Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 4.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.1 billion pounds, up 4.0 percent from production in these same States in March 1998. February revised production, at 10.8 billion pounds was up 4.0 percent from February 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,577 pounds for March, 62 pounds above March 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.70 million head, 5,000 head less than March 1998, but 2,000 head more than February 1999. January-March Milk Production Up 3.3 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.5 billion pounds, 3.3 percent above the January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.13 million head, 42,000 head less than the same period last year. Da 1-1 (4-99) Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,134 4,268 4,431 39,164 40,471 3.3 Apr-Jun : 9,171 4,451 40,821 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,704 1,515 1,577 11,678 12,147 4.0 Apr : 7,713 1,501 11,579 May : 7,719 1,556 12,011 Jun : 7,718 1,477 11,396 Jul : 7,709 1,468 11,314 Aug : 7,708 1,443 11,124 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,679 3.0 13,282 13,679 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,616 3.5 25,470 26,295 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,176 3.5 39,164 40,471 3.3 Apr : 13,510 52,674 May : 14,015 66,689 Jun : 13,296 79,985 Jul : 13,162 93,147 Aug : 12,942 106,089 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,885 2,135 245 282 15.1 CA : 1,408 1,452 1,665 1,785 2,344 2,592 10.6 FL : 162 159 1,415 1,490 229 237 3.5 ID : 283 307 1,660 1,650 470 507 7.9 IL : 129 125 1,510 1,480 195 185 -5.1 IN : 134 136 1,430 1,330 192 181 -5.7 IA : 224 215 1,472 1,540 330 331 0.3 KY : 141 134 1,105 1,110 156 149 -4.5 MI : 297 297 1,530 1,580 454 469 3.3 MN : 555 545 1,465 1,555 813 847 4.2 MO : 174 162 1,240 1,320 216 214 -0.9 NM : 216 225 1,705 1,755 368 395 7.3 NY : 697 700 1,440 1,490 1,004 1,043 3.9 OH : 265 260 1,460 1,460 387 380 -1.8 PA : 624 614 1,535 1,565 958 961 0.3 TX : 362 342 1,475 1,585 534 542 1.5 VT : 161 162 1,430 1,470 230 238 3.5 VA : 125 122 1,345 1,350 168 165 -1.8 WA : 249 249 1,805 1,885 449 469 4.5 WI : 1,373 1,366 1,410 1,435 1,936 1,960 1.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,709 7,704 1,515 1,577 11,678 12,147 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,660 1,835 216 242 12.0 CA : 1,405 1,448 1,480 1,550 2,079 2,244 7.9 FL : 160 158 1,300 1,355 208 214 2.9 ID : 283 306 1,490 1,490 422 456 8.1 IL : 129 125 1,310 1,310 169 164 -3.0 IN : 134 136 1,260 1,300 169 177 4.7 IA : 224 215 1,320 1,380 296 297 0.3 KY : 143 135 965 985 138 133 -3.6 MI : 296 299 1,370 1,415 406 423 4.2 MN : 555 545 1,320 1,390 733 758 3.4 MO : 175 164 1,090 1,150 191 189 -1.0 NM : 216 223 1,480 1,615 320 360 12.5 NY : 698 702 1,280 1,320 893 927 3.8 OH : 265 260 1,310 1,340 347 348 0.3 PA : 625 615 1,365 1,375 853 846 -0.8 TX : 365 341 1,290 1,430 471 488 3.6 VT : 162 162 1,285 1,320 208 214 2.9 VA : 125 122 1,175 1,205 147 147 WA : 250 248 1,605 1,695 401 420 4.7 WI : 1,376 1,366 1,255 1,290 1,727 1,762 2.