Da 1-1 (1-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.4 billion pounds, up 3.0 percent from production in these same States in December 1997. November revised production, at 10.9 billion pounds was up 2.7 percent from November 1997. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,478 pounds for December, 40 pounds above December 1997. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 12,000 head more than December 1997 but 1,000 head less than November 1998. October-December Milk Production Up 2.4 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.1 billion pounds, 2.4 percent above the October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.19 million head, 12,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,295 9,186 4,192 4,268 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr-Jun : 9,280 9,205 4,384 4,447 40,683 40,931 0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,251 9,203 4,195 4,204 38,805 38,685 -0.3 Oct-Dec : 9,206 9,194 4,144 4,248 38,153 39,058 2.4 : Annual : 9,258 9,198 16,915 17,165 156,602 157,883 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,787 7,730 1,433 1,464 11,158 11,316 1.4 Feb : 7,774 7,726 1,328 1,351 10,321 10,434 1.1 Mar : 7,763 7,725 1,500 1,517 11,641 11,722 0.7 Apr : 7,763 7,735 1,474 1,499 11,446 11,591 1.3 May : 7,765 7,750 1,529 1,557 11,869 12,067 1.7 Jun : 7,765 7,753 1,471 1,476 11,419 11,446 0.2 Jul : 7,765 7,750 1,473 1,464 11,437 11,345 -0.8 Aug : 7,757 7,753 1,446 1,439 11,213 11,160 -0.5 Sep : 7,752 7,749 1,377 1,382 10,671 10,706 0.3 Oct : 7,750 7,746 1,416 1,441 10,977 11,164 1.7 Nov : 7,737 7,745 1,369 1,405 10,591 10,881 2.7 Dec : 7,732 7,744 1,438 1,478 11,118 11,448 3.0 : Annual : 7,759 7,742 17,252 17,474 133,861 135,280 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : From : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : 1997 : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,126 13,256 1.0 13,126 13,256 1.0 Feb : 12,141 12,222 0.7 25,267 25,478 0.8 Mar : 13,694 13,731 0.3 38,961 39,209 0.6 Apr : 13,406 13,515 0.8 52,367 52,724 0.7 May : 13,902 14,070 1.2 66,269 66,794 0.8 Jun : 13,375 13,346 -0.2 79,644 80,140 0.6 Jul : 13,319 13,215 -0.8 92,963 93,355 0.4 Aug : 13,059 13,000 -0.5 106,022 106,355 0.3 Sep : 12,427 12,470 0.3 118,449 118,825 0.3 Oct : 12,814 13,019 1.6 131,263 131,844 0.4 Nov : 12,362 12,689 2.6 143,625 144,533 0.6 Dec : 12,977 13,350 2.9 156,602 157,883 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,710 1,795 222 237 6.8 CA : 1,348 1,397 1,710 1,665 2,305 2,326 0.9 FL : 160 157 1,315 1,260 210 198 -5.7 ID : 280 301 1,610 1,650 451 497 10.2 IL : 145 139 1,310 1,390 190 193 1.6 IN : 140 142 1,330 1,370 186 195 4.8 IA : 240 240 1,420 1,490 341 358 5.0 KY : 140 130 1,020 1,040 143 135 -5.6 MI : 299 299 1,480 1,510 443 451 1.8 MN : 570 550 1,340 1,450 764 798 4.5 MO : 162 164 1,165 1,210 189 198 4.8 NM : 208 218 1,625 1,675 338 365 8.0 NY : 700 702 1,360 1,400 952 983 3.3 OH : 272 265 1,320 1,380 359 366 1.9 PA : 638 629 1,430 1,450 912 912 TX : 380 365 1,245 1,305 473 476 0.6 VT : 158 162 1,385 1,400 219 227 3.7 VA : 120 121 1,340 1,265 161 153 -5.0 WA : 260 261 1,650 1,715 429 448 4.4 WI : 1,382 1,370 1,325 1,410 1,831 1,932 5.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,732 7,744 1,438 1,478 11,118 11,448 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1997-98 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : From : : : : : : : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,600 1,675 208 221 6.3 CA : 1,343 1,394 1,685 1,640 2,263 2,286 1.0 FL : 159 158 1,165 1,115 185 176 -4.9 ID : 280 300 1,550 1,600 434 480 10.6 IL : 145 139 1,250 1,320 181 183 1.1 IN : 140 142 1,250 1,285 175 182 4.0 IA : 241 240 1,340 1,400 323 336 4.0 KY : 141 131 970 980 137 128 -6.6 MI : 301 298 1,415 1,460 426 435 2.1 MN : 570 555 1,230 1,330 701 738 5.3 MO : 164 164 1,090 1,140 179 187 4.5 NM : 206 218 1,590 1,610 328 351 7.0 NY : 699 702 1,290 1,310 902 920 2.0 OH : 274 266 1,260 1,305 345 347 0.6 PA : 640 631 1,350 1,380 864 871 0.8 TX : 380 366 1,155 1,195 439 437 -0.5 VT : 159 161 1,305 1,330 207 214 3.4 VA : 120 120 1,260 1,215 151 146 -3.3 WA : 260 260 1,585 1,655 412 430 4.4 WI : 1,385 1,368 1,250 1,325 1,731 1,813 4.