Da 1-1 (12-99) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 15, 1999, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Up 4.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 11.3 billion pounds, up 4.4 percent from production in these same States in November 1998. October revised production, at 11.6 billion pounds was up 4.0 percent from October 1998. The October revision represented a decrease of 0.3 percent or 29 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,458 pounds for November, 51 pounds or 3.6 percent above November 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 58,000 head more than November 1998 and 7,000 head more than October 1999. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,587 40,821 41,980 2.8 Jul-Sep : 9,149 9,165 4,210 4,339 38,519 39,763 3.2 Oct-Dec : 9,137 4,261 38,937 : Annual : 9,158 17,192 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 Jul : 7,709 7,738 1,468 1,497 11,314 11,587 2.4 Aug : 7,708 7,745 1,443 1,489 11,124 11,536 3.7 Sep : 7,701 7,753 1,386 1,444 10,672 11,198 4.9 Oct : 7,695 7,748 1,446 1,493 11,125 11,569 4.0 Nov : 7,697 7,755 1,407 1,458 10,829 11,306 4.4 Dec : 7,708 1,489 11,481 : Annual : 7,710 17,501 134,930 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,926 3.1 52,674 54,466 3.4 May : 14,015 14,437 3.0 66,689 68,903 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,617 2.4 79,985 82,520 3.2 Jul : 13,162 13,450 2.2 93,147 95,970 3.0 Aug : 12,942 13,374 3.3 106,089 109,344 3.1 Sep : 12,415 12,939 4.2 118,504 122,283 3.2 Oct : 12,956 13,473 4.0 131,460 135,756 3.3 Nov : 12,611 13,166 4.4 144,071 148,922 3.4 Dec : 13,370 157,441 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,675 1,755 221 237 7.2 CA : 1,436 1,484 1,590 1,725 2,283 2,560 12.1 FL : 158 156 1,115 1,095 176 171 -2.8 ID : 299 329 1,600 1,670 478 549 14.9 IL : 126 121 1,350 1,330 170 161 -5.3 IN : 138 136 1,300 1,275 179 173 -3.4 IA : 221 215 1,410 1,420 312 305 -2.2 KY : 136 131 965 1,000 131 131 MI : 298 294 1,460 1,495 435 440 1.1 MN : 545 545 1,355 1,380 738 752 1.9 MO : 166 160 1,125 1,140 187 182 -2.7 NM : 218 235 1,610 1,670 351 392 11.7 NY : 702 700 1,320 1,360 927 952 2.7 OH : 262 259 1,310 1,380 343 357 4.1 PA : 620 618 1,380 1,420 856 878 2.6 TX : 341 348 1,285 1,290 438 449 2.5 VT : 161 160 1,335 1,345 215 215 VA : 123 121 1,185 1,290 146 156 6.8 WA : 247 244 1,740 1,800 430 439 2.1 WI : 1,368 1,364 1,325 1,325 1,813 1,807 -0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,697 7,755 1,407 1,458 10,829 11,306 4.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1998-1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,650 1,725 218 233 6.9 CA : 1,432 1,480 1,650 1,760 2,363 2,605 10.2 FL : 158 156 1,030 1,015 163 158 -3.1 ID : 298 327 1,660 1,750 495 572 15.6 IL : 126 121 1,340 1,340 169 162 -4.1 IN : 137 135 1,300 1,325 178 179 0.6 IA : 221 215 1,420 1,455 314 313 -0.3 KY : 137 131 970 1,015 133 133 MI : 300 295 1,505 1,540 452 454 0.4 MN : 545 545 1,375 1,395 749 760 1.5 MO : 167 161 1,125 1,150 188 185 -1.6 NM : 219 235 1,680 1,685 368 396 7.6 NY : 702 700 1,380 1,400 969 980 1.1 OH : 262 259 1,350 1,410 354 365 3.1 PA : 621 617 1,415 1,450 879 895 1.8 TX : 342 346 1,260 1,255 431 434 0.7 VT : 160 160 1,380 1,380 221 221 VA : 123 121 1,205 1,315 148 159 7.4 WA : 247 245 1,815 1,885 448 462 3.1 WI : 1,366 1,364 1,380 1,395 1,885 1,903 1.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,695 7,748 1,446 1,493 11,125 11,569 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.17 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.8 1.5 596 287 181 456 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 202 101 11 179 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 18, 2000. 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