 372 1,090 1,115 419 415 -1.0 VT : 157 157 1,425 1,430 224 225 0.4 VA : 121 120 1,250 1,240 151 149 -1.3 WA : 262 260 1,725 1,750 452 455 0.7 WI : 1,390 1,366 1,400 1,425 1,946 1,947 0.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,757 7,753 1,446 1,439 11,213 11,160 -0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 28 113 104 -8.0 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.77 3.67 -2.7 AZ : 128 130 723 739 2.2 AR : 53 53 164 180 9.8 CA : 1,320 1,369 7,106 7,059 -0.7 CO : 85 83 438 432 -1.4 CT : 29 30 129 135 4.7 DE : 10.0 11.0 38.5 44.4 15.3 FL : 162 161 672 630 -6.3 GA : 97 95 395 381 -3.5 HI : 9.1 9.0 33.2 35.5 6.9 ID : 267 291 1,308 1,442 10.2 IL : 148 143 595 610 2.5 IN : 140 140 562 576 2.5 IA : 245 239 1,016 1,034 1.8 KS : 82 81 340 325 -4.4 KY : 145 136 488 457 -6.4 LA : 78 72 216 205 -5.1 ME : 40 40 170 173 1.8 MD : 86 86 340 348 2.4 MA : 27 25 113 111 -1.8 MI : 308 302 1,390 1,377 -0.9 MN : 587 570 2,426 2,416 -0.4 MS : 47 42 174 157 -9.8 MO : 170 159 651 618 -5.1 MT : 19 18 76 74 -2.6 NE : 70 70 262 275 5.0 NV : 26 26 120 127 6.2 NH : 19 18 84 84 NJ : 21 19 79 74 -6.3 NM : 200 216 1,030 1,139 10.6 NY : 698 701 3,002 3,019 0.6 NC : 76 73 333 311 -6.6 ND : 57 49 188 171 -9.0 OH : 283 273 1,139 1,153 1.2 OK : 97 95 330 316 -4.2 OR : 91 89 418 420 0.5 PA : 639 635 2,767 2,862 3.4 RI : 2.0 2.0 8.5 8.1 -4.7 SC : 26 24 106 96 -9.4 SD : 106 102 357 362 1.4 TN : 114 105 426 397 -6.8 TX : 388 374 1,544 1,525 -1.2 UT : 93 90 406 388 -4.4 VT : 157 158 666 691 3.8 VA : 122 120 475 476 0.2 WA : 265 261 1,378 1,365 -0.9 WV : 18 18 67 70 4.5 WI : 1,393 1,368 5,796 5,916 2.1 WY : 6.1 5.5 21.4 19.8 -7.5 : US 3/ : 9,280 9,205 40,683 40,931 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : -------- 1,000 ------- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 27 88 82 -6.8 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.96 3.63 -8.3 AZ : 128 132 579 569 -1.7 AR : 53 52 154 166 7.8 CA : 1,332 1,383 7,031 6,756 -3.9 CO : 84 83 420 429 2.1 CT : 30 31 125 129 3.2 DE : 10.0 11.0 38.0 44.7 17.6 FL : 160 159 513 508 -1.0 GA : 96 93 324 313 -3.4 HI : 8.9 8.7 29.9 32.9 10.0 ID : 276 296 1,377 1,498 8.8 IL : 146 141 572 540 -5.6 IN : 140 140 547 547 IA : 243 240 1,001 945 -5.6 KS : 81 82 300 305 1.7 KY : 144 135 437 412 -5.7 LA : 76 68 170 156 -8.2 ME : 40 41 169 172 1.8 MD : 86 86 326 351 7.7 MA : 26 25 109 106 -2.8 MI : 307 301 1,357 1,346 -0.8 MN : 580 565 2,242 2,226 -0.7 MS : 47 40 135 122 -9.6 MO : 166 160 558 544 -2.5 MT : 19 18 75 72 -4.0 NE : 69 71 260 280 7.7 NV : 26 26 120 125 4.0 NH : 19 18 81 77 -4.9 NJ : 20 19 73 72 -1.4 NM : 203 218 998 1,104 10.6 NY : 698 701 2,912 2,965 1.8 NC : 75 73 295 284 -3.7 ND : 53 50 172 174 1.2 OH : 280 271 1,088 1,099 1.0 OK : 96 94 310 296 -4.5 OR : 89 89 413 418 1.2 PA : 639 635 2,655 2,692 1.4 RI : 2.0 2.0 7.6 7.5 -1.3 SC : 26 23 84 80 -4.8 SD : 104 102 350 366 4.6 TN : 110 104 371 347 -6.5 TX : 384 372 1,265 1,242 -1.8 UT : 91 90 394 384 -2.5 VT : 158 157 660 665 0.8 VA : 121 120 449 445 -0.9 WA : 263 260 1,350 1,349 -0.1 WV : 18 18 66 69 4.5 WI : 1,391 1,366 5,730 5,765 0.6 WY : 6.0 5.5 20.4 19.3 -5.4 : US 3/ : 9,251 9,203 38,805 38,700 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.20 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 110,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 193,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 464 237 30 456 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.1 193 101 4 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 13, 1998. 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