Da 1-1 (1-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 18, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 3.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.9 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent from production in these same States in December 1998. November revised production, at 11.3 billion pounds, was up 4.5 percent from November 1998. The November revision represented an increase of 0.1 percent or 11 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,536 pounds for December, 47 pounds above December 1998. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 52,000 head more than December 1998 and 2,000 head more than November 1999. October-December Milk Production Up 3.8 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.4 billion pounds, 3.8 percent above the October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.18 million head, 41,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1998-1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,176 9,136 4,268 4,437 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr-Jun : 9,171 9,151 4,451 4,587 40,821 41,980 2.8 Jul-Sep : 9,149 9,166 4,210 4,340 38,519 39,784 3.3 Oct-Dec : 9,137 9,178 4,261 4,405 38,937 40,428 3.8 : Annual : 9,158 9,158 17,192 17,769 157,441 162,732 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ----- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,728 7,704 1,466 1,521 11,327 11,720 3.5 Feb : 7,716 7,702 1,347 1,403 10,394 10,809 4.0 Mar : 7,709 7,708 1,515 1,584 11,678 12,212 4.6 Apr : 7,713 7,714 1,501 1,554 11,579 11,989 3.5 May : 7,719 7,725 1,556 1,609 12,011 12,430 3.5 Jun : 7,718 7,730 1,477 1,515 11,396 11,714 2.8 Jul : 7,709 7,738 1,468 1,497 11,314 11,587 2.4 Aug : 7,708 7,745 1,443 1,489 11,124 11,536 3.7 Sep : 7,701 7,753 1,386 1,444 10,672 11,198 4.9 Oct : 7,695 7,748 1,446 1,493 11,125 11,569 4.0 Nov : 7,697 7,758 1,407 1,459 10,829 11,317 4.5 Dec : 7,708 7,760 1,489 1,536 11,481 11,918 3.8 : Annual : 7,710 7,732 17,501 18,106 134,930 139,999 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Production: United States, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : By Month : Cumulative :------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : Change : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : From : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : 1998 : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Million Pounds Percent Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 13,282 13,676 3.0 13,282 13,676 3.0 Feb : 12,188 12,613 3.5 25,470 26,289 3.2 Mar : 13,694 14,251 4.1 39,164 40,540 3.5 Apr : 13,510 13,926 3.1 52,674 54,466 3.4 May : 14,015 14,437 3.0 66,689 68,903 3.3 Jun : 13,296 13,617 2.4 79,985 82,520 3.2 Jul : 13,162 13,432 2.1 93,147 95,952 3.0 Aug : 12,942 13,372 3.3 106,089 109,324 3.0 Sep : 12,415 12,980 4.6 118,504 122,304 3.2 Oct : 12,956 13,438 3.7 131,460 135,742 3.3 Nov : 12,611 13,146 4.2 144,071 148,888 3.3 Dec : 13,370 13,844 3.5 157,441 162,732 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,795 1,830 237 247 4.2 CA : 1,439 1,486 1,650 1,775 2,374 2,638 11.1 FL : 157 156 1,320 1,315 207 205 -1.0 ID : 301 331 1,660 1,730 500 573 14.6 IL : 125 121 1,420 1,430 178 173 -2.8 IN : 137 138 1,390 1,355 190 187 -1.6 IA : 230 215 1,505 1,495 346 321 -7.2 KY : 136 131 1,030 1,060 140 139 -0.7 MI : 299 295 1,525 1,595 456 471 3.3 MN : 545 540 1,475 1,500 804 810 0.7 MO : 165 159 1,200 1,225 198 195 -1.5 NM : 218 236 1,715 1,720 374 406 8.6 NY : 702 700 1,400 1,440 983 1,008 2.5 OH : 261 259 1,400 1,430 365 370 1.4 PA : 619 619 1,435 1,480 888 916 3.2 TX : 340 348 1,400 1,395 476 485 1.9 VT : 162 161 1,420 1,440 230 232 0.9 VA : 122 120 1,270 1,350 155 162 4.5 WA : 248 246 1,805 1,885 448 464 3.6 WI : 1,370 1,364 1,410 1,405 1,932 1,916 -0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,708 7,760 1,489 1,536 11,481 11,918 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1998-1999 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : From : : : : : : : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 135 1,675 1,755 221 237 7.2 CA : 1,436 1,483 1,590 1,715 2,283 2,543 11.4 FL : 158 156 1,115 1,110 176 173 -1.7 ID : 299 329 1,600 1,680 478 553 15.7 IL : 126 121 1,350 1,330 170 161 -5.3 IN : 138 137 1,300 1,275 179 175 -2.2 IA : 221 215 1,410 1,420 312 305 -2.2 KY : 136 131 965 1,000 131 131 MI : 298 294 1,460 1,495 435 440 1.1 MN : 545 545 1,355 1,380 738 752 1.9 MO : 166 160 1,125 1,140 187 182 -2.7 NM : 218 236 1,610 1,660 351 392 11.7 NY : 702 700 1,320 1,360 927 952 2.7 OH : 262 259 1,310 1,380 343 357 4.1 PA : 620 618 1,380 1,420 856 878 2.6 TX : 341 348 1,285 1,290 438 449 2.5 VT : 161 161 1,335 1,335 215 215 VA : 123 121 1,185 1,315 146 159 8.9 WA : 247 245 1,740 1,805 430 442 2.8 WI : 1,368 1,364 1,325 1,335 1,813 1,821 0.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,697 7,758 1,407 1,459 10,829 11,317 4.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 1999 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 27 81 76 -6.2 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.63 3.48 -4.1 AZ : 132 135 578 641 10.9 AR : 48 44 154 126 -18.2 CA : 1,425 1,472 6,762 7,625 12.8 CO : 83 82 429 428 -0.2 CT : 30 28 128 126 -1.6 DE : 11.0 11.0 37.4 44.0 17.6 FL : 159 158 502 521 3.8 GA : 93 88 310 313 1.0 HI : 8.8 8.6 32.3 31.4 -2.8 ID : 295 323 1,491 1,690 13.3 IL : 127 121 499 472 -5.4 IN : 136 136 533 538 0.9 IA : 222 215 927 908 -2.0 KS : 82 86 305 325 6.6 KY : 138 132 404 388 -4.0 LA : 63 61 156 151 -3.2 ME : 42 41 176 173 -1.7 MD : 86 86 324 341 5.2 MA : 26 24 111 104 -6.3 MI : 303 293 1,376 1,344 -2.3 MN : 550 548 2,236 2,270 1.5 MS : 41 38 121 116 -4.1 MO : 169 160 544 509 -6.4 MT : 18 18 72 76 5.6 NE : 69 74 262 302 15.3 NV : 25 25 118 128 8.5 NH : 21 19 85 79 -7.1 NJ : 19 18 72 69 -4.2 NM : 218 235 1,104 1,157 4.8 NY : 701 702 2,958 3,019 2.1 NC : 74 73 291 289 -0.7 ND : 50 48 174 172 -1.1 OH : 263 259 1,056 1,101 4.3 OK : 92 92 294 294 OR : 89 89 401 413 3.0 PA : 623 615 2,664 2,670 0.2 RI : 2.1 2.0 8.3 7.7 -7.2 SC : 24 23 81 79 -2.5 SD : 102 102 366 375 2.5 TN : 103 95 344 320 -7.0 TX : 347 346 1,234 1,192 -3.4 UT : 90 93 383 412 7.6 VT : 161 161 677 688 1.6 VA : 123 120 438 450 2.7 WA : 247 248 1,348 1,414 4.9 WV : 18 18 69 68 -1.4 WI : 1,366 1,366 5,779 5,724 -1.0 WY : 6.0 6.0 20.4 21.0 2.9 : US 3/ : 9,149 9,166 38,519 39,784 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 27 92 90 -2.2 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.51 3.03 -13.7 AZ : 132 135 676 717 6.1 AR : 46 43 154 120 -22.1 CA : 1,436 1,483 7,020 7,786 10.9 CO : 83 83 421 429 1.9 CT : 30 28 129 126 -2.3 DE : 11.0 11.0 37.3 46.1 23.6 FL : 158 156 546 536 -1.8 GA : 90 88 343 344 0.3 HI : 8.8 8.6 29.5 26.9 -8.8 ID : 299 329 1,473 1,698 15.3 IL : 126 121 517 496 -4.1 IN : 137 137 547 541 -1.1 IA : 224 215 972 939 -3.4 KS : 83 87 320 355 10.9 KY : 136 131 404 403 -0.2 LA : 63 61 176 165 -6.3 ME : 42 41 166 165 -0.6 MD : 86 86 320 364 13.8 MA : 25 24 106 102 -3.8 MI : 299 295 1,343 1,365 1.6 MN : 545 543 2,291 2,322 1.4 MS : 41 38 132 130 -1.5 MO : 166 160 573 562 -1.9 MT : 18 18 73 76 4.1 NE : 70 75 266 310 16.5 NV : 25 25 115 123 7.0 NH : 20 19 79 77 -2.5 NJ : 19 18 70 69 -1.4 NM : 218 236 1,093 1,194 9.2 NY : 702 700 2,879 2,940 2.1 NC : 73 73 312 299 -4.2 ND : 50 48 172 168 -2.3 OH : 262 259 1,062 1,092 2.8 OK : 92 92 304 313 3.0 OR : 88 89 394 408 3.6 PA : 620 618 2,623 2,689 2.5 RI : 2.0 1.9 7.8 7.3 -6.4 SC : 24 23 88 86 -2.3 SD : 102 102 366 385 5.2 TN : 101 95 357 345 -3.4 TX : 341 347 1,345 1,368 1.7 UT : 93 93 381 403 5.8 VT : 161 161 666 668 0.3 VA : 123 121 449 480 6.9 WA : 247 245 1,326 1,368 3.2 WV : 18 18 68 69 1.5 WI : 1,368 1,364 5,630 5,640 0.2 WY : 5.9 6.0 19.5 19.8 1.5 : US 3/ : 9,137 9,178 38,937 40,428 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.18 million head by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 445 183 1 385 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.3 211 102 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 16, 2000. 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