Da 1-1 (9-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 3.6 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 11.5 billion pounds, up 3.6 percent from production in these same States in August 1998. July revised production, at 11.6 billion pounds was up 2.4 percent from July 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,488 pounds for August, 45 pounds above August 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 33,000 head more than August 1998 and 3,000 head more than July 1999. -Special Note- NASS PROGRAM CHANGES: The National Agricultural Statistics Service has completed a preliminary review of it's statistical program to make sure it best meets the needs of data users in the future. These changes are documented at the following web site: http://www.usda.gov/nass/events/events.htm This site can be reached through the NASS home page by clicking on "Coming Events and News" under AGENCY INFORMATION. The proposed program changes are the first subject. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,586 40,821 41,963 2.8 Jul-Sep : 9,149 4,210 38,519 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 Jul : 7,709 7,738 1,468 1,497 11,314 11,587 2.4 Aug : 7,708 7,741 1,443 1,488 11,124 11,522 3.6 Sep : 7,701 1,386 10,672 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,920 3.0 52,674 54,460 3.4 May : 14,015 14,431 3.0 66,689 68,891 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,612 2.4 79,985 82,503 3.1 Jul : 13,162 13,480 2.4 93,147 95,983 3.0 Aug : 12,942 13,404 3.6 106,089 109,387 3.1 Sep : 12,415 118,504 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,410 1,580 186 213 14.5 CA : 1,426 1,472 1,590 1,765 2,267 2,598 14.6 FL : 159 158 1,040 1,100 165 174 5.5 ID : 296 324 1,720 1,780 509 577 13.4 IL : 127 122 1,320 1,280 168 156 -7.1 IN : 135 136 1,320 1,330 178 181 1.7 IA : 222 215 1,403 1,400 311 301 -3.2 KY : 140 132 985 975 138 129 -6.5 MI : 304 292 1,535 1,540 467 450 -3.6 MN : 550 545 1,360 1,375 748 749 0.1 MO : 169 160 1,055 1,040 178 166 -6.7 NM : 218 235 1,710 1,635 373 384 2.9 NY : 701 702 1,420 1,460 995 1,025 3.0 OH : 263 259 1,350 1,430 355 370 4.2 PA : 623 615 1,435 1,455 894 895 0.1 TX : 347 346 1,195 1,095 415 379 -8.7 VT : 160 161 1,420 1,440 227 232 2.2 VA : 123 118 1,210 1,210 149 143 -4.0 WA : 247 248 1,840 1,910 454 474 4.4 WI : 1,366 1,366 1,425 1,410 1,947 1,926 -1.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,708 7,741 1,443 1,488 11,124 11,522 3.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,530 1,620 202 219 8.4 CA : 1,421 1,468 1,625 1,710 2,309 2,510 8.7 FL : 159 159 1,140 1,180 181 188 3.9 ID : 294 321 1,700 1,760 500 565 13.0 IL : 127 122 1,320 1,310 168 160 -4.8 IN : 136 136 1,350 1,360 184 185 0.5 IA : 222 215 1,425 1,430 316 307 -2.8 KY : 141 132 980 985 138 130 -5.8 MI : 305 292 1,540 1,540 470 450 -4.3 MN : 550 545 1,400 1,420 770 774 0.5 MO : 170 159 1,105 1,055 188 168 -10.6 NM : 217 235 1,730 1,690 375 397 5.9 NY : 700 702 1,450 1,470 1,015 1,032 1.7 OH : 264 260 1,350 1,440 356 374 5.1 PA : 623 614 1,460 1,470 910 903 -0.8 TX : 350 346 1,215 1,225 425 424 -0.2 VT : 161 161 1,430 1,450 230 233 1.3 VA : 124 119 1,185 1,195 147 142 -3.4 WA : 247 249 1,845 1,940 456 483 5.9 WI : 1,366 1,368 1,445 1,420 1,974 1,943 -1.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,709 7,738 1,468 1,497 11,314 11,587 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.0 420 179 3 426 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 192 92 11 188 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 14, 1999. 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