Da 1-1 (10-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 14, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 5.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.2 billion pounds, up 5.3 percent from production in these same States in September 1998. August revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from August 1998. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,449 pounds for September, 63 pounds above September 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 52,000 head more than September 1998, and 8,000 head more than August 1999. July-September Milk Production Up 3.3 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 39.8 billion pounds, 3.3 percent above the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.17 million head, 17,000 head more than the same period last year. -Special Note- NASS PROGRAM CHANGES: The National Agricultural Statistics Service has completed a preliminary review of it's statistical program to make sure it best meets the needs of data users in the future. These changes are documented at the following web site: http://www.usda.gov/nass/events/events.htm This site can be reached through the NASS home page by clicking on "Coming Events and News" under AGENCY INFORMATION. The proposed program changes are the first subject. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,587 40,821 41,980 2.8 Jul-Sep : 9,149 9,166 4,210 4,342 38,519 39,800 3.3 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 Jul : 7,709 7,738 1,468 1,497 11,314 11,587 2.4 Aug : 7,708 7,745 1,443 1,489 11,124 11,536 3.7 Sep : 7,701 7,753 1,386 1,449 10,672 11,235 5.3 Oct : 7,695 1,446 11,125 Nov : 7,697 1,407 10,829 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,926 3.1 52,674 54,466 3.4 May : 14,015 14,437 3.0 66,689 68,903 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,617 2.4 79,985 82,520 3.2 Jul : 13,162 13,450 2.2 93,147 95,970 3.0 Aug : 12,942 13,374 3.3 106,089 109,344 3.1 Sep : 12,415 12,976 4.5 118,504 122,320 3.2 Oct : 12,956 131,460 Nov : 12,611 144,071 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,440 1,550 190 209 10.0 CA : 1,429 1,476 1,530 1,725 2,186 2,546 16.5 FL : 158 157 990 1,075 156 169 8.3 ID : 296 324 1,630 1,700 482 551 14.3 IL : 127 121 1,280 1,300 163 157 -3.7 IN : 136 135 1,260 1,275 171 172 0.6 IA : 222 215 1,350 1,395 300 300 KY : 134 132 955 960 128 127 -0.8 MI : 301 294 1,460 1,510 439 444 1.1 MN : 550 550 1,305 1,335 718 734 2.2 MO : 168 163 1,060 1,080 178 176 -1.1 NM : 219 235 1,625 1,600 356 376 5.6 NY : 702 702 1,350 1,380 948 969 2.2 OH : 263 259 1,310 1,380 345 357 3.5 PA : 623 616 1,380 1,415 860 872 1.4 TX : 344 346 1,145 1,125 394 389 -1.3 VT : 161 161 1,365 1,380 220 222 0.9 VA : 123 121 1,155 1,250 142 151 6.3 WA : 247 247 1,775 1,860 438 459 4.8 WI : 1,366 1,364 1,360 1,360 1,858 1,855 -0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,701 7,753 1,386 1,449 10,672 11,235 5.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1998-99 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,410 1,580 186 213 14.5 CA : 1,426 1,472 1,590 1,765 2,267 2,598 14.6 FL : 159 158 1,040 1,100 165 174 5.5 ID : 296 323 1,720 1,770 509 572 12.4 IL : 127 121 1,320 1,280 168 155 -7.7 IN : 135 136 1,320 1,330 178 181 1.7 IA : 222 215 1,403 1,400 311 301 -3.2 KY : 140 132 985 990 138 131 -5.1 MI : 304 292 1,535 1,540 467 450 -3.6 MN : 550 550 1,360 1,385 748 762 1.9 MO : 169 160 1,055 1,040 178 166 -6.7 NM : 218 235 1,710 1,635 373 384 2.9 NY : 701 702 1,420 1,450 995 1,018 2.3 OH : 263 259 1,350 1,430 355 370 4.2 PA : 623 615 1,435 1,455 894 895 0.1 TX : 347 346 1,195 1,095 415 379 -8.7 VT : 160 161 1,420 1,450 227 233 2.6 VA : 123 120 1,210 1,290 149 155 4.0 WA : 247 247 1,840 1,915 454 473 4.2 WI : 1,366 1,366 1,425 1,410 1,947 1,926 -1.