Da 1-1 (6-99) National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Milk Production Released June 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 3.5 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from production in these same States in May 1998. April revised production, at 12.0 billion pounds, was up 3.5 percent from April 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,610 pounds for May, 54 pounds above May 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 3,000 head more than May 1998, and 8,000 head more than April 1999. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,436 39,164 40,526 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 4,451 40,821 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,722 1,556 1,610 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 1,477 11,396 Jul : 7,709 1,468 11,314 Aug : 7,708 1,443 11,124 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,671 2.9 13,282 13,671 2.9 Feb : 12,188 12,609 3.5 25,470 26,280 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,246 4.0 39,164 40,526 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,988 3.5 52,674 54,514 3.5 May : 14,015 14,502 3.5 66,689 69,016 3.5 Jun : 13,296 79,985 Jul : 13,162 93,147 Aug : 12,942 106,089 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 134 1,945 2,060 253 276 9.1 CA : 1,414 1,460 1,720 1,825 2,432 2,665 9.6 FL : 162 160 1,350 1,420 219 227 3.7 ID : 293 314 1,680 1,720 492 540 9.8 IL : 128 123 1,510 1,490 193 183 -5.2 IN : 137 136 1,420 1,400 195 190 -2.6 IA : 223 215 1,520 1,550 339 333 -1.8 KY : 141 133 1,115 1,120 157 149 -5.1 MI : 299 293 1,560 1,600 466 469 0.6 MN : 555 545 1,490 1,550 827 845 2.2 MO : 172 161 1,285 1,305 221 210 -5.0 NM : 217 232 1,795 1,795 390 416 6.7 NY : 701 700 1,490 1,520 1,044 1,064 1.9 OH : 265 259 1,485 1,480 394 383 -2.8 PA : 623 615 1,550 1,605 966 987 2.2 TX : 356 345 1,480 1,515 527 523 -0.8 VT : 162 162 1,480 1,530 240 248 3.3 VA : 125 122 1,310 1,330 164 162 -1.2 WA : 248 247 1,885 1,960 467 484 3.6 WI : 1,368 1,366 1,480 1,520 2,025 2,076 2.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,719 7,722 1,556 1,610 12,011 12,430 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 132 1,885 2,070 245 273 11.4 CA : 1,410 1,456 1,640 1,770 2,312 2,577 11.5 FL : 162 160 1,375 1,430 223 229 2.7 ID : 288 312 1,620 1,640 467 512 9.6 IL : 129 124 1,490 1,430 192 177 -7.8 IN : 136 136 1,410 1,340 192 182 -5.2 IA : 223 215 1,465 1,500 327 323 -1.2 KY : 141 134 1,135 1,110 160 149 -6.9 MI : 298 294 1,495 1,540 446 453 1.6 MN : 555 545 1,435 1,495 796 815 2.4 MO : 173 161 1,305 1,305 226 210 -7.1 NM : 216 231 1,720 1,740 372 402 8.1 NY : 700 700 1,420 1,460 994 1,022 2.8 OH : 265 260 1,470 1,420 390 369 -5.4 PA : 624 615 1,530 1,545 955 950 -0.5 TX : 359 342 1,490 1,545 535 528 -1.3 VT : 162 162 1,405 1,445 228 234 2.6 VA : 125 122 1,320 1,320 165 161 -2.4 WA : 249 248 1,790 1,870 446 464 4.0 WI : 1,368 1,365 1,395 1,435 1,908 1,959 2.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.14 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 100,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent, or about 183,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 365 170 47 315 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 183 89 2 187 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 15, 1999. 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