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,737 7,745 1,369 1,405 10,591 10,881 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1998 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 31 27 88 82 -6.8 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.96 3.63 -8.3 AZ : 128 132 579 569 -1.7 AR : 53 52 154 166 7.8 CA : 1,332 1,383 7,031 6,763 -3.8 CO : 84 83 420 429 2.1 CT : 30 30 125 126 0.8 DE : 10.0 11.0 38.0 44.7 17.6 FL : 160 159 513 504 -1.8 GA : 96 93 324 309 -4.6 HI : 8.9 8.7 29.9 32.9 10.0 ID : 276 295 1,377 1,491 8.3 IL : 146 141 572 540 -5.6 IN : 140 140 547 547 IA : 243 240 1,001 945 -5.6 KS : 81 82 300 305 1.7 KY : 144 135 437 405 -7.3 LA : 76 68 170 156 -8.2 ME : 40 41 169 172 1.8 MD : 86 86 326 351 7.7 MA : 26 26 109 106 -2.8 MI : 307 301 1,357 1,346 -0.8 MN : 580 563 2,242 2,231 -0.5 MS : 47 41 135 121 -10.4 MO : 166 160 558 544 -2.5 MT : 19 18 75 72 -4.0 NE : 69 71 260 280 7.7 NV : 26 26 120 125 4.2 NH : 19 19 81 77 -4.9 NJ : 20 19 73 72 -1.4 NM : 203 218 998 1,104 10.6 NY : 698 701 2,912 2,958 1.6 NC : 75 73 295 284 -3.7 ND : 53 50 172 174 1.2 OH : 280 271 1,088 1,099 1.0 OK : 96 94 310 296 -4.5 OR : 89 89 413 418 1.2 PA : 639 635 2,655 2,692 1.4 RI : 2.0 2.0 7.6 7.5 -1.3 SC : 26 23 84 80 -4.8 SD : 104 102 350 366 4.6 TN : 110 104 371 347 -6.5 TX : 384 372 1,265 1,234 -2.5 UT : 91 90 394 383 -2.8 VT : 158 158 660 665 0.8 VA : 121 120 449 439 -2.2 WA : 263 260 1,350 1,349 -0.1 WV : 18 18 66 69 4.5 WI : 1,391 1,366 5,730 5,786 1.0 WY : 6.0 5.5 20.4 19.3 -5.4 : US 3/ : 9,251 9,203 38,805 38,685 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 29 27 100 90 -10.0 AK : 0.9 0.8 3.80 3.51 -7.6 AZ : 130 132 632 674 6.6 AR : 52 51 153 171 11.8 CA : 1,343 1,394 6,918 6,975 0.8 CO : 83 83 395 414 4.8 CT : 30 30 128 128 DE : 10.5 11.0 38.2 44.6 16.8 FL : 159 158 571 545 -4.6 GA : 96 90 357 341 -4.5 HI : 8.9 8.8 27.7 29.5 6.5 ID : 280 300 1,334 1,472 10.3 IL : 145 139 558 558 IN : 140 142 544 559 2.8 IA : 241 240 996 1,016 2.0 KS : 80 83 315 320 1.6 KY : 141 131 423 395 -6.6 LA : 76 68 184 176 -4.3 ME : 39 41 160 163 1.9 MD : 86 86 331 352 6.3 MA : 25 26 105 105 MI : 301 298 1,313 1,333 1.5 MN : 572 555 2,190 2,281 4.2 MS : 44 41 142 131 -7.7 MO : 164 163 552 573 3.8 MT : 18 18 70 73 4.3 NE : 69 72 261 290 11.1 NV : 26 26 122 122 NH : 18 19 80 77 -3.8 NJ : 20 19 71 72 1.4 NM : 206 218 1,002 1,083 8.1 NY : 699 702 2,798 2,868 2.5 NC : 75 72 306 291 -4.9 ND : 49 50 159 172 8.2 OH : 274 266 1,060 1,072 1.1 OK : 95 94 310 310 OR : 88 88 388 400 3.1 PA : 639 631 2,669 2,679 0.4 RI : 2.0 2.0 7.7 7.6 -1.3 SC : 25 24 91 90 -1.1 SD : 102 102 338 366 8.3 TN : 106 101 371 357 -3.8 TX : 380 366 1,350 1,344 -0.4 UT : 89 93 366 381 4.1 VT : 158 161 640 661 3.3 VA : 120 120 466 448 -3.9 WA : 260 260 1,276 1,327 4.0 WV : 18 18 68 68 WI : 1,385 1,368 5,394 5,630 4.4 WY : 5.7 5.5 18.2 19.3 6.0 : US 3/ : 9,206 9,194 38,153 39,058 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Milk cows will not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.19 million head by more than 1.2 percent, or about 110,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 211,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 430 185 66 385 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.3 211 100 2 195 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 16, 1999. 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