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,708 7,745 1,443 1,489 11,124 11,536 3.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 28 27 104 98 -5.8 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.67 3.57 -2.7 AZ : 130 133 731 794 8.6 AR : 49 45 167 152 -9.0 CA : 1,414 1,460 7,061 7,737 9.6 CO : 83 81 432 410 -5.1 CT : 30 29 136 136 DE : 11.0 11.0 44.4 43.6 -1.8 FL : 161 160 629 659 4.8 GA : 95 90 381 392 2.9 HI : 8.8 8.6 35.7 32.5 -9.0 ID : 291 314 1,445 1,582 9.5 IL : 128 123 559 533 -4.7 IN : 137 136 571 561 -1.8 IA : 223 215 984 970 -1.4 KS : 81 86 345 360 4.3 KY : 141 133 458 431 -5.9 LA : 63 61 203 189 -6.9 ME : 41 42 173 180 4.0 MD : 86 86 348 337 -3.2 MA : 26 25 112 109 -2.7 MI : 300 293 1,371 1,367 -0.3 MN : 555 545 2,414 2,464 2.1 MS : 42 39 157 150 -4.5 MO : 172 161 641 595 -7.2 MT : 18 18 74 77 4.1 NE : 69 73 263 304 15.6 NV : 25 25 120 128 6.7 NH : 20 19 87 83 -4.6 NJ : 19 18 75 72 -4.0 NM : 217 232 1,143 1,218 6.6 NY : 701 701 3,040 3,121 2.7 NC : 76 73 325 311 -4.3 ND : 52 49 181 181 OH : 265 260 1,159 1,136 -2.0 OK : 92 92 316 317 0.3 OR : 89 88 404 421 4.2 PA : 623 615 2,815 2,855 1.4 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.6 8.2 -4.7 SC : 25 24 100 98 -2.0 SD : 102 102 362 380 5.0 TN : 106 98 399 373 -6.5 TX : 356 344 1,528 1,511 -1.1 UT : 90 92 388 412 6.2 VT : 162 162 698 714 2.3 VA : 125 122 477 475 -0.4 WA : 248 247 1,366 1,405 2.9 WV : 18 18 70 69 -1.4 WI : 1,368 1,366 5,896 6,005 1.8 WY : 6.1 5.9 20.7 20.1 -2.9 : US 3/ : 9,171 9,151 40,821 41,980 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 1998-99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 27 81 80 -1.2 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.63 3.48 -4.1 AZ : 132 135 578 641 10.9 AR : 48 44 154 126 -18.2 CA : 1,425 1,472 6,762 7,654 13.2 CO : 83 81 429 407 -5.1 CT : 30 28 128 124 -3.1 DE : 11.0 11.0 37.4 44.0 17.6 FL : 159 158 502 531 5.8 GA : 93 88 310 308 -0.6 HI : 8.8 8.6 32.3 31.4 -2.8 ID : 295 323 1,491 1,688 13.2 IL : 127 121 499 472 -5.4 IN : 136 136 533 538 0.9 IA : 222 215 927 908 -2.0 KS : 82 86 305 325 6.6 KY : 138 132 404 388 -4.0 LA : 63 61 156 151 -3.2 ME : 42 41 176 172 -2.3 MD : 86 86 324 341 5.2 MA : 26 24 111 104 -6.3 MI : 303 293 1,376 1,344 -2.3 MN : 550 548 2,236 2,270 1.5 MS : 41 38 121 119 -1.7 MO : 169 161 544 510 -6.3 MT : 18 18 72 76 5.6 NE : 69 74 262 302 15.3 NV : 25 25 118 128 8.5 NH : 21 19 85 79 -7.1 NJ : 19 18 72 69 -4.2 NM : 218 235 1,104 1,157 4.8 NY : 701 702 2,958 3,019 2.1 NC : 74 73 291 289 -0.7 ND : 50 48 174 172 -1.1 OH : 263 259 1,056 1,101 4.3 OK : 92 92 294 294 OR : 89 89 401 413 3.0 PA : 623 615 2,664 2,670 0.2 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.3 7.6 -8.4 SC : 24 23 81 79 -2.5 SD : 102 102 366 375 2.5 TN : 103 94 344 315 -8.4 TX : 347 346 1,234 1,192 -3.4 UT : 90 94 383 419 9.4 VT : 161 161 677 688 1.6 VA : 123 120 438 448 2.3 WA : 247 248 1,348 1,415 5.0 WV : 18 18 69 68 -1.4 WI : 1,366 1,366 5,779 5,724 -1.0 WY : 6.0 6.0 20.4 21.0 2.9 : US 3/ : 9,149 9,166 38,519 39,800 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.17 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.8 1.5 597 287 181 456 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 202 101 11 179 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 15, 1999. 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