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 1997-98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 : 1998 : 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 29 27 100 92 -8.0 AK : 0.9 0.8 3.80 3.51 -7.6 AZ : 130 132 632 676 7.0 AR : 51 46 150 154 2.7 CA : 1,397 1,436 6,917 7,020 1.5 CO : 83 83 395 421 6.6 CT : 30 30 128 129 0.8 DE : 10.0 11.0 36.8 37.3 1.4 FL : 159 158 570 546 -4.2 GA : 96 90 357 343 -3.9 HI : 8.9 8.8 27.7 29.5 6.5 ID : 279 299 1,336 1,473 10.3 IL : 131 126 527 517 -1.9 IN : 135 137 544 547 0.6 IA : 226 224 915 972 6.2 KS : 80 83 315 320 1.6 KY : 146 136 423 404 -4.5 LA : 65 63 184 176 -4.3 ME : 41 42 161 166 3.1 MD : 86 86 331 320 -3.3 MA : 26 25 105 106 1.0 MI : 302 299 1,313 1,343 2.3 MN : 560 545 2,192 2,291 4.5 MS : 44 41 142 132 -7.0 MO : 176 166 552 573 3.8 MT : 18 18 70 73 4.3 NE : 69 70 261 266 1.9 NV : 26 25 122 115 -5.7 NH : 20 20 80 79 -1.3 NJ : 20 19 71 70 -1.4 NM : 209 218 1,002 1,093 9.1 NY : 699 702 2,794 2,879 3.0 NC : 78 73 318 312 -1.9 ND : 53 50 167 172 3.0 OH : 266 262 1,062 1,062 OK : 91 92 307 304 -1.0 OR : 88 88 388 394 1.5 PA : 625 620 2,633 2,623 -0.4 RI : 2.0 2.0 7.6 7.8 2.6 SC : 25 24 94 88 -6.4 SD : 102 102 338 366 8.3 TN : 110 101 380 357 -6.1 TX : 371 341 1,350 1,345 -0.4 UT : 89 93 366 381 4.1 VT : 162 161 640 666 4.1 VA : 125 123 466 449 -3.6 WA : 251 247 1,276 1,326 3.9 WV : 18 18 68 68 WI : 1,385 1,368 5,394 5,630 4.4 WY : 6.4 5.9 19.2 19.5 1.6 : US 3/ : 9,200 9,137 38,031 38,937 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 28 27 109 104 -4.6 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.52 3.47 -1.4 AZ : 130 132 695 776 11.7 AR : 51 45 164 130 -20.7 CA : 1,405 1,448 6,764 7,275 7.6 CO : 83 82 407 420 3.2 CT : 30 29 136 134 -1.5 DE : 11.0 11.0 44.0 43.9 -0.2 FL : 161 158 657 674 2.6 GA : 95 89 403 396 -1.7 HI : 9.0 8.8 31.5 29.9 -5.1 ID : 283 306 1,356 1,468 8.3 IL : 129 125 546 528 -3.3 IN : 134 136 546 547 0.2 IA : 224 217 950 961 1.2 KS : 80 85 335 350 4.5 KY : 143 135 444 423 -4.7 LA : 64 62 216 208 -3.7 ME : 40 42 165 177 7.3 MD : 87 86 348 350 0.6 MA : 26 25 109 105 -3.7 MI : 297 299 1,301 1,357 4.3 MN : 555 545 2,334 2,425 3.9 MS : 43 39 169 160 -5.3 MO : 175 164 609 608 -0.2 MT : 18 18 72 74 2.8 NE : 70 72 259 292 12.7 NV : 25 25 113 118 4.4 NH : 19 19 83 82 -1.2 NJ : 19 18 75 70 -6.7 NM : 216 223 1,014 1,138 12.2 NY : 698 701 2,863 2,981 4.1 NC : 77 73 332 317 -4.5 ND : 53 50 179 176 -1.7 OH : 265 260 1,113 1,102 -1.0 OK : 92 92 322 325 0.9 OR : 88 88 384 403 4.9 PA : 625 615 2,745 2,717 -1.0 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.3 7.9 -4.8 SC : 25 24 105 104 -1.0 SD : 102 102 341 367 7.6 TN : 108 100 401 379 -5.5 TX : 365 341 1,498 1,533 2.3 UT : 88 91 361 379 5.0 VT : 162 162 664 685 3.2 VA : 125 122 477 470 -1.5 WA : 250 248 1,286 1,350 5.0 WV : 18 18 71 71 WI : 1,376 1,367 5,537 5,658 2.2 WY : 6.2 5.9 19.2 18.9 -1.6 : US 3/ : 9,176 9,134 39,164 40,471 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 364 170 47 315 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 183 89 2 187 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 17, 1999. 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