Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 13, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. October Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during October totaled 11.1 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from production in these same States in October 1997. September revised production, at 10.7 billion pounds was up 0.3 percent from September 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,436 pounds for October, 20 pounds above October 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 3,000 head less than October 1997 and 2,000 head less than September 1998. Da 1-1 (11-98) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,186 4,192 4,268 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 9,205 4,384 4,447 40,683 40,931 0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,251 9,201 4,195 4,205 38,805 38,694 -0.3 Oct-Dec : 9,206 4,144 38,153 : Annual : 9,258 16,915 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 May : 7,765 7,750 1,529 1,557 11,869 12,067 1.7 Jun : 7,765 7,753 1,471 1,476 11,419 11,446 0.2 Jul : 7,765 7,750 1,473 1,464 11,437 11,345 -0.8 Aug : 7,757 7,753 1,446 1,439 11,213 11,160 -0.5 Sep : 7,752 7,749 1,377 1,382 10,671 10,706 0.3 Oct : 7,750 7,747 1,416 1,436 10,977 11,124 1.3 Nov : 7,737 1,369 10,591 Dec : 7,732 1,438 11,118 : Annual : 7,759 17,252 133,861 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,256 1.0 13,126 13,256 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,222 0.7 25,267 25,478 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,731 0.3 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,515 0.8 52,367 52,724 0.7 May : 13,902 14,070 1.2 66,269 66,794 0.8 Jun : 13,375 13,346 -0.2 79,644 80,140 0.6 Jul : 13,319 13,218 -0.8 92,963 93,358 0.4 Aug : 13,059 13,002 -0.4 106,022 106,360 0.3 Sep : 12,427 12,474 0.4 118,449 118,834 0.3 Oct : 12,814 12,985 1.3 131,263 131,819 0.4 Nov : 12,362 143,625 Dec : 12,977 156,602 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,550 1,635 202 216 6.9 CA : 1,339 1,390 1,755 1,685 2,350 2,342 -0.3 FL : 159 159 1,105 1,075 176 171 -2.8 ID : 279 297 1,610 1,640 449 487 8.5 IL : 146 139 1,280 1,310 187 182 -2.7 IN : 140 141 1,310 1,290 183 182 -0.5 IA : 242 240 1,370 1,340 332 322 -3.0 KY : 143 132 1,000 985 143 130 -9.1 MI : 303 298 1,465 1,500 444 447 0.7 MN : 575 560 1,260 1,320 725 739 1.9 MO : 166 162 1,110 1,160 184 188 2.2 NM : 205 219 1,640 1,700 336 372 10.7 NY : 699 702 1,350 1,370 944 962 1.9 OH : 276 268 1,290 1,340 356 359 0.8 PA : 640 633 1,395 1,415 893 896 0.3 TX : 381 369 1,150 1,165 438 430 -1.8 VT : 158 160 1,355 1,345 214 215 0.5 VA : 120 120 1,280 1,250 154 150 -2.6 WA : 261 260 1,665 1,725 435 449 3.2 WI : 1,388 1,366 1,320 1,380 1,832 1,885 2.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,750 7,747 1,416 1,436 10,977 11,124 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ---- 1,000 ---- ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 129 132 1,400 1,440 180 190 5.6 CA : 1,335 1,387 1,695 1,575 2,263 2,185 -3.4 FL : 159 158 1,005 990 160 156 -2.5 ID : 279 296 1,590 1,630 444 482 8.6 IL : 146 140 1,270 1,250 185 175 -5.4 IN : 140 141 1,275 1,250 179 176 -1.7 IA : 243 240 1,345 1,250 327 300 -8.3 KY : 143 134 985 955 141 128 -9.2 MI : 304 298 1,430 1,475 435 440 1.1 MN : 575 560 1,225 1,275 704 714 1.4 MO : 166 160 1,070 1,110 178 178 NM : 205 219 1,555 1,625 319 356 11.6 NY : 697 702 1,335 1,350 930 948 1.9 OH : 278 270 1,260 1,310 350 354 1.1 PA : 639 635 1,350 1,380 863 876 1.5 TX : 383 370 1,065 1,065 408 394 -3.4 VT : 159 161 1,335 1,335 212 215 1.4 VA : 120 120 1,240 1,185 149 142 -4.7 WA : 262 260 1,640 1,690 430 439 2.1 WI : 1,390 1,366 1,305 1,360 1,814 1,858 2.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,752 7,749 1,377 1,382 10,671 10,706 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.20 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 110,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 193,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 464 237 30 456 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.1 193 101 4 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on December 15, 1998. 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