Da 1-1 (7-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. June Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from production in these same States in June 1998. May revised production, at 12.4 billion pounds, was up 3.5 percent from May 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,525 pounds for June, 48 pounds above June 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 11,000 head more than June 1998, and 4,000 head more than May 1999. April-June Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.0 billion pounds, 3.0 percent above the April-June period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the April-June quarter was 9.15 million head, 20,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,593 40,821 42,034 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,729 1,477 1,525 11,396 11,785 3.4 Jul : 7,709 1,468 11,314 Aug : 7,708 1,443 11,124 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,920 3.0 52,674 54,460 3.4 May : 14,015 14,431 3.0 66,689 68,891 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,683 2.9 79,985 82,574 3.2 Jul : 13,162 93,147 Aug : 12,942 106,089 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 131 134 1,780 1,830 233 245 5.2 CA : 1,417 1,464 1,635 1,725 2,317 2,525 9.0 FL : 160 159 1,170 1,295 187 206 10.2 ID : 293 316 1,660 1,670 486 528 8.6 IL : 128 122 1,360 1,420 174 173 -0.6 IN : 137 136 1,340 1,390 184 189 2.7 IA : 222 215 1,433 1,460 318 314 -1.3 KY : 141 133 1,000 1,000 141 133 -5.7 MI : 303 291 1,515 1,530 459 445 -3.1 MN : 555 545 1,425 1,485 791 809 2.3 MO : 171 160 1,135 1,095 194 175 -9.8 NM : 217 234 1,755 1,730 381 405 6.3 NY : 701 702 1,430 1,470 1,002 1,032 3.0 OH : 264 260 1,420 1,460 375 380 1.3 PA : 623 614 1,435 1,495 894 918 2.7 TX : 353 346 1,320 1,325 466 458 -1.7 VT : 162 162 1,420 1,450 230 235 2.2 VA : 125 121 1,185 1,225 148 148 WA : 247 247 1,835 1,875 453 463 2.2 WI : 1,368 1,368 1,435 1,465 1,963 2,004 2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,718 7,729 1,477 1,525 11,396 11,785 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 130 134 1,945 2,060 253 276 9.1 CA : 1,414 1,460 1,720 1,820 2,432 2,657 9.3 FL : 162 160 1,350 1,405 219 225 2.7 ID : 293 314 1,680 1,710 492 537 9.1 IL : 128 123 1,510 1,490 193 183 -5.2 IN : 137 136 1,420 1,400 195 190 -2.6 IA : 223 215 1,520 1,550 339 333 -1.8 KY : 141 133 1,115 1,120 157 149 -5.1 MI : 299 293 1,560 1,600 466 469 0.6 MN : 555 545 1,490 1,550 827 845 2.2 MO : 172 161 1,285 1,305 221 210 -5.0 NM : 217 232 1,795 1,795 390 416 6.7 NY : 701 702 1,490 1,530 1,044 1,074 2.9 OH : 265 260 1,485 1,540 394 400 1.5 PA : 623 615 1,550 1,605 966 987 2.2 TX : 356 345 1,480 1,515 527 523 -0.8 VT : 162 162 1,480 1,515 240 245 2.1 VA : 125 122 1,310 1,345 164 164 WA : 248 247 1,885 1,935 467 478 2.4 WI : 1,368 1,366 1,480 1,515 2,025 2,069 2.