Da 1-1 (3-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 4.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 10.8 billion pounds, up 4.3 percent from production in these same States in February 1998. January revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds was up 3.5 percent from January 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,407 pounds for February, 60 pounds above February 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million head, 16,000 head less than February 1998 and 4,000 head less than January 1999. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 4,268 39,164 Apr-Jun : 9,171 4,451 40,821 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,700 1,347 1,407 10,394 10,836 4.3 Mar : 7,709 1,515 11,678 Apr : 7,713 1,501 11,579 May : 7,719 1,556 12,011 Jun : 7,718 1,477 11,396 Jul : 7,709 1,468 11,314 Aug : 7,708 1,443 11,124 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,743 3.5 13,282 13,743 3.5 Feb : 12,188 12,706 4.3 25,470 26,449 3.8 Mar : 13,694 39,164 Apr : 13,510 52,674 May : 14,015 66,689 Jun : 13,296 79,985 Jul : 13,162 93,147 Aug : 12,942 106,089 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,660 1,835 216 242 12.0 CA : 1,405 1,448 1,480 1,560 2,079 2,259 8.7 FL : 160 158 1,300 1,335 208 211 1.4 ID : 283 306 1,490 1,490 422 456 8.1 IL : 129 125 1,310 1,310 169 164 -3.0 IN : 134 136 1,260 1,300 169 177 4.7 IA : 224 215 1,320 1,380 296 297 0.3 KY : 143 135 965 970 138 131 -5.1 MI : 296 301 1,370 1,415 406 426 4.9 MN : 555 545 1,320 1,400 733 763 4.1 MO : 175 164 1,090 1,150 191 189 -1.0 NM : 216 220 1,480 1,615 320 355 10.9 NY : 698 702 1,280 1,340 893 941 5.4 OH : 265 260 1,310 1,340 347 348 0.3 PA : 625 615 1,365 1,375 853 846 -0.8 TX : 365 340 1,290 1,400 471 476 1.1 VT : 162 162 1,285 1,320 208 214 2.9 VA : 125 122 1,175 1,190 147 145 -1.4 WA : 250 248 1,605 1,695 401 420 4.7 WI : 1,376 1,366 1,255 1,300 1,727 1,776 2.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,716 7,700 1,347 1,407 10,394 10,836 4.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,800 1,910 234 252 7.7 CA : 1,402 1,443 1,670 1,690 2,341 2,439 4.2 FL : 160 158 1,375 1,410 220 223 1.4 ID : 283 304 1,640 1,660 464 505 8.8 IL : 130 125 1,400 1,430 182 179 -1.6 IN : 135 137 1,370 1,380 185 189 2.2 IA : 225 220 1,440 1,515 324 333 2.8 KY : 145 135 1,035 1,045 150 141 -6.0 MI : 298 301 1,480 1,545 441 465 5.4 MN : 555 545 1,420 1,505 788 820 4.1 MO : 175 165 1,155 1,240 202 205 1.5 NM : 216 220 1,510 1,740 326 383 17.5 NY : 700 702 1,380 1,440 966 1,011 4.7 OH : 265 260 1,430 1,440 379 374 -1.3 PA : 625 617 1,495 1,475 934 910 -2.6 TX : 368 340 1,340 1,480 493 503 2.0 VT : 163 162 1,385 1,440 226 233 3.1 VA : 125 122 1,295 1,295 162 158 -2.5 WA : 250 248 1,745 1,860 436 461 5.7 WI : 1,378 1,368 1,360 1,415 1,874 1,936 3.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.14 million head by more than 1.3 percent, or about 119,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent, or about 210,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 428 183 1 385 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.3 210 102 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 15, 1999. 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