Da 1-1 (3-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 8.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 11.7 billion pounds, up 8.2 percent from production in these same States in February 1999. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to the leap year causes February milk production to be up 4.5 percent on a per day basis. January revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds was up 4.9 percent from January 1999. The January revision represented an increase of 0.2 percent or 24 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,505 pounds for February, 101 pounds above February 1999 without adjusting for the extra day. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 72,000 head more than February 1999 and 3,000 head more than January 2000. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 4,437 40,505 Apr-Jun : 9,155 4,591 42,029 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,768 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,692 8.2 Mar : 7,713 1,585 12,228 Apr : 7,720 1,554 11,998 May : 7,733 1,610 12,447 Jun : 7,740 1,516 11,737 Jul : 7,751 1,498 11,610 Aug : 7,755 1,487 11,534 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,184 1,494 1,557 13,628 14,301 4.9 Feb : 9,123 9,188 1,382 1,485 12,607 13,643 8.2 Mar : 9,141 1,561 14,270 Apr : 9,143 1,524 13,938 May : 9,157 1,579 14,458 Jun : 9,166 1,487 13,633 Jul : 9,167 1,467 13,444 Aug : 9,174 1,456 13,357 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 137 1,835 1,935 242 265 9.5 CA : 1,447 1,496 1,555 1,710 2,250 2,558 13.7 FL : 158 157 1,365 1,425 216 224 3.7 ID : 306 332 1,490 1,620 456 538 18.0 IL : 125 120 1,310 1,480 164 178 8.5 IN : 136 141 1,300 1,380 177 195 10.2 IA : 219 215 1,380 1,500 302 323 7.0 KY : 135 130 985 1,070 133 139 4.5 MI : 292 298 1,405 1,510 410 450 9.8 MN : 545 540 1,385 1,475 755 797 5.6 MO : 162 157 1,140 1,220 185 192 3.8 NM : 223 238 1,615 1,730 360 412 14.4 NY : 702 700 1,320 1,370 927 959 3.5 OH : 260 259 1,310 1,400 341 363 6.5 PA : 615 617 1,375 1,475 846 910 7.6 TX : 341 350 1,430 1,470 488 515 5.5 VT : 162 159 1,290 1,365 209 217 3.8 VA : 122 120 1,205 1,330 147 160 8.8 WA : 248 246 1,695 1,785 420 439 4.5 WI : 1,366 1,356 1,300 1,370 1,776 1,858 4.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,696 7,768 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,692 8.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 137 1,925 1,965 254 269 5.9 CA : 1,444 1,492 1,690 1,815 2,440 2,708 11.0 FL : 158 156 1,415 1,440 224 225 0.4 ID : 304 332 1,660 1,730 505 574 13.7 IL : 125 120 1,430 1,500 179 180 0.6 IN : 137 139 1,360 1,425 186 198 6.5 IA : 220 215 1,515 1,555 333 334 0.3 KY : 135 130 1,050 1,130 142 147 3.5 MI : 291 299 1,520 1,600 442 478 8.1 MN : 545 540 1,505 1,545 820 834 1.7 MO : 164 158 1,230 1,240 202 196 -3.0 NM : 220 237 1,740 1,780 383 422 10.2 NY : 702 700 1,430 1,450 1,004 1,015 1.1 OH : 260 259 1,430 1,470 372 381 2.4 PA : 617 617 1,475 1,520 910 938 3.1 TX : 340 350 1,480 1,500 503 525 4.4 VT : 162 160 1,410 1,485 228 238 4.4 VA : 122 120 1,295 1,425 158 171 8.2 WA : 248 246 1,845 1,900 458 467 2.0 WI : 1,368 1,358 1,415 1,440 1,936 1,956 1.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 1.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.17 million head by more than 1.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.3 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 444 187 1 385 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.3 2.3 211 103 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 17, 2000. 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