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised January-March, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 28 27 109 106 -2.8 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.52 3.47 -1.4 AZ : 130 132 695 776 11.7 AR : 51 45 164 130 -20.7 CA : 1,405 1,448 6,764 7,289 7.8 CO : 83 82 407 417 2.5 CT : 30 29 136 134 -1.5 DE : 11.0 11.0 44.0 43.9 -0.2 FL : 161 158 657 679 3.3 GA : 95 90 403 400 -0.7 HI : 9.0 8.8 31.5 29.9 -5.1 ID : 283 306 1,356 1,468 8.3 IL : 129 125 546 528 -3.3 IN : 134 136 546 547 0.2 IA : 224 217 950 961 1.2 KS : 80 85 335 350 4.5 KY : 143 135 444 420 -5.4 LA : 64 62 216 208 -3.7 ME : 40 42 165 175 6.1 MD : 87 86 348 350 0.6 MA : 26 25 109 106 -2.8 MI : 297 298 1,301 1,353 4.0 MN : 555 545 2,334 2,425 3.9 MS : 43 39 169 160 -5.3 MO : 175 164 609 608 -0.2 MT : 18 18 72 74 2.8 NE : 70 72 259 292 12.7 NV : 25 25 113 118 4.4 NH : 19 19 83 82 -1.2 NJ : 19 18 75 70 -6.7 NM : 216 225 1,014 1,152 13.6 NY : 698 701 2,863 2,981 4.1 NC : 77 73 332 317 -4.5 ND : 53 50 179 176 -1.7 OH : 265 260 1,113 1,102 -1.0 OK : 92 92 322 325 0.9 OR : 88 88 384 403 4.9 PA : 625 615 2,745 2,717 -1.0 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.3 7.9 -4.8 SC : 25 24 105 103 -1.9 SD : 102 102 341 367 7.6 TN : 108 100 401 379 -5.5 TX : 365 341 1,498 1,547 3.3 UT : 88 91 361 382 5.8 VT : 162 162 664 684 3.0 VA : 125 122 477 468 -1.9 WA : 250 248 1,286 1,350 5.0 WV : 18 18 71 71 WI : 1,376 1,367 5,537 5,686 2.7 WY : 6.2 5.9 19.2 18.9 -1.6 : US 3/ : 9,176 9,136 39,164 40,540 3.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary April-June, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 28 27 104 100 -3.8 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.67 3.57 -2.7 AZ : 130 133 731 794 8.6 AR : 49 45 167 132 -21.0 CA : 1,414 1,460 7,061 7,759 9.9 CO : 83 81 432 405 -6.3 CT : 30 29 136 137 0.7 DE : 11.0 11.0 44.4 43.6 -1.8 FL : 161 160 629 660 4.9 GA : 95 90 381 386 1.3 HI : 8.8 8.6 35.7 32.5 -9.0 ID : 291 314 1,445 1,577 9.1 IL : 128 123 559 533 -4.7 IN : 137 136 571 561 -1.8 IA : 223 215 984 970 -1.4 KS : 81 86 345 360 4.3 KY : 141 133 458 431 -5.9 LA : 63 61 203 189 -6.9 ME : 41 42 173 180 4.0 MD : 86 86 348 337 -3.2 MA : 26 25 112 109 -2.7 MI : 300 293 1,371 1,367 -0.3 MN : 555 545 2,414 2,469 2.3 MS : 42 39 157 150 -4.5 MO : 172 161 641 595 -7.2 MT : 18 18 74 77 4.1 NE : 69 73 263 304 15.6 NV : 25 25 120 128 6.7 NH : 20 19 87 83 -4.6 NJ : 19 18 75 67 -10.7 NM : 217 232 1,143 1,223 7.0 NY : 701 701 3,040 3,128 2.9 NC : 76 73 325 311 -4.3 ND : 52 49 181 181 OH : 265 260 1,159 1,149 -0.9 OK : 92 92 316 317 0.3 OR : 89 88 404 440 8.9 PA : 623 615 2,815 2,855 1.4 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.6 8.3 -3.5 SC : 25 24 100 101 1.0 SD : 102 102 362 380 5.0 TN : 106 99 399 373 -6.5 TX : 356 344 1,528 1,509 -1.2 UT : 90 91 388 406 4.6 VT : 162 162 698 714 2.3 VA : 125 122 477 473 -0.8 WA : 248 247 1,366 1,405 2.9 WV : 18 18 70 69 -1.4 WI : 1,368 1,366 5,896 6,032 2.3 WY : 6.1 5.9 20.7 20.1 -2.9 : US 3/ : 9,171 9,151 40,821 42,034 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 192,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.0 420 179 3 426 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 192 92 11 188 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 16, 1999. 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