Da 1-1 (8-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 16, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call James Hand at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. July Milk Production Up 2.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during July totaled 11.6 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from production in these same States in July 1998. July milk production was down 1.2 percent from June 1999, compared to a decrease of 0.7 percent for the same period in 1998. June revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds was up 2.8 percent from June 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,496 pounds for July, 28 pounds above July 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 27,000 head more than July 1998 and 6,000 head more than June 1999. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,586 40,821 41,963 2.8 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 Jul : 7,709 7,736 1,468 1,496 11,314 11,571 2.3 Aug : 7,708 1,443 11,124 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,920 3.0 52,674 54,460 3.4 May : 14,015 14,431 3.0 66,689 68,891 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,612 2.4 79,985 82,503 3.1 Jul : 13,162 13,456 2.2 93,147 95,959 3.0 Aug : 12,942 106,089 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,530 1,620 202 219 8.4 CA : 1,421 1,468 1,625 1,705 2,309 2,503 8.4 FL : 159 159 1,140 1,220 181 194 7.2 ID : 294 319 1,700 1,750 500 558 11.6 IL : 127 122 1,320 1,310 168 160 -4.8 IN : 136 136 1,350 1,360 184 185 0.5 IA : 222 215 1,425 1,430 316 307 -2.8 KY : 141 132 980 985 138 130 -5.8 MI : 305 292 1,540 1,540 470 450 -4.3 MN : 550 545 1,400 1,435 770 782 1.6 MO : 170 159 1,105 1,055 188 168 -10.6 NM : 217 235 1,730 1,690 375 397 5.9 NY : 700 702 1,450 1,470 1,015 1,032 1.7 OH : 264 260 1,350 1,340 356 348 -2.2 PA : 623 614 1,460 1,470 910 903 -0.8 TX : 350 346 1,215 1,225 425 424 -0.2 VT : 161 162 1,430 1,450 230 235 2.2 VA : 124 119 1,185 1,200 147 143 -2.7 WA : 247 248 1,845 1,925 456 477 4.6 WI : 1,366 1,368 1,445 1,430 1,974 1,956 -0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,709 7,736 1,468 1,496 11,314 11,571 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 131 134 1,780 1,830 233 245 5.2 CA : 1,417 1,464 1,635 1,710 2,317 2,503 8.0 FL : 160 159 1,170 1,290 187 205 9.6 ID : 293 317 1,660 1,680 486 533 9.7 IL : 128 122 1,360 1,420 174 173 -0.6 IN : 137 136 1,340 1,390 184 189 2.7 IA : 222 215 1,433 1,460 318 314 -1.3 KY : 141 133 1,000 1,000 141 133 -5.7 MI : 303 291 1,515 1,530 459 445 -3.1 MN : 555 545 1,425 1,475 791 804 1.6 MO : 171 160 1,135 1,095 194 175 -9.8 NM : 217 234 1,755 1,710 381 400 5.0 NY : 701 702 1,430 1,460 1,002 1,025 2.3 OH : 264 260 1,420 1,410 375 367 -2.1 PA : 623 614 1,435 1,495 894 918 2.7 TX : 353 346 1,320 1,330 466 460 -1.3 VT : 162 162 1,420 1,450 230 235 2.2 VA : 125 121 1,185 1,240 148 150 1.4 WA : 247 247 1,835 1,875 453 463 2.2 WI : 1,368 1,368 1,435 1,445 1,963 1,977 0.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 1.1 percent, or about 101,000 head. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent, or about 192,000 head (the 90 percent confidence level). Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.0 420 179 3 426 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 192 92 11 188 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on September 15, 1